2021-22 Toronto Maple Leafs General Discussion

[ZBBM]

This is a good, finessed convo but really I don't think there is any serious question that Dubas is gone if they miss the playoffs or else blow up again in R1. 

Well, that I don't agree with. I don't think anything is set in stone like that. I think that in order for this organization to make a major move they're going to do it with an actual gameplan in mind and not just change for change's sake. Moving on from Dubas, and definitely from Shanahan if that's a consideration, is going to be examined and taken with a definitive alternate route in mind. If they look at the landscape and don't see a better option, we're not going to get another Nonis-esque placeholder just because people are upset.

I presume the folks who make the decisions have already begun looking ahead to all contingencies.

 

[Highlander]

He set up the Marlies to be a destination for cheap NHL depth before he was a GM.
Tavares, for all the handwringing about the cap hit and the trickledown effect it had on Matthews/Marner, was something ownership and pretty much everyone was on board with (and probably more profitable than not).
Muzzin, Brodie additions have solidified a defense corps that several other hall of fame Leafs GMs couldn?t seem to pull off.
1st in the division in forever (yeah yeah North Division sucked) putting up great defensive metrics in an offense heavy matchup. Record breaking goalie, first Leaf rocket winner ever.
Drafts under his control have fared better than the ones under Lou/Hunter.

I think most GMs in contending position get a bit more rope than 3 years. Yzerman/Sakic got quite a bit of rope amidst early disappointment. It?s not like there is a track record of unsound judgment here. The things that didn?t work were mostly sound bets that landed wrong. Sure he was gifted 3 key offensive talents, but also hamstrung with cap albatrosses, which he clawed out of losing a mid-1st rounder.

I tend to agree with Herman, we have to consider the Covid interruption, we have to consider Keefe is having his first full training camp, playing at home in front of fans,  bringing in some interesting pieces this year.  We need to get his draft picks into our Marlies/Growlers system and let them mature.  I want the Leafs to win so bad before I croak, but changing for the sake of changing at this stage in the game seems to me to be insane.  I guess the proof will be in the playoffs. 

 

[OldTimeHockey]

Goal scoring should trump passing and assists. 

I can't bring myself to agree with this.

 

[Kin]

I presume the folks who make the decisions have already begun looking ahead to all contingencies.

I do too but until the decision is actually in front of them they won't know what the available alternatives might be.

 

[Kin]

This is a good, finessed convo but really I don't think there is any serious question that Dubas is gone if they miss the playoffs or else blow up again in R1. 

Well, that I don't agree with. I don't think anything is set in stone like that. I think that in order for this organization to make a major move they're going to do it with an actual gameplan in mind and not just change for change's sake. Moving on from Dubas, and definitely from Shanahan if that's a consideration, is going to be examined and taken with a definitive alternate route in mind. If they look at the landscape and don't see a better option, we're not going to get another Nonis-esque placeholder just because people are upset.

I wish we kept Lou.  He clearly knows how to do his job.  Bringing a sad Islander's team to Cup contention and without Tavares mind you

That's a hard pass. His drafts were pretty bad, his signings not much better. He's a major reason this team is stalling.

 

[Arn]

This is a good, finessed convo but really I don't think there is any serious question that Dubas is gone if they miss the playoffs or else blow up again in R1. 

Well, that I don't agree with. I don't think anything is set in stone like that. I think that in order for this organization to make a major move they're going to do it with an actual gameplan in mind and not just change for change's sake. Moving on from Dubas, and definitely from Shanahan if that's a consideration, is going to be examined and taken with a definitive alternate route in mind. If they look at the landscape and don't see a better option, we're not going to get another Nonis-esque placeholder just because people are upset.

I wish we kept Lou.  He clearly knows how to do his job.  Bringing a sad Islander's team to Cup contention and without Tavares mind you

That's a hard pass. His drafts were pretty bad, his signings not much better. He's a major reason this team is stalling.

I actually think it?s obvious the Leafs win that round v the Habs if everyone is clean shaven.

 

[jonlleafs]

Goal scoring should trump passing and assists. 

I can't bring myself to agree with this.

I don't mean like it's a significantly lesser skill (i.e. Oates or Marner in this case), but the guy will the ability to change the game with a goal, I feel is worth just a bit more.  If we value a goal scorer as 100%, I'd say a very good passer as 80-90% in value.  Applying this same percentage, I think it can be applied to the salary as well

 

[OldTimeHockey]

Goal scoring should trump passing and assists. 

