The Playoffs and Low Ratings

[Kin]

So it's not exactly a secret that these playoffs haven't been watched by many people. The ratings in Canada have been precipitously down following a year of low viewer interest:

http://www.thehockeynews.com/blog/playoff-tv-ratings-down-a-shocking-61-percent-in-canada/

And now we find out that things are bad in the States as well:

Conference Final Ratings at 3 year low

Which has led to stories like this one about the NHL, always willing to do NBC's bidding, shutting down Team viewing parties in the hopes it will boost ratings:

http://deadspin.com/the-nhl-threatened-to-fine-the-lightning-if-they-didnt-1778925655

During the Lockout there was an ongoing claim by people who generally were pro-cap and pro-parity that NHL fans would tune in no matter who was playing so long as the teams were compelling and the play was good. Then, after a long stretch of Cup finals where teams in big US markets did well(Boston, Chicago, NYR) and ratings were strong those people tended to claim that this was proof that parity wasn't an impediment to "real" hockey fans continuing to tune in.

Well, we're a game away from a San Jose-Tampa Bay finals. I think it's pretty fair to say that ratings will be precipitously low. Sportsnet is firing people and almost certainly losing money on the deal they signed for the national rights to the game.

A lot of people have taken to blaming the studio shows themselves and, to be fair, I think the studio shows are generally awful. Bland, charismatic less ex-players and executives shouting platitudes and cliches in between trying to run profiles on bland and largely charismatic less players.

But let's be real. We're starting to get a really good picture of just how misguided the idea that the NHL could ever really be like the NFL and build a national(and international) interest in the sport itself rather than a regional interest in local teams was. Interest isn't picking up as series go along because there's very little to suggest that the matchups are becoming more compelling. Tampa-San Jose wouldn't be two teams markedly better than St. Louis-Chicago or Pittsburgh-Washington. Resultingly, casual fans could not be more tuned out to what's going on.

This is all despite the fact that the NHL has still gotten relatively fortunate in terms of who's moved on. Pittsburgh is still a draw. San Jose and St. Louis aren't great but they're better than having to try and sell Arizona or Nashville. What if the final four were Ottawa-Columbus-Arizona-Anaheim?

So where does the league go from here? How do you try to grow interest in the game beyond these regional fan borders. The Cap has essentially ruled out doing so via a truly great team driving interest. Judging from activity on this board, and we're all pretty nuts about hockey, interest in the semi-finals is pretty low. I genuinely don't care who wins the cup at this point. So what's the League's, and by extension, the Networks' next move?

 

[Frank E]

Was the regular season viewing down as well, or is this more of a playoff phenomenon?

 

[Kin]

Was the regular season viewing down as well, or is this more of a playoff phenomenon?

In Canada? Sort of both. Regular season numbers were down but the drop-off has been steeper for the playoffs.

 

[herman]

The ratings system is probably broken in the age of cable cutting and Internet streaming.

 

[Kin]

The ratings system is probably broken in the age of cable cutting and Internet streaming.

Sure, but that has a minimal effect on the league's concerns here. The NHL and the networks only care about viewer eyeballs to the extent that those eyeballs generate revenue for them in some shape or form. So if I'm cutting my cable and watching games via grey-market streaming then unless I'm buying a ton more merchandise as a result the net loss to the league is the same.

Regardless, that's not a new phenomenon and I'd hazard a guess that there's not a significantly higher number of streamers/cord-cutters in Tampa than there is in Chicago. Ratings being down sharply from last year can't be explained by an admittedly outdated ratings system.

I mean, just look at the board here. I don't get the sense interest in the Playoffs is very high and we're all internet dorks.

 

[Coco-puffs]

The ratings system is probably broken in the age of cable cutting and Internet streaming.

Furthermore, how is 8,000 people at a viewing party NOT a good thing?  More TV sets tuned in doesn't equal more eyeballs watching.

 

[Kin]

The ratings system is probably broken in the age of cable cutting and Internet streaming.

Furthermore, how is 8,000 people at a viewing party NOT a good thing?  More TV sets tuned in doesn't equal more eyeballs watching.

Because of the way the system is it wouldn't take too many of those 8,000 to have a Neilson Box to it to significantly affect local ratings and, like I said, local ratings are basically the only thing that drive playoff numbers at this point.

