Contracts for the Big-3

[ZBBM]

Why do they all have to fly to Switzerland to talk?  Dubas could just go to Sweden, or, what makes the most sense, Nylander could just come to TO and if a deal is worked out, boom, he's there.

This isn't the United Freaking Nations where you have to go to some kind of symbolic neutral ground to do a negotiation.  It's a hockey contract.

 

[Guru Tugginmypuddah]

Why do they all have to fly to Switzerland to talk?  Dubas could just go to Sweden, or, what makes the most sense, Nylander could just come to TO and if a deal is worked out, boom, he's there.

This isn't the United Freaking Nations where you have to go to some kind of symbolic neutral ground to do a negotiation.  It's a hockey contract.

It's symbolic.  Nylander is willing to move a little bit off his demands, but not all the way or even half way.  If they were meeting in the Azores, would have been a better sign. 

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Couldn't you say the same about Nylander to a degree?

Um, no? I'm not sure what you mean by that.

Exactly. How is $7-8mil now worse than $10+mil long term 3yrs from now going forward? Maybe they're betting on the arbitrator not giving him that much?

There's only a handful of players out there with a $10mil AAV. I like Nylander, but it's difficult for me to project him at a $10mil AAV a few years from now. Even if the cap rises a little bit.

 

[Fanatic]

Why do they all have to fly to Switzerland to talk?  Dubas could just go to Sweden, or, what makes the most sense, Nylander could just come to TO and if a deal is worked out, boom, he's there.

This isn't the United Freaking Nations where you have to go to some kind of symbolic neutral ground to do a negotiation.  It's a hockey contract.

My guess would be that it is an important gesture on behalf of the Leafs. If things work out then Dubas is the hero for doing all that he could to get things done, and if things do not work out then no one can blame him for trying. There is nothing wrong at all in Dubas going there to make a face to face pitch.

 

[Fanatic]

And if things do not work out, Lebrun, over at The Athletic opines:

"Would Carolina be willing to move 23-year-old Brett Pesce, for example? He?s in the first season of a six-year, $24.15-million deal, a cap-friendly contract charging $4.025 million a year for a good, young defenceman who would automatically step into Toronto?s top four. That would surely appeal to the Leafs. Mind you, it?s also the same reason budget-conscious Carolina loves the player. But for a talent like Nylander, would Carolina bite?"

 

[CarltonTheBear]

And if things do not work out, Lebrun, over at The Athletic opines:

"Would Carolina be willing to move 23-year-old Brett Pesce, for example? He?s in the first season of a six-year, $24.15-million deal, a cap-friendly contract charging $4.025 million a year for a good, young defenceman who would automatically step into Toronto?s top four. That would surely appeal to the Leafs. Mind you, it?s also the same reason budget-conscious Carolina loves the player. But for a talent like Nylander, would Carolina bite?"

My preference would still be to keep Nylander (and I really believe they will), but this is one of the few (maybe only) suggestions that I think makes sense for both sides. Pesce is a very underrated defenceman, especially for the analytically-inclined. He also appears to have been bumped down the line-up a bit with the Hamilton trade.

I think Nylander's the more valuable player, so I'd be pushing hard to get something else included in the deal as well, but it's a good starting point if a trade was the only option.

 

[rdowdall]

James Mirtle is saying they're heading towards a bridge deal based on the sources he's talked to.


https://theathletic.com/594581/2018/10/17/mirtle-william-nylander-stalemate-with-the-maple-leafs-appears-headed-for-a-bridge-deal-solution/

It's probably best for Nylander to go bridge. Has worked out well for other players in the past.

Bridge isn't ideal for the Leafs.

I disagree.  I think a bridge is actually the best thing for the Leafs.  I'm of the opinion that the Leafs have to get through the next two years, because of the Marleau contract.  So get Nylander in now at a lower hit for two years.  Get Marner and Matthews signed next year hopefully with some space because Nylander took the bridge, and then when Nylander's contract runs out you have the ability to revisit the discussions and slot Nylander in someplace around where Marner and Matthews are. 

Even with talk that Matthews wants a short deal, I still see it coming in around 12 million. 

I hear ya. I guess it depends on the parameters of the deal. Best case for the Leafs in my opinion would be 8 years at $6.5m which I thought was a fair target in the offseason.