I can't bring myself to agree with this.

I don't mean like it's a significantly lesser skill (i.e. Oates or Marner in this case), but the guy will the ability to change the game with a goal, I feel is worth just a bit more.  If we value a goal scorer as 100%, I'd say a very good passer as 80-90% in value.  Applying this same percentage, I think it can be applied to the salary as well

If you're talking "who's going to get paid more"...then sure.

If you're talking who's more important to the actual game, i'd say they're pretty even.

 

[jonlleafs]

Goal scoring should trump passing and assists. 

I can't bring myself to agree with this.

I don't mean like it's a significantly lesser skill (i.e. Oates or Marner in this case), but the guy will the ability to change the game with a goal, I feel is worth just a bit more.  If we value a goal scorer as 100%, I'd say a very good passer as 80-90% in value.  Applying this same percentage, I think it can be applied to the salary as well

If you're talking "who's going to get paid more"...then sure.

If you're talking who's more important to the actual game, i'd say they're pretty even.

Well, more towards who gets paid more, but yeah, a great passer can definitely be a game breaker

 

[jonlleafs]

This is a good, finessed convo but really I don't think there is any serious question that Dubas is gone if they miss the playoffs or else blow up again in R1. 

Well, that I don't agree with. I don't think anything is set in stone like that. I think that in order for this organization to make a major move they're going to do it with an actual gameplan in mind and not just change for change's sake. Moving on from Dubas, and definitely from Shanahan if that's a consideration, is going to be examined and taken with a definitive alternate route in mind. If they look at the landscape and don't see a better option, we're not going to get another Nonis-esque placeholder just because people are upset.

I wish we kept Lou.  He clearly knows how to do his job.  Bringing a sad Islander's team to Cup contention and without Tavares mind you

That's a hard pass. His drafts were pretty bad, his signings not much better. He's a major reason this team is stalling.

I disagree here with his signings:
Kadri - $4.5M AAV - 6yrs
Rielly - $5.0M AAV - 6yrs
Andersen - $5.0M AAV - 5yrs
Hyman - $2.25 AAV - 4yrs

Worst signings were:
Zaitsev - to a 7yr deal
Marleau - 1yr too many

Drafted:
Auston Matthews
Timothy Liljegren
Adam Brooks
Carl Grundstrom
Joseph Woll

Overall, I think his signings weren't bad.  They were cost-conscious, unlike Dubas, who just threw free agent money at the kids (except Nylander. His is turning out to be a steal).

 

[L K]

Well Keefe got a 2-year extension so that might suggest Dubas has a little more leeway to make a core altering trade if this year doesn?t go well

 

[Kin]

Andersen - $5.0M AAV - 5yrs

Was Andersen a great #1 capable of taking the team anywhere? No. All that signing did is take the team out of the rebuild too fast before they had the secondary talent they needed. Likewise the decisions to not deal Bozak or JVR when the team could have got something for them.

Worst signings were:
Zaitsev - to a 7yr deal
Marleau - 1yr too many

Drafted:
Auston Matthews
Timothy Liljegren
Adam Brooks
Carl Grundstrom
Joseph Woll

That's really not good for where the team was drafting. There were a lot of good players available that they missed out on. The Korshkov pick especially.

Overall, I think his signings weren't bad.  They were cost-conscious, unlike Dubas, who just threw free agent money at the kids (except Nylander. His is turning out to be a steal).

None of Lamoriello's signings were with guys who had put up big numbers. Rielly had a career high of 36 points, Kadri's career was in trouble, Hyman hadn't done anything. Say what you want about Dubas, he was negotiating with young players who had put up world beating numbers. When Lamoriello had a chance to spend to improve the team in free agency, he almost always whiffed. Let's not forget that the Andersen signing was after the team had already given up a 1st and a 2nd for him. The Leafs could have been in a much better position than they are if Lamoriello had just been patient with the rebuild, traded expiring guys for assets and drafted well.

 

[jonlleafs]

Let's not forget that the Andersen signing was after the team had already given up a 1st and a 2nd for him. The Leafs could have been in a much better position than they are if Lamoriello had just been patient with the rebuild, traded expiring guys for assets and drafted well.

I mean, you make some very good points in the last couple of lines.  I'm all for keeping draft picks and building.  The only time we should have went for it was maybe last season and even still I didn't feel comfortable giving up a 1st for Foligno.

I just think Lou would have been better at negotiating with the kids than Dubas ever has.  He treats them like best friends when he needs to think like a business owner more.

