2020 NHL Draft

[herman]

Scott had an impressive WHL career but man I'm leery of expecting anything out of a goalie who has major hip surgery forcing him to miss an entire season.

The surgery was reported to be repairing an impingement issue; it was deemed successful. Would that not give him better range of motion going forward in the long term after recovery/physio?

Similar to Stroman's major injury, it's an opportunity to step back from the game and rebuild fundamentals (now with the NHL dev team, rather than WHL team resources).

 

[Frank E]

Does anyone else see apostrophes as question marks in the posts?

I see all your posts as question marks.

...

But yeah. *shrugs*

My posts are very questionable.

 

[L K]

Scott had an impressive WHL career but man I'm leery of expecting anything out of a goalie who has major hip surgery forcing him to miss an entire season.

The surgery was reported to be repairing an impingement issue; it was deemed successful. Would that not give him better range of motion going forward in the long term after recovery/physio?

Similar to Stroman's major injury, it's an opportunity to step back from the game and rebuild fundamentals (now with the NHL dev team, rather than WHL team resources).

Yes, but.  I'm not saying write him off.  Just that with him having to rebuild his style of play we don't know what kind of goaltender he will be at this point.

 

[Highlander]

Great Scott the Leafs are up against a Woll. 

 

[Guilt Trip]

Scott had an impressive WHL career but man I'm leery of expecting anything out of a goalie who has major hip surgery forcing him to miss an entire season.

The surgery was reported to be repairing an impingement issue; it was deemed successful. Would that not give him better range of motion going forward in the long term after recovery/physio?

Similar to Stroman's major injury, it's an opportunity to step back from the game and rebuild fundamentals (now with the NHL dev team, rather than WHL team resources).

Yes, but.  I'm not saying write him off.  Just that with him having to rebuild his style of play we don't know what kind of goaltender he will be at this point.

If the surgery has limited his movements or whatever else physically, then yes they'd have to adjust his style, but there's no mention of anything but the surgery being a success. There's a big difference to adjusting style to adjusting play. I think of it as having Barb Underhill teaching them about skating. She isn't changing their style of play, just helping an aspect of it to make them better players.

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

Askarov:

https://twitter.com/hcSKA/status/1306648599598632962

 

[Big Daddy]

With the 15th selection in the 2020 NHL draft the Toronto Maple Leafs select from Chicoutimi of the QMJHL
LAPIERRE, HENDRIX

 

[Zee]

I know people are saying Askarov might be the next goalie taken in the first round, but man you gotta be careful with goalies.  It's like voodoo trying to figure these guys out.  Stole this list from some article on all goalies taken in the first round since 2000.

Spencer Knight (2019, 13th overall)
Jake Oettinger (2017, 26th overall)
Ilya Samsonov (2015, 22nd overall)
Andre Vasilevskiy (2012, 19th overall)
Jack Campbell (2010, 11th overall)
Chet Pickard (2008, 18th overall)
Jonathan Bernier (2006, 11th overall)
Carey Price (2005, 5th overall)
Al Montoya (2004, 6th overall)
Marc-Andre Fleury (2003, 1st overall)
Kari Lehtonen (2002, 2nd overall)
Pascal Leclaire (2001, 8th overall)
Rick DiPietro (2000, 1st overall)

Look at some of the names on that list. Chet Pickard?  Who?  Al Montoya was 6th overall? lol.  You hope Askarov is closer to Vasilevskiy and Price instead of some of the other guys.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I know people are saying Askarov might be the next goalie taken in the first round, but man you gotta be careful with goalies.  It's like voodoo trying to figure these guys out.  Stole this list from some article on all goalies taken in the first round since 2000.

That's 13 goalies... 2 of them are Vezina winners. That's 15%. 1 of them has multiple Stanley Cups, a few of them have had decent careers as average starters, some flamed out either due to injury or mediocrity, and some of them are still pretty early in their careers but still have a lot of hype around them. I'm not saying that drafting goalies in the 1st round isn't a risk, but I mean if you took a list of every defenceman drafted in the 1st round since 2000 I'm pretty sure you'd see a pretty similar trend.

 

[Kin]

Feels like you could probably say effectively the same thing a out draft picks at any position.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Spencer Knight (2019, 13th overall)
Jake Oettinger (2017, 26th overall)
Ilya Samsonov (2015, 22nd overall)
Andre Vasilevskiy (2012, 19th overall)

I'd also like to think that scouting and evaluation goalies has probably evolved quite a bit since Pascal Leclaire was drafted 8th overall in 2001. These are the last 4 goalies drafted in the 1st round. Vasilevskiy is one of the best goalies in the league. Samsonov is about to likely take over Washington's net from Brayden Holtby. Oettinger's just 21 years old and had a pretty impressive debut AHL season leading all rookie goalies in save percentage. Spencer Knight's just 19 years old so obviously it's impossible to say much about him but his draft+1 year in the NCAA was basically as good as you could have possibly expected: he led all freshmen goalies in save percentage and was 4th overall in wins.

We could actually be in an era where goalies are getting under-rated at drafts and the Leafs might be smart to capitalize on that.

