Bozak's Future

[mr grieves]

But, more to the point, no one's being used like it by Boston. The team has depth enough to roll 4 lines, which keeps Bergeron's TOI (and everyone else's) below what one would expect of a heavily-relied-upon #1C. So perhaps they aren't a great model for Toronto.

That's sort of what I'm getting at. When we say "Boston doesn't have a #1" I think what we really mean is that they don't lean on their first line the way teams with less depth might.

Which would suggest a developing team could look to go one of two ways. Build the depth so you needn't lean on a top line too heavily or find some way to get one of the few -- how many? 15 or 20 ppg types? -- out there... Former sounds more appealing, because it has the advantage of being possible, but, if you've got a winger you're paying ~$7.5m/yr, it'd be nice to have someone to play 20-21 minutes a night with him. 

 

[Kin]

Which would suggest a developing team could look to go one of two ways. Build the depth so you needn't lean on a top line too heavily or find some way to get one of the few -- how many? 15 or 20 ppg types? -- out there... Former sounds more appealing, because it has the advantage of being possible, but, if you've got a winger you're paying ~$7.5m/yr, it'd be nice to have someone to play 20-21 minutes a night with him.

Well, except again I'm sort of suggesting that Bergeron is as good/capable offensively as one of those PPG(or close to it types) so "build the depth" in that context means finding more than one great centre so I don't think I'd say it sounds like the easier option.

 

[Jalili]

On the other hand, Boston doesn't have a complete, PPG #1C in either Bergeron or Krejci, but they make do without one.

I think Bergeron is a player at that level, he's just not being used like it by Boston. Last few years he's been at a 64 points per 82 games pace and that's with playing less ice time than most #1's and taking a big chunk of PK time. If Boston played Bergeron 20-21 minutes a night including 3+ on the PP I'm guessing he'd be at 75-80 points or so.

Bergeron would also be up in that point range, I think, if he wasn't so dedicated to other aspects of his game.

 

[mr grieves]

Which would suggest a developing team could look to go one of two ways. Build the depth so you needn't lean on a top line too heavily or find some way to get one of the few -- how many? 15 or 20 ppg types? -- out there... Former sounds more appealing, because it has the advantage of being possible, but, if you've got a winger you're paying ~$7.5m/yr, it'd be nice to have someone to play 20-21 minutes a night with him.

Well, except again I'm sort of suggesting that Bergeron is as good/capable offensively as one of those PPG(or close to it types) so "build the depth" in that context means finding more than one great centre so I don't think I'd say it sounds like the easier option.

Oh... then I don't know that I agree with the suggestion. He's never managed that many points, and, if you figure he's scored a point every 25 minutes over the last 4 seasons, to get to 75-80 his TOI would have be something like 23 or 24 minutes a game. And since Boston had fewer than 3 min of PP time per game last season, it's hard to see how he'd get that sort of time on the team he's on.

So it's not just a function of his TOI. Something else would have to give. Not only the extra minute or two per game, but playing under another system, being freed of his defensive responsibilities, and with a team that draws penalties far more frequently. 

Point was: whether Bergeron could or couldn't score at that clip, he's on a team that requires neither of its top two centers to be the thoroughly dominant offensive beasts we think of #1Cs as in order to have success.

 

[Kin]

Oh... then I don't know that I agree with the suggestion. He's never managed that many points, and, if you figure he's scored a point every 25 minutes over the last 4 seasons, to get to 75-80 his TOI would have be something like 23 or 24 minutes a game. And since Boston had fewer than 3 min of PP time per game last season, it's hard to see how he'd get that sort of time on the team he's on.

I'm really not suggesting anything radical here. Bergeron's career high in points is 73 in 81 games and his second best season is 70 points in 77 games(with around 21 minutes per night and a ton of PP time). Over 82 games that's 75 points. So really I'm not suggesting anything other than something Bergeron has already shown himself to be capable of as a 21 year old.

 

[L K]

I know we like to say that #1C is something that the Leafs need to improve, but I'm really not seeing where that individual currently sits on the open market.  The free agent class is weak.  Maybe you can sign a Ribiero on a 1-2 year contract as an upgrade (debatable as a big improvement anyway).  Maybe you can sign a Stephen Weiss (never really hit that #1 center level of play and is a huge injury risk anyway).

