Leafs @ Panthers - Mar. 29th, 7:30pm - TSN4, TSN 1050

[CarltonTheBear]

@

27-37-11, 65 points | 42-24-9, 93 points 

Projected Lines

Michalek-Kadri-Grabner Hyman-Nylander-Parenteau Boyes-Bozak-Brown Greening-Laich-Smith Marincin-Rielly Gardiner-Carrick Valiev-Corrado Bernier ​

Huberdeau-Barkov-Jagr Jokinen-Trochek-Smith Hudler-Bjugstad-Purcell Wilson-McKegg-Shaw Campbell-Ekblad Kulikov-Kampfer Kindl-Petrovic Luongo​

Scratches

Peter Holland Nikita Soshnikov Leo Komarov Viktor Loov Byron Froese ​

Derek MacKenzie Shawn Thornton Quinton Howden Erik Gudbranson​

Game Notes

TOR
?Bernier will start for the Leafs

FLA
?Luongo will likely start for the Panthers
?After beating Tampa on Saturday, the Panthers have taken over the top spot in the Atlantic division
?Injured players Erik Gudbranson and Derek McKenzie could make their returns

Injuries

?Stephane Robidas - Old - Out indefinitely ?James van Riemsdyk - Foot - Out for season ?Joffrey Lupul - Lower Body - Out for season ?Matt Hunwick - Groin - Out for season ?Byron Froese - Hand - Out indefinitely ?Viktor Loov - Undisclosed - Day to day ?Peter Holland - Undisclosed - Day to day ?Brooks Laich - Personal - Day to day ?Nikita Soshnikov - Upper Body - Day to day ?Leo Komarov - Lower Body - Day to day ​

?Willie Mitchell - Concussion - Out indefinitely ?David Bolland - Lower Body - Injured Reserve ?Derek MzcKenzie - Foot - Questionable Tuesday ?Erik Gudbranson - Foot - Questionable Tuesday​

Stream Options

https://www.reddit.com/r/NHLstreams
http://onhockey.tv/
​

 

[Frank E]

I like to think that Bozak's play since returning in combination with his earlier season play might make him quite easily trade material for a decent pick or prospect.

 

[ZBBM]

I like to think that Bozak's play since returning in combination with his earlier season play might make him quite easily trade material for a decent pick or prospect.

Or maybe we should be looking to move Kadri instead?  We know what his ceiling is, now, and arguably Bozak is slightly more valuable as a keeper.

 

[mr grieves]

I like to think that Bozak's play since returning in combination with his earlier season play might make him quite easily trade material for a decent pick or prospect.

Or maybe we should be looking to move Kadri instead?  We know what his ceiling is, now, and arguably Bozak is slightly more valuable as a keeper.

What do we know Kadri's ceiling to be?

 

[bustaheims]

Or maybe we should be looking to move Kadri instead?  We know what his ceiling is, now, and arguably Bozak is slightly more valuable as a keeper.

Disagree. Bozak's not part of the future here. Kadri might be. That alone is enough to make keeping Kadri more valuable than keeping Bozak. I'd explore trading them both, but, unless the offers on Kadri are too good to turn down, I move Bozak first, without question.

 

[Tigger]

I like to think that Bozak's play since returning in combination with his earlier season play might make him quite easily trade material for a decent pick or prospect.

Or maybe we should be looking to move Kadri instead?  We know what his ceiling is, now, and arguably Bozak is slightly more valuable as a keeper.

That really depends on a few factors we don't know yet, like Kadri's asking price on his next contract, like the draft, like free agency, like the return for either player. If I had to choose now, I'd take Kadri, for his age and improving defensive ability ( the offense might be a wash ).

 

[herman]

Or maybe we should be looking to move Kadri instead?  We know what his ceiling is, now, and arguably Bozak is slightly more valuable as a keeper.

Disagree. Bozak's not part of the future here. Kadri might be. That alone is enough to make keeping Kadri more valuable than keeping Bozak. I'd explore trading them both, but, unless the offers on Kadri are too good to turn down, I move Bozak first, without question.

This.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

As much as I like Kadri, I don't think his contract is going to be insane. I think we'll be pleasantly surprised by it. He's scored at a 45-point pace this season and last. And while I certainly think he's capable of more if given better linemates and a little bit of luck (or just less bad luck), those aren't really numbers that you can break the bank with. And I don't think P/60 is something that's driving contract prices yet. His terrible shooting percentage in the first couple of months of the season might actually save the team a decent amount of coin.

