What to do with JVR

[mr grieves]

So... that deadline, a draft, and a free agency season have come and gone, still no trade.

Recently asked the chances JvR finishes the season with the Leafs, Mirtle offered: "I'm going to go out on a relatively thick limb here and say 95-per-cent chance... you don't dump a 30-goal guy who's been a key piece of a dangerous power play for years for futures in the middle of a season where you feel you have a chance to do something. If that means he walks for nothing in the summer, he walks."

This seems, to me, dumb, especially since he's floating the idea that they'll trade Leivo for the 4th or just let him sit out the season and leave this summer as a UFA.

Consider, even selling "low" on JvR, the possible outcomes:

1. Trade JvR, let Leivo fill in = 2nd round pick (JvR) + Leivo = 40% chance of NHLer + 1 NHLer = 1.40 NHLers.

2. Let JvR play contract out & walk, trade Leivo for 4th = nothing + 15% chance of NHLer = 0.15 NHLers

3. Let JvR play contract out & walk, let Leivo become Group 6 UFA (doesn't play 39 games) = nothing + nothing = 0.00 NHLers

 

[herman]

Mirtle: "I'm going to go out on a relatively thick limb here and say 95-per-cent chance... you don't dump a 30-goal guy who's been a key piece of a dangerous power play for years for futures in the middle of a season where you feel you have a chance to do something. If that means he walks for nothing in the summer, he walks."

For reference: Mirtle's answer comes from
https://theathletic.com/126147/2017/10/13/mirtle-mailbag-small-sample-size-edition-why-josh-leivo-may-not-be-long-for-the-leafs/

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Unless they're moving him for another impact player (i.e a defenceman), I'd be pretty surprised if they dealt JVR during the season.

 

[herman]

The math here is a bit fuzzy. 'Nothing' is true in the sense that when you tally up the roster of assets at the end of the season, you get nothing.

Nothing in this case is also:
- JvR scoring ~25-30 G for the 2017-18 season*
- Opening up cap space of 4.25M + 0.612M to be spent elsewhere
- Opening opportunity for Kapanen, Grundstrom, Johnsson

* JvR and Bozak, by extension, guarantees that the Leafs have a dangerous (in both directions) third line option for a playoff drive; What is the opportunity cost in losing both of them at the deadline? How does it affect the lineup of youngsters when they see good soldiers for the team sold off for zero current impact?

 

[Kin]

It seems more and more like they're just going to hold onto him. Which is either a sign that they're willing to just let him walk or that they'll trry to sign him which is then a sign that they're more or less committed to trying to win with some version of their current defense.

I don't really get the "Trade JVR/Try to win" dichotomy though. You could trade JVR and, whether it comes internally via someone like Leivo or Kapanen or via a separate deadline deal, still have most of what you want going forward.

Hanging onto JVR and letting him walk seems less like a statement about trying to win and more like a timidity to make bold, necessary moves because you're afraid of rocking the boat.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

This seems, to me, dumb, especially since he's floating the idea that they'll trade Leivo for the 4th or just let him sit out the season and leave this summer as a UFA.

For those who don't know, Leivo needs to play 39 more NHL games this season or he becomes a Group 6 UFA after this season. Those are players 25 years or older with at least three professional seasons who haven't played 80 NHL games.

 

[Kin]

The math here is a bit fuzzy. 'Nothing' is true in the sense that when you tally up the roster of assets at the end of the season, you get nothing.

Nothing in this case is also:
- JvR scoring ~25-30 G for the 2017-18 season
- Opening up cap space of 4.25M + 0.612M to be spent elsewhere
- Opening opportunity for Kapanen, Grundstrom, Johnsson

#2 and #3 are true if you trade him or if you let him walk. Meanwhile #1 could just as easily be JVR scores 15-20 goals for the Leafs and Kapanen scores 5-10

 

[CarltonTheBear]

If we do look at re-signing JVR, Pierre LeBrun said the other day that Oshie's 8-year, $5.75mil AAV contract would likely be the basis:

Today on Insider Trading, Pierre LeBrun of the TSN and The Athletic made some comments related to the Leafs? biggest ticket pending UFA, James Van Riemsdyk.