Maybe you trade for Paul Stasny but for the past three years his production has declined.  Is it because Colorado just hasn't been a good team, or did he just regress to a middling player rather than a true #1 option. 

 

[Champ Kind]

I know we like to say that #1C is something that the Leafs need to improve, but I'm really not seeing where that individual currently sits on the open market.  The free agent class is weak.  Maybe you can sign a Ribiero on a 1-2 year contract as an upgrade (debatable as a big improvement anyway).  Maybe you can sign a Stephen Weiss (never really hit that #1 center level of play and is a huge injury risk anyway).

Maybe you trade for Paul Stasny but for the past three years his production has declined.  Is it because Colorado just hasn't been a good team, or did he just regress to a middling player rather than a true #1 option.

Agreed.  There are really little to no options available, save for some unknown potential trades that may occur.  I agree with other posters that one of the centres from this year won't be back (Bozak or Grabovski) and that Colborne, hopefully, grabs the vacated spot. 

But, this shouldn't precule the Leafs targeting other free agents that can help the team (I do hope that one of Clarkson, Horton, or (gasp) Clowe end up on this team next year), even if they play a position where the Leafs have relative strength. 

 

[Corn Flake]

I know we like to say that #1C is something that the Leafs need to improve, but I'm really not seeing where that individual currently sits on the open market.  The free agent class is weak.  Maybe you can sign a Ribiero on a 1-2 year contract as an upgrade (debatable as a big improvement anyway).  Maybe you can sign a Stephen Weiss (never really hit that #1 center level of play and is a huge injury risk anyway).

Maybe you trade for Paul Stasny but for the past three years his production has declined.  Is it because Colorado just hasn't been a good team, or did he just regress to a middling player rather than a true #1 option.

Agreed.  There are really little to no options available, save for some unknown potential trades that may occur.  I agree with other posters that one of the centres from this year won't be back (Bozak or Grabovski) and that Colborne, hopefully, grabs the vacated spot. 

But, this shouldn't precule the Leafs targeting other free agents that can help the team (I do hope that one of Clarkson, Horton, or (gasp) Clowe end up on this team next year), even if they play a position where the Leafs have relative strength.

I like Stastny because I think he is a very underrated two-way centre -- the type you can throw out there against the best and he can give you 20 minutes of solid play at both ends. He was asked to do a lot of that in Colorado the past few years, which I think has impacted his offensive output.  I think if he centered one of the top two lines on this team, his offense will climb again.  Also, he's truly a playmaking centre vs. what I think is a dearth of that on this team other than Kadri.  Grabbo is a finisher who IMO struggles to set up his linemates, Bozak is somewhere in between.

Ignoring the cap for a moment, If I combine need with what worked/didn't work last year under Carlyle, I keep Bozak, trade for Stastny and either move Grabbo to the wing or trade him if he isn't going to work under Carlyle. 

Stastny, Kadri, Bozak and McClement up the middle gives us some really nice balance, takes some heat off Bozak having to be the top dog, two very good two-way guys, three above ~50% on faceoffs, and 3 solid PK'ing centres (critical, IMO).

edit: Grabbo on the wing is an experiment I think would work out well.  Trouble is the cap space and room on the wings both being very hard to come by.

 

[Champ Kind]

I like Stastny because I think he is a very underrated two-way centre -- the type you can throw out there against the best and he can give you 20 minutes of solid play at both ends. He was asked to do a lot of that in Colorado the past few years, which I think has impacted his offensive output.  I think if he centered one of the top two lines on this team, his offense will climb again.  Also, he's truly a playmaking centre vs. what I think is a dearth of that on this team other than Kadri.  Grabbo is a finisher who IMO struggles to set up his linemates, Bozak is somewhere in between.

Ignoring the cap for a moment, If I combine need with what worked/didn't work last year under Carlyle, I keep Bozak, trade for Stastny and either move Grabbo to the wing or trade him if he isn't going to work under Carlyle. 

Stastny, Kadri, Bozak and McClement up the middle gives us some really nice balance, takes some heat off Bozak having to be the top dog, two very good two-way guys, three above ~50% on faceoffs, and 3 solid PK'ing centres (critical, IMO).

edit: Grabbo on the wing is an experiment I think would work out well.  Trouble is the cap space and room on the wings both being very hard to come by.

