Contracts for the Big-3

[princedpw]

But he does makes some useful points and provides a selection of players to compare with so one can make up one?s own mind. I note that rather than taking the # of points on the whole ELC, Mirtle suggests more emphasis be placed on the contract year. That makes sense to me as these young players improve in leaps and bounds.  For that reason, one might also quibble with MacKinnon as a comparable as he was roughly 2 years younger than Nylander on his ELC.  In addition, pro-rating Nylander?s first half-season in the NHL (when he was honing his skills in the AHL, perhaps because he would have been less effective than in the NHL) also seems to give him a significant benefit of the doubt.

Or, conversely, it's giving Nylander credit for some of the experience he missed out on because the team held him out of the NHL despite him being ready as they tanked.

Look, I'm not going to read the article but I'm sure Mirtle knows his stuff. He's a professional nerd while I'm just a dedicated amateur. My point has always been that the idea of a "reasonable" ask is pretty varied as there's a lot of data and lots of ways to interpret it. I think you can make a reasonable case for all manner of numbers here. Nylander's making his, which I'm sure he's got a decent argument for, and Dubas is making his. Hopefully they meet somewhere amicably.

I think we agree.

 

[Bill_Berg]

The problem there is the price of apples only has partial impact on the price of oranges. The player's position does have a real impact on the salary, and a top-flight center definitely commands more...

I don't think comparing two different C's is apples and oranges. At best it's apple and a different, slightly better kind of apple.

Moreover, I don't think that line of argument would carry a lot of weight.

Imagine you're fresh out of university and you have some fancy credential. You're a lawyer or a CPA and you get a job with a big firm as such. You go to work and they say "Bad news. We hired way too many Lawyers. So for now we're going to need you in the IT department". Maybe you're a little upset but it's still a good job and you know your way around a router and you live in some bizarre world where you can't just choose to work for a different company as a lawyer. So you work for a few years and do a really good job and there's some talk of moving you into the legal department because you still think of yourself as a lawyer but you're really good in IT and happy enough there.

Then, it's time to renegotiate your salary and you ask for a salary roughly equivalent to a 3rd year associate and your boss goes "woah, woah, woah...that's what we pay Lawyers...you're just in IT".

I mean...they're free to try that and again, in this weird world where you can't just quit and go be a lawyer at a competing firm they've got more juice than they should have, but I think the whole "We're not paying you for what you're qualified for but the job we've decided to give you out of our own interest" would have some problems sticking.

The Leafs are certainly free to try that but Nylander is also free to not think that the Leafs choosing to play him at wing instead of at C should dictate his pay.

Wouldn't the Leafs be saying you're in IT and not a lawyer because you're not good enough to be a lawyer, but you are good enough to be in IT? So if you're not good enough to be a lawyer, despite your education, we shouldn't have to pay you like one?

 

[Zee]

So Darnell Nurse just signed a 2-year bridge deal.  2 years, $3.2M per.

As Zeppelin would say about Nylander:

Ah, excuse me
Oh will you excuse me
I'm just trying to find the bridge!
Has anybody seen the bridge?
Please!
(Have you seen the bridge?)
I ain't seen the bridge!
(Where's that confounded bridge?)

 

[Kin]

Wouldn't the Leafs be saying you're in IT and not a lawyer because you're not good enough to be a lawyer, but you are good enough to be in IT? So if you're not good enough to be a lawyer, despite your education, we shouldn't have to pay you like one?

Like I said, the Leafs are certainly allowed to try and tell Nylander that he's not good enough to play C but two things I think make that a bad play:

1. We have some evidence that it's just not true.

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2018/3/17/17130994/toronto-maple-leafs-william-nylander-centre-depth

2. Imagine if Matthews or Tavares get hurt and you ask him to slide over after negotiating a contract with him on the basis of him not being good enough to play C. Or maybe even longer term if a good trade for Kadri comes up.

 

[L K]

The problem there is the price of apples only has partial impact on the price of oranges. The player's position does have a real impact on the salary, and a top-flight center definitely commands more...

I don't think comparing two different C's is apples and oranges. At best it's apple and a different, slightly better kind of apple.

Moreover, I don't think that line of argument would carry a lot of weight.

Imagine you're fresh out of university and you have some fancy credential. You're a lawyer or a CPA and you get a job with a big firm as such. You go to work and they say "Bad news. We hired way too many Lawyers. So for now we're going to need you in the IT department". Maybe you're a little upset but it's still a good job and you know your way around a router and you live in some bizarre world where you can't just choose to work for a different company as a lawyer. So you work for a few years and do a really good job and there's some talk of moving you into the legal department because you still think of yourself as a lawyer but you're really good in IT and happy enough there.

Then, it's time to renegotiate your salary and you ask for a salary roughly equivalent to a 3rd year associate and your boss goes "woah, woah, woah...that's what we pay Lawyers...you're just in IT".