Here is what he said:

There haven?t been any serious discussions, I?m told, on [JVR?s contract], but certainly some dialogue, and what I?m hearing is that I think that JVR would be willing to do an 8 year contract if it meant that it?s more cap friendly to the Toronto Maple Leafs? Think about TJ Oshie?s deal in Washington? JVR does not want to leave Toronto, does not want to leave the good ship.

https://theleafsnation.com/2017/10/11/lebrun-jvrs-contract-likely-to-be-similar-to-tj-oshies/

 

[herman]

The math here is a bit fuzzy. 'Nothing' is true in the sense that when you tally up the roster of assets at the end of the season, you get nothing.

Nothing in this case is also:
- JvR scoring ~25-30 G for the 2017-18 season
- Opening up cap space of 4.25M + 0.612M to be spent elsewhere
- Opening opportunity for Kapanen, Grundstrom, Johnsson

#2 and #3 are true if you trade him or if you let him walk. Meanwhile #1 could just as easily be JVR scores 15-20 goals for the Leafs and Kapanen scores 5-10

Right. It's more nuanced now than it was previously, pre-Matthews, when it would've been really easy to trade JvR for a 'better' return.

His trade value is decreasing and our return requirement is increasing.

 

[herman]

It's not like the Leafs were unwilling to trade JvR either (Hamonic's nixed deal).

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

JVR for Hamonic would have been a good deal, I hope they're still working on something along those lines.

 

[Kin]

Right. It's more nuanced now than it was previously, pre-Matthews, when it would've been really easy to trade JvR for a 'better' return.

I don't think it's more nuanced really. If you're not planning him re-signing him you should still trade him. True, you've stupidly let his value dwindle for no real reason but, you know, selling your magic beans for a nickel is still better than nothing.

The Leafs aren't under any pressure to win this year and the likelihood that JVR makes the difference there is pretty small regardless. Which isn't even to say that the Leafs could be both a buyer and a seller in that capacity. You could trade JVR for assets and then use those or other assets to acquire something that would be a JVR-replacement of sorts but who wouldn't have an almost immediate expiry date.

 

[herman]

I don't think it's more nuanced really. If you're not planning him re-signing him you should still trade him. True, you've stupidly let his value dwindle for no real reason but, you know, selling your magic beans for a nickel is still better than nothing.

The Leafs aren't under any pressure to win this year and the likelihood that JVR makes the difference there is pretty small regardless. Which isn't even to say that the Leafs could be both a buyer and a seller in that capacity. You could trade JVR for assets and then use those or other assets to acquire something that would be a JVR-replacement of sorts but who wouldn't have an almost immediate expiry date.

In principle, I agree with all that you're saying. I don't think the Leafs see JvR that way though. He's the bird in hand and they genuinely like what he (and Bozak and Komarov) currently offers (hence the asking price). Management also seems to value the experience of having their actual core go through extended playoff drives and letting them know they have the Front Office's trust and belief.

To me, that all means they won't let JvR go mid-season unless the return coming back yields the same or better impact to the current roster + future benefits. He's a very well liked member of the team, is a great influence for players learning how to take care of their bodies for the long grind, blah blah blah.

 

[mr grieves]

His trade value is decreasing and our return requirement is increasing.

How do you figure that?

The "return requirement" on the team's best players at the start of the rebuild (summer 2015?) was "something that gets them a chance at a core piece" -- a top prospect, a relatively high pick, whatever.

Well, two years on the Leafs have all the core forwards they need (JvR is not one of them), a decent group of defensemen (though not a 1D -- which JvR would never get you anyway), and a goalie.