 

[ZBBM]

I think Bozak is on balance a slightly better player than Kadri. I doubt if Kadri has anything more than we've seen, offensively.

Frankly, I would put Kadri down as a mild disappointment, overall.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I think Bozak is on balance a slightly better player than Kadri. I doubt if Kadri has anything more than we've seen, offensively.

Frankly, I would put Kadri down as a mild disappointment, overall.

Well Kadri outperforms Bozak by basically every offensive measure beyond the base G, A, Pts, PPG (there are fairly obvious reasons why just looking at those in comparing these two may be problematic) - higher P60, higher 5v5 P60, generates more scoring chances/60, more high danger chances/60, draws more penalties.  I won't go into all of them, but if we're talking strictly offensive ability/generating offense I don't think Bozak is slightly better at all, but worse overall offensively than Kadri.  Then throw in that Kadri is 4 years younger.

Also - by what measure is Kadri a mild disappointment?

 

[louisstamos]

I think Bozak is on balance a slightly better player than Kadri. I doubt if Kadri has anything more than we've seen, offensively.

Frankly, I would put Kadri down as a mild disappointment, overall.

Well Kadri outperforms Bozak by basically every offensive measure beyond the base G, A, Pts, PPG (there are fairly obvious reasons why just looking at those in comparing these two may be problematic) - higher P60, higher 5v5 P60, generates more scoring chances/60, more high danger chances/60, draws more penalties.  I won't go into all of them, but if we're talking strictly offensive ability/generating offense I don't think Bozak is slightly better at all, but worse overall offensively than Kadri.  Then throw in that Kadri is 4 years younger.

Also - by what measure is Kadri a mild disappointment?

Yeah, looking at Kadri's draft class - is there anyone else taken in the first round we could have taken at that spot that would have been better?  Mayyybe Leddy or Kreider?  Otherwise, Kadri's been exactly as billed - a pretty good 2nd line centre.

edit: hilariously enough, looking back at that draft: the Leafs have had 6 of the first 30 picks on their team at some point: Kadri, Cowen, Holland, Erixon, Paradis, Ashton

 

[herman]

I think Bozak is on balance a slightly better player than Kadri. I doubt if Kadri has anything more than we've seen, offensively.

Frankly, I would put Kadri down as a mild disappointment, overall.

Well Kadri outperforms Bozak by basically every offensive measure beyond the base G, A, Pts, PPG (there are fairly obvious reasons why just looking at those in comparing these two may be problematic) - higher P60, higher 5v5 P60, generates more scoring chances/60, more high danger chances/60, draws more penalties.  I won't go into all of them, but if we're talking strictly offensive ability/generating offense I don't think Bozak is slightly better at all, but worse overall offensively than Kadri.  Then throw in that Kadri is 4 years younger.

Also - by what measure is Kadri a mild disappointment?

Yeah, looking at Kadri's draft class - is there anyone else taken in the first round we could have taken at that spot that would have been better?  Mayyybe Leddy or Kreider?  Otherwise, Kadri's been exactly as billed - a pretty good 2nd line centre.

edit: hilariously enough, looking back at that draft: the Leafs have had 6 of the first 30 picks on their team at some point: Kadri, Cowen, Holland, Erixon, Paradis, Ashton

According to hindsight: Ryan O'Rielly, but he was round 2, and he's got other issues. In any case, he is not dominantly better than Kadri either.

I like the Kadri pick a lot, and still like Kadri the player. In my opinion, he's better than Bozak right now and still on the uphill side of his development curve. Neither of the two is on my must-keep list going forward, but it would take a healthy dowry to part with Kadri.

My trade thresholds:
Bozak: 2nd Rder, or 20-22 year old prospect with excellent skating + mid-rd pick
Kadri: 1st Rder + Prospect in organization's Top 5

 

[ZBBM]

I think Bozak is on balance a slightly better player than Kadri. I doubt if Kadri has anything more than we've seen, offensively.

Frankly, I would put Kadri down as a mild disappointment, overall.

Well Kadri outperforms Bozak by basically every offensive measure beyond the base G, A, Pts, PPG (there are fairly obvious reasons why just looking at those in comparing these two may be problematic) - higher P60, higher 5v5 P60, generates more scoring chances/60, more high danger chances/60, draws more penalties.  I won't go into all of them, but if we're talking strictly offensive ability/generating offense I don't think Bozak is slightly better at all, but worse overall offensively than Kadri.  Then throw in that Kadri is 4 years younger.