I mean...they're free to try that and again, in this weird world where you can't just quit and go be a lawyer at a competing firm they've got more juice than they should have, but I think the whole "We're not paying you for what you're qualified for but the job we've decided to give you out of our own interest" would have some problems sticking.

The Leafs are certainly free to try that but Nylander is also free to not think that the Leafs choosing to play him at wing instead of at C should dictate his pay.

Wouldn't the Leafs be saying you're in IT and not a lawyer because you're not good enough to be a lawyer, but you are good enough to be in IT? So if you're not good enough to be a lawyer, despite your education, we shouldn't have to pay you like one?

Yes.

To bring it back into hockey terms, the argument for Nylander/his agent would be that Nylander is dynamic and is capable of being a top 6 center while also having the versatility of being a dynamic scoring winger.  Given that ability he should be paid as such, and not as a guy who is either a top 6 winger or a 4th line center.  Just because he would arguably be our 4th best center behind Tavares/Matthews/Kadri doesn't mean that he should be paid as a winger or a 4th line center. 

If Tavares wasn't signed and instead stayed in New York, there is a pretty solid argument that Nylander would have been asked to be the 2nd scoring center on the team with Matthews being our #1 guy and Kadri holding on to his role as our #3/shutdown center.  Nylander likely would have received the 3rd line ice-time but would be the 2nd scoring line behind Matthews.

The Leafs are obviously going to argue that Nylander is more of a winger and they should pay him less because that is what is best for the team, but it doesn't mean that Nylander is going to accept that argument.

 

[cabber24]

Thank you Daniel Nurse for signing a market established going rate contract.

Nylander will hopefully do the same in the 6 x 6 area.

 

[Frank E]

Thank you Daniel Nurse for signing a market established going rate contract.

Nylander will hopefully do the same in the 6 x 6 area.

How did you calculate what Darnell (not Daniel) Nurse's market value is?

 

[Bill_Berg]

Wouldn't the Leafs be saying you're in IT and not a lawyer because you're not good enough to be a lawyer, but you are good enough to be in IT? So if you're not good enough to be a lawyer, despite your education, we shouldn't have to pay you like one?

Like I said, the Leafs are certainly allowed to try and tell Nylander that he's not good enough to play C but two things I think make that a bad play:

1. We have some evidence that it's just not true.

https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2018/3/17/17130994/toronto-maple-leafs-william-nylander-centre-depth

2. Imagine if Matthews or Tavares get hurt and you ask him to slide over after negotiating a contract with him on the basis of him not being good enough to play C. Or maybe even longer term if a good trade for Kadri comes up.

Yes fine. Good points.

 

[disco]

Just heard on Tim and Sid that Nylander's agent also reps Johnny Gaudreau, who in 2016 went all the way to October 10th, the day before the season started, to sign his RFA contract. He went on to have the worst statistical season of his career.

 

[Kin]

Just heard on Tim and Sid that Nylander's agent also reps Johnny Gaudreau, who in 2016 went all the way to October 10th, the day before the season started, to sign his RFA contract. He went on to have the worst statistical season of his career.

His possession numbers actually improved that season and he won the Lady Byng. His PPG was down a little but A) he got 1:30 less ice time per game than the year before and B) just about everyone on the Flames had a down year offensively.

 

[mr grieves]

So Darnell Nurse just signed a 2-year bridge deal.  2 years, $3.2M per.

As Zeppelin would say about Nylander:

Ah, excuse me
Oh will you excuse me
I'm just trying to find the bridge!
Has anybody seen the bridge?
Please!
(Have you seen the bridge?)
I ain't seen the bridge!
(Where's that confounded bridge?)

What would a Nylander bridge look like? Kucherov's contract, roughly?

That's, like, $5.5 x 2 (say 7% of cap), then 8x 12% of the cap. In 2 years, that'll likely be 85-90m, or $10.5m/year or so...

I think the worst cap crunch will be next year, so the relief might be nice, but I'm sure Dubas &c. have gamed it out and would much rather Nylander making $3-4m less in year 3.

I doubt there's a bridge on the table.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Just heard on Tim and Sid that Nylander's agent also reps Johnny Gaudreau, who in 2016 went all the way to October 10th, the day before the season started, to sign his RFA contract. He went on to have the worst statistical season of his career.

Kucherov signed his bridge deal in 2016 just two days before Tampa opened their regular season, and he went on to have his best statistical season to date by adding 19 points to his previous career high.

 

[ZBBM]

Just heard on Tim and Sid that Nylander's agent also reps Johnny Gaudreau, who in 2016 went all the way to October 10th, the day before the season started, to sign his RFA contract. He went on to have the worst statistical season of his career.

Kucherov signed his bridge deal in 2016 just two days before Tampa opened their regular season, and he went on to have his best statistical season to date by adding 19 points to his previous career high.

Hmmm I sense we are debating notions of causality here.  The connection between performance and when someone signs a contract is ... not obvious to me.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

Just heard on Tim and Sid that Nylander's agent also reps Johnny Gaudreau, who in 2016 went all the way to October 10th, the day before the season started, to sign his RFA contract. He went on to have the worst statistical season of his career.

