2019 Toronto Maple Leafs Offseason Discussion

[Average Joes]

Something else to consider is that Gardiner may not be over the moon with the role the Leafs would be offering him. I think we've all generally accepted that the Leafs will be going with 4 forwards and a D on the PP and the PP will be handled by Rielly and Barrie. If some other team is offering Gardiner more of a PP focused role with maybe a defensive partner that would allow him to roam a bit more he may be better situated than he would be here.

I never understood the argument that he would come here for a year well under market value, play healthy and then next year make his money.  Unless he suddenly starts playing on the top PK unit his minutes are going to reduced. In the unlikely event that he was told he was going to play on the PK that is not going to help his point total$. It would be a poor career move for him to sign here. 

 

[Kin]

I never understood the argument that he would come here for a year well under market value, play healthy and then next year make his money. 

I think it's an argument with three basic ideas:

1. Teams are wary of his health. Playing here with reduced minutes would probably help him stay healthy for a year.

2. Despite reduced minutes he'd still be playing on a team with a lot of offensive firepower which represents a good opportunity for getting points.

3. He feels an attachment to the team/city and wants to be part of the playoff breakthrough we all hope will come.

I don't think anyone who put it forth did so with the idea that it was super-likely, just that it shouldn't be dismissed as wild fantasy either.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Let's face it, Jake can't be that hot of a commodity.  Top-drawer UFAs aren't still on the market a month after signings open. 

I think his back injury has significantly depressed his value. 

Mind you, if we could swap him out for Ceci at the same rate I'd do it in a New York minute.

Add in the fact he isn't all that good defensively and it really isn't that surprising. Def take him at 4.5.

 

[herman]

The fact that he isn?t good defensively is in fact an incorrect fact.

 

[princedpw]

Let's face it, Jake can't be that hot of a commodity.  Top-drawer UFAs aren't still on the market a month after signings open. 

I think his back injury has significantly depressed his value. 

I guess that must be it.  If you factor out the back injury, a cursory reading of the stats suggests that Jake was easily the best defenseman UFA on the market ? significantly better than Myers.  GMs are typically falling all over themselves to wildly overpay a guy like that.  My rule of thumb was typically to pick the highest number I thought a guy could possibly be worth and then add a couple million more. Also, pick a reasonable term for the contract. Then ignore that number, pick a larger one, double it and round down to the cap limit. So for Gardiner, that would mean that 7-8 million/year over 7 years wouldn?t have shocked me in the slightest if he was injury-free.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

GMs are typically falling all over themselves to wildly overpay a guy like that.

GM's typically fall over themselves to wildly overpay for players that "eye tests" despise but analytics love?

 

[OldTimeHockey]

GMs are typically falling all over themselves to wildly overpay a guy like that.

GM's typically fall over themselves to wildly overpay for players that "eye tests" despise but analytics love?

You would think that someone would be able to see past the 'eye test' and see that he is a solid defensemen.

I cannot stand the way he plays but I'll fully admit that it's all based on what I see. When you look at his numbers, he is obviously a real solid player. It truly is a head scratcher that he hasn't been signed. Maybe he wants to go home to Minnesota? Do they have a defense they'd need to make room for him?

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/ineffectivemath/status/1156560544972886019

Jake-effect

Edit: note that Gardiner was deployed sans Zaitsev when chasing the score, usually with Rielly and Matthews and Tavares and Marner and Kadri (and Nylander eventually).

 

[Jolly good show chaps]

https://twitter.com/Account4hockey/status/1155906201764470784

I've said before I think New Jersey and Gardiner seem like such a perfect fit. Maybe they want to dump either Vatanen or Severson somewhere first. Although they do have tons of cap space at the moment so I'm not sure why they'd wait.

I do think though that Gardiner coming back here on a 1-year deal is a pipedream. Despite not signing yet I'm sure he'll eventually get a 4-5 year deal for at least $5mil somewhere. It's not the deal he originally wanted but it's still pretty good coin.

New York Rangers with Shattenkirk bought out?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

New York Rangers with Shattenkirk bought out?

Unlikely. The Rangers were actually well over the cap, so the Shattenkirk buyout just barely gets them under.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

My fantasy line-up assuming 1) Ceci gets traded, 2) Marner takes a fair bridge deal, and 3) Gardiner and Shattenkirk both take less to be Leafs:

Gardiner-Rielly
Muzzin-Barrie
Dermott-Shattenkirk

I mean none of those 3 things are happening but it's August 1st so what the heck.

 

[herman]

How come fantasy land does not include trading Ceci for Parayko or Jones?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

How come fantasy land does not include trading Ceci for Parayko or Jones?

Because he was traded for Kreider at 99.9% retained salary.

 

[Frank E]

My fantasy was Subban, but that ship's sailed, FFS.

I think they could really use some jam like Kreider, especially with Kadri gone now.

 

[Kin]

I think they could really use some jam like Kreider, especially with Kadri gone now.

My hunch right now is that if/when the team looks like it needs shaking up, they'll look to trade either Kapanen or Johnsson for someone like that.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

I think they could really use some jam like Kreider, especially with Kadri gone now.

My hunch right now is that if/when the team looks like it needs shaking up, they'll look to trade either Kapanen or Johnsson for someone like that.

I would hope if that was the case, the player to be moved would be Kapanen. He just doesn't bring as much to the table as Johnsson IMO

 

[Frank E]

I think they could really use some jam like Kreider, especially with Kadri gone now.

My hunch right now is that if/when the team looks like it needs shaking up, they'll look to trade either Kapanen or Johnsson for someone like that.

I know it was discussed before, but the regular season is starting to be a little irrelevant, as long as you're among the 16 teams out of 31 getting into the playoffs.

So maybe Dubas will worry about physical players when he needs them for playoff time.

 

[Kin]

I would hope if that was the case, the player to be moved would be Kapanen. He just doesn't bring as much to the table as Johnsson IMO

Well, without really agreeing or disagreeing with you there if your rationale is that Johnsson is better than Kapanen then it stands to reason that trading the worse player limits what you can get back as well.

 

[sickbeast]

As much as I love Kapanen, his elite speed will decline with age whereas Johnsson's superior skill set will stand the test of time more reliably IMO.  If the Leafs can get a decent defenseman for Kapanen it could be a good move.  Kapanen is cheap for what he brings, though, and he plays a really solid defensive role despite being a forward.  I doubt Dubas could pull off a trade that makes the team better overall while helping our cap situation.

 

[Bill_Berg]

I doubt they're so different that one will fetch a better player, outside of a GMs personal preference, which I assume will not be consistent. Some will prefer Kapanen, some will prefer Johnsson.