 

[L K]

Let's not forget that the Andersen signing was after the team had already given up a 1st and a 2nd for him. The Leafs could have been in a much better position than they are if Lamoriello had just been patient with the rebuild, traded expiring guys for assets and drafted well.

I mean, you make some very good points in the last couple of lines.  I'm all for keeping draft picks and building.  The only time we should have went for it was maybe last season and even still I didn't feel comfortable giving up a 1st for Foligno.

I just think Lou would have been better at negotiating with the kids than Dubas ever has.  He treats them like best friends when he needs to think like a business owner more.

Lou never gave A class bonuses until Matthews.  I don?t think there is any guarantee that he wouldn?t have had to pay significantly for them.  He offered Tavares more money than the Leafs

 

[Kin]

I just think Lou would have been better at negotiating with the kids than Dubas ever has.  He treats them like best friends when he needs to think like a business owner more.

I feel like I've said my piece about those contracts and don't want to go into them again in detail but I'll say again that the difference between the contracts Dubas signed with "the kids" and what people might have wanted them to be realistically is not a big difference in the grand scheme of things. It would be even less if the cap hadn't stalled because of Covid. If that's the standard you're using, I don't think it's a fair one.

 

[lamajama]

I think the Isles success is more related to Trots and his style of play that is being demanded. Lou has made some pretty questionable signings on the Island (Uncle Leo etc) that looks pretty bad.

 

[Kaberle15]

I think the Isles success is more related to Trots and his style of play that is being demanded. Lou has made some pretty questionable signings on the Island (Uncle Leo etc) that looks pretty bad.

Totally agree with this.

 

[bustaheims]

I think the Isles success is more related to Trots and his style of play that is being demanded. Lou has made some pretty questionable signings on the Island (Uncle Leo etc) that looks pretty bad.

Yup. Lou hasn't done much of anything to improve the talent level of the Islanders, but, with the systems Trotz has been able to put in place, they're able to punch above their weight class. They've become a smothering defensive team with a below average offence. They don't appear to have a ton of offensive talent in the pipeline, either. If the Rangers, Flyers, or Devils take a real step forward this season, there's a good chance the Islanders miss the playoffs.

 

[bustaheims]

I disagree here with his signings:
Kadri - $4.5M AAV - 6yrs
Rielly - $5.0M AAV - 6yrs
Andersen - $5.0M AAV - 5yrs
Hyman - $2.25 AAV - 4yrs

Worst signings were:
Zaitsev - to a 7yr deal
Marleau - 1yr too many

Drafted:
Auston Matthews
Timothy Liljegren
Adam Brooks
Carl Grundstrom
Joseph Woll

Overall, I think his signings weren't bad.  They were cost-conscious, unlike Dubas, who just threw free agent money at the kids (except Nylander. His is turning out to be a steal).

You forgot Matt Martin's 4 year, $10 contract. Also, other than Matthews - who any GM with a pair of braincells to rub together would have taken in the same spot - his drafts have yet to produce an established full-time NHL player. Grundstrom is borderline, and Liljegren might get there. But the rest? I don't think there will be any that become NHL regulars.

Lou's major plays in free agency were bad and, when it comes to the draft, he wasn't really any better. He made some decent trades during the last days of the teardown phase of the team, but that's about the best I can say about his time here.

 

[herman]

I have a bit of different take on things. While I can concede that it's a results-based performance that he should be ultimately evaluated, I put more weight into the regular season than the playoffs. And the results have been very good.

What do you do with a GM whose team wins the President's Trophy three years in a row but gets bounced in the 1st round each time?

To be clear, I'm more responding to the question of "Will Dubas be in hot water if this season doesn't see playoff success" than I am whether or not he should and I think the reality is that without winning a playoff series, there will be a great deal of pressure to make changes.

The should is a thornier question but I think where I ultimately come down on it is is that the Front Office is an area where the Leafs aren't artificially constrained by the cap so it's an area where they can't just be adequate, they need to be league leading. I appreciate that some of these standards are akin to judging a player by whether or not he's in the McDavid/Crosby/Matthews conversation but considering the Leafs' financial muscle, that's the standard they need to be setting.

Thank you for this clarification. I think I was coming from assessing Dubas? floor, so to speak. He isn?t going to necessarily sink the team with his decisions, but you are right in that his ceiling doesn?t have much evidence to demonstrate he is the cream of the crop that MLSE should be able to afford.