If they can get Willy at $7m or $7.5m on an 8 year deal, I still think that?ll be better than what the number will be two years from now.

The Leafs might have to get creative in the interim.

Exactly. How is $7-8mil now worse than $10+mil long term 3yrs from now going forward? Maybe they're betting on the arbitrator not giving him that much?

Because they will have the space to absorb that 10 million.  You have to accept the premise though that the Leafs are going to be top heavy.  If that is the approach they are taking, and they are building this team around those 4, then the reality of the situation is that those 4 are going to take up a sizeable chunk of the cap.  If that is the reality, then you need to get out from under the Marleau contract so that you can make that happen.  I'm looking at it from a perspective of having Marner, Nylander, Matthews, and Tavares each, signed for more than 10 million going forward. 

Matthews to me is the one you need to worry about.  If he goes out and scores 70 goals, and has over 100 points and leads the team in scoring, then he could very well walk in to Dubas's office and say "I want 5 years and I want the max percentage of the cap." and there really isn't a whole lot you can do about it, because I imagine a team like Arizona would be willing to do that. 

Also, I wonder in there are future ideas about what the players are going to bargain for in the next CBA.  For example, what if the players put forth the notion of escalator clauses in their contracts.  In such a case, the deal is negotiated out as a percentage of the teams cap space moving forward year to year, with a base amount so that if the cap declines, the salary never gets below a certain point.  It would mean that rather than reporting salaries as a flat rate, you would report them as a percentage.  This would get around the tag up rule. 

 

[mr grieves]

James Mirtle is saying they're heading towards a bridge deal based on the sources he's talked to.


https://theathletic.com/594581/2018/10/17/mirtle-william-nylander-stalemate-with-the-maple-leafs-appears-headed-for-a-bridge-deal-solution/

It's probably best for Nylander to go bridge. Has worked out well for other players in the past.

Bridge isn't ideal for the Leafs.

I disagree.  I think a bridge is actually the best thing for the Leafs.  I'm of the opinion that the Leafs have to get through the next two years, because of the Marleau contract.  So get Nylander in now at a lower hit for two years.  Get Marner and Matthews signed next year hopefully with some space because Nylander took the bridge, and then when Nylander's contract runs out you have the ability to revisit the discussions and slot Nylander in someplace around where Marner and Matthews are. 

Even with talk that Matthews wants a short deal, I still see it coming in around 12 million. 

I agree. Bridging Nylander gets them through the worst of it (Marleau, but also Andersen) and gives them the flexibility to extend Gardiner, unless he wants an open-market deal (5.5-6 vs 7).

Only becomes a (potential) problem if Marner and Matthews also want bridges.

 

[cabber24]

Where are the paparazzi shots? I want to see the pics of Dubas entering the hotel lobby followed by team Nylander.

 

[disco]

Indeed. But the thing about getting the max the cap allows (around $16.5-mill) means the less cheese to go around and fill out a roster you actually enjoy playing with/for. All the superstars know this. It's why Sid is at $8.7 x forever and Connor kept his number where he did. I'd be very surprised if Auston and Mitch maxed out for this simple reason.

 

[Frank E]

James Mirtle is saying they're heading towards a bridge deal based on the sources he's talked to.


https://theathletic.com/594581/2018/10/17/mirtle-william-nylander-stalemate-with-the-maple-leafs-appears-headed-for-a-bridge-deal-solution/

It's probably best for Nylander to go bridge. Has worked out well for other players in the past.

Bridge isn't ideal for the Leafs.

I disagree.  I think a bridge is actually the best thing for the Leafs.  I'm of the opinion that the Leafs have to get through the next two years, because of the Marleau contract.  So get Nylander in now at a lower hit for two years.  Get Marner and Matthews signed next year hopefully with some space because Nylander took the bridge, and then when Nylander's contract runs out you have the ability to revisit the discussions and slot Nylander in someplace around where Marner and Matthews are. 

Even with talk that Matthews wants a short deal, I still see it coming in around 12 million. 

I agree. Bridging Nylander gets them through the worst of it (Marleau, but also Andersen) and gives them the flexibility to extend Gardiner, unless he wants an open-market deal (5.5-6 vs 7).

Only becomes a (potential) problem if Marner and Matthews also want bridges.

Is bridging all three really a problem though?  Given it seems they all want market long-term contracts, I'm not sure it's really an issue.

