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Red Wings @ Maple Leafs - Apr. 17th, 7:00pm - TSN4, Fan 590

CarltonTheBear

CarltonTheBear

Administrator
Staff member
DET_light.svg
​
TOR_light.svg
Detroit Red Wings
39-35-7, 85 pts​
@​
Toronto Maple Leafs
51-26-4, 106 pts​
Projected Line-ups​
Berggren-Larkin-Raymond
Kane-Kasper-DeBrincat
Tarasenko-Compher-Rasmussen
Watson-Motte-Smith

Chiarot-Seider
Edvinsson-Petry
Johansson-Holl

Mrazek​
Knies-Matthews-Marner
Domi-Tavares-Nylander
McMann-Holmberg-Robertson
Lorentz-Laughton-Jarnkrok

Rielly-Myers
Benoit-Tanev
Mermis-Carlo

Woll​
Scratches​
William Lagesson
Erik Gustafsson
Cam Talbot​
​
David Kampf
Jake McCabe
Oliver Ekman-Larsson​
Injuries​
Erik Gustafsson - Undisclosed - Questionable
Elmer Soderblom - Undisclosed - Injured Reserve
Andrew Copp - Pectoral - Injured Reserve​
​
David Kampf - Upper Body - Day to day
Jake McCabe - Undisclosed - Day to day
Oliver Ekman-Larsson - Undisclosed - Day to day
Max Pacioretty - Undisclosed - Injured Reserve
Jani Hakanpaa - Knee - Injured Reserve​
Game Notes​
DET
-Petr Mrazek (12-21-2, 3.35 GAA, .891 Sv%) will start for the Red Wings
-Detroit's playoff drought has now stretched to 9 seasons, 6 of them coming with Steve Yzerman as the teams GM
TOR
-Joseph Woll (26-14-1, 2.72 GAA, .909 Sv%) will likely start for the Leafs
-Toronto has of course clinched 1st place in the Atlantic division, making this a meaningless game for both teams. The only intrigue will really be if any of McCabe, OEL, or Kampf can be cleared to play in a game before playoffs begin
Streams​
 
Plenty to play for in this game:
- Bottom 6/Bottom pair battle for the G1 lineup
- breaking Dylan Larkin’s spirit enough that he forces a trade out of Detroit to Toronto
 
Arn said:
Who wouldn’t want to tune in to watch former Leafs legend Mrazek?
Click to expand...
with Justin Holl defending ... ?

The 3/4th liners and bottom pairing are going to get season high ice times

What's the over/under on the number of hits and blocked shots in this game? Everyone is going to be playing like Nylander ...
 
bustaheims said:
Nylander also only needs 8 goals to win the Rocket . . .:p
Click to expand...

I fired up the abacus, and by my laborious calculations, that equates to 2 and 2/3 hat tricks.

The most goals in a game by one player was seven by Joe Malone January 31 1920.

So there is a chance.

EIGHT MORE FOR EIGHTY EIGHT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
Last edited:
What a strange season. It's felt like for the last 81 games, this team has been kinda crappy.

Yet,

1. Nylander is second in goals
2. Marner is tied for 5th in points
3. Stolarz is 1st in SV%
4. Leafs finish top of the Atlantic

Is this just the result of Berube HockeyTM?
 
Guru Tugginmypuddah said:
What a strange season. It's felt like for the last 81 games, this team has been kinda crappy.

Yet,

1. Nylander is second in goals
2. Marner is tied for 5th in points
3. Stolarz is 1st in SV%
4. Leafs finish top of the Atlantic

Is this just the result of Berube HockeyTM?
Click to expand...
Yes.

I know I'm bipolar game to game on the Leafs but I think its pretty clear that this team is better:

82GP 46-26-10 (33 regulation wins, 41 ROWs) 303GF 263GA +40 goal differential. (22-15-4 home; 24-11-6 road).
81GP 51-26-4 (41 regulation wins, 50 ROWs) 264GF 228GA +36 goal differential. (26-13-1 home; 25-13-3 road).

PP - 25% (2025) vs. 24% (2024)
PK - 78.1% (2025) vs. 76.9% (2024)

The goal differential is almost entirely explained by Auston Matthews season.

Every year of his career his outperforms is expected goals
16/17- 35.8 expected - 40 actual goals
17/18 - 22.8 expected - 34 actual goals
18/19 - 30.6 expected - 37 actual goals
19/20 - 28.7 expected - 47 actual goals
20/21 - 30 expected - 41 actual goals
21/22 - 41.9 expected - 60 actual goals
22/23 - 38.5 expected - 40 actual goals
23/24 - 50.8 expected - 69 actual goals
24/25 - 40.9 expected - 32 actual goals

In his first 8 seasons he averaged 11.1 goals above his expected total. This year is is 8.9 below his expected. Based on his career totals that's an extra 20 goals. I think looking at Matthews over the last month or two, he doesn't look like the cheat code he was on the way to 69 goals but he looks closer to that guy than the Matthews we saw in November.