Also - by what measure is Kadri a mild disappointment?

Well, I put greater store in the base stats than you, especially points, which is the only thing that ultimately counts.  But let's not turn this into a debate over so-called advanced stats.

I'm disappointed in him offensively.  He's got a limited repertoire of moves and it shows in his points totals.  I expect a lot from top 10 picks (and incidentally with respect to other posts, comparing him to his draft class is irrelevant to that expectation).  He's a good player.  I wanted really good, and that means a better scorer in my book.

 

[Redleaf]

I think Bozak is on balance a slightly better player than Kadri. I doubt if Kadri has anything more than we've seen, offensively.

Frankly, I would put Kadri down as a mild disappointment, overall.

Well Kadri outperforms Bozak by basically every offensive measure beyond the base G, A, Pts, PPG (there are fairly obvious reasons why just looking at those in comparing these two may be problematic) - higher P60, higher 5v5 P60, generates more scoring chances/60, more high danger chances/60, draws more penalties.  I won't go into all of them, but if we're talking strictly offensive ability/generating offense I don't think Bozak is slightly better at all, but worse overall offensively than Kadri.  Then throw in that Kadri is 4 years younger.

Also - by what measure is Kadri a mild disappointment?

Well, I put greater store in the base stats than you, especially points, which is the only thing that ultimately counts.  But let's not turn this into a debate over so-called advanced stats.

I'm disappointed in him offensively.  He's got a limited repertoire of moves and it shows in his points totals.  I expect a lot from top 10 picks (and incidentally with respect to other posts, comparing him to his draft class is irrelevant to that expectation).  He's a good player.  I wanted really good, and that means a better scorer in my book.

This.

 

[Kin]

So then to answer the question, the measurement by which Kadri is a disappointment is the measurement of unrealistic expectation. 

 

[Omallley]

Injuries

?David Bolland - Lower Body - Injured Reserve

Completely forgot he's still playing. Had to look this up, but in the last two years the Panthers have gotten 78GP, 7G and 21A out of Bolland. All for a steal of a contract at $5.5M per for 3 more years. Yikes.

 

[Redleaf]

I guess it all depends on where your definition of unrealistic starts and ends.

 

[bustaheims]

So then to answer the question, the measurement by which Kadri is a disappointment is the measurement of unrealistic expectation.

That's basically how I see it, too. He's a disappointment to those who had expectations of him that exceeded what should be expected based on his actual abilities/projections at the draft. He was really only expected to be a 50-60 point guy, and, well, he's not far off that right now.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I think Bozak is on balance a slightly better player than Kadri. I doubt if Kadri has anything more than we've seen, offensively.

Frankly, I would put Kadri down as a mild disappointment, overall.

Well Kadri outperforms Bozak by basically every offensive measure beyond the base G, A, Pts, PPG (there are fairly obvious reasons why just looking at those in comparing these two may be problematic) - higher P60, higher 5v5 P60, generates more scoring chances/60, more high danger chances/60, draws more penalties.  I won't go into all of them, but if we're talking strictly offensive ability/generating offense I don't think Bozak is slightly better at all, but worse overall offensively than Kadri.  Then throw in that Kadri is 4 years younger.

Also - by what measure is Kadri a mild disappointment?

Well, I put greater store in the base stats than you, especially points, which is the only thing that ultimately counts.  But let's not turn this into a debate over so-called advanced stats.

I'm disappointed in him offensively.  He's got a limited repertoire of moves and it shows in his points totals.  I expect a lot from top 10 picks (and incidentally with respect to other posts, comparing him to his draft class is irrelevant to that expectation).  He's a good player.  I wanted really good, and that means a better scorer in my book.

The comment about the base totals was simply that Bozak has spent much more time playing with better offensive players than Kadri has.  You would expect that to be reflected in their overall totals, just like you wouldn't expect Brad Boyes to have high base counts if he spends most of the games on the 4th line.

I would argue that his totals are really only reflective of not playing top line minutes with the best offensive players since coming into the league, so less  even strength and PP time should mean less point totals.  I'm not saying it's some huge landslide ahead of Bozak, but all things being equal I think he's shown to be the better offensive player.

 

[ZBBM]

So then to answer the question, the measurement by which Kadri is a disappointment is the measurement of unrealistic expectation.

What's unrealistic about expecting a top 10 draft pick to score more than 15 goals or whatever he's done so far this year?