2018 Offseason Review

[herman]

https://twitter.com/capfriendly/status/1018659434200002560

Does this even warrant a new thread?

 

[rdowdall]

https://twitter.com/capfriendly/status/1018659434200002560

Does this even warrant a new thread?

This doesn't mean that they are actually going to try playing him next year does it?  Or does it mean that they plan for him to go a similar route to Liljgren?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

This doesn't mean that they are actually going to try playing him next year does it?  Or does it mean that they plan for him to go a similar route to Liljgren?

All it means is that he gets a nice signing bonus now instead of later. This won't have any effect on where he plays next season.

 

[herman]

This doesn't mean that they are actually going to try playing him next year does it?  Or does it mean that they plan for him to go a similar route to Liljgren?

All it means is that he gets a nice signing bonus now instead of later. This won't have any effect on where he plays next season.

It slides until he's 20 or plays 9 games with the Leafs. I think he's going to follow a similar path as Dermott.

Reposting this from the prospects thread, in case some of you don't dip into that pool:
https://twitter.com/regressIan/status/1018475738834653184

It's an interesting/stark study in contrast with this guy's other breakdown video of Evan Bouchard (2018 10th overall) who racked up a ton of points with the London Knights.

 

[herman]

I get what you're saying here with the NHL track records being short/non-existent/replacement level; I think in a Cap system, the path to success is to pick up a defenseman on the cheap (draft, import free-agency, trade throw-in) before they start to establish a record and build them up to the point they have value. Obviously a top 10- pick helps a lot, but top 10 defensemen picks are not nearly as strong an indicator of talent as it is for forwards.

I'll be sure to mention to Scott Niedermayer, Zdeno Chara, Chris Pronger, Drew Doughty and the like that their teams did success the wrong way. Maybe they'll give back their rings?

No matter how you add contributing NHL talent, the point is to add it. Believing in their ability to find that talent in harder to find places is fine but I don't think that's any more or less practical than, say, believing in their ability to also be able to find a truly elite defender in the top 10 even if other teams occasionally fail.

Perhaps I wasn't explicit enough in saying that was in the context of our current situation where top-10 picks are generally no longer within our reach (barring a prudent trade with a sad-sack partner). Your point is well taken though.

for all the talk of how Dubas and Co. really shifted things around and disrupted the system with all of their "We want to draft and develop good players" innovation I don't think there's a point in time where you can look at the Leafs roster and not see a handful of reasonably decent players who passed through the Leafs' AHL affiliate at some point. Is the current crop better than average? I'm not sure.

Right now we've got Nylander, Hyman, Brown, Kapanen, Johnsson, Dermott, Carrick, Leivo on the Leafs lineup that has gone through Dubas' Marlies. Gauthier and Soshnikov had spells with the team.

The last stable Leafs team of Nonis' era was 2013-14, and this was largely the work of Brian Burke, anyway. Here are the players that hit that roster coming through the AHL: Kadri, Carter Ashton, Trevor Smith, bits of Peter Holland, Troy Bodie (current director of pro scouting!), Jerry D'Amigo, Mark Fraser, James Reimer, Greg McKegg, Jerred Smithson, Drew McIntyre, Spencer Abbott, and Jamie Devane.

2014-15 was just as crazy/futile.

Outside of Kadri and Rielly and Gardiner (who are higher end picks), the best AHL grads from the Leafs own system I can last remember are Matt Stajan and Alex Steen (and Kyle Wellwood).

So that's the context in which I'm saying Dubas' Marlies program is something I'm excited about; admittedly it is a very, very low hurdle.

 

[Kin]

Right now we've got Nylander, Hyman, Brown, Kapanen, Johnsson, Dermott, Carrick, Leivo on the Leafs lineup that has gone through Dubas' Marlies. Gauthier and Soshnikov had spells with the team.

So one guy taken in the top 10, and so probably the one who was the least "developed" by the farm team, a couple of grinders, some depth and a couple of guys who are too young to have a real read on.

Still, kudos to Brian Burke and Dave Nonis for drafting so many of those guys, I suppose.

The last stable Leafs team of Nonis' era was 2013-14, and this was largely the work of Brian Burke, anyway. Here are the players that hit that roster coming through the AHL: Kadri, Carter Ashton, Trevor Smith, bits of Peter Holland, Troy Bodie (current director of pro scouting!), Jerry D'Amigo, Mark Fraser, James Reimer, Greg McKegg, Jerred Smithson, Drew McIntyre, Spencer Abbott, and Jamie Devane.

So, one guy drafted in the top 10, a pretty decent #1B sort of goalie, some grinders and some young guys who didn't turn into much.

That team also had guys like Gunnarsson, Kulemin and Bozak who, admittedly, didn't spend a ton of time in the AHL but were still drafted and developed through the system(they would have gone to prospect camps and the like). So, again, even in the darkest of times the Leafs have always had a handful of young guys they've developed.