2017-18 Toronto Maple Leafs - General Discussion

[AvroArrow]

Honestly, I would trade Komarov and slot Leivo or Kapanen there.  I know we're going for it, but he just doesn't seem to be contributing a whole lot this year.  Try to make something off him and put in a hungry young guy.

Edit: and I would same the same for Bozak.  Keep JvR for the run.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Honestly, I would trade Komarov and slot Leivo or Kapanen there.  I know we're going for it, but he just doesn't seem to be contributing a whole lot this year.  Try to make something off him and put in a hungry young guy.

Edit: and I would same the same for Bozak.  Keep JvR for the run.

At this point there's no reason we shouldn't be running a Martin-Moore-Komarov 4th line. He deserves to be there. I wouldn't have wanted to do that earlier because it nerfs his trade value but he's doing that all on his own with his play. Even with Matthews out I'd still run that line and try Kapanen or Leivo in the top-9.

 

[herman]

Leivo looked more assertive last night than his previous handful of games.

Komarov has really only been useful on the PK (his 5-on-3 coverage was smart).

 

[Coco-puffs]

Your point about the leads is a good one.

Playing safe on the lead generally leads to a lot more chances against (we are seeing it). Getting better at playing possession style is better defense in my opinion. But if the team sucks at playing the possession style with the lead, there isn?t much point in sticking with it.

Aaaaannnnddddd... I totally jinxed them.  No 3rd period blown leads (leading to a L) prior to last night, I bring it up, and they get their first one!

I completely agree with you that they need to play a more possession style game with the lead.  However, I don't want it coming with too many high-risk plays in the NZ either.  It feels like they dump-and-barely-chase a lot.  Brown and JvR said as much in their comments after the game, they need to get in there, win a battle, and establish a cycle.

Certain lines should be able to generate more of a cycle game (not sure the Bozak line would be all that great at it), but they are just dumping it and having the opposition come out of their end rather quickly alot.  Sure it limits rush chances against since they have to come through the whole team, but they end up in their own zone a ton because of it.

 

[Coco-puffs]

Honestly, I would trade Komarov and slot Leivo or Kapanen there.  I know we're going for it, but he just doesn't seem to be contributing a whole lot this year.  Try to make something off him and put in a hungry young guy.

Edit: and I would same the same for Bozak.  Keep JvR for the run.

At this point there's no reason we shouldn't be running a Martin-Moore-Komarov 4th line. He deserves to be there. I wouldn't have wanted to do that earlier because it nerfs his trade value but he's doing that all on his own with his play. Even with Matthews out I'd still run that line and try Kapanen or Leivo in the top-9.

Yeah, I've pushed the "I want the best defensive forward on the shutdown line" for a while but I'm no longer in that boat anymore. 

He needs to start on the 4th line, and be used higher up in the lineup in high-leverage defensive situations (ie, late in a game with the lead, defensive zone draws)

 

[Bullfrog]

Komarov has had just 1 game in the past 15 where his CF% was over 50%. And that was against Arizona and they're barely a NHL team. Basically ditto for Kadri, although he squeaked past 50% in one extra game by a single shot attempt. Komarov's at 38.2% in possession in his last 15 games and Kadri's at 41.6%. Kadri has 4 5-on-5 points in those games, Komarov has 0. Those are brutal numbers.

This is a crazy idea, I know, but maybe try not playing them together?

I understand the whole "Kadri's our shutdown center and future Selke-winner" talk, but he's also probably the most versatile offensive player on the team. I'd like to see Marleau-Kadri-Marner/Brown. Still defensively responsible, but with enough offensive talent to make stuff happen.

 

[Strangelove]

Honestly, I would trade Komarov and slot Leivo or Kapanen there.  I know we're going for it, but he just doesn't seem to be contributing a whole lot this year.  Try to make something off him and put in a hungry young guy.

Edit: and I would same the same for Bozak.  Keep JvR for the run.

At this point there's no reason we shouldn't be running a Martin-Moore-Komarov 4th line. He deserves to be there. I wouldn't have wanted to do that earlier because it nerfs his trade value but he's doing that all on his own with his play. Even with Matthews out I'd still run that line and try Kapanen or Leivo in the top-9.

Komarov has had just 1 game in the past 15 where his CF% was over 50%. And that was against Arizona and they're barely a NHL team. Basically ditto for Kadri, although he squeaked past 50% in one extra game by a single shot attempt. Komarov's at 38.2% in possession in his last 15 games and Kadri's at 41.6%. Kadri has 4 5-on-5 points in those games, Komarov has 0. Those are brutal numbers.

This is a crazy idea, I know, but maybe try not playing them together?

I understand the whole "Kadri's our shutdown center and future Selke-winner" talk, but he's also probably the most versatile offensive player on the team. I'd like to see Marleau-Kadri-Marner/Brown. Still defensively responsible, but with enough offensive talent to make stuff happen.

And it's not like Komarov wouldn't get any ice-time if he's demoted to the fourth line, given his value on the PK and the way Babcock plays the fourth line.

