Sabres @ Leafs - Jan. 17th, 7:30pm - SNO, TSN 1050

[CarltonTheBear]

@

17-17-9, 43 points | 20-13-8, 48 points

Projected Lines

Ennis-O'Reilly-Okposo Foligno-Eichel-Reinhart Kane-Girgensons-Gionta Carrier-O'Reilly-Moulson McCabe-Ristolainen Bogosian-Franson Falk-Fedun Nilsson ​

Hyman-Matthews-Brown Komarov-Kadri-Nylander JVR-Bozak-Marner Martin-Gauthier-Soshnikov Rielly-Zaitsev Gardiner-Carrick Hunwick-Polak Andersen​

Scratches

Josh Gorges Nicolas Deslauriers ​

Frank Corrado Josh Leivo​

Game Notes

BUF
?Anders Nilsson (7-5-2, 2.58 GAA, .924 Sv%) will likely start for the Sabres
?Buffalo beats Dallas yesterday 4-1 in a rare afternoon game
?Tyler Ennis returned to Buffalo's line-up yesterday after missing over 2 months with a hernia/groin injury. He scored a goal in his return
?Jack Eichel has 17 points in 22 games this season. A very respectable total for a highly regarded young player who's definitely not as good as Auston Matthews

TOR
?Andersen (18-9-7, 2.67 GAA, .919 Sv%) will likely start for the Leafs
?Frankie Corrado has returned to take his usual spot in the Maple Leafs pressbox at the ACC
?Tonight marks the beginning of 4-straight home games, with 1 day off in between each
?Auston Matthews is now up to 24 points in his last 22 games, Marner has 9 in his last 6, JVR 11 in his last 7, Brown has 11 in his last 10, Nylander 8 in his last 10, Gardiner 8 in his last 10, Bozak 8 in his last 5, Kadri 8 in his last 7
?One name missing from all that: Morgan Rielly. Rielly has just 2 assists in his last 15 games, and has only scored once in 41 games this season

Injuries

?Josh Gorges - Hip - Questionable Tuesday ?Johan Larsson - Wrist - Injured Reserve ?Dmitry Kulikov - Back - Injured Reserve ?Cody McCormick - Blood clots - Injured Reserve​

?Nathan Horton - Back - Out indefinitely ?Joffrey Lupul - ?\_(ツ)_/? - Out indefinitely ?Stephane Robidas - Old - Out indefinitely ?Martin Marincin - Lower Body - Injured Reserve ?Ben Smith - Hand - Injured Reserve ​

Stream Options

https://www.reddit.com/r/NHLstreams
​

 

[Coco-puffs]

One name missing from all that: Morgan Rielly. Rielly has just 2 assists in his last 15 games, and has only scored once in 41 games this season

Didn't realize he was in such a slump. 

Rielly is still on pace for 34 pts this season despite very little PP time.  Gardiner and Rielly are tied (most among Leafs d-men) with 14 ES points despite his cold streak.  (11 of those are 5-on-5, still tied for the Leafs lead with Zaitsev and Gardiner) 

Rielly also leads the D in shots by a large margin- 91.  Gardiner is next at 66, with PP time.  1.1% Shooting Percentage is not sustainable.

Anyways, I'm less worried about his offensive output as I am his defensive game.  It needs to continue to improve. 

 

[herman]

?Jack Eichel has 17 points in 22 games this season. A very respectable total for a highly regarded young player who's definitely not as good as Auston Matthews

 

[Kin]

Rielly is still on pace for 34 pts this season despite very little PP time.  Gardiner and Rielly are tied (most among Leafs d-men) with 14 ES points despite his cold streak.  (11 of those are 5-on-5, still tied for the Leafs lead with Zaitsev and Gardiner) 

I always wonder about that. When we talk about point production in general I get the emphasis on 5v5 numbers because that's the scenario the game is most likely to be in and so it's maybe a "truer" representation of a player's offensive ability than the more specialized PP points.

With defensemen though, I wonder if the PP isn't where their actual offensive abilities really shine through. Because just off the top of my head points scored by defensemen at 5 on 5 seem to less be about individual efforts by defensemen and more about getting assists in transition by getting the puck up to forwards quickly and screened shots from the point taking lucky bounces.

To that end I wonder if you looked at 5v5 defenseman scoring in a raw total sense if it wouldn't, with some exceptions, end up just working as a function of ice time and be heavily dependent on the style a team plays and the forwards a defenseman plays with.

 

[herman]

I always wonder about that. When we talk about point production in general I get the emphasis on 5v5 numbers because that's the scenario the game is most likely to be in and so it's maybe a "truer" representation of a player's offensive ability than the more specialized PP points.

With defensemen though, I wonder if the PP isn't where their actual offensive abilities really shine through. Because just off the top of my head points scored by defensemen at 5 on 5 seem to less be about individual efforts by defensemen and more about getting assists in transition by getting the puck up to forwards quickly and screened shots from the point taking lucky bounces.

To that end I wonder if you looked at 5v5 defenseman scoring in a raw total sense if it wouldn't, with some exceptions, end up just working as a function of ice time and be heavily dependent on the style a team plays and the forwards a defenseman plays with.

Carrick mentions that this is pretty much what Babcock asks his defensemen to do. Push the puck up to the forwards. In the offensive zone 5v5, they're basically used as mobile pinball bumpers to take bank shots off the backboards, or aim for tip shots into traffic when they're not supporting the cycle with pinches.