Obviously it's a decision with terrible optics but with Sportsnet having to essentially give away advertising because of low-ratings as compensation they're in a pretty bad spot.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

That viewing party thing made me wonder, didn't the Leafs basically do that for every away game at Maple Leafs Square in 2012? So maybe this is just a new policy but I wondered what would happen when Toronto makes the playoffs again and wants to continue doing that. Does the NHL tell them no? I imagine shutting that down in Tampa would play out a little different than trying to shut that down in Toronto.

 

[herman]

The ratings system is probably broken in the age of cable cutting and Internet streaming.

Sure, but that has a minimal effect on the league's concerns here. The NHL and the networks only care about viewer eyeballs to the extent that those eyeballs generate revenue for them in some shape or form. So if I'm cutting my cable and watching games via grey-market streaming then unless I'm buying a ton more merchandise as a result the net loss to the league is the same.

Regardless, that's not a new phenomenon and I'd hazard a guess that there's not a significantly higher number of streamers/cord-cutters in Tampa than there is in Chicago. Ratings being down sharply from last year can't be explained by an admittedly outdated ratings system.

I mean, just look at the board here. I don't get the sense interest in the Playoffs is very high and we're all internet dorks.

Cord-cutting and Internet viewing are problems traditional tv have in general, granted. I do think they are measuring their 'success' with a flawed metric (as they always have).

Do you think the disinterest has more to do with the playoff format that now generates 'more rivalries'? Has the NHL prematurely spent all of its storylines?

 

[herman]

That viewing party thing made me wonder, didn't the Leafs basically do that for every away game at Maple Leafs Square in 2012? So maybe this is just a new policy but I wondered what would happen when Toronto makes the playoffs again and wants to continue doing that. Does the NHL tell them no? I imagine shutting that down in Tampa would play out a little different than trying to shut that down in Toronto.

Fascistly breaking up displays of fan enthusiasm for the express purpose of making more money is a great way to curry favour in your direction!

 

[Kin]

Cord-cutting and Internet viewing are problems traditional tv have in general, granted. I do think they are measuring their 'success' with a flawed metric (as they always have).

They being the NHL? Or the Networks? Because I think both are probably actually basing their success on a pretty fair metric and that's revenue dollars. I don't think Sportsnet or the NHL would be responding this way if they were happy with the money the TV package was generating.

Do you think the disinterest has more to do with the playoff format that now generates 'more rivalries'? Has the NHL prematurely spent all of its storylines?

Not really. I think the real problem is that in the US there isn't a strong national following of the game and that Canadians aren't that excited by two pretty good US based teams going up against each other.

The new playoff format has some bad elements sure but I think the bigger deal is that you had a situation where Washington-Pittsburgh, which was probably the most compelling series of the playoffs to neutral fans, happened in the second round.

In general I think the concept of narratives is largely overblown. Joe Thornton playing for his first cup is, on it's surface, a good narrative and one I'm sure we'll have rammed down our throats but every year there's some older guy playing for his first cup. I have no real emotional attachment to Joe Thornton. He's a good player who I admire but that's where it ends.

 

[herman]

Joe Thornton playing for his first cup is, on it's surface, a good narrative and one I'm sure we'll have rammed down our throats but every year there's some older guy playing for his first cup. I have no real emotional attachment to Joe Thornton. He's a good player who I admire but that's where it ends.

I bet the NHL is praying for him to score 4 goals in the opening game. That's how you get eyeballs.

 

[Coco-puffs]

That viewing party thing made me wonder, didn't the Leafs basically do that for every away game at Maple Leafs Square in 2012? So maybe this is just a new policy but I wondered what would happen when Toronto makes the playoffs again and wants to continue doing that. Does the NHL tell them no? I imagine shutting that down in Tampa would play out a little different than trying to shut that down in Toronto.

I'm pretty sure they did it for every home and away game in 2012... just like they do with Jurassic Park for the Raptors.  (I live right around the corner from the ACC)

 

[Deebo]

That viewing party thing made me wonder, didn't the Leafs basically do that for every away game at Maple Leafs Square in 2012? So maybe this is just a new policy but I wondered what would happen when Toronto makes the playoffs again and wants to continue doing that. Does the NHL tell them no? I imagine shutting that down in Tampa would play out a little different than trying to shut that down in Toronto.

