Armchair GM 2018-2019

[Frank E]

I didn't mean to put words in your mouth there, but didn't they already fool around with Rielly on the right-side last year or something?

Last season? No. He pretty much exclusively played with Hainsey who was on the right side. He saw very rare spot duty with Dermott and Gardiner from time to time when the Leafs needed a goal but the minutes there were very slim.

Back in the Matt Hunwick days though Rielly did play the right side. His numbers took a bit of a hit from what he was used to but it's difficult to say if that's because he played on a different side or because he played with Matt Hunwick.

It must have been the Hunwick days that I was thinking of, but yeah, it wasn't great.

 

[mr grieves]

Back in the Matt Hunwick days though Rielly did play the right side. His numbers took a bit of a hit from what he was used to but it's difficult to say if that's because he played on a different side or because he played with Matt Hunwick.

When Rielly and Gardiner have played together, they did well -- and one of them was on the right side.

Think link to Corsica's stats of Gardiner's partners just might work.

 

[bustaheims]

Dermott saw significant time on the right side for the Marlies, yes? (Looking at you, herman - you seem to have the Marlies info)

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Dermott saw significant time on the right side for the Marlies, yes? (Looking at you, herman - you seem to have the Marlies info)

Herman or someone else can correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think this happened very often. This past season especially the Marlies had a pretty deep right side, so he was usually with Liljegren or LoVerde. And scanning some posted line-ups from the season before when they didn't have as much RHD depth it looks like Andrew Campbell and Viktor Loov were the guys who generally moved to their off-side.

 

[Coco-puffs]

I was wondering if it was #1... but where and for whom? To Minnesota? Winnipeg? Carolina? For an RD?

What teams think they're close enough -- or are sufficiently desperate to make the playoffs -- that they'd be in on a pending UFA? I'd suspect the Leafs want to get better, and swapping Gardiner for de Haan plus futures doesn't really do that.

Carolina has 4 RHD in Hamilton, Pesce, Faulk, and TVR.  Only Slavin on the Left side.  So a Faulk for Gardiner swap makes sense.

The Wild have Brodin and Suter on the left side, so not sure how Gardiner fits in there.  Unless they have another move in mind it doesn't make much sense to me.  They do have a few RHD though in Spurgeon, Dumba (RFA), Pateryn, and Prosser.

Jets have Trouba, Buff, and Myers on the right side.  They also have lots of RFA's to sign between this year and next.  Maybe Gardiner for one year makes sense for them, since their left side is essentially Morrissey and replacement level guys.  I can't remember if Myers is any good anymore, but he does have one year left on his deal as well.  If they sweeten the deal with prospect that might work but I don't love it.

 

[rdowdall]

Dermott saw significant time on the right side for the Marlies, yes? (Looking at you, herman - you seem to have the Marlies info)

Herman or someone else can correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think this happened very often. This past season especially the Marlies had a pretty deep right side, so he was usually with Liljegren or LoVerde. And scanning some posted line-ups from the season before when they didn't have as much RHD depth it looks like Andrew Campbell and Viktor Loov were the guys who generally moved to their off-side.

We need a defenceman who is an ambi-turner.

 

[Coco-puffs]

Back in the Matt Hunwick days though Rielly did play the right side. His numbers took a bit of a hit from what he was used to but it's difficult to say if that's because he played on a different side or because he played with Matt Hunwick.

When Rielly and Gardiner have played together, they did well -- and one of them was on the right side.

Think link to Corsica's stats of Gardiner's partners just might work.

Yeah, if I have Rielly playing his off-side, I'd lean towards him playing with Gardiner instead of Dermott.  Run the defense pairs as such:

Gardiner - Rielly -> Top pair, lots of defensive zone starts

Dermott - Zaitsev ->  Lots of offensive zone starts.  Both are good and aggressive at the offensive blueline and do a good job keeping possession in the offensive zone.

Hainsey + one of Rosen/Borgman/Carrick/Ohzighanov (Hainsey switches sides when paired with a lefty) -> sheltered usage in terms of competition, but not necessarily in terms of zone

 

[herman]

Dermott saw significant time on the right side for the Marlies, yes? (Looking at you, herman - you seem to have the Marlies info)

Herman or someone else can correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think this happened very often. This past season especially the Marlies had a pretty deep right side, so he was usually with Liljegren or LoVerde. And scanning some posted line-ups from the season before when they didn't have as much RHD depth it looks like Andrew Campbell and Viktor Loov were the guys who generally moved to their off-side.

We need a defenceman who is an ambi-turner.

Dermott played right side in the past (as have Marincin, Rosen, and Borgman); but as Carlton mentioned, it was largely spot duty this past year thanks to Holl, LoVerde, and Liljegren. He did it more the previous season, but did have some injury setbacks. I don't have enough of a sample to say for certain how he did there, but he looked alright with Rielly. I do know that sometimes the Marlies lineups are posted without regard for side, and often the listed lines are only used sparingly, as Keefe is not as attached to handedness and they were generally overwhelmingly good already.

