Gardiner: Where's he heading, career-wise?

[ZBBM]

Watching last night it struck me that we haven't been talking much about Gardiner this year -- perhaps a good sign.  Most nights, to me, I don't notice him a lot one way or the other.  Perhaps also a good sign ... but OTOH it would be nice to see more scoring from him.

This is entirely impressionistic so maybe some of the advanced stats guys can weigh in with numbers to push the conversation one way or the other.

Anyway, I mainly started this thread to see if people have thoughts about Jake.

 

[Kin]

I think he's a good player with valuable skills but I also think that he's established that he's probably not going to be a star at any point. I don't think the Leafs have to move him but given his age and relative value he's definitely someone I think the Leafs should be open to trading.

Just as an example after CtB compared Travis Hamonic to him I started thinking that if the reports about what the Islanders want(a solid NHL defenseman) and what they're being offered(younger players) I thought the Leafs might be a good third team in that scenario to get Hamonic from the Islanders and get picks/prospects from wherever Hamonic goes.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I think that he's starting to really settle into the role or playing style that he'll be most effective at in the NHL. His early years almost remind me of when Jay Bouwmeester broke into the league. Everyone saw such a smooth-skating defenceman who could move the puck and immediately figured that he would be a big-time point producer and powerplay quarterback. And he was criticized often for not being that type of defenceman for a number of years. Now nobody thinks of him that way but he's still a very effective two-way/shutdown defenceman. I don't think that Gardiner's as good as J-Bo but there's definitely a lot of similarities there.

Anyway I might pop back in with some more thoughts when I have time but I will say he should still be producing more points than he is right now. I mean Polak is currently outscoring him this year. He should be able to put up 30-40 a season.

 

[brothert]

The last thing I think of with Gardiner is "shutdown" defenseman.  He is a smooth skating, puck retrieval/outlet pass type.  Essentially a non physical d-man.  Reminds me of a Kaberle-lite, without the playmaking sense that Kaberle had.  Has all the skills to be more except maybe what it takes between the ears.  He's a solid "plug" in the lineup and a journeyman d man on any team.

 

[Boston Leaf]

hmm i thought he was pretty bad last night myself

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I think that he's starting to really settle into the role or playing style that he'll be most effective at in the NHL. His early years almost remind me of when Jay Bouwmeester broke into the league. Everyone saw such a smooth-skating defenceman who could move the puck and immediately figured that he would be a big-time point producer and powerplay quarterback. And he was criticized often for not being that type of defenceman for a number of years. Now nobody thinks of him that way but he's still a very effective two-way/shutdown defenceman. I don't think that Gardiner's as good as J-Bo but there's definitely a lot of similarities there.

Anyway I might pop back in with some more thoughts when I have time but I will say he should still be producing more points than he is right now. I mean Polak is currently outscoring him this year. He should be able to put up 30-40 a season.

I don't know why he doesn't have more points, nothing really seems off about his game which you would point towards.  Maybe getting unlucky in terms of PP points?  He's getting a similar rate of shots to a year ago.

 

[herman]

I don't know why he doesn't have more points, nothing really seems off about his game which you would point towards.  Maybe getting unlucky in terms of PP points?  He's getting a similar rate of shots to a year ago.

I recall Babcock saying something about a month ago about how he's held back his defense from jumping into the play in the early goings of learning the system.

Can't seem to find it at the moment.

 

[Tigger]

I thought he's been much more physical overall while defending, better stick too.

 

[bustaheims]

I thought he's been much more physical overall while defending, better stick too.

Agreed. He's never going to throw Chris Pronger type hits, but he's still shown the ability to include a physical edge to his game.

 

[Kin]

Keep in mind that at this point of the season the difference between what Gardiner's scored and what he would have to have scored to be on pace for his career high in points is 4(and some change). When you add up all of the factors that might go into that from a little bit less PP time(and ice time in general) to the forward group being generally worse than last year to just random chance I think you're still well with the margin where there's not much to read into yet.

 

[ZBBM]

Jonas Siegel, a frequent visitor to this site, weighs in in his official capacity at TSN:

Once wavy, his performance has been smoother. That choppy decision-making of the past has improved, too. Gardiner is admittedly less erratic these days; far less prone to the glaring errors that frequently wedged him into Toronto?s spotlight and Carlyle?s bad books.

?His game has really, I think, taken a lot of steps in a positive direction,? Dion Phaneuf, Gardiner?s partner this season, said. ?He?s growing his game.?

Gardiner, who led the Leafs in ice time Tuesday against Tampa, thinks he?s making better decisions ? both with the puck and without it ? and avoiding any long spells of poor play. He?s had an even year thus far under new Leafs? coach Mike Babcock. He?s been boasting of more confidence since he start of training camp, some of that owing to Babcock and some to turning a page on the misery of the last season.