The article suggests that its NBC who is driving the viewing party restrictions. I don't think Rogers would care about a viewing party like that because Leaf playoff games will get great ratings and the few thousand that go won't put much of a dent in those numbers.

 

[Peter D.]

Personally, I find the NHL has gotten too big for its own good and has gotten way too corporate that it has ruined the sport.  And yes, here in Canada, the crap product Sportsnet puts out has really soured me from watching in general.

But beyond that, the league has never done a good job in promoting its players and product.  The league is arguably bumping with the most star talent it has ever seen yet the product is near an all-time low.

Whoever thought the NHL could become like the NFL on a national scale was delusional.  Unless the NHL can monetize the game from a betting/fantasy sports perspective like the NFL does, it will never be in the same breath.

At this point, I don't even know what the league's and networks' next move is.  I'd say focus more on each region to maintain the core niche fan base before those fans start leaving the game as well.     

 

[Kin]

That viewing party thing made me wonder, didn't the Leafs basically do that for every away game at Maple Leafs Square in 2012? So maybe this is just a new policy but I wondered what would happen when Toronto makes the playoffs again and wants to continue doing that. Does the NHL tell them no? I imagine shutting that down in Tampa would play out a little different than trying to shut that down in Toronto.

The article suggests that its NBC who is driving the viewing party restrictions. I don't think Rogers would care about a viewing party like that because Leaf playoff games will get great ratings and the few thousand that go won't put much of a dent in those numbers.

Exactly. In a bigger market, even an American one, eight thousand fans isn't a big deal. But Tampa as a city is only a few hundred thousand people. The regional population is sizable but I'd bet that Tampa doesn't have quite the appeal outside the city limits as the Rangers or Blackhawks might.

 

[Kin]

Whoever thought the NHL could become like the NFL on a national scale was delusional.  Unless the NHL can monetize the game from a betting/fantasy sports perspective like the NFL does, it will never be in the same breath.   

I may be misreading you here but just to clarify nobody suggested the NHL could ever approach the size of the NFL but just that they could breed a similar sort of thing where people would tune into a game of the week sort of broadcast featuring two good teams regardless of whether or not one of the teams was local.

 

[Deebo]

That viewing party thing made me wonder, didn't the Leafs basically do that for every away game at Maple Leafs Square in 2012? So maybe this is just a new policy but I wondered what would happen when Toronto makes the playoffs again and wants to continue doing that. Does the NHL tell them no? I imagine shutting that down in Tampa would play out a little different than trying to shut that down in Toronto.

The article suggests that its NBC who is driving the viewing party restrictions. I don't think Rogers would care about a viewing party like that because Leaf playoff games will get great ratings and the few thousand that go won't put much of a dent in those numbers.

Exactly. In a bigger market, even an American one, eight thousand fans isn't a big deal. But Tampa as a city is only a few hundred thousand people. The regional population is sizable but I'd bet that Tampa doesn't have quite the appeal outside the city limits as the Rangers or Blackhawks might.

I wonder if the NHL might want to apply the same rules for all NHL clubs though, to hide the fact that they are being pushed around by the rights holder.

 

[Peter D.]

I may be misreading you here but just to clarify nobody suggested the NHL could ever approach the size of the NFL but just that they could breed a similar sort of thing where people would tune into a game of the week sort of broadcast featuring two good teams regardless of whether or not one of the teams was local.

Yeah, no, I wasn't suggesting the NHL could approach the size of the NFL.  [Although I do think there is thought (hope) within the league that they could make a bigger dent in the overall North American sporting industry.]

I believe my other point still stands.  Gambling on the NHL would need to explode exponentially for such a thing to take off.  Unless money is riding on the game and/or certain players need to get points for your fantasy team, I can't foresee a Dallas/Tampa Bay game of the week broadcast garnering massive viewership.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I wonder if the NHL might want to apply the same rules for all NHL clubs though, to hide the fact that they are being pushed around by the rights holder.

Right, and that's what I was wondering. Even leave Toronto/Rogers out of it, if Chicago was still in the playoffs and wanted to have as many viewing parties as they wanted, would the league tell one of their premier franchises/fan bases "no". Like I said, it's easy to push around Tampa.