Having him on the second/first line absolutely torpedoes the offence of that line (to an astounding extent really - how can you go 30+ games without accidentally getting a primary assist?), so there's no justification for keeping him there.

 

[Kin]

MLSE is buying the Argos, news which is a bit surprising as I'd really thought they bought them a few years ago.

 

[Highlander]

MLSE is buying the Argos, news which is a bit surprising as I'd really thought they bought them a few years ago.

Man I just posted on this a minute ago on Rumours thread, how strange. Thanks Nik for the update. Wonder when the Jays will come into the fold.
For the Argos this is exactly what the CFL or soon to be NFL needs.

 

[disco]

Lads had their skate today downtown St. Paul organized by Gardiner's dad. In case you're wondering the two netminders are local HS students.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DzErF133rw0

 

[herman]

Numbers that I didn't bother to look up:
https://twitter.com/domluszczyszyn/status/941325674220064768

Not that I think Babcock's lineup decisions are the end-all and be-all, but clearly the priority for him is different than what most of us expect.

These deployment decisions read to me as someone who knows the team is already on pace to make the playoffs and is just saving energy. He doesn't care about winning via insurmountable scores (like I want us to), but happy to gut out a heavy road stretch in December with teaching the team how to grind out boring games (coaches hate excitement, it would seem). His goal is not to see how many goals Matthews, Nylander, and Marner can score in a single season, which is unfortunate for the fans, but maybe fortunate for our Cap.

If anything, it looks a lot like the more recent Team Canada Olympics Mens tactics: march up ice and jump on a mistake; unfortunately, our team is not quite as replete with talent.

We're not generating off our breakouts and not establishing the cycle. Someone on Reddit noted something that might point to why we're getting stymied in the NZ: we can come out of the blueline, but there's nothing to pass to after the red line because our wingers are generally standing still at the OZ blue line, instead of circling to present new lanes.

Check out this analysis of Carolina's system (which is basically Babcock's done better). The defense hang onto the puck to look for options. The Leafs give themselves very limited, stationary options (this is why their stretch passes failed so regularly).

 

[CarltonTheBear]

These deployment decisions read to me as someone who knows the team is already on pace to make the playoffs and is just saving energy. He doesn't care about winning via insurmountable scores (like I want us to), but happy to gut out a heavy road stretch in December with teaching the team how to grind out boring games (coaches hate excitement, it would seem). His goal is not to see how many goals Matthews, Nylander, and Marner can score in a single season, which is unfortunate for the fans, but maybe fortunate for our Cap.

I think this is a case where you might be trying to work too hard to positively justify a weird Babcock decision. I think most of us seem to agree that we changed or tweaked our system around November 1st. That's when we started playing a more dump and chase style. That's when we started to see stranger line-up and deployment decisions. And that was 12 games into the season when we were 7-5. Babcock absolutely did not think we had a playoff spot locked up at that point.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Agreed Carlton, the optimist in me wants to agree with herman, but at this point I think a significant chunk of it is wishful thinking.

It feels like those singing a positive tune (not herman and not on this site) are using a narrower and narrower slice of data to do so.

I?ve gone on record as being a hardcore Babcock fan before, but the level of deference to authority going on right now is pretty shocking.

 

[bustaheims]

Agreed Carlton, the optimist in me wants to agree with herman, but at this point I think a significant chunk of it is wishful thinking.

It feels like those singing a positive tune (not herman and not on this site) are using a narrower and narrower slice of data to do so.

I?ve gone on record as being a hardcore Babcock fan before, but the level of deference to authority going on right now is pretty shocking.

And, it's not like those of us who are being critical don't understand why he's trying these things, or what he's trying to accomplish. We're just seeing that, if it wasn't for the exceptional goaltending the team has receive, it would not have produced positive results in terms of wins and losses, because the on-ice representation of the strategy has been, in a word, poor.

I don't see too many people calling for him to be fired. Just for him to try something different than what he has over the last 6+ weeks.

 

[herman]

These deployment decisions read to me as someone who knows the team is already on pace to make the playoffs and is just saving energy. He doesn't care about winning via insurmountable scores (like I want us to), but happy to gut out a heavy road stretch in December with teaching the team how to grind out boring games (coaches hate excitement, it would seem). His goal is not to see how many goals Matthews, Nylander, and Marner can score in a single season, which is unfortunate for the fans, but maybe fortunate for our Cap.

I think this is a case where you might be trying to work too hard to positively justify a weird Babcock decision. I think most of us seem to agree that we changed or tweaked our system around November 1st. That's when we started playing a more dump and chase style. That's when we started to see stranger line-up and deployment decisions. And that was 12 games into the season when we were 7-5. Babcock absolutely did not think we had a playoff spot locked up at that point.

If I had worked harder, maybe I would've seen that point. Sad panda.

Although to be fair to myself (and for the sake of this joke), we're in the same division as Ottawa, Florida, Montreal, Detroit, Buffalo, and Boston. I daresay we were clear of the pack by game 5.

 

[herman]

Agreed Carlton, the optimist in me wants to agree with herman, but at this point I think a significant chunk of it is wishful thinking.

