Armchair GM 2018-2019

[princedpw]

I don?t know where to put this but I?m pretty concerned about the rumors of Tampa getting Karlsson.

Related: can we please change the playoff format?

At some point, no matter what the playoff format is, the Leafs are going to have to play the best teams, so I don't think changing the format is really going to help at all.  If and when the Leafs play a Boston, or a Tampa, or a Pittsburgh, or a Washington, they need to be the better team to win the series.

Different people will have different feelings about such things but I will personally feel the leafs were a little more successful if, say, they finish 2nd overall and then they lose in the conf finals or finals to the best team in the league than if they lose in the 2nd round.

In other words, how far they go matters to me, not just whether or not they win it all.

 

[rdowdall]

I don?t know where to put this but I?m pretty concerned about the rumors of Tampa getting Karlsson.

Related: can we please change the playoff format?

At some point, no matter what the playoff format is, the Leafs are going to have to play the best teams, so I don't think changing the format is really going to help at all.  If and when the Leafs play a Boston, or a Tampa, or a Pittsburgh, or a Washington, they need to be the better team to win the series.

Different people will have different feelings about such things but I will personally feel the leafs were a little more successful if, say, they finish 2nd overall and then they lose in the conf finals or finals to the best team in the league than if they lose in the 2nd round.

In other words, how far they go matters to me, not just whether or not they win it all.

For me the round numbers have little meaning.  That's just me though.  You play who you play and then you go from there.  There are so many variables that go in to a series and with the amount of parity that exists in the league today, I feel that now more than ever that it is impossible to say that one team is a lock over another in any particular series.  I think you can get favorable match ups sometimes, but even then things are far from absolute. 

Take this year for example, I think the Leafs would have matched up better against the Lightning than the Bruins.  So this year in my mind, they would have had a more favorable series if they could have faced the Lightning instead of the Bruins, but they still would have had to play the Bruins at some point.

Last year, I think the Leafs would have matched up well against the Senators or the Bruins, so it would have been better if they could have landed in to the 2-3 spot.  They didn't and they ended up having to play the Capitals.  In that scenario, I guess you could make the argument that they wouldn't have had to necessarily play the Caps because they would have ended up getting beat out by Pittsburgh.

In my mind though, you are sometimes going to get a favorable matchup in the first round, or maybe you get it in the second round, or if you are really lucky you get it in the third round.  It's just the way the puck bounces sometimes.  So where the Leafs go out in the playoffs doesn't really interest me much, because at the end of the day it meant they got beat out, and at that point they are no different than 30 other teams in the league. 

 

[princedpw]

I don?t know where to put this but I?m pretty concerned about the rumors of Tampa getting Karlsson.

Related: can we please change the playoff format?

At some point, no matter what the playoff format is, the Leafs are going to have to play the best teams, so I don't think changing the format is really going to help at all.  If and when the Leafs play a Boston, or a Tampa, or a Pittsburgh, or a Washington, they need to be the better team to win the series.

Different people will have different feelings about such things but I will personally feel the leafs were a little more successful if, say, they finish 2nd overall and then they lose in the conf finals or finals to the best team in the league than if they lose in the 2nd round.

In other words, how far they go matters to me, not just whether or not they win it all.

For me the round numbers have little meaning.  That's just me though.  You play who you play and then you go from there.  There are so many variables that go in to a series and with the amount of parity that exists in the league today, I feel that now more than ever that it is impossible to say that one team is a lock over another in any particular series.  I think you can get favorable match ups sometimes, but even then things are far from absolute. 

Take this year for example, I think the Leafs would have matched up better against the Lightning than the Bruins.  So this year in my mind, they would have had a more favorable series if they could have faced the Lightning instead of the Bruins, but they still would have had to play the Bruins at some point.

Last year, I think the Leafs would have matched up well against the Senators or the Bruins, so it would have been better if they could have landed in to the 2-3 spot.  They didn't and they ended up having to play the Capitals.  In that scenario, I guess you could make the argument that they wouldn't have had to necessarily play the Caps because they would have ended up getting beat out by Pittsburgh.