From: http://hockeyviz.com/team/TOR/1617

A lot of focus on the left point shot too, for some reason (Rielly, Gardiner have high shot rates), which indicates a systematic reason for Zaitsev and Carrick's lower numbers. My theory is that a good deal of our sustained O-zone time (when point shots are likeliest) runs through the right half-wall because of Marner and Nylander, which opens up the left point more than the right.

 

[Coco-puffs]

A lot of focus on the left point shot too, for some reason (Rielly, Gardiner have high shot rates), which indicates a systematic reason for Zaitsev and Carrick's lower numbers. My theory is that a good deal of our sustained O-zone time (when point shots are likeliest) runs through the right half-wall because of Marner and Nylander, which opens up the left point more than the right.

Good analysis.  Brown is no slouch either on the RW

(Even on the 4th line, our RW is probably better than our LW)

 

[herman]

Good analysis.  Brown is no slouch either on the RW

(Even on the 4th line, our RW is probably better than our LW)

Thanks! For the Matthews line, they seem to do more behind the net set up, than the Marner/Nylander option distribution. They play like a basketball team running big, forcing the puck down low (behind the net, really) and into the paint. Matthews is the big man in the middle for the layup, or kicks it out to Brown for a snipe from the right circle.

 

[disco]

All 3 lines have weapons. Love our top nine. That model's going to be here for years and years.

Four home games in eight nights. Savour the flavour Boston, because we're coming for you...

"I'm here for 7 more years. Then I'm gonna stay for two more because we'll be really good." - Coach Mike Babcock

 

[ZBBM]

"Colour units are unblocked shots per hour per hundred square feet"

Somewhere, Punch Imlach is sneering.

 

[Redleaf]

Interesting comment about Eichel not being e as good as Matthews. I can't help but think that Eichel probably would have went ahead of Matthews in the draft had Matthews been in the same draft, simply because nobody really knew much about Matthews at that time. Thankfully his draft year was in 2016 and the Leafs won the lottery.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

So it'll actually be Robin Lehner (10-12-5, 2.48 GAA, .922 Sv%) going back-to-back instead of Nilsson starting for Buffalo.

Pretty surprised to see that both Buffalo goalies have a save percentage of over .920. The Sabres have the 5th best save percentage in the league, and yet they are still 27th in points.

 

[Kin]

Wasn't there a lot of talk about Matthews at the 2015 draft? About where he'd go if he'd been a couple days younger?

 

[herman]

Wasn't there a lot of talk about Matthews at the 2015 draft? About where he'd go if he'd been a couple days younger?

Not that I'm completely covering all the internet, but my recollection is that Matthews in the 2015 draft talk was largely during the run up to 2016's draft. McDavid/Eichel and Hanafin/Strome/Marner were the 2015 conversation points.

 

[Andy007]

Wasn't there a lot of talk about Matthews at the 2015 draft? About where he'd go if he'd been a couple days younger?

I seem to remember a fair bit of buzz about this too. I found a few articles on a quick google search:

http://www.tsn.ca/button-matthews-the-clear-favourite-to-go-no-1-in-2016-draft-1.107932

http://www.fiveforhowling.com/2015/6/2/8676409/from-the-editors-desk-is-auston-matthews-a-sign-of-things-to-come

Both are before the 2015 draft, predict he'll go #1 and put him in the same territory as McDavid and Eichel.

 

[herman]

I seem to remember a fair bit of buzz about this too. I found a few articles on a quick google search:

http://www.tsn.ca/button-matthews-the-clear-favourite-to-go-no-1-in-2016-draft-1.107932

http://www.fiveforhowling.com/2015/6/2/8676409/from-the-editors-desk-is-auston-matthews-a-sign-of-things-to-come

Both are before the 2015 draft, predict he'll go #1 and put him in the same territory as McDavid and Eichel.

Nice find on the Button column, Andy.

Super neat:

One more factor stood out for Ward: "[Matthews, at 13 years old,] didn't play one position, he played them all. He would go off the ice playing one position and go on again and play a different one. It didn't matter if he was playing forward or defence, he excelled."

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Super neat:

One more factor stood out for Ward: "[Matthews, at 13 years old,] didn't play one position, he played them all. He would go off the ice playing one position and go on again and play a different one. It didn't matter if he was playing forward or defence, he excelled."

Pfft, I do that in ball hockey all the time it's not that impressive.

 

[Highlander]

Ok Defensive problems solved Matthews plays one shift at Centre, the next on Defense, rotates and plays 60 minutes a game. No problemo

 

[Kin]

Yeah, I mean either way it's pretty safe to say a lot of people were hyped about Matthews at the time and his USNDP numbers were right up there with other elite prospects. I definitely remember some people saying he'd be the #2 pick.

 

[disco]

So it'll actually be Robin Lehner (10-12-5, 2.48 GAA, .922 Sv%) going back-to-back instead of Nilsson starting for Buffalo.

Pretty surprised to see that both Buffalo goalies have a save percentage of over .920. The Sabres have the 5th best save percentage in the league, and yet they are still 27th in points.

            Goals For / Goals Against
Toronto      128          120
Buffalo        101          120

It's goals. They're also 27th in the league in GF.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

My kingdom for a YT link?