2016 NHL Draft Lottery

[hockeyfan1]

Date's all set.  Mark your calendars.  Lottery will take place April 30.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/date-2016-nhl-draft-lottery-revealed/

 

[KW Sluggo]

It is not my intention to hijack this thread but rather than starting a new one, I believe this issue can find a home here.

This lottery simply does not produce the intended result.

This lottery structure was intended to minimize tanking. In practice it has accomplished the opposite.

Prior to the introduction of the current arrangement, you could count on 2 or 3 teams jockeying for the top pick. Occasionally there may have been a 4th team but as a rule just 2 or 3; it should be noted that not all 3 were serious in so doing, some were just bad.

It is one thing to introduce a lottery to break the connection between finishing last and being reward by the first over all pick, it is quite another to de-emphasize finishing last to the point where the last 10 teams now have a reasonable shot at that pick.

The NHL draft lottery has now produced the opposite of what was intended.

We now see 8 to 10 teams in free fall in an attempt to reach a point in the bottom 5 and thereby have an enhanced shot at either the first pick or at least one of the first 3 or 4 picks.

By reducing the odds to 20% for the last place team and by spreading the percentages out rather evenly over the 2nd worst to the 4th worst, the NHL has made the tank target bigger, not smaller.

I suspect it will not really matter because Edmonton will probably get the 1st pick (if the Oilers do it again, I want them buying my Lotto 649 tickets).

 

[Kin]

We now see 8 to 10 teams in free fall in an attempt to reach a point in the bottom 5 and thereby have an enhanced shot at either the first pick or at least one of the first 3 or 4 picks.

Except that's not actually true. Only one team in the bottom half of the league has won fewer than 4 of their last 10 games and it's only that one team(Vancouver) that is on a protracted losing streak. Also, we already know that there aren't any teams that are going to finish within 10 points of how bad Buffalo or Arizona was last year. Calgary, Arizona, Buffalo, Toronto...all have good records over their last 10.

The teams in question aren't in a "free fall". They're just not very good. 

 

[L K]

We now see 8 to 10 teams in free fall in an attempt to reach a point in the bottom 5 and thereby have an enhanced shot at either the first pick or at least one of the first 3 or 4 picks.

Except that's not actually true. Only one team in the bottom half of the league has won fewer than 4 of their last 10 games and it's only that one team(Vancouver) that is on a protracted losing streak. Also, we already know that there aren't any teams that are going to finish within 10 points of how bad Buffalo or Arizona was last year. Calgary, Arizona, Buffalo, Toronto...all have good records over their last 10.

The teams in question aren't in a "free fall". They're just not very good.

I think one thing that is affecting how the standings look is that there aren't any catastrophically bad teams like the last few years.  Buffalo, Edmonton and Arizona have collectively managed to have some of the worst seasons in the history of the league over the last few years.  Teams don't typically finish with 50 points in a year and when they don't the standings look much closer.

 

[hockeyfan1]

NHL Draft Lottery Projections as it stands (updated as per TSN):

 

[hockeyfan1]

The final results:  Draft Lottery projections (as per points pct.):

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/nhl-draft-lottery

 

[hockeyfan1]

Auston Matthews (hopefully) here we come!

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

The final results:  Draft Lottery projections (as per points pct.):

http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/nhl-draft-lottery

So a 45% chance that Matthews ends up in either Toronto, Edmonton, or Vancouver.  A 48.5% chance he ends up in a Canadian city other than Toronto.  And a 68.5% chance he ends up somewhere in Canada.

 

[ZBBM]

It's actually 3 lotteries!  We need to lose all 3 to fall as low as 4th.

2016 NHL Draft Lottery

Beginning in 2016, the Draft Lottery will be utilized to assign the top three drafting slots in the NHL Draft, an expansion over previous years when the Draft Lottery was used to determine the winner of the first overall selection only.

Three draws will be held: the 1st Lottery draw will determine the Club selecting first overall, the 2nd Lottery draw will determine the Club selecting second overall and the 3rd Lottery draw will determine the club selecting third overall.

As a result of this change, the team earning the fewest points during the regular season will no longer be guaranteed, at worst, the second overall pick. That club could fall as low as fourth overall.