 

[disco]

And if things do not work out, Lebrun, over at The Athletic opines:

"Would Carolina be willing to move 23-year-old Brett Pesce, for example? He?s in the first season of a six-year, $24.15-million deal, a cap-friendly contract charging $4.025 million a year for a good, young defenceman who would automatically step into Toronto?s top four. That would surely appeal to the Leafs. Mind you, it?s also the same reason budget-conscious Carolina loves the player. But for a talent like Nylander, would Carolina bite?"

My preference would still be to keep Nylander (and I really believe they will), but this is one of the few (maybe only) suggestions that I think makes sense for both sides. Pesce is a very underrated defenceman, especially for the analytically-inclined. He also appears to have been bumped down the line-up a bit with the Hamilton trade.

I think Nylander's the more valuable player, so I'd be pushing hard to get something else included in the deal as well, but it's a good starting point if a trade was the only option.

Agreed. Willy is "more" than just a pure sniper. He's in that special class of being able to make something out of nothing 5-on-5. He's a dynamic winger.

 

[mr grieves]

Is bridging all three really a problem though?  Given it seems they all want market long-term contracts, I'm not sure it's really an issue.

What's market for Matthews after a 4/5 year bridge? $16m? Nylander at $12, Marner at the same... I mean, long-term market value contracts for stars ended up being a problem for the Hawks, didn't it? At the very least, their margin for error gets a lot tighter, and they'll have to keep turning over complementary players and replacing them with later and later picks.

 

[Kin]

Matthews to me is the one you need to worry about.  If he goes out and scores 70 goals, and has over 100 points and leads the team in scoring, then he could very well walk in to Dubas's office and say "I want 5 years and I want the max percentage of the cap." and there really isn't a whole lot you can do about it, because I imagine a team like Arizona would be willing to do that. 

I've still never understood why people thought that. Lets leave aside that Matthews has never come across as some sort of Country mouse who would rather be back home in Glendale(the profiles of him definitely present a  guy who likes the finer aspects of big city life) it doesn't really make sense for a team that's probably working with an internal cap like Arizona.

 

[disco]

https://twitter.com/kristen_shilton/status/1052621757964804097

 

[Kin]

What's market for Matthews after a 4/5 year bridge? $16m? Nylander at $12, Marner at the same... I mean, long-term market value contracts for stars ended up being a problem for the Hawks, didn't it? At the very least, their margin for error gets a lot tighter, and they'll have to keep turning over complementary players and replacing them with later and later picks.

That all may be but sometimes I sort of think that absent a few possibilities here or there, I think the idea that any team can sign their big talent and still be a serious, top of the league contender for more than a few years is probably unlikely.

Or, conversely, "contending" is going to be about teams ether built on the Pittsburgh model of elite talent but so-so depth or the Nashville model of solid depth but not so much in the way of elite talent.

 

[Bates]

Can't say I've ever heard anyone suggest Scottsdale and Phoenix don't have the finer aspects of Big City Life??  Assume you know none of the Coyotes live in Glendale.

Matthews to me is the one you need to worry about.  If he goes out and scores 70 goals, and has over 100 points and leads the team in scoring, then he could very well walk in to Dubas's office and say "I want 5 years and I want the max percentage of the cap." and there really isn't a whole lot you can do about it, because I imagine a team like Arizona would be willing to do that. 

I've still never understood why people thought that. Lets leave aside that Matthews has never come across as some sort of Country mouse who would rather be back home in Glendale(the profiles of him definitely present a  guy who likes the finer aspects of big city life) it doesn't really make sense for a team that's probably working with an internal cap like Arizona.

 

[Kin]

Can't say I've ever heard anyone suggest Scottsdale and Phoenix don't have the finer aspects of Big City Life??  Assume you know none of the Coyotes live in Glendale.

With apologies to Herman:

Lol

 

[ZBBM]

Can't say I've ever heard anyone suggest Scottsdale and Phoenix don't have the finer aspects of Big City Life??  Assume you know none of the Coyotes live in Glendale.

With apologies to Herman:

Lol

The way the Yotes started the year I would guess that most of them live in Sun City West.

 

[Highlander]

I spend my winters in north Scottsdale and I love the place, would love to live there full time but can only do up to 6 months less a day