A funny thing happened on the way to the rebuild ...

[ZBBM]

... when, against all odds, the Leafs grabbed the final spot in the playoffs.

Could we be reading this headline next April?  Of course it isn't likely, but is anyone here willing to guarantee it's impossible?

I could see a very narrow path where it happens:

1.  Babcock gets maximum effort out of a bunch of highly motivated auditionees game in and game out.
2.  With his carte blanche and no need to deliver an exciting on-ice product, Babcock installs a defense-first system that aims to keep most games low-scoring and boooorrrriinng.
3.  Bernier and/or Reimer find their footing when they aren't being peppered by 40 shots each game.

In other words, the Leafs channel the Coyotes recipe.

Would I bet my furnace or snowmobile on this?  No.  But I would bet both on Babcock's team not "tanking" -- that's not going to happen.  IMO it's at least conceivable that we really could be facing the acid test of management's resolve come trade deadline time.

 

[Peter D.]

I think this would have been much more possible had the Leafs kept Kessel.  I think Babcock will have this team playing better than may be expected, but it's tough to look at the roster as currently constructed and thinking it has much hope of penetrating the top eight in the conference.

 

[Bill_Berg]

I wouldn't rule them out completely. Too many new faces, including Babcock's, but I agree that it's a long shot.

 

[L K]

I doubt it in general but on the 28th of December the Leafs were 20-12-3 despite playing horrible hockey.  If Babcock has them playing a better defensive system and a bunch of guys have rebound years at the same time it is possible.  It's very doubtful, but possible.  I think we see the Leafs trade guys off at the deadline anyway unless the Leafs are running away with the league under divine protection so even a competitive team will likely take a big kick in the pants in terms of a stretch run.

 

[Bill_Berg]

I doubt it in general but on the 28th of December the Leafs were 20-12-3 despite playing horrible hockey.  If Babcock has them playing a better defensive system and a bunch of guys have rebound years at the same time it is possible.  It's very doubtful, but possible.  I think we see the Leafs trade guys off at the deadline anyway unless the Leafs are running away with the league under divine protection so even a competitive team will likely take a big kick in the pants in terms of a stretch run.

You think they'll sell if they're in a playoff spot at the deadline? I'm not so sure.

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

I doubt it in general but on the 28th of December the Leafs were 20-12-3 despite playing horrible hockey.  If Babcock has them playing a better defensive system and a bunch of guys have rebound years at the same time it is possible.  It's very doubtful, but possible.  I think we see the Leafs trade guys off at the deadline anyway unless the Leafs are running away with the league under divine protection so even a competitive team will likely take a big kick in the pants in terms of a stretch run.

You think they'll sell if they're in a playoff spot at the deadline? I'm not so sure.

I'm positive they'd sell at the deadline if they're in a playoff position, at least for reasonable returns.  The management group knows the team isn't going anywhere in the playoffs, and it would be a waste to hang on to players with expiring contracts.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Yeah losing Kessel was really the final nail in the coffin for any playoff hopes I think. There's a good chance that we don't have anybody who will crack 60 points this season, and maybe only a couple of guys get to 50 (JVR and Kadri). We may end up leading the league in guys in the 40-point range, but I doubt that'll be enough.

I think that two things would need to happen, one of which you've touched on a bit. First, we'd have to get Vezina-ish type goaltending. Bernier and Reimer would basically have to repeat their career seasons, and that's a pretty tall order.

Second, 8th place in the East will have to be easily attainable. By that I mean the race for eighth can't be a sprint. Last season the Penguins took 8th place with 98 points. There's no way that this is a 98-point team, so the bar will have to drop back down to the 92/93 point area that we've generally been used to. I wonder if Buffalo being as bad as they were last season gave some teams an extra bump in that regard.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I'm positive they'd sell at the deadline if they're in a playoff position, at least for reasonable returns.  The management group knows the team isn't going anywhere in the playoffs, and it would be a waste to hang on to players with expiring contracts.

Yeah they won't abandon the process that they've worked so hard to establish for a pipedream. Maybe they don't completely strip things down, but they'll still be sellers as opposed to buyers.

 

[herman]

First sign of early success and other teams will come knocking for the players who are contributing factors. I think we'll sell our way out of playoff contention even before the deadline.

As Heroic Shrimp pointed out, with so many expiring contracts, it would be an even bigger waste of a season if we didn't sell.

 

[Fanatic]

I think there is a much better chance they finish in 30th overall than make the playoffs. Leafs, Yotes and Canes should battle for the basement all year.

 

[Bill_Berg]

I doubt it in general but on the 28th of December the Leafs were 20-12-3 despite playing horrible hockey.  If Babcock has them playing a better defensive system and a bunch of guys have rebound years at the same time it is possible.  It's very doubtful, but possible.  I think we see the Leafs trade guys off at the deadline anyway unless the Leafs are running away with the league under divine protection so even a competitive team will likely take a big kick in the pants in terms of a stretch run.

You think they'll sell if they're in a playoff spot at the deadline? I'm not so sure.

I'm positive they'd sell at the deadline if they're in a playoff position, at least for reasonable returns.  The management group knows the team isn't going anywhere in the playoffs, and it would be a waste to hang on to players with expiring contracts.

I suppose the player's values will be that much higher. But I fear the temptation to go for the playoffs will be too strong. It will be a good chance for them to prove their commitment.

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

I'd also add that if the East is so weak that it has the worse-than-mediocre Leafs in a playoff spot, then it would also be reasonably likely that a bunch of teams would be knocking on the door of the 8th seed.  So, potentially, less sellers and more buyers makes it even more important to be a seller to capitalize on the trade market.

 

[Kin]

Yes. I'm willing to guarantee it's impossible. And Nik's Guarantees are famous for their reliability.

 

[Zee]

If the Leafs are out of the lottery running post January then "plan B" kicks into high gear.  Vesa Toskala is brought out of retirement and plays every game down the stretch.

 

[Frank E]

I don't think there is any reasonable chance that the Leafs don't sell-off their impending UFAs at the deadline, or sooner even.  If the team was in contention for a playoff spot, it would be a result of some guys having pretty great seasons which would positively affect their trade return.

 

[ZBBM]

Yes. I'm willing to guarantee it's impossible. And Nik's Guarantees are famous for their reliability.

Sorry, but you are the Diet Coke of Guarantors.

 

[Kin]

Yes. I'm willing to guarantee it's impossible. And Nik's Guarantees are famous for their reliability.

Sorry, but you are the Diet Coke of Guarantors.

I will have you know I'm the Diet Store Brand Cola of Guarantors, thank you very much.

 

[hobarth]

Florida made the playoffs recently with Versteeg on the 1st line, if that team was capable of making the playoffs any team can.

 

[Kin]

I really sometimes think some people got a very different message from Babcock than I did at his press conference. To me, not only was he pretty realistic about the immediate future but he was well on-board with the long term plans of the organization.

 

[hobarth]

I don't expect Babcock to deliberately tank, I expect he's going to try to get the max from whatever he's given but at the same time he want's to minimize expectations as a means to take pressure off both himself and the players.

However Tippet and Trotz were able to guide their teams with no name forwards and reasonable to great defenses into the playoffs because they were able to get their players to buy into a plausible game plan, not an RC inspired swarm. They did this in the generally accepted tougher Western division.

It's going to be an interesting year and Babcock could be the greatest obstacle to TO for getting that high end draft choice, we shall see