In my mind though, you are sometimes going to get a favorable matchup in the first round, or maybe you get it in the second round, or if you are really lucky you get it in the third round.  It's just the way the puck bounces sometimes.  So where the Leafs go out in the playoffs doesn't really interest me much, because at the end of the day it meant they got beat out, and at that point they are no different than 30 other teams in the league.

I agree with many of your points.  In the NBA, some teams are significantly better than others and the significantly better team wins a 7-game series 90% of the time (modulo injury factors).  In the NHL, there is so much parity and so much depends upon a small number of random bounces of the puck that the better team only really has 60-40 odds.  Teams overcome those odds all the time.

Anyway, just making the playoffs was immensely satisfying for me 2 years ago.  My expectations are a little higher so I'm hoping for more but I'd be very happy if the leafs made the conference finals next year (I have fond memories of the Gilmour years and they didn't get any farther than that).  I can't think of any single event that would tilt the odds of Toronto making it that far in the wrong direction more than Tampa getting Karlsson (except *maybe* a Matthews injury).

 

[Average Joes]

It is basic probability math that the less tough match-ups you face the better are your odds of winning the Cup.  Reformatting who you face in the playoffs would improve the odds of the top teams to advance. At least on average. 

 

[rdowdall]

It is basic probability math that the less tough match-ups you face the better are your odds of winning the Cup.  Reformatting who you face in the playoffs would improve the odds of the top teams to advance. At least on average.

So how does the probability change if the Leafs face the Lightning in the first round versus the second or the third?  If you are going to have to play a tough team, you are going to have to play a tough team. 

You can argue that by facing them in the second round, they may have injuries, but you can't plan for that.  Also the Leafs may get injuries as well.  In order to be the best team in the league, you are going to have to beat the best teams in the league. 

My argument isn't that playing a lower ranked team wouldn't be better.  My argument is that you can't outrun playing good opponents by changing the playoff format.

 

[Kin]

So how does the probability change if the Leafs face the Lightning in the first round versus the second or the third?  If you are going to have to play a tough team, you are going to have to play a tough team. 

You can argue that by facing them in the second round, they may have injuries, but you can't plan for that.  Also the Leafs may get injuries as well.  In order to be the best team in the league, you are going to have to beat the best teams in the league. 

My argument isn't that playing a lower ranked team wouldn't be better.  My argument is that you can't outrun playing good opponents by changing the playoff format.

I think the argument is that if you're in a tough division, the likelihood of getting sort of a flukey run to the cup where by luck you manage to miss out on heavyweights from your own conference is lower.

I agree with you that the Leafs should be focused on building a team where they are the heavyweights but I think there's something to be said for maybe putting off the biggest battles until it's absolutely necessary. If a particularly tough series takes more out of a team than an easier one than you'd prefer for your toughest series to be your last one.

 

[Average Joes]

So how does the probability change if the Leafs face the Lightning in the first round versus the second or the third?  If you are going to have to play a tough team, you are going to have to play a tough team. 

You can argue that by facing them in the second round, they may have injuries, but you can't plan for that.  Also the Leafs may get injuries as well.  In order to be the best team in the league, you are going to have to beat the best teams in the league. 

My argument isn't that playing a lower ranked team wouldn't be better.  My argument is that you can't outrun playing good opponents by changing the playoff format.

I think the argument is that if you're in a tough division, the likelihood of getting sort of a flukey run to the cup where by luck you manage to miss out on heavyweights from your own conference is lower.

I agree with you that the Leafs should be focused on building a team where they are the heavyweights but I think there's something to be said for maybe putting off the biggest battles until it's absolutely necessary. If a particularly tough series takes more out of a team than an easier one than you'd prefer for your toughest series to be your last one.

Exactly. 

Scenario 1:  Bruins and Lightning.  Scenario 2:  Devils and Lightning. 