 

[mr grieves]

Yeah, if I have Rielly playing his off-side, I'd lean towards him playing with Gardiner instead of Dermott.  Run the defense pairs as such:

Gardiner - Rielly -> Top pair, lots of defensive zone starts

Dermott - Zaitsev ->  Lots of offensive zone starts.  Both are good and aggressive at the offensive blueline and do a good job keeping possession in the offensive zone.

Hainsey + one of Rosen/Borgman/Carrick/Ohzighanov (Hainsey switches sides when paired with a lefty) -> sheltered usage in terms of competition, but not necessarily in terms of zone

If they're in a trading mood, I wonder if a package of a pick, Carrick, plus one of Brown/Johnsson/Kapanen (ideally Brown) could get a good RHD that's out there. Pysyk, Petry, Faulk, Spurgeon... or something like that. Push Zaitsev down to the third pair or trade him before folks realize he's a bottom-pairing defenseman paid like a top-4.

Gardiner - Rielly
Dermott - acquired RHD
Hainsey + one of Rosen/Borgman/Ohzighanov

 

[louisstamos]

Just for fun, back in late May I was doing a course on Excel on how to make charts, so I used hockey data (as it's so near and dear to me).  I made a chart of all the Leafs D from 2017-18 (min 10 games), along with all the rumoured "available" RHD defensemen.  Just for fun, I just plugged in De Haan here now.  Their career relative Corsi to their team and their on-ice save percentage (as I couldn't find relative oiSV% anywhere).

I wish I could find relative oiSV%, as it might not be fair to someone like Faulk who's played on teams with subpar goalies the last couple years.  If your goalie saves .900 while you're on the ice, but .880 when you're not, it means you're probably pretty good.  Also, I know his quality of competition was low, and it's a small sample size, but I think Dermott might be a player you guys.

Anyways, De Haan's numbers are decent.  Can probably do better, but for a free pickup, not bad.

 

[Frank E]

What do we think would be Gardiner's ask?  $7mX8?

 

[rdowdall]

Just for fun, back in late May I was doing a course on Excel on how to make charts, so I used hockey data (as it's so near and dear to me).  I made a chart of all the Leafs D from 2017-18 (min 10 games), along with all the rumoured "available" RHD defensemen.  Just for fun, I just plugged in De Haan here now.  Their career relative Corsi to their team and their on-ice save percentage (as I couldn't find relative oiSV% anywhere).

I wish I could find relative oiSV%, as it might not be fair to someone like Faulk who's played on teams with subpar goalies the last couple years.  If your goalie saves .900 while you're on the ice, but .880 when you're not, it means you're probably pretty good.  Also, I know his quality of competition was low, and it's a small sample size, but I think Dermott might be a player you guys.

Anyways, De Haan's numbers are decent.  Can probably do better, but for a free pickup, not bad.

Man, Andersen must be super dialed in when Dermott is on the ice.

 

[Coco-puffs]

What do we think would be Gardiner's ask?  $7mX8?

I think that might be where his agent starts, but I don't think he'd get more than $6.5M x 7 on the open market.  McDonagh's contract extension probably puts a limit on what Gardiner could get (6.75M x 8 ).

I'd be fine with $6M x 5/6 or something like that (maximum). 

 

[CarltonTheBear]

If Gardiner puts up another 50-point season I can see him hitting a $7mil AAV on the open market.

 

[bustaheims]

If Gardiner puts up another 50-point season I can see him hitting a $7mil AAV on the open market.

Agreed. Some of the contracts handed out to defencemen over the last few weeks have definitely raised the pay scale. You're not going to get a blueliner with multiple 50+ point seasons for less than $7M in the UFA market.

 

[Kin]

Yeah. There's no doubt that McDonogh took a bit of a haircut to stay on a contender. Gardiner wouldn't have to.

 

[Coco-puffs]

If Gardiner puts up another 50-point season I can see him hitting a $7mil AAV on the open market.

Agreed. Some of the contracts handed out to defencemen over the last few weeks have definitely raised the pay scale.

You are both probably right- but for some reason I feel like enough GM's out there still think he's bad defensively and that will temper his contract.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Also earlier I half-jokingly/half-seriously suggested that the Leafs should experiment with a 5-forward powerplay unit. If they do this and use Rielly on the other unit it could artificially keep Gardiner's point totals down, possibly making him a little easier to re-sign.

 

[bustaheims]

You are both probably right- but for some reason I feel like enough GM's out there still think he's bad defensively and that will temper his contract.

Sure, but with another 50+ point season, his perceived defensive issues will be what prevent him from getting $8M plus.

 

[Coco-puffs]

You are both probably right- but for some reason I feel like enough GM's out there still think he's bad defensively and that will temper his contract.

Sure, but with another 50+ point season, his perceived defensive issues will be what prevent him from getting $8M plus.

True.  So where is your cutoff line for re-signing him?