It feels like those singing a positive tune (not herman and not on this site) are using a narrower and narrower slice of data to do so.

I?ve gone on record as being a hardcore Babcock fan before, but the level of deference to authority going on right now is pretty shocking.

I think that's fair too; sometimes I think to myself, why do I bother trying to justify what is happening and why does it feel like I'm grasping at straws.

The thing is, this is pretty similar to what I would do as the coach (and front office) if I'm trying to create a player/talent-agnostic program of success. I'd draft for potential and talent, but I wouldn't want to let the ultra-talented dictate the terms of the team's play the way it did 4-5 years ago.

I'd want to recognize results, but not necessarily judge by goal results when evaluating. I'd want players to learn the structure first so they'd know when and how best to freewheel and use their creativity and gifts.

So I'm not really all that put off that Nylander is getting bum minutes and garbage lines (relatively speaking). He hasn't ever had to play defense before because he's been too offensively good since he picked up a stick. I don't want him to be just a JvR (as valuable as that is). The fact that he is even being developed should indicate how much potential the team sees in his abilities. You don't see JvR or Bozak being taught, or even tasked, with playing better defense, because they're expendables.

This is not to say everything is coming up roses; they're struggling and only winning on Andersen's stellar streak of play. I think winning while playing poorly is the worst thing that can happen to a team and I was glad we lost to Philadelphia after getting outworked and a bit out-lucked. I think their next set of adjustments should be learning how to generate while playing this tight defensively (e.g. opening up options, smarter dump ins, box out carrying lanes).

Often we judge a team as if it's a finished product; I think we're on the first step of something really promising.

 

[L K]

Agreed Carlton, the optimist in me wants to agree with herman, but at this point I think a significant chunk of it is wishful thinking.

It feels like those singing a positive tune (not herman and not on this site) are using a narrower and narrower slice of data to do so.

I?ve gone on record as being a hardcore Babcock fan before, but the level of deference to authority going on right now is pretty shocking.

And, it's not like those of us who are being critical don't understand why he's trying these things, or what he's trying to accomplish. We're just seeing that, if it wasn't for the exceptional goaltending the team has receive, it would not have produced positive results in terms of wins and losses, because the on-ice representation of the strategy has been, in a word, poor.

I don't see too many people calling for him to be fired. Just for him to try something different than what he has over the last 6+ weeks.

And during their 7-5 start if Andersen didn't play like ass, maybe the team wouldn't be making those changes in the first place.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

And during their 7-5 start if Andersen didn't play like ass, maybe the team wouldn't be making those changes in the first place.

Yup. The Leafs had a pretty good October. Sure, they needed to tighten up a little bit defensively, but if Andersen didn't have his annual 'start-the-season-in-November' moment a lot of those would have been masked. Nobody is expecting this team to be the best in the league defensively. They were playing to their strengths. That same style of play is what got the team into the playoffs last year and almost beat the Caps.

Babcock overreacts to all those games where we gave up a ton of goals by getting the team to play to their weaknesses and Andersen's play then masks how awful that makes the team look and we pick up more wins than we should be.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

If anything, it looks a lot like the more recent Team Canada Olympics Mens tactics: march up ice and jump on a mistake; unfortunately, our team is not quite as replete with talent.

You can't coach arguably the greatest hockey line-up ever assembled the same way you'd coach a random NHL team though. Just like Babcock can't coach the Leafs the same way he used to coach the Red Wings. They're two entirely different teams. You have to realize what a teams strengths and weaknesses are and coach to those specifically.

 

[herman]

If anything, it looks a lot like the more recent Team Canada Olympics Mens tactics: march up ice and jump on a mistake; unfortunately, our team is not quite as replete with talent.

You can't coach arguably the greatest hockey line-up ever assembled the same way you'd coach a random NHL team though. Just like Babcock can't coach the Leafs the same way he used to coach the Red Wings. They're two entirely different teams. You have to realize what a teams strengths and weaknesses are and coach to those specifically.

I don't disagree, and despite what I've been saying, I don't think Babcock is entirely on the right track. All I'm saying is he's asking the team to play to their weakness, theoretically, to turn it into less of a weakness. It's a bit like going into a job interview, right? Dress for the role you want, not the one you have.

After last night's game, and after the game in Philly, Babcock said he liked what he saw for the most part and that the Leafs played well but didn't execute in certain areas. My initial reaction was, "wut." Under the assumption that he's not lying, that reads as the players are getting into the right places and generally intending to do what the coach wants, but puck luck and the other team's better execution prevented the results consistently. Obviously, not know exactly what the coach is asking of them means this is just speculation as usual.

We saw shades of what this team can do in the third period. Formation was tight and options were open, but passes just missed (or went to the wrong sides of recipients), or the other team made good reads. I know urgency and compete are just cliches thrown to the media, but that's what quick execution should look like. We look slow because we still have to think about where to be.

As much as I'd like to run and gun all day (e'ryday), that's no more sustainable than dump n' chase. Come playoff time, there is no space to wheel and the team needs to learn how to make their own space. I'd rather they try to learn it now and take the lumps in the regular season than in round 1.