I like what you've presented but, assuming Stastny arrives, having Bozak at the 3C is a continuation of the Grabovski "problem" of this year - that's a heck of a lot of mullah to spend on that position, especially with the cap going down. 

 

[Corn Flake]

I like Stastny because I think he is a very underrated two-way centre -- the type you can throw out there against the best and he can give you 20 minutes of solid play at both ends. He was asked to do a lot of that in Colorado the past few years, which I think has impacted his offensive output.  I think if he centered one of the top two lines on this team, his offense will climb again.  Also, he's truly a playmaking centre vs. what I think is a dearth of that on this team other than Kadri.  Grabbo is a finisher who IMO struggles to set up his linemates, Bozak is somewhere in between.

Ignoring the cap for a moment, If I combine need with what worked/didn't work last year under Carlyle, I keep Bozak, trade for Stastny and either move Grabbo to the wing or trade him if he isn't going to work under Carlyle. 

Stastny, Kadri, Bozak and McClement up the middle gives us some really nice balance, takes some heat off Bozak having to be the top dog, two very good two-way guys, three above ~50% on faceoffs, and 3 solid PK'ing centres (critical, IMO).

edit: Grabbo on the wing is an experiment I think would work out well.  Trouble is the cap space and room on the wings both being very hard to come by.

I like what you've presented but, assuming Stastny arrives, having Bozak at the 3C is a continuation of the Grabovski "problem" of this year - that's a heck of a lot of mullah to spend on that position, especially with the cap going down.

Its a problem only from a cap perspective though but yes, it's a problem.  My idea requires Bozak to sign for $4 mil or less.  Probably less. 

 

[mr grieves]

I like Stastny because I think he is a very underrated two-way centre -- the type you can throw out there against the best and he can give you 20 minutes of solid play at both ends. He was asked to do a lot of that in Colorado the past few years, which I think has impacted his offensive output.  I think if he centered one of the top two lines on this team, his offense will climb again.  Also, he's truly a playmaking centre vs. what I think is a dearth of that on this team other than Kadri.  Grabbo is a finisher who IMO struggles to set up his linemates, Bozak is somewhere in between.

Ignoring the cap for a moment, If I combine need with what worked/didn't work last year under Carlyle, I keep Bozak, trade for Stastny and either move Grabbo to the wing or trade him if he isn't going to work under Carlyle. 

Stastny, Kadri, Bozak and McClement up the middle gives us some really nice balance, takes some heat off Bozak having to be the top dog, two very good two-way guys, three above ~50% on faceoffs, and 3 solid PK'ing centres (critical, IMO).

edit: Grabbo on the wing is an experiment I think would work out well.  Trouble is the cap space and room on the wings both being very hard to come by.

I like what you've presented but, assuming Stastny arrives, having Bozak at the 3C is a continuation of the Grabovski "problem" of this year - that's a heck of a lot of mullah to spend on that position, especially with the cap going down.

Its a problem only from a cap perspective though but yes, it's a problem.  My idea requires Bozak to sign for $4 mil or less.  Probably less.

At anything more, it'd be not only another season of the Grabovski problem but also a downgrade. As I've probably already said, would be nicer to get a cheaper 3rd line center and keep the space to trade for a bad contract that comes with a decent player (a la Gardiner or Franson trades).

Anyhow, I like the idea of Stastny. A decent piece on his virtues is here: http://hopeinthebigsmoke.ca/?p=3715

 

[Bullfrog]

I agree completely that Stastny should be the prime target this year. I think it'll take more than Franson though.

 

[Kessel Run]

Apparently negotiations with Bozak aren't going so well.

 

[mr grieves]

Apparently negotiations with Bozak aren't going so well.

Well, why would they? After 2.5 seasons in the league, he wants to be paid like a #1C, and his stats, raw and ES-per-60, and rankings against others centers look like the below. Numbers in red are '#1C' numbers, numbers in blue are '#3C or below' numbers. In black are marginal-#1/2C numbers.

 

[Kin]

Apparently negotiations with Bozak aren't going so well.

Well, why would they? After 2.5 seasons in the league, he wants to be paid like a #1C, and his stats, raw and ES-per-60, and rankings against others centers look like the below. Numbers in red are '#1C' numbers, numbers in blue are '#3C or below' numbers. In black are marginal-#1/2C numbers.