Your probability of getting to round 3 is greater with scenario 2.  For argument sake let us say you are 50/50 to beat the Bruins and 50/50 vs the Lighting.  The devils you are 66/34 to win.  In scenario 1 you have a 25% chance to make it to round 3.  In scenario 2 it is 33% because you were less likely to get knocked out vs the Devils.

The above does not even factor in that you are probably playing more games vs the Bruins if you get past them and thus at greater risk of fatigue/injury.

 

[rdowdall]

So how does the probability change if the Leafs face the Lightning in the first round versus the second or the third?  If you are going to have to play a tough team, you are going to have to play a tough team. 

You can argue that by facing them in the second round, they may have injuries, but you can't plan for that.  Also the Leafs may get injuries as well.  In order to be the best team in the league, you are going to have to beat the best teams in the league. 

My argument isn't that playing a lower ranked team wouldn't be better.  My argument is that you can't outrun playing good opponents by changing the playoff format.

I think the argument is that if you're in a tough division, the likelihood of getting sort of a flukey run to the cup where by luck you manage to miss out on heavyweights from your own conference is lower.

I agree with you that the Leafs should be focused on building a team where they are the heavyweights but I think there's something to be said for maybe putting off the biggest battles until it's absolutely necessary. If a particularly tough series takes more out of a team than an easier one than you'd prefer for your toughest series to be your last one.

Exactly. 

Scenario 1:  Bruins and Lightning.  Scenario 2:  Devils and Lightning. 

Your probability of getting to round 3 is greater with scenario 2.  For argument sake let us say you are 50/50 to beat the Bruins and 50/50 vs the Lighting.  The devils you are 66/34 to win.  In scenario 1 you have a 25% chance to make it to round 3.  In scenario 2 it is 33% because you were less likely to get knocked out vs the Devils.

The above does not even factor in that you are probably playing more games vs the Bruins if you get past them and thus at greater risk of fatigue/injury.

I guess I just don't see the percentages coming out like that.  For example, I would have been more like:

Bruins v Leafs:  45% chance Leafs win
Lighting v Leafs:  55% chance Leafs win
Devils v Leafs:  55% chance Leafs win

So in that case, playing Bruins and then the Lightning to me is no different than playing the Devils and then Bruins.  I think more goes in to the probability than just the standings though, because I feel the standings aren't necessarily indicative of your place within your division relative to the other teams in your division because you play different teams throughout the league at different times throughout the year so there is a point variance there.  For me it's more about the type of personnel a team has and how they line up against one another.  So for example, last year, Columbus was a team I did not want the Leafs to play because I felt that their team was one that would match up well against the Leafs and could give them a lot of trouble.  Regardless of where the standings fell, regardless of point totals, Columbus was a team I just didn't want to Leafs to play.

That's why for me personally, regardless of the playoff format, there are always going to be teams that are teams you just don't want to play, in any round.  For example like how the Senators dreaded meeting the Leafs in the playoffs between 1999-2004.  Wouldn't have mattered what round they met in, it was just a team they didn't want to play. 

I get you want to play your weakest opponent first.  I guess where I have a problem with playoff formats and trying to get the favorable match up, if that's the goal, you can't base that off of standings.  The only playoff format where that would be close to possible would be to give the top seeds a chance to pick their opponent, like they have been experimenting in some divisions.  Even there though, you still have to come out on top of your division or conference to get that benefit.  I could totally see a scenario last year where if the Bruins got to pick second, they might have chosen the Leafs over some of those other teams.   

 

[Frank E]

I'm not sure which European league practices this, but the idea that the top seeds get to pick their opponent is kind of cool.  It would add some intrigue to the end of the season.

 

[L K]

I'm not sure which European league practices this, but the idea that the top seeds get to pick their opponent is kind of cool.  It would add some intrigue to the end of the season.

That would actually be kind of fun.  Would create a great incentive for the team that an opponent chooses. It would really make things interesting if say in a hypothetical scenario Tampa has an injury to Kucherov in the first round and a team tries to take them on when they are banged up if they know he would miss the series. 

