The Matthews Extension

[Kin]

So I thought I'd start a thread to move some of the Matthews talk that's bugging Joe so much out of the Tavares thread and into one where we can talk about the next big issue on the Leafs' plate. Also, I'll be workshopping some plot elements for The Matthews Extension, which is the title of my upcoming spy thriller.

Basically a place to talk about what we think Matthews should get and how that fits into the larger picture.

Personally, I really think that one of the reasons we haven't heard much about this, why Matthews didn't essentially sign the second he could the way McDavid did, is that Dubas wanted to get the Tavares deal done so he could more easily try and sell MNM on the idea of leaving some money on the table for the pursuit of glory the way Johnny Toronto(work in progress) did.

Anyways, I think the Leafs have three options on the table:

1. Go the McDavid/Eichel route and sign the max length deal. The downside here is you basically have to give him whatever he wants salary wise.

2. Go the Stamkos/Tavares route and sign him to a smaller, shorter second deal where you can hopefully get a discount because you're not buying UFA years. The downside being you have to give him a 3rd contract sooner when he has UFA leverage.

3. Maybe an inbetween step where you sign him for 6 or 7 years and get a smaller discount.

Now, because Matthews isn't quite McDavid(yet) I think the Leafs have a compelling case to make in negotiations that he shouldn't get the highest AAV in the league. That said, I think he's got a case that he should do better than Eichel did. So, to me, I'd guess the three options end up looking something like this:

8 years, 92 million

5 years, 45 million

7 years, 73.5 million

Thoughts on which way to go? Personally, I'd kind of lean towards the big mega deal one. I think, as much as I'm excited about Tavares, Matthews is still the guy who's going to be the guy on this team. I'd match any offer sheet for him so getting him long term seems to be the right call.

 

[ZBBM]

I agree.  It's all about the window, and I'd pin him down for the full 8.  I'd try to do the same (acknowledging it may not be possible) for Nylander and Marner.  Then you'd have all 4 for the full JTness.  Offer-sheet silliness nothwithstanding.

If they can't win a Cup with those 4 over the next 7 years then they never will. 

 

[Zee]

I'll take door #1 8 year deal please.

I think they do all 3 this summer (well Nylander has to get done but you know what I mean)

 

[Kin]

I'll take door #1 8 year deal please.

I think they do all 3 this summer (well Nylander has to get done but you know what I mean)

My only question there with Matthews is that because his last year was a bit bumpy due to injury he may feel as though he wouldn't be negotiating from strength.

Even if he just maintains his pace from last year over 82 games this year he'd have scored 45 goals with 83 points. If he can push that even a little bit he'd start to be in Richard/Hart discussions. That may be where he wants to start talking long term numbers.

 

[princedpw]

im puzzling over whether the numbers are reasonable (though I understand they are ballpark to give us the idea)

10.5/year for 7 (73.5)
11.5/year for 8 (92)

The fact that 1 extra year gives him 18.5 million more doesn?t really seem to make sense (to me).  At least, if I?m Matthews, I definitely take the 92 and if I?m the leafs, I definitely offer only 7 for 73.5.

Perhaps the first AAV needs to be a little higher, or the second a little lower?

 

[princedpw]

I'll take door #1 8 year deal please.

I think they do all 3 this summer (well Nylander has to get done but you know what I mean)

My only question there with Matthews is that because his last year was a bit bumpy due to injury he may feel as though he wouldn't be negotiating from strength.

Even if he just maintains his pace from last year over 82 games this year he'd have scored 45 goals with 83 points. If he can push that even a little bit he'd start to be in Richard/Hart discussions. That may be where he wants to start talking long term numbers.

I?m hoping for 50 with a Richard trophy in the next couple of years.

 

[Hobbes]

A real message to the team would be if he'd agree to 8 @ $88m to make himself equal with JT and leave the team that little bit extra for others. The ripple-down effect of both of the team's top guys taking a bit less cash to play on a winner would likely help in Marner and Nylander's negotiations, too.

Whether it would be in Matthews' best interests to sign that deal is a trickier one; but if he's really driven by winning it would be a pretty emphatic way to put an exclamation point on it.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

A real message to the team would be if he'd agree to 8 @ $88m to make himself equal with JT and leave the team that little bit extra for others. The ripple-down effect of both of the team's top guys taking a bit less cash to play on a winner would likely help in Marner and Nylander's negotiations, too.

Whether it would be in Matthews' best interests to sign that deal is a trickier one; but if he's really driven by winning it would be a pretty emphatic way to put an exclamation point on it.

Yeah even if he signs an 8-year deal I don't expect it to be higher than $11mil. That's still a $1mil bump over what Eichel got.

 

[Joe S.]

So I thought I'd start a thread to move some of the Matthews talk that's bugging Joe so much out of the Tavares thread and into one where we can talk about the next big issue on the Leafs' plate. Also, I'll be workshopping some plot elements for The Matthews Extension, which is the title of my upcoming spy thriller.

Basically a place to talk about what we think Matthews should get and how that fits into the larger picture.