 

[louisstamos]

I know people are saying Askarov might be the next goalie taken in the first round, but man you gotta be careful with goalies.  It's like voodoo trying to figure these guys out.  Stole this list from some article on all goalies taken in the first round since 2000.

Spencer Knight (2019, 13th overall)
Jake Oettinger (2017, 26th overall)
Ilya Samsonov (2015, 22nd overall)
Andre Vasilevskiy (2012, 19th overall)
Jack Campbell (2010, 11th overall)
Chet Pickard (2008, 18th overall)
Jonathan Bernier (2006, 11th overall)
Carey Price (2005, 5th overall)
Al Montoya (2004, 6th overall)
Marc-Andre Fleury (2003, 1st overall)
Kari Lehtonen (2002, 2nd overall)
Pascal Leclaire (2001, 8th overall)
Rick DiPietro (2000, 1st overall)

Look at some of the names on that list. Chet Pickard?  Who?  Al Montoya was 6th overall? lol.  You hope Askarov is closer to Vasilevskiy and Price instead of some of the other guys.

There's a goalie taken in the first round that seems to be missing from this list...I just can't put my finger on it...

 

[Zee]

I know people are saying Askarov might be the next goalie taken in the first round, but man you gotta be careful with goalies.  It's like voodoo trying to figure these guys out.  Stole this list from some article on all goalies taken in the first round since 2000.

That's 13 goalies... 2 of them are Vezina winners. That's 15%. 1 of them has multiple Stanley Cups, a few of them have had decent careers as average starters, some flamed out either due to injury or mediocrity, and some of them are still pretty early in their careers but still have a lot of hype around them. I'm not saying that drafting goalies in the 1st round isn't a risk, but I mean if you took a list of every defenceman drafted in the 1st round since 2000 I'm pretty sure you'd see a pretty similar trend.

True enough, but given that there's only 1 starting goalie spot per team the goalie has to be really exceptional.  When you use a first round pick on a goalie you're basically saying you want him to turn into a bonafide starter. Anything short of that and it feels like a wasted first round pick.  With a forward or D you can convince yourself the first rounder wasn't wasted if he plays even 3rd line or 2nd pair D and is reliable (for anyone outside the top 3-5 of course)

 

[CarltonTheBear]

There's a goalie taken in the first round that seems to be missing from this list...I just can't put my finger on it...

Tuuukkkaaaaa... so that makes it 3 of 14 goalies drafted in the 1st round who have won a Vezina. I'll take the 20% chance Askarov could do that.

 

[Zee]

There's a goalie taken in the first round that seems to be missing from this list...I just can't put my finger on it...

Tuuukkkaaaaa... so that makes it 3 of 14 goalies drafted in the 1st round who have won a Vezina. I'll take the 20% chance Askarov could do that.

Who's missing?  I took that list from a website so I make no claims to it's reliability

Damn, how did they forget Rask?

 

[Zee]

Given how great Carter Hart has looked I was shocked that he wasn't a first rounder.  Same draft the Leafs took Korshkov ahead of him.

 

[bustaheims]

I know people are saying Askarov might be the next goalie taken in the first round, but man you gotta be careful with goalies.  It's like voodoo trying to figure these guys out.  Stole this list from some article on all goalies taken in the first round since 2000.

So, this is clearly actually a list of the 1st goalie taken each year, if they were taken in the first round. It's missing a number of picks.

Here's just from the first 3 years:

2000:
Brent Krahn (9)

2001:
Dan Blackburn (10)
Jason Bacashihua (26)
Adam Munro (29)

2002:
Cam Ward (25)
Hannu Toivonen (29)

 

[CarltonTheBear]

True enough, but given that there's only 1 starting goalie spot per team the goalie has to be really exceptional.  When you use a first round pick on a goalie you're basically saying you want him to turn into a bonafide starter. Anything short of that and it feels like a wasted first round pick.  With a forward or D you can convince yourself the first rounder wasn't wasted if he plays even 3rd line or 2nd pair D and is reliable (for anyone outside the top 3-5 of course)

Even this seems a bit debatable though especially at a time where we're seeing more and more teams have to rely on 2 goalies. Like if a forward who ends up being a reliable 3rd liner isn't seen as a complete waste of a 1st round pick why would a goalie who becomes a high end back-up or reliable 1B guy be seen that way?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

So, this is clearly actually a list of the 1st goalie taken each year, if they were taken in the first round. It's missing a number of picks.

Oh no my Vezina percentage probability has been ruined!

 

[bustaheims]

A few other 1st round goalies of note:

Devyn Dubnyk (14, 2004)
Cory Schneider (26, 2004)
Tuukka Rask (21, 2005)
Semyon Varlamov (23, 2006)

There are a bunch of guys I didn't list who didn't make much of an impact at the NHL level, but, overall, a quick review shows that drafting a goalie in the 1st round is kind of a 50/50 proposition - it's mostly guys that either become starters or don't crack an NHL roster on a long-term basis, with some outliers on either side (elite goalies, complete busts, etc).