The team isn't as dynamic as previous years in terms of running up the score in a 7-2 win but they are also far more comfortable playing in closer games.

They still have issues defending 6 on 5 but this is the best I have felt about the Leafs since Tavares game winning goal against Tampa.
 
Guru Tugginmypuddah said:
What a strange season. It's felt like for the last 81 games, this team has been kinda crappy.

Yet,

1. Nylander is second in goals
2. Marner is tied for 5th in points
3. Stolarz is 1st in SV%
4. Leafs finish top of the Atlantic

Is this just the result of Berube HockeyTM?
Click to expand...
Berube was a factor but not the whole reason in my opinion.
But I had similar feelings of 'strangeness' in that the season wasn't 'smooth'. There always seemed to be a problem or concern or erratic play.

One significant key not directly on your list: Treliving brought some good players in: Stolarz, Tanev, OEL, Carlo, and lesser names like Lorentz, Pacioretty, Myers, maybe Laughton

Some of Stolarz numeric success is the result of Berube Hockey that he got the team to collectively buy in on.

I think there is more parity in the league this year. Leafs have 4th best win% at .656 - that seems low to me. This playoff seems more like a free for all. The Caps who were a .700 team have fallen back. A bunch of teams could get hot and win it all.
So perceptions of the Leafs may have benefitted some from that.

The thing that has given me some optimism is Rielly, Benoit, Domi, maybe Holmberg & a resurgent Tavares seemingly starting to find their game in the last few weeks of the season - such that the team on paper in Sept 2024 is starting to resemble what we hoped for (on top of the improvements of Stolarz, Knies & Robertson). The neat part is that it isn't a fluke: these players are just playing to their previously demonstrated capabilities. So we can have some confidence that its for real. And they're getting hot at the right time.

I have not assessed the playoffs yet. But my guess is that the Leafs have risen from about a 6% chance to a 10% chance to win it all. A 10% chance is a contender - a decent shot. Not a lot of teams get much higher than that going into the playoffs. With parity, they're healthy and hot at the right time ... this might be as good of a shot as they've had during the Matthews-Marner-Nylander era.
 
And 1 point tonight will ensure home ice advantage against all teams but Washington, Winnipeg, Vegas and L.A.
2 points combined with a LA regular Loss and they would have home ice against L.A as well.
 
Last edited:
L K said:
Yes.

I know I'm bipolar game to game on the Leafs but I think its pretty clear that this team is better:

82GP 46-26-10 (33 regulation wins, 41 ROWs) 303GF 263GA +40 goal differential. (22-15-4 home; 24-11-6 road).
81GP 51-26-4 (41 regulation wins, 50 ROWs) 264GF 228GA +36 goal differential. (26-13-1 home; 25-13-3 road).

PP - 25% (2025) vs. 24% (2024)
PK - 78.1% (2025) vs. 76.9% (2024)

The goal differential is almost entirely explained by Auston Matthews season.

Every year of his career his outperforms is expected goals
16/17- 35.8 expected - 40 actual goals
17/18 - 22.8 expected - 34 actual goals
18/19 - 30.6 expected - 37 actual goals
19/20 - 28.7 expected - 47 actual goals
20/21 - 30 expected - 41 actual goals
21/22 - 41.9 expected - 60 actual goals
22/23 - 38.5 expected - 40 actual goals
23/24 - 50.8 expected - 69 actual goals
24/25 - 40.9 expected - 32 actual goals

In his first 8 seasons he averaged 11.1 goals above his expected total. This year is is 8.9 below his expected. Based on his career totals that's an extra 20 goals. I think looking at Matthews over the last month or two, he doesn't look like the cheat code he was on the way to 69 goals but he looks closer to that guy than the Matthews we saw in November.

The team isn't as dynamic as previous years in terms of running up the score in a 7-2 win but they are also far more comfortable playing in closer games.

They still have issues defending 6 on 5 but this is the best I have felt about the Leafs since Tavares game winning goal against Tampa.
Click to expand...

He has no accuracy with his shot, or at least, not the accuracy he's shown in the past. He's had several chances on the power play recently that would have been automatic goals that he shoot wide or hits the goalie.
 
Joe S. said:
Reliable/stable goaltending also has a big impact on how the team plays. You could tell how deflated they were with samsonov’s horrific season. They had to outscore a lot of their problems.
Click to expand...

Have the Leafs ever had goaltending like this?

Stolarz - .926 - 2.14
Woll - .909 - 2.72

Also to be noted, I think if you'd asked me last October if the Leafs would have only had to start 3rd stringer goalies 8 games this season, I would have bet a lot of money against that. I was really nervous with going with 2 goalies that had significant injury histories.
 
Kaberle15 said:
And 1 point tonight will ensure home ice advantage against all teams but Washington, Winnipeg, Vegas and L.A.
2 points combined with a LA Loss and they would have home ice against L.A as well.
Click to expand...
Don't need the LA loss. 2 Points and the best LA could do is finish a point behind.
 
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