Kucherov signed his bridge deal in 2016 just two days before Tampa opened their regular season, and he went on to have his best statistical season to date by adding 19 points to his previous career high.

Hmmm I sense we are debating notions of causality here.  The connection between performance and when someone signs a contract is ... not obvious to me.

I dunno. Signing on Tuesdays usually leads to career years.

 

[Zee]

So Darnell Nurse just signed a 2-year bridge deal.  2 years, $3.2M per.

As Zeppelin would say about Nylander:

Ah, excuse me
Oh will you excuse me
I'm just trying to find the bridge!
Has anybody seen the bridge?
Please!
(Have you seen the bridge?)
I ain't seen the bridge!
(Where's that confounded bridge?)

What would a Nylander bridge look like? Kucherov's contract, roughly?

That's, like, $5.5 x 2 (say 7% of cap), then 8x 12% of the cap. In 2 years, that'll likely be 85-90m, or $10.5m/year or so...

I think the worst cap crunch will be next year, so the relief might be nice, but I'm sure Dubas &c. have gamed it out and would much rather Nylander making $3-4m less in year 3.

I doubt there's a bridge on the table.

I have no idea what a bridge would look like, but it might be the easiest path to ending the stalemate. Leafs push the Nylander question down the road and deal with it after M&M are locked up long term.  Bridge of 2 or  3 years, Leafs may win a Cup in that time, so... you know.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Just heard on Tim and Sid that Nylander's agent also reps Johnny Gaudreau, who in 2016 went all the way to October 10th, the day before the season started, to sign his RFA contract. He went on to have the worst statistical season of his career.

Kucherov signed his bridge deal in 2016 just two days before Tampa opened their regular season, and he went on to have his best statistical season to date by adding 19 points to his previous career high.

Hmmm I sense we are debating notions of causality here.  The connection between performance and when someone signs a contract is ... not obvious to me.

Well I think the point Sid and Tim were making (and others have made it here as well) is that missing training camp could seriously hurt Nylander's performance during the season... like it did with Gaudreau. I just wanted to point out that other players have missed training camp in the past too and it didn't effect them. So there is no connection there.

It's not like Nylander isn't out there somewhere skating everyday right now too just like the guys in camp are.

 

[Zee]

Just heard on Tim and Sid that Nylander's agent also reps Johnny Gaudreau, who in 2016 went all the way to October 10th, the day before the season started, to sign his RFA contract. He went on to have the worst statistical season of his career.

Kucherov signed his bridge deal in 2016 just two days before Tampa opened their regular season, and he went on to have his best statistical season to date by adding 19 points to his previous career high.

Hmmm I sense we are debating notions of causality here.  The connection between performance and when someone signs a contract is ... not obvious to me.

Well I think the point Sid and Tim were making (and others have made it here as well) is that missing training camp could seriously hurt Nylander's performance during the season... like it did with Gaudreau. I just wanted to point out that other players have missed training camp in the past too and it didn't effect them. So there is no connection there.

It's not like Nylander isn't out there somewhere skating everyday right now too just like the guys in camp are.

We don't know that for sure.  He could be hanging in Sweden on a couch eating Gubbr?ra and nachos all day.

 

[Kaberle15]

a deal similar to the one that Kadri has signed could be a nice Bridge deal with less term, say 4 years at 4.5Mi hit.

 

[Coco-puffs]

a deal similar to the one that Kadri has signed could be a nice Bridge deal with less term, say 4 years at 4.5Mi hit.

You can take it to the bank that they won't be giving out a 4 yr contract.  That takes him right to his first UFA year.  A 3 yr bridge will be more than 5M IMO.  The only way we get a 4.5M cap hit with Nylander is if he's signing just a 1 yr deal

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

Just heard on Tim and Sid that Nylander's agent also reps Johnny Gaudreau, who in 2016 went all the way to October 10th, the day before the season started, to sign his RFA contract. He went on to have the worst statistical season of his career.

Kucherov signed his bridge deal in 2016 just two days before Tampa opened their regular season, and he went on to have his best statistical season to date by adding 19 points to his previous career high.

Hmmm I sense we are debating notions of causality here.  The connection between performance and when someone signs a contract is ... not obvious to me.

Well I think the point Sid and Tim were making (and others have made it here as well) is that missing training camp could seriously hurt Nylander's performance during the season... like it did with Gaudreau. I just wanted to point out that other players have missed training camp in the past too and it didn't effect them. So there is no connection there.

It's not like Nylander isn't out there somewhere skating everyday right now too just like the guys in camp are.

We don't know that for sure.  He could be hanging in Sweden on a couch eating Gubbr?ra and nachos all day.

It's funny, because RFA holdouts won't come to camp because they fear injury, yet, like you guys point out, what are they doing in the meantime? Probably skating and working out.