Thank you

 

[Bill_Berg]

What's the most years he could sign for and still be an RFA when the contract expires? I think it's four?

I would prefer 8 at 88.

 

[Zee]

I'll take door #1 8 year deal please.

I think they do all 3 this summer (well Nylander has to get done but you know what I mean)

My only question there with Matthews is that because his last year was a bit bumpy due to injury he may feel as though he wouldn't be negotiating from strength.

Even if he just maintains his pace from last year over 82 games this year he'd have scored 45 goals with 83 points. If he can push that even a little bit he'd start to be in Richard/Hart discussions. That may be where he wants to start talking long term numbers.

I hear you but I don't think the Leafs would try to mess around with squeezing Matthews due to sheer numbers being down because of injury. They know he's the golden goose and will pay him accordingly. I don't think it'll be a difficult negotiation at all. He'll be more than Eichel, less than McDavid.

 

[Kaberle15]

One thing that the big 3 might consider is to use the same way that JT contract was structured, heavy on SB and small on salary. They do have a potential lockout coming, and SB would guarantee the money, and that could sweet it up for then.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

One thing that the big 3 might consider is to use the same way that JT contract was structured, heavy on SB and small on salary. They do have a potential lockout coming, and SB would guarantee the money, and that could sweet it up for then.

I know MLSE is made of money, but I'd genuinely wonder how much they could comfortable pay out in one lump sum every single July 1st. Would they have $40-50mil-ish just lying around at that time every year?

 

[ZBBM]

One thing that the big 3 might consider is to use the same way that JT contract was structured, heavy on SB and small on salary. They do have a potential lockout coming, and SB would guarantee the money, and that could sweet it up for then.

I know MLSE is made of money, but I'd genuinely wonder how much they could comfortable pay out in one lump sum every single July 1st. Would they have $40-50mil-ish just lying around at that time every year?

Is this a serious question?

They've already netted $57M on sales of Tavares jerseys and we are only at Day 3.

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

MLSE are also getting $40 million a year for naming rights to the arena.  I think they are ok for cash. 

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Like I said, I'm not saying that MLSE can't afford to spend to the cap.

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

Like I said, I'm not saying that MLSE can't afford to spend to the cap.

I think the last year before the salary cap came in, the Leafs spent almost $70 million on player salaries.  I think they could spend double that today and still be flush with cash. 

 

[Kin]

im puzzling over whether the numbers are reasonable (though I understand they are ballpark to give us the idea)

10.5/year for 7 (73.5)
11.5/year for 8 (92)

The fact that 1 extra year gives him 18.5 million more doesn?t really seem to make sense (to me).  At least, if I?m Matthews, I definitely take the 92 and if I?m the leafs, I definitely offer only 7 for 73.5.

Perhaps the first AAV needs to be a little higher, or the second a little lower?

Right, so my thinking on this was maybe that Matthews would prefer the slightly shorter term so that maybe he could hit UFA while still in his 20's(technically after an 8 year deal he'd still be 29 but would turn 30 before the season started).

So basically it would be a trade-off. The slightly shorter term Matthews wants but at a more team friendly rate or the term the team wants and a AAV Matthews is happier with.

As to the actual numbers I don't think it's that big a discrepancy. If you assume, and I think it's safe to, that regardless of whether Matthews signs a 7 or 8 year deal we'd still want him on the team 8 years from now then it works out pretty fairly.

If we assume a 5% annual cap growth then in year one of his new deal 11.5 amounts to roughly 12.5% of the cap. In year 8 though, when the cap could be as high as 117.5 million a similar % of the cap would amount to 15 million or so(14.7 I think).

So my thinking is that how much Matthews would get over the next 8 years would either be:

10.5, 10.5, 10.5, 10.5, 10.5, 10.5, 10.5, 15

Or just 8 years of 11.5. The difference, money wise, is only 3.5 million. And, again, that's assuming he doesn't want an increased % of the cap on his 3rd deal(which seems unlikely, Tavares' cap % went from 8.5 on his 2nd deal to 13.8 on his 3rd).

So, to my mind, the difference in how much the Leafs would actually pay him over the course of 8 years is pretty small. You're effectively giving him a bonus of a couple million dollars for buying an extra free agent year at the lower rate.

 

[Kin]

Like I said, I'm not saying that MLSE can't afford to spend to the cap.

I'm no fancy businessman or anything but I think when you're dealing with this kind of money operating cash wouldn't be paid out of pocket. I'm guessing that if Rogers and Bell calls up whoever does their banking and says "We need 60 million on July 1st instead of spread out over the year" then they can probably swing that credit without a big hassle.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Like I said, I'm not saying that MLSE can't afford to spend to the cap.

I'm no fancy businessman or anything but I think when you're dealing with this kind of money operating cash wouldn't be paid out of pocket. I'm guessing that if Rogers and Bell calls up whoever does their banking and says "We need 60 million on July 1st instead of spread out over the year" then they can probably swing that credit without a big hassle.

Yeah, that makes sense. Ok massive signing bonuses for everyone then!