Not that I particularly want to re-open the Tyler Bozak debate of pages ago but I think it's a little misleading to say he's looking for "#1 center" money without really defining what that is(and without really knowing what he's asking for but I'd break my fingers if I had to tell people throughout the next month not to take rumour as fact). He's not looking for Sidney Crosby money and Crosby's a "#1 center". There are quite a few teams with more than 1 center making what Bozak is rumoured to be after so it's not like there's even a hard and fast concept of what a #1 makes. It varies pretty wildly from team to team depending on ability.

 

[dappleganger]

Apparently negotiations with Bozak aren't going so well.

Well, why would they? After 2.5 seasons in the league, he wants to be paid like a #1C, and his stats, raw and ES-per-60, and rankings against others centers look like the below. Numbers in red are '#1C' numbers, numbers in blue are '#3C or below' numbers. In black are marginal-#1/2C numbers.

Not that I particularly want to re-open the Tyler Bozak debate of pages ago but I think it's a little misleading to say he's looking for "#1 center" money without really defining what that is(and without really knowing what he's asking for but I'd break my fingers if I had to tell people throughout the next month not to take rumour as fact). He's not looking for Sidney Crosby money and Crosby's a "#1 center". There are quite a few teams with more than 1 center making what Bozak is rumoured to be after so it's not like there's even a hard and fast concept of what a #1 makes. It varies pretty wildly from team to team depending on ability.

He's looking for Grabovski money!

 

[mr grieves]

Apparently negotiations with Bozak aren't going so well.

Well, why would they? After 2.5 seasons in the league, he wants to be paid like a #1C, and his stats, raw and ES-per-60, and rankings against others centers look like the below. Numbers in red are '#1C' numbers, numbers in blue are '#3C or below' numbers. In black are marginal-#1/2C numbers.

Not that I particularly want to re-open the Tyler Bozak debate of pages ago but I think it's a little misleading to say he's looking for "#1 center" money without really defining what that is(and without really knowing what he's asking for but I'd break my fingers if I had to tell people throughout the next month not to take rumour as fact). He's not looking for Sidney Crosby money and Crosby's a "#1 center". There are quite a few teams with more than 1 center making what Bozak is rumoured to be after so it's not like there's even a hard and fast concept of what a #1 makes. It varies pretty wildly from team to team depending on ability.

Well, fair enough. Reports say he's looking for about $5m. So, comparables are Bergeron, Krejci, Horcoff, Carter, Plekanec, and Kesler. Make of that what you will.

 

[Kin]

Well, fair enough. Reports say he's looking for about $5m. So, comparables are Bergeron, Krejci, Horcoff, Carter, Plekanec, and Kesler. Make of that what you will.

It's interesting that he's comparable to guys whose cap hits are as much as five hundred thousand dollars higher than what "reports" say he's looking for but not a couple hundred thousand below that. Of course, it's not like anyone's looking to frame it in the worst possible light or anything.

 

[mr grieves]

Well, fair enough. Reports say he's looking for about $5m. So, comparables are Bergeron, Krejci, Horcoff, Carter, Plekanec, and Kesler. Make of that what you will.

It's interesting that he's comparable to guys whose cap hits are as much as five hundred thousand dollars higher than what "reports" say he's looking for but not a couple hundred thousand below that. Of course, it's not like anyone's looking to frame it in the worst possible light or anything.

Well, okay. Dropping it to 4.5m and you get: Leino, Legwand, Backes, and Jokinen.

 

[Kin]

Well, fair enough. Reports say he's looking for about $5m. So, comparables are Bergeron, Krejci, Horcoff, Carter, Plekanec, and Kesler. Make of that what you will.

It's interesting that he's comparable to guys whose cap hits are as much as five hundred thousand dollars higher than what "reports" say he's looking for but not a couple hundred thousand below that. Of course, it's not like anyone's looking to frame it in the worst possible light or anything.

Well, okay. Dropping it to 4.5m and you get: Leino, Legwand, Backes, and Jokinen.

And Tuomo Ruutu, RJ Umberger, Tim Connolly, Brooks Laich...I mean, it's not really the exclusive realm of superstars, is it? Filter out the guys who signed their deals as RFAs, as you should, and it's not much of a list.