Sort of a follow up on the "how damaging was making the playoffs?" discussion on the GDT, and related to the issue of what to do with the expiring deals (Komarov, JvR, Bozak)....
I think the crucial elements, the core, are in place. The Leafs have got the 4 forwards, 3 defensemen (rather than one stud, alas), and starting goaltender they'll try to contend with. And, compared to the last time the team sniffed the playoffs, I'm pretty confident this core has a lot less wrong with it than that one. The Leafs' ultimate success will hinge on all sorts of stuff -- injuries, luck, etc. -- but, among them, something the management can control: good supporting players and depth.
So the biggest question I've got, from the armchair, is whether the NHL-ready prospects in the system -- let's call em Leivo, Kapanen, Soshnikov, and Johnsson -- can be serviceable, under-$3m/year options in the top-9 for the next 3 or 4 years. If they can be that, the team's good to go (i.e. start contending), even with Matthews, Marner, Nylander, and maybe Gardiner set for big raises in the next few years. If they can't, the Leafs are probably looking at Option B: bring back one or more of the expiring UFAs or filling the hole on the UFA market -- in either case, devoting more dollars to the position than they'd otherwise have to. Option C, of course, is to be a top-heavy, middling team.
Making the playoffs last year and thinking they're close (or winning the draft lottery in '16 and going into win-now mode) has meant we're not getting the chance to see whether any of the RFAs can really excel in a NHL top-9 role. Separate from the asset-management issue of whether it'd be nice to have picks and prospects for JvR, Bozak, and Komarov, by keeping them in the line-up night in and night out to win now, the Leafs going into the crucial "how do you build a deep, talented roster in a cost-effective way with lots of cap committed to a core" phase blind...
Or maybe they're not, and what they're seeing in AHL games and at practice is sufficient for them to know that there are internal replacements for the expiring UFAs, and, even if they don't recoup assets on JvR & c., there's at least going to be cost-controlled top-9 players on the team going forward.
Still, as a fan, I'd like to see that for myself. Unfortunately, Babcock's win-now static lineup means, barring an injury, we won't be able to...
The armchair concern: I worry that the most likely outcome is a bad one -- to wit, either they get attached to/ worry they can't compete without some of the expiring UFAs and sign them to deals that'll make the team less competitive than it ought to be over the long term (option B above) or they end up surprised to find what's in the system can't quite hack it and scramble to fill roster holes, now without the assets they'd've got if they had moved JvR, Bozak, Komarov (option C).
All of which comes down to something folks around here have been saying for a while: (1) trade the soon-to-be UFAs yesterday, (2) see where you get with something like...
Hyman - Matthews - Brown
Marleau - Nylander - Kapanen
Leivo - Kadri -Marner
Martin - Moore - Soshnikov
(I'd wager playoffs, early exit)
And (3) use the assets from Bozak, JvR, and Komarov to (a) keep the prospect pool full or (b) plug the holes that become apparent as the above lineup plays a bunch of games.
