Colton Orr two year extension?

[bustaheims]

I agree that Orr being in the lineup has little effect on influencing the results of the game, but should the presented correlation be totally dismissed? Orr himself has little impact on the results, but would playing him over MacArthur or Hamilton have an impact?

If we're talking about a pure, simple substitution, then, yes, that correlation should be dismissed. 6 minutes per night of MacArthur or Hamilton is likely have just as little impact on the team's record at the end of the season as 6 minutes per night of Orr did. Anything more than that deals with much more complicated issues, like how ice time being redistributed throughout the lineup impacts the end results, etc. Who gets more ice time with Orr out of the lineup? Who gets less to compensate for that? It's a much more complex issue that doesn't so much boil down to Orr's influence in the lineup, but, the impact of how Orr not being in the lineup influenced everyone else's TOI.

EDIT: But, the real truth is, the numbers you present don't really make much of a case for a difference of any significance. If you take the Leafs' winning percentage without Orr in the lineup and apply to the totality of the last 4 seasons, the Leafs gain a total of 10 points.

 

[cw]

...
However, I don't like the idea of having two bricks on the 4th line that take playing time away from players who can contribute in other areas such as defense. Orr or Mclaren, choose one. Not two.

That's my preference generally as well. If they're playing a low fighting team, not dressing either of them is an option I wish they would explore more.

I don't think the stats provided make a convincing case one way or the other. They don't seem to consider the strength of the opposition. And they don't consider whether McLaren (or another enforcer) was playing - as examples.

As for the games when he fought, that overlooks his impact when he was there but didn't fight. Too little data for me to be convinced one way or the other.

The Leafs led the league in hits per game (but a good margin)
link

Newcomers like Komorov, Fraser, a more physical Franson, and McClement helped along with improvement throughout the roster.
link

Now hit stats vary from city to city so I'm not going to put too much weight on them. But they do reinforce a widely reported observation that the Leafs were more physical last season and tougher to play against. Link to last season Orr & McLaren were a part of that improvement this season. And it was sorely needed for them to compete.

 

[Zee]

...
However, I don't like the idea of having two bricks on the 4th line that take playing time away from players who can contribute in other areas such as defense. Orr or Mclaren, choose one. Not two.

That's my preference generally as well. If they're playing a low fighting team, not dressing either of them is an option I wish they would explore more.

I don't think the stats provided make a convincing case one way or the other. They don't seem to consider the strength of the opposition. And they don't consider whether McLaren (or another enforcer) was playing - as examples.

As for the games when he fought, that overlooks his impact when he was there but didn't fight. Too little data for me to be convinced one way or the other.

The Leafs led the league in hits per game (but a good margin)
link

Newcomers like Komorov, Fraser, a more physical Franson, and McClement helped along with improvement throughout the roster.
link

Now hit stats vary from city to city so I'm not going to put too much weight on them. But they do reinforce a widely reported observation that the Leafs were more physical last season and tougher to play against. Link to last season Orr & McLaren were a part of that improvement this season. And it was sorely needed for them to compete.

Komarov will be missed in this department, he led all Leafs forwards in hits by a wide margin.