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OV - Chase For the Record

Obligatory F*** Russia

He's going to do it this year. He just scored a hattrick last night and is up to 13 goals in 17 games. He started slow last year but finished with 22 goals in 35 games last year.

He's 28 goals back of Gretzky now.
 
I don't see how he doesn't pull it off now, barring an injury of course. This start has meant that even if he needs to hobble past the finish line at some point next season he'll certainly do it.

I am glad that it seems like he's going to beat the record without having to play into his almost mid-40s though. There is something cool about him doing it while also potentially winning the Rocket as opposed to doing it in a season where gets 10 goals.
 
Ignoring the fact that a guy at 39 is having to score at almost a goal/game pace to creep up on Gretzky, Ovechkin's health has so much to do with his production.

He missed his "rookie" season due to a lockout. He missed half a season to a second lockout. He lost the equivalent of a season due to COVID, but he has been able to play 77+ games in 14 of 16 82-game seasons. Matthews has played 75 games twice in his career. He's scoring at a better pace than Ovechkin but I have a hard time seeing Matthews' body hold up to playing at this level in his late 30s.
 
So just doing some quick math...

Gretzky - 894 goals in 1487 games (.601)
Ovechkin - 866 goals in 1443 games (.600 and still going)
Matthews - 373 goals in 575 games (.648 and still going)

At Matthews' pace, he'd need 1379 games to get to 894 goals (OV could set that bar a fair bit higher), so another 804 games over the 575 he's played thus far...if we count him at a 70 (conservatively) game season avg., that's 804/70, and that's just under 12 more seasons to get there at a 70 games per season @.648.

He's 27, so that would take him until he's 39.

Does my math track?
 
Ignoring the fact that a guy at 39 is having to score at almost a goal/game pace to creep up on Gretzky, Ovechkin's health has so much to do with his production.

He missed his "rookie" season due to a lockout. He missed half a season to a second lockout. He lost the equivalent of a season due to COVID, but he has been able to play 77+ games in 14 of 16 82-game seasons. Matthews has played 75 games twice in his career. He's scoring at a better pace than Ovechkin but I have a hard time seeing Matthews' body hold up to playing at this level in his late 30s.
Can I not dream for once? You and your "realism"
 
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