 

[Frank E]

I'm not sure which European league practices this, but the idea that the top seeds get to pick their opponent is kind of cool.  It would add some intrigue to the end of the season.

That would actually be kind of fun.  Would create a great incentive for the team that an opponent chooses. It would really make things interesting if say in a hypothetical scenario Tampa has an injury to Kucherov in the first round and a team tries to take them on when they are banged up if they know he would miss the series.

Yeah, I think it would be fun.  Another great reason to want to finish at the top of your division and add more value to the regular season.

 

[Highlander]

I'm not sure which European league practices this, but the idea that the top seeds get to pick their opponent is kind of cool.  It would add some intrigue to the end of the season.

That would actually be kind of fun.  Would create a great incentive for the team that an opponent chooses. It would really make things interesting if say in a hypothetical scenario Tampa has an injury to Kucherov in the first round and a team tries to take them on when they are banged up if they know he would miss the series.

The only scenario we have to deal with is the Leafs winning he Cup, we all have to start to go in visualization mode, we have the Cup in our hands already.
Know it sounds crazy but what happens if Stamkos and some other Tampa players go down, it can open a lot of doors quickly, nothing is written in stone.  Napoleon said "Imagination rules the world".  Its time to start believing, we deserve a lot more than the last 50 years of suffering.
Babcock said when we get this going, "they are going to come home" and with JT signing are they ever.

 

[disco]

"Once we make it SAFE here (with a home-drafted superstar core), they'll be coming home. Mark my words... they'll be coming home."

 

[cabber24]

Trade deadline D possibilities: Kronwall, Boumeester, Del Zotto, Edler, Lovejoy

 

[cabber24]

Yawn, let's get this season started already!

The Leafs sign any veteran D on a short term contract yet? Sbisa? Hamhuis? Emelin?

 

[nutman]

Yawn, let's get this season started already!

The Leafs sign any veteran D on a short term contract yet? Sbisa? Hamhuis? Emelin?
[/



Nope, and that's because we will promote from within, and rightly so, as we have some very serious defensive talent almost ready.

 

[cabber24]

Yawn, let's get this season started already!

The Leafs sign any veteran D on a short term contract yet? Sbisa? Hamhuis? Emelin?
[/



Nope, and that's because we will promote from within, and rightly so, as we have some very serious defensive talent almost ready.

That's news to me. "Serious defensive talent"... no ones there yet and we need it today not tomorrow.

 

[herman]

I think it's time for a bit of mutual back scratching:

to TOR: Trouba, Griffith(!!!)
to WPG: Gardiner, Nielsen, Greenway, 3rd Rd Pick

Trouba's relationship with the Jets is pretty sour by now, after a dogfight of an arbitration hearing. Gardiner goes to another contender that's closer to home and in need of LD stability. We give up more because Trouba is younger and still RFA.

The throw-ins are debatable.

 

[Bill_Berg]

I think it's time for a bit of mutual back scratching:

to TOR: Trouba, Griffith(!!!)
to WPG: Gardiner, Nielsen, Greenway, 3rd Rd Pick

Trouba's relationship with the Jets is pretty sour by now, after a dogfight of an arbitration hearing. Gardiner goes to another contender that's closer to home and in need of LD stability. We give up more because Trouba is younger and still RFA.

The throw-ins are debatable.

I'm down. And Winterpeg needs LD if I remember correctly.

 

[herman]

I think it's time for a bit of mutual back scratching:

to TOR: Trouba, Griffith(!!!)
to WPG: Gardiner, Nielsen, Greenway, 3rd Rd Pick

Trouba's relationship with the Jets is pretty sour by now, after a dogfight of an arbitration hearing. Gardiner goes to another contender that's closer to home and in need of LD stability. We give up more because Trouba is younger and still RFA.

The throw-ins are debatable.

I'm down. And Winterpeg needs LD if I remember correctly.

They should be more inclined to move Tyler Myers, who is of similar age to Gardiner and same cap hit as Trouba. But they certainly wouldn't get as much in return.