How to know when to stop tanking?

[groundskeeper willie]

This is a bit of a theoretical question that obviously has no one right or wrong answer, but I was thinking about it the other day and wondering what other people's thoughts are.

At some point the Leafs will have to stop making the highest draft pick possible their top priority. I'm not saying they will immediately then have to go into all out 'now' mode, but they will have to accept the reality of letting their future core players break out a bit, which will result in a couple of seasons of winning enough games to miss out on a top pick, but not enough to make the playoffs. So how do you know when the time is right to allow that? I don't think you can just sit back and say 'if the team starts winning on its own then we'll let it'. With in-season moves so hard to make I really think you have to make your off-season plans with a transition year in mind.

I guess the first thing to determine is what a Cup winning core looks like. Given that the Hawks are held up as the standard, I would say during their run their primary core has consisted of six players - Toews, Kane, Hossa, Sharp, Keith and Seabrook. Others have been important and have been there the whole time as well (ie. Hjalmarsson) but those six have been the key players (ignoring for the moment that their depth and ability to replace depth players is also extremely important to their success). In the past top teams arguably had more core players, but the Hawks are proof that the cap prevents you from being able to hang on to all of them now.

So using this as a template, how do the Leafs get there and how do they determine that they are?

Hypothetically speaking, lets assume a few things happen this summer. Now I know the instinct is to say that this summer is too early in the rebuild to plan on stopping the full on tanking, but its just an exercise for discussion. So lets say four things happen this off-season:

1- the Leafs draft second overall and pick Patrik Laine
2- they sign Steven Stamkos
3- JvR, Kadri and Bozak are sent out via trade
4- Jacob Trouba is brought in via trade

It goes without saying that the odds of these exact four things happening are remote, but the important thing is that all four are within a realistic realm of possibility. So with these events, that would leave the future Leafs to build a core around the following players:

Laine - Stamkos - Marner
Kapanen - Nylander - Hyman
Soshnikov

Plus Brown, Leipsic, Johnson, Bracco, Timashov etc

Reilly - Trouba
Gardiner

Plus Carrick, Corrado, Zaitsev, Dermott, Loov etc

In this group you have five top 9 picks under 22 years old (all of who are looking very good and unlikely to completely bust), plus Stamkos. You've also got a handful of solid former first and second round picks sprinkled in, along with a few later round surprises and a couple free agents that are impressing.

Goaltending is the obvious blemish, but unless Sparks or Bibeau become solid starters (and I have my doubts they will) then I think the Leafs are going to have to look outside the organization regardless of how long they tank for. Goalies just take too long to develop and are too unpredictable to do otherwise at this point in the process, IMO.

Is there a realistic (key word, can't just hope for the best) possibility of there being a legitimate Cup contending core there? You'e banking a lot on Reilly and Trouba at least coming close to their potential, and even then you don't have a Keith or Doughty level guy, but not all contenders are able to have one. Could they lead a d corps that rivals Washington, Dallas, NYR, St. Louis etc? How about the forwards? Stamkos, Laine, Marner, Nylander etc seems like a pretty solid foundation there at least. There's a decent enough amount of depth at both forward and defence that will be added to significantly over the next 2-3 drafts based on the number of picks already acquired. The importance of rotating the non core players the way the Hawks have can't be overstated.

Would you be comfortable with that core going forward if it means next season has a bottom 10 finish instead of a bottom 3? The lack of a true star pick available next year makes tanking again less desirable, and do you just stay in holding pattern until one is available otherwise?

If you aren't comfortable with that potential core, then what do you feel is missing? How many more players do you think are needed, and where? Do you start drafting for position at that point or is there still an overall lack of talent that there are holes all over the lineup?

Thoughts?

 

[Kin]

I really don't understand why it wouldn't be a natural progression. If you look at the difference between the 06-07 and 07-08 Blackhawks it's not like they decided to make a bunch of wholesale roster moves in order to facilitate the good team that Kane/Toews would make them. They just added Kane/Toews to a team with other good young players, some of whom started developing into better players, and they played better.

To that end I really don't think it's about collecting a bunch of players who were high draft picks and mapping out a future. You make moves based on these players actually establishing themselves as capable of what the team needs.

 

[bustaheims]

To that end I really don't think it's about collecting a bunch of players who were high draft picks and mapping out a future. You make moves based on these players actually establishing themselves as capable of what the team needs.

Exactly. There's no cut-off point or anything. The team stops "tanking" when the players the team has drafted and acquired play well enough for the team to start winning. It's at that point that you start planning your off-seasons around acquiring the pieces the team needs to take the next step. You don't look at it as trying to turn a bad team into a good one at a defined point, but, rather, you're waiting for the team to develop into a good one (and facilitating that transition through smart drafting, thoughtful - not necessarily flashy/big name - additions, etc), and, then, you look to turn that good team into a great one.

 

[Bullfrog]

It's basically the same as feathering the clutch.

 

[Frank E]

At some point though, you have to decide on a core that you're going to build around.