The allocation of odds for the 1st Lottery draw will be the same as outlined above for the 2015 NHL Draft Lottery. The odds for the remaining teams will increase on a proportionate basis for the 2nd Lottery draw, based on which Club wins the 1st Lottery draw, and again for the 3rd Lottery draw, based on which Club wins the 2nd Lottery draw.

The 11 Clubs not selected in the Draft Lottery will be assigned NHL Draft selections 4 through 14, in inverse order of regular-season points.

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

It's actually 3 lotteries!  We need to lose all 3 to fall as low as 4th.

2016 NHL Draft Lottery

Beginning in 2016, the Draft Lottery will be utilized to assign the top three drafting slots in the NHL Draft, an expansion over previous years when the Draft Lottery was used to determine the winner of the first overall selection only.

Three draws will be held: the 1st Lottery draw will determine the Club selecting first overall, the 2nd Lottery draw will determine the Club selecting second overall and the 3rd Lottery draw will determine the club selecting third overall.

As a result of this change, the team earning the fewest points during the regular season will no longer be guaranteed, at worst, the second overall pick. That club could fall as low as fourth overall.

The allocation of odds for the 1st Lottery draw will be the same as outlined above for the 2015 NHL Draft Lottery. The odds for the remaining teams will increase on a proportionate basis for the 2nd Lottery draw, based on which Club wins the 1st Lottery draw, and again for the 3rd Lottery draw, based on which Club wins the 2nd Lottery draw.

The 11 Clubs not selected in the Draft Lottery will be assigned NHL Draft selections 4 through 14, in inverse order of regular-season points.

Who didn't know that...?

 

[L K]

It's actually 3 lotteries!  We need to lose all 3 to fall as low as 4th.

2016 NHL Draft Lottery

Beginning in 2016, the Draft Lottery will be utilized to assign the top three drafting slots in the NHL Draft, an expansion over previous years when the Draft Lottery was used to determine the winner of the first overall selection only.

Three draws will be held: the 1st Lottery draw will determine the Club selecting first overall, the 2nd Lottery draw will determine the Club selecting second overall and the 3rd Lottery draw will determine the club selecting third overall.

As a result of this change, the team earning the fewest points during the regular season will no longer be guaranteed, at worst, the second overall pick. That club could fall as low as fourth overall.

The allocation of odds for the 1st Lottery draw will be the same as outlined above for the 2015 NHL Draft Lottery. The odds for the remaining teams will increase on a proportionate basis for the 2nd Lottery draw, based on which Club wins the 1st Lottery draw, and again for the 3rd Lottery draw, based on which Club wins the 2nd Lottery draw.

The 11 Clubs not selected in the Draft Lottery will be assigned NHL Draft selections 4 through 14, in inverse order of regular-season points.

Who didn't know that...?

Yep.  Worst case scenario teams 14, and 13 win the first two draft draws.  The Leafs draft lottery percentages would be: 20% (Rd1), 20.2% (Rd2), 20.6% (Rd3)

If the 2nd and 3rd place teams win the lottery it would be:
20% (Rd1), 23.1% (Rd2), 26.7% (Rd3)

 

[ZBBM]

It's actually 3 lotteries!  We need to lose all 3 to fall as low as 4th.

2016 NHL Draft Lottery

Beginning in 2016, the Draft Lottery will be utilized to assign the top three drafting slots in the NHL Draft, an expansion over previous years when the Draft Lottery was used to determine the winner of the first overall selection only.

Three draws will be held: the 1st Lottery draw will determine the Club selecting first overall, the 2nd Lottery draw will determine the Club selecting second overall and the 3rd Lottery draw will determine the club selecting third overall.

As a result of this change, the team earning the fewest points during the regular season will no longer be guaranteed, at worst, the second overall pick. That club could fall as low as fourth overall.

The allocation of odds for the 1st Lottery draw will be the same as outlined above for the 2015 NHL Draft Lottery. The odds for the remaining teams will increase on a proportionate basis for the 2nd Lottery draw, based on which Club wins the 1st Lottery draw, and again for the 3rd Lottery draw, based on which Club wins the 2nd Lottery draw.

The 11 Clubs not selected in the Draft Lottery will be assigned NHL Draft selections 4 through 14, in inverse order of regular-season points.

Who didn't know that...?

You? 