The "return requirement" now, on all the expiring contracts, should be picks and prospects that might fill out the team's depth. 2021-22's Conner Brown or Carrick -- a cheap, good NHLer to replace the good NHLers you'e got who are no longer cheap.

To get those, you need to keep replenishing the pipeline.

 

[Kin]

In principle, I agree with all that you're saying. I don't think the Leafs see JvR that way though.

I wasn't really working under the assumption that the front office and I saw things the same way. My contention here is they're wrong.

 

[mr grieves]

* JvR and Bozak, by extension, guarantees that the Leafs have a dangerous (in both directions) third line option for a playoff drive; What is the opportunity cost in losing both of them at the deadline? How does it affect the lineup of youngsters when they see good soldiers for the team sold off for zero current impact?

I wouldn't discount the goals they'd lose, though I wouldn't worry much about them (say, JvR's 25-30 becomes Kap/Leivo's 15-20, so we're down 10 or so? Dump Komarov and might gain a few). But this is sort of interesting... I don't doubt that JvR is liked, but I suspect Matthews, Nylander, and the like would take JvR's departure as a challenge: it's their team now.

I don't really get the "Trade JVR/Try to win" dichotomy though. You could trade JVR and, whether it comes internally via someone like Leivo or Kapanen or via a separate deadline deal, still have most of what you want going forward.

Hanging onto JVR and letting him walk seems less like a statement about trying to win and more like a timidity to make bold, necessary moves because you're afraid of rocking the boat.

I think this is it. Absolutely.

 

[Bill_Berg]

I like to think there is a chance they can resign him on a reasonable deal, by reasonable I mean not what he can get on the open market. He's been with the team for so long and they're finally getting good there may be some incentive to stay to win. Assuming there's no steal of a deal out there, I would expect him to stay and walk in the off season if there is a contender that offers him something big. If there isn't, then maybe the door swings open for him staying for less than he could get on the open market. Of course there may be a line up of teams willing to offer huge contracts that JVR may think can win now, New Jersey maybe with the home town ties for example.

 

[herman]

How do you figure that?

The "return requirement" on the team's best players at the start of the rebuild (summer 2015?) was "something that gets them a chance at a core piece" -- a top prospect, a relatively high pick, whatever.

Well, two years on the Leafs have all the core forwards they need (JvR is not one of them), a decent group of defensemen (though not a 1D -- which JvR would never get you anyway), and a goalie.

The "return requirement" now, on all the expiring contracts, should be picks and prospects that might fill out the team's depth. 2021-22's Conner Brown or Carrick -- a cheap, good NHLer to replace the good NHLers you'e got who are no longer cheap.

To get those, you need to keep replenishing the pipeline.

I think where I was going with that was:
Earlier: young potential core piece + picks
Now: established defenseman

I don't dispute that we could trade JvR to a contender for assets and turn those assets (or other assets) around for what we want. I will say that is easier said than done

 

[Coco-puffs]

If you prescribe to the idea that the Leafs best chance to win a cup might actually be before the big 3 + Gardiner all have their next contracts kick in (*) then trading those magic beans for a nickel and hoping the prospects provide the same impact during one of the two seasons they have their best shot at it doesn't add up.

* I'm sure most of you will scoff at that idea outright.  I personally don't buy it entirely (mostly because I'd hate if that came true), but the only way we can extend it beyond the next two years is players taking discounts and great performances from guys on ELC filling out the roster.  When Darren Dreger is saying Matthews agent should be commanding a contract MORE than McDavid's come negotiation time ( I'm not kidding you, he said it http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/video/will-matthews-get-more-money-than-mcdavid~1231014 ) and Nylander has a season that puts him in Draisatal territory instead of Pastrnak/Ehlers it becomes a worst case scenario where the window actually was pretty short because we can't afford the depth you want to win.

 

[AvroArrow]

Unless they're moving him for another impact player (i.e a defenceman), I'd be pretty surprised if they dealt JVR during the season.

This.