Downtown Connor Brown Re-signed 3 x $2.1

[Highlander]

Great deal. Nicely done.

 

[Bullfrog]

I'm very pleased with this deal. $2.1M for a very versatile, young player is great.

 

[KadriFan]

Great deal.  Hope he's a Leaf for a very long time.

 

[freer]

I don't know. I like Kapanen a lot but I wouldn't slot him above Brown just yet. Hyman is certainly replaceable but he fills a need.

They signed 3 and 4 year deals so don't know what you mean by keeping them around much longer. You mean trade them this season?

Well, I think I'm being intentionally vague there. I don't think there's any immediate need to trade either guy but I can't really see them sticking around past the extensions they just signed either so the team should be aware of that and be open to possibilities of moving them.

With regards to Brown vs. Kapanen while we may disagree about where they are now(again, I think Kapanen was a better AHL player than Brown was and to my eye looked at least to be his equal as a player in his short NHL stint) I think it's fair to say that Kapanen is probably a better long-term bet because of his relative youth.

In the immediate sense, the Leafs will have enough cap room before their big extensions kick in that even if I'm right and Kapanen establishes himself as the #3 guy at RW this year that Brown on the 4th line and doing PK duties is fine for now. Once those extensions kick in though then 2+ million 4th liners is a luxury you probably can't maintain for long.

The only caveat there is that, again, if I'm right and Kapanen is the #3 guy then Brown