 

[Jolly good show chaps]

The thing I don't get is people saying there's n% chance of drafting 2nd, 3rd and 4th but based on what the above says surely the odds are variable depending on who wins each lottery if that impacts the subsequent order?

I'm not a maths person at all I'm afraid so more than happy to be put right on something I am unsure about.

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

It's actually 3 lotteries!  We need to lose all 3 to fall as low as 4th.

2016 NHL Draft Lottery

Beginning in 2016, the Draft Lottery will be utilized to assign the top three drafting slots in the NHL Draft, an expansion over previous years when the Draft Lottery was used to determine the winner of the first overall selection only.

Three draws will be held: the 1st Lottery draw will determine the Club selecting first overall, the 2nd Lottery draw will determine the Club selecting second overall and the 3rd Lottery draw will determine the club selecting third overall.

As a result of this change, the team earning the fewest points during the regular season will no longer be guaranteed, at worst, the second overall pick. That club could fall as low as fourth overall.

The allocation of odds for the 1st Lottery draw will be the same as outlined above for the 2015 NHL Draft Lottery. The odds for the remaining teams will increase on a proportionate basis for the 2nd Lottery draw, based on which Club wins the 1st Lottery draw, and again for the 3rd Lottery draw, based on which Club wins the 2nd Lottery draw.

The 11 Clubs not selected in the Draft Lottery will be assigned NHL Draft selections 4 through 14, in inverse order of regular-season points.

Who didn't know that...?

You?

I figured it has been common knowledge for at least the past year.

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

The thing I don't get is people saying there's n% chance of drafting 2nd, 3rd and 4th but based on what the above says surely the odds are variable depending on who wins each lottery if that impacts the subsequent order?

I think/suspect some if not all of those calculations have been based on running thousands of simulations of the lottery using its exact probabilities and tabulating the overall percentages that way, based on how often various results occurred.

 

[McGarnagle]

I didn't know that. But I'm secure enough in my ignorance to admit it.

 

[ZBBM]

It's actually 3 lotteries!  We need to lose all 3 to fall as low as 4th.

2016 NHL Draft Lottery

Beginning in 2016, the Draft Lottery will be utilized to assign the top three drafting slots in the NHL Draft, an expansion over previous years when the Draft Lottery was used to determine the winner of the first overall selection only.

Three draws will be held: the 1st Lottery draw will determine the Club selecting first overall, the 2nd Lottery draw will determine the Club selecting second overall and the 3rd Lottery draw will determine the club selecting third overall.

As a result of this change, the team earning the fewest points during the regular season will no longer be guaranteed, at worst, the second overall pick. That club could fall as low as fourth overall.

The allocation of odds for the 1st Lottery draw will be the same as outlined above for the 2015 NHL Draft Lottery. The odds for the remaining teams will increase on a proportionate basis for the 2nd Lottery draw, based on which Club wins the 1st Lottery draw, and again for the 3rd Lottery draw, based on which Club wins the 2nd Lottery draw.

The 11 Clubs not selected in the Draft Lottery will be assigned NHL Draft selections 4 through 14, in inverse order of regular-season points.

Who didn't know that...?

You?

I figured it has been common knowledge for at least the past year.

What I didn't know was that they rejigger the odds the 2nd & 3rd go-rounds.  I thought they just kept pulling balls out of the basket based on the round 1 odds.

 

[herman]

The odds adjust by virtue of there being one less team in the pool per lottery. Each team's ball count stays the same, but the total number of balls is reduced as the lottery winner's balls are removed.

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

I didn't know that. But I'm secure enough in my ignorance to admit it.

I guess I was wrong about it, sorry.

As an aside, for the past year, it's really got under my skin every time I've heard and read people talking about the Leafs or any team for that matter getting or hoping for "a lottery pick", which generally used to mean finishing bottom 5 and having a chance at the #1 overall pick.  With the present lottery system, it's now a virtually meaningless term, as any non-playoff team has "a lottery pick", and in fact has 3 of them for shots at picks #1, #2 and #3.  It's just a sliding scale of odds of winning those picks in the multiple lotteries.

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

This might help a little:

From:  http://theleafsnation.com/2016/4/9/leafs-secure-best-chance-at-1st-overall-pick-auston-matthews