Here and there, he says, he needs a reminder to stiffen in the defensive zone and Babcock sometimes gets on him to go back stronger for pucks and avoid being lazy.

http://www.tsn.ca/more-consistent-gardiner-still-an-unknown-quantity-for-leafs-1.410323

 

[herman]

Jonas Siegel, a frequent visitor to this site, weighs in in his official capacity at TSN:
http://www.tsn.ca/more-consistent-gardiner-still-an-unknown-quantity-for-leafs-1.410323

I think this is the money quote that describes what we're seeing (and what we're not hearing) with respect to Gardiner:

?I think this year it?s a combination of things, me making better decisions and also having more confidence with the puck. The system also helps, too. You know exactly where guys are going to be all the time so it?s a lot easier to make plays.?

That structure has benefited the sometimes freewheeling defender. He knows now where teammates are going to be all the time, which means he knows where the puck should go long before he gets it.

His decision making was derided in years past. A lot of that had to do with him being required to make those on-the-fly decisions in the first place because he was trying to pass to free-range forwards at the other blue line most of the time.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Gardiner's WOWY stats for this season: http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1513&withagainst=true&season=2015-16&sit=5v5

Of the 10 players Gardiner has played with the most, all 10 have their possession numbers drop when playing without Gardiner on the ice. Some of them by pretty significant numbers.

When Gardiner and Phaneuf are together (318:38 TOI) their CF% is 53.2. When Phaneuf is without Gardiner (145:37 TOI) it's 44.8

When Gardiner and Kadri are together (149:51 TOI) their CF% is 56.6. When Kadri is without Gardiner (260:30 TOI) it's 49.1. Komarov goes from 62.9 to 50.0 and JVR from 60.8 to 53.8 in similar times. Parenteau goes from 52.6 to 46.3. Holland from 57.1 to 50.2

Some WOWYs from his fellow defenceman (and this is where we start dealing with small sample sizes as he's primarily played with Phaneuf): Harrington goes from 59.6 to 50.0. Hunwick from 65.0 to 44.7. Rielly from 66.7 to 46.7. That last one is especially a SS as 51-44 were only together for 9:11.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Jonas Siegel, a frequent visitor to this site, weighs in in his official capacity at TSN:
http://www.tsn.ca/more-consistent-gardiner-still-an-unknown-quantity-for-leafs-1.410323

I think this is the money quote that describes what we're seeing (and what we're not hearing) with respect to Gardiner:

?I think this year it?s a combination of things, me making better decisions and also having more confidence with the puck. The system also helps, too. You know exactly where guys are going to be all the time so it?s a lot easier to make plays.?

That structure has benefited the sometimes freewheeling defender. He knows now where teammates are going to be all the time, which means he knows where the puck should go long before he gets it.

His decision making was derided in years past. A lot of that had to do with him being required to make those on-the-fly decisions in the first place because he was trying to pass to free-range forwards at the other blue line most of the time.

Scott Cullen from TSN also quoted a link to that article on Twitter and posted a link to this showing Gardiner's 5v5 rank among all D with 3000 minutes played since 2012 in terms of CF% RelTM.  That stat is basically Gardiner's CF% minus his teammates' CF% over that time, and higher is better.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Scott Cullen from TSN also quoted a link to that article on Twitter and posted a link to this showing Gardiner's 5v5 rank among all D with 3000 minutes played since 2012 in terms of CF% RelTM.  That stat is basically Gardiner's CF% minus his teammates' CF% over that time, and higher is better.

He's ranked 8th on that list (people hate clicking links man )

Even better, in the corsi-against portion of that stat he ranks 5th among all defencemen there. That means that there's a very, very significant drop in shots directed at the Leafs net when he's on the ice. That's largely where the whole "maybe he's not terrible defensively" idea comes from.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Scott Cullen from TSN also quoted a link to that article on Twitter and posted a link to this showing Gardiner's 5v5 rank among all D with 3000 minutes played since 2012 in terms of CF% RelTM.  That stat is basically Gardiner's CF% minus his teammates' CF% over that time, and higher is better.

He's ranked 8th on that list (people hate clicking links man )

But it's so much better when you click it and see the comparable names.

 

[herman]

Scott Cullen from TSN also quoted a link to that article on Twitter and posted a link to this showing Gardiner's 5v5 rank among all D with 3000 minutes played since 2012 in terms of CF% RelTM.  That stat is basically Gardiner's CF% minus his teammates' CF% over that time, and higher is better.

There was an article in the off-season re: Gardiner that called him (and I'm paraphrasing a bit) Muzzin-lite.
http://thehockeywriters.com/how-good-is-jake-gardiner/

I've also called Rielly Diet Doughty before too, so I wouldn't mind seeing those two anchor the top pairing next year (if we have the luxury to do so).

 

[herman]

Scott Cullen from TSN also quoted a link to that article on Twitter and posted a link to this showing Gardiner's 5v5 rank among all D with 3000 minutes played since 2012 in terms of CF% RelTM.  That stat is basically Gardiner's CF% minus his teammates' CF% over that time, and higher is better.

He's ranked 8th on that list (people hate clicking links man )

But it's so much better when you click it and see the comparable names.

I clicked it, and reversed the sort order and saw those names too

 

[CarltonTheBear]

But it's so much better when you click it and see the comparable names.

This is true.

*clicks again*

*swoons again*

 

[Bullfrog]

Fine! I'll click the link.