 

[Bender]

At some point though, you have to decide on a core that you're going to build around.

If there is no core present then what are you gonna do?

 

[bustaheims]

At some point though, you have to decide on a core that you're going to build around.

True, but that point can't be before that core shows it can actually be a winning team. Not a Cup contending team, obviously, but, at the very least, more than a playoff bubble team.

 

[Kin]

At some point though, you have to decide on a core that you're going to build around.

Sure. But you build around a core of young NHL talent, not prospects.

 

[ZBBM]

It's basically the same as feathering the clutch.

Lock 'er up.  Pixels aren't free, you know.

 

[cabber24]

Well if they keep tweaking the draft lottery and if expansion happens there may be no benefit to tanking.

 

[groundskeeper willie]

At some point though, you have to decide on a core that you're going to build around.

Sure. But you build around a core of young NHL talent, not prospects.

I'm not talking about the team ceasing to continue to add young talent, I'm talking about actively trying to tank for the highest pick possible. Tanking includes a certain amount of sabotage, and as much as we like to talk about how the Leafs have been losing with dignity for the most part this year, they were definitely set up to fail from the get go.

Full on tanking can't go on forever, at some point you have to accept that you might be drafting 10th instead of 1st for the good of the team. Lets look at a different potential scenario. Let's say the Leafs get Matthews this year. They are still short a true potential Norris winner though. Do you just continue to tank until you can get an Ekblad? Do you give it anther year or two until all the very best of the kids are on the team? Eventually sabotaging your team trying to get a top 3 pick will start to cause problems with the kids already on the team.

 

[Kin]

I'm not talking about the team ceasing to continue to add young talent, I'm talking about actively trying to tank for the highest pick possible. Tanking includes a certain amount of sabotage, and as much as we like to talk about how the Leafs have been losing with dignity for the most part this year, they were definitely set up to fail from the get go.

I just don't agree with that characterization. The Leafs have been involved in tearing down the structure of the Kessel/Phaneuf Leafs teams and making the decision to rebuild internally. They haven't "sabotaged" the team by going with short term stop-gaps like Parenteau or Hunwick, they're just not interested in trying to build a team via free agency.

When the team gets out of the basement it will be because the young players carry them there. Once we see that sort of progress, then the team will be able to add significant pieces that fit into the gaps. The team won't have to add short term fixes because they'll have drafted and developed players who fill those roles.   

So again, it's a natural progression. Look at the 6 core members of the Blackhawks you identify. 4 of the 6 were drafted by the Hawks. Sharp was a minor acquisition brought in before the team had Kane or Toews. Hossa was the only one brought into supplement the core and that was only after the young players the Hawks had drafted and developed had already coalesced into a 104 point team that made the Conference finals. 

It wasn't Chicago deciding "now we're going to stop tanking" it was Chicago becoming a good hockey team because of the young players they had. 

 

[ZBBM]

I will just throw in as a complete non sequitur that watching this team post-deadline is like getting a very big belated Xmas present.  I haven't enjoyed games this much since the Sundin heyday.  To me the "tank" is already over, in the sense that whatever "pain" there is, now seems directed at a positive outcome.

 

[Bullfrog]

Oh, I think next year's going to be quite painful to watch also, but it'll also have lots of highlights from some of the younger guys.

 

[bustaheims]

Oh, I think next year's going to be quite painful to watch also, but it'll also have lots of highlights from some of the younger guys.

I don't know if it will be that painful to watch - I think the team will be quite entertaining. I just expect things to result in a similar record to what they'll end up with this season. It'll be a much more fun season near the bottom of the standings.

 

[Bullfrog]

That's more what I meant: they're not going to win a lot of games.

Though I do stick by my painful comment if they're sticking with Bernier/Sparks.

 

[Frank E]

That's more what I meant: they're not going to win a lot of games.

Though I do stick by my painful comment if they're sticking with Bernier/Sparks.

I think this will be dependent on goaltending, I agree, but also if they re-sign Kadri and keep JVR.

They keep those 2, and add Nylander and Marner to the roster doing a 40 point pace a piece, and I think they're more bottom 15 than bottom 5.

 

[Highlander]

Late indications is that the tank is over, perhaps the corner has been turned

 

[bustaheims]

They keep those 2, and add Nylander and Marner to the roster doing a 40 point pace a piece, and I think they're more bottom 15 than bottom 5.

I don't think it'll be anywhere near that kind of improvement. Nylander and Marner at a 40 point pace means one is basically a straight swap for Parenteau, and the other is a step up from Matthias that compensates for what will likely be a drop off from Komarov. The difference there is more like from being bottom 2 to being bottom 4.

 

[Kin]

 
I think this will be dependent on goaltending, I agree, but also if they re-sign Kadri and keep JVR.

They keep those 2, and add Nylander and Marner to the roster doing a 40 point pace a piece, and I think they're more bottom 15 than bottom 5.

I odn't agree with the impact you think Nylander and Marner will have on the record but regardless I think it's a pretty big long shot that both JVR and Kadri are back next year.