Ducks @ Leafs - Dec. 16th, 7:30pm - TSN4, Fan 590

[CarltonTheBear]

@

21-6-5, 47 pts | 18-9-3, 39 pts

Projected Lines

Smith Pelly-Getzlaf-Bourque Beleskey-Kesler-Palmieri Rakell-Cogliano-Silfverberg Maroon-Thompson-Jackman Lovejoy-Fowler Lindholm-Robak Vatanen-Stoner Andersen ​

JVR-Bozak-Kessel Winnik-Kadri-Santorelli     Lupul-Holland-Clarkson    Booth-Smith-Panik Phaneuf-Franson Gardiner-Holzer Rielly-Robidas Bernier​

Scratches

Mark Fistric ​

Leo Komarov  Brandon Kozun​

Game Notes

ANA
?Frederik Andersen will make his 19th straight start for the Ducks
?Ilya Bryzgalov will join the Ducks but won't make his season debut for them until later this week

TOR
?Bernier likely gets the start for the Leafs

Injuries

?Dany Heatley - Groin - Questionable Tuesday ?Francois Beauchemin - Upper Body - Injured Reserve ?Corey Perry - Knee - Injured Reserve ?Eric Brewer - Foot - Injured Reserve ?John Gibson - Groin - Injured Reserve ?Sheldon Souray - Wrist - Injured Reserve​

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?Roman Polak - Knee - Injured Reserve
?Leo Komarov - Concussion - Day to day                    ​

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Statistical Leaders

Perry - 14 Beleskey - 14 Getzlaf - 10 Getzlaf - 23 Vatanen - 15 Kesler - 14 Getzlaf - 33 Kesler - 24 Vatanen - 23 Lindholm - +12 Jackman - 44 Kesler - 55.6% Beauchemin - 22:43 Andersen - 17 Andersen - 2.38 Andersen - .915​

G A P +/- PIM FO% TOI/G W GAA SA%​

15 - Kessel 13 - JVR 11 - Bozak 16 - Kessel 16 - Santorelli 15 - Phaneuf 31 - Kessel 26 - JVR 25 - Bozak +17 - Santorelli 50 - Phaneuf 55.3% - Bozak 23:34 - Phaneuf      12 - Bernier 2.55 - Bernier .920 - Bernier​

Season Overview

21 6 5 (1st)        47 (13th)      2.84 (11th)      2.50 (16th)  18.4% (15th)  81.3% (15th)      30.1 (14th)      29.0 (8th)  52.0% 11-3-2 8-2-0 Won 7​

W L OT P G/G GA/G PP% PK% S/G SA/G FO% A | H L10 Streak​

18 9 3 39        (10th) 3.37      (1st) 2.80      (21st) 20.7%  (11th) 83.6%  (10th) 30.4      (14th) 33.5      (26th) 50.2%  (15th) 13-7-0 8-1-1 Won 5​

Streaks

Getzlaf - 14 pts in 8 GP​	HOT​	13 pts in 10 GP - Santorelli 10 pts in 9 GP - Kadri 9 pts in 8 GP - JVR 8 pts in 8 GP - Kessel​
Smith-Pelly - 0 pts in 4 GP​	COLD  ​

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0 goals in 7 GP - Bozak
0 pts in 4 GP - Gardiner​

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Stream Options

http://www.reddit.com/r/NHLstreams
http://vaughnlive.tv/leafstreamer
http://ourleafs.blogspot.ca/
​

 

[crazyperfectdevil]

well..someone's winning streak is going to end

 

[Kessel Run]

Ducks bring the mumps to town.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

well..someone's winning streak is going to end

The Ducks have more wins on their current streak than they do regulation loses. That's kind of crazy.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

well..someone's winning streak is going to end

The Ducks have more wins on their current streak than they do regulation loses. That's kind of crazy.

And Leafs have same number of wins on current streak as regulation losses, right?  If 9-1-1 is considered their streak.

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

The Ducks don't really seem to have a #1/2/3 D pairing FWIW.

Vatanen/Fowler/Lindholm both play around 18-19 minutes ES a game and 3-5 minutes PP/SH.

All I mean to say is, they all seem to see equal ice.

This will be a tough game. The Ducks have everything. Speed, size, toughness, a mobile D and good goaltending.

From the games I've watched (Vatanen is on my fantasy team  ) Vatanen can be exposed with a hard forecheck. The 4th line (because they have  a lot more skill than the other 4th line) and the Winnik-Kadri-Santo line will be key. Anything else will be gravy.

Our D will be in trouble.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

A Toronto win tonight and loses by both Detroit and Tampa (*and Montreal*) would technically put the Leafs 1st in the Atlantic.

Strange times indeed.

 

[Highlander]

Where is my valium bottle?

 

[ZBBM]

I'm skeptical that this team has done anything like "turning the corner," although I have to say the last 10 games have been impressive.  If they can beat this Ducks team, I'll hand it to them, it would be the best homestand I can remember.

 

[bustaheims]

I'm skeptical that this team has done anything like "turning the corner," although I have to say the last 10 games have been impressive.  If they can beat this Ducks team, I'll hand it to them, it would be the best homestand I can remember.

The second Detroit game was really the only game out of the last 4 where I thought they were the better team. They went against the percentages/rode some unsustainable trends in the rest. Good on them and such, but, I also don't think they've turned the corner or anything, either.

 

[Highlander]

Where the heck is Nutman, where did he go?  I thought he would be in cloud Kukuland right now.

 

[herman]

Ducks bring the mumps to town.

This is what I'm most concerned about.

I'm skeptical that this team has done anything like "turning the corner," although I have to say the last 10 games have been impressive.  If they can beat this Ducks team, I'll hand it to them, it would be the best homestand I can remember.

The second Detroit game was really the only game out of the last 4 where I thought they were the better team. They went against the percentages/rode some unsustainable trends in the rest. Good on them and such, but, I also don't think they've turned the corner or anything, either.

I think half the team has 'turned the corner'. The Bozak line has fallen off the map and should be cut down to third line minutes until Kessel heals whatever is ailing him (looks like back/shoulder issues). The home side match up advantage might hold us in good stead if we can neutralize the Ducks' top line and beat them in secondary scoring.

 

[Highlander]

I agree with Herman, even more so, let Kessel have a few games off to recharge, he took a real beating about two weeks ago and is not up to optimum.  Outside of Ironman rights what is the use of playing this guy at half speed.

 

[freer]

I agree with Herman, even more so, let Kessel have a few games off to recharge, he took a real beating about two weeks ago and is not up to optimum.  Outside of Ironman rights what is the use of playing this guy at half speed.

I honestly thought that the first line was skate really well on Sunday. Bozak had like 5 shots. At least the best I have seen them in about a week

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I agree with Herman, even more so, let Kessel have a few games off to recharge, he took a real beating about two weeks ago and is not up to optimum.  Outside of Ironman rights what is the use of playing this guy at half speed.

I honestly thought that the first line was skate really well on Sunday. Bozak had like 5 shots. At least the best I have seen them in about a week

Think Kessel set Bozak up about 3 times for point blank chances.

 

[herman]

I honestly thought that the first line was skate really well on Sunday. Bozak had like 5 shots. At least the best I have seen them in about a week

Skating hasn't been an issue. Skating to the right places on the other hand...

Kessel's been peeling off of rushes where he used to cut across for a shot through a screen of legs, or bust around the outside for a shortside snipe. I assume coaching staff has been on everyone's case about hanging onto the puck after crossing the line and setting up for a cycle, rather than a low percentage shot into the crest and a whistle, because the other lines have been doing it.

One of the problems is that Kessel doesn't usually have anyone to pass to when he crosses the line; he often crosses over to the shooting side (LW) on top of the circle for a pass back to a trailer, which closes off taking the puck deeper. The other problem is that he and his linemates are often gassed by the time they take it up the ice because their soft stickchecks in the defensive zone leave them chasing the play in their own end for 80% of their shift time.

 

[bustaheims]

I think half the team has 'turned the corner'. The Bozak line has fallen off the map and should be cut down to third line minutes until Kessel heals whatever is ailing him (looks like back/shoulder issues). The home side match up advantage might hold us in good stead if we can neutralize the Ducks' top line and beat them in secondary scoring.

I'm obviously less convinced. A lot of it has to do with the fact that they're still riding on a exceptionally high shooting percentage, and that's due to normalize some. So, even if/when the top line gets things going again, at some point soon, the rest of the lineup's production is going to slow down - possibly significantly and almost certainly more than the increase from the top line. I'll admit that, for the most part, the other lines are playing better than their counterparts from last season, but, that's also a pretty low bar. The goaltending has also obviously been excellent recently, but, we've all seen how quickly that can change.

We've also seen this from the Leafs recently. They had a 9-1-1 stretch heading into the Olympic break last season, which also came after a some humbling losses, and involved the team scoring at an unsustainable rate and relying on exceptional goaltending more than they should be comfortable with. Obviously, they don't have a break to the extent of the Olympics on the horizon (though, how much that really played into things is very much debatable), but, there are still a number of alarming similarities and their possession rates are trending in the wrong direction. While I don't think this team will completely fall off the cliff like last season's did, I'd still caution against reading too much into their recent success. This coming road heavy stretch leading into the All Star Game should give us a real idea as to whether or not this team has really turned any corners.

 

[Highlander]

I just found out something that doesnt bode well for tonight. We have not lost to the Ducks since October 21, 2008

 

[crazyperfectdevil]

I just found out something that doesnt bode well for tonight. We have not lost to the Ducks since October 21, 2008

and that would have been true the last time we played them too

 

[herman]

I'm obviously less convinced. A lot of it has to do with the fact that they're still riding on a exceptionally high shooting percentage, and that's due to normalize some. So, even if/when the top line gets things going again, at some point soon, the rest of the lineup's production is going to slow down - possibly significantly and almost certainly more than the increase from the top line. I'll admit that, for the most part, the other lines are playing better than their counterparts from last season, but, that's also a pretty low bar. The goaltending has also obviously been excellent recently, but, we've all seen how quickly that can change.

We've also seen this from the Leafs recently. They had a 9-1-1 stretch heading into the Olympic break last season, which also came after a some humbling losses, and involved the team scoring at an unsustainable rate and relying on exceptional goaltending more than they should be comfortable with. Obviously, they don't have a break to the extent of the Olympics on the horizon (though, how much that really played into things is very much debatable), but, there are still a number of alarming similarities and their possession rates are trending in the wrong direction. While I don't think this team will completely fall off the cliff like last season's did, I'd still caution against reading too much into their recent success. This coming road heavy stretch leading into the All Star Game should give us a real idea as to whether or not this team has really turned any corners.

I respect your view of the game as I have since I was an unregistered lurker. I had already written off this season when Nonis and Carlyle were left at their respective helms, so any success they're registering now on the scoreboard is gravy.

There are promising signs nonetheless, though many of those promising signs are the ones playing for next year's contracts. I've always wondered about the PDO regression that has yet to impact the Leafs substantially in recent years, barring goaltender injury. The one sign that stands out to me is how most players are now listening when the coaches talk about how it's not about the win itself, but how you go about winning.

So I think we'll still take our lumps heading into the break, but with more wheels that aren't flat on this year's 18-wheeler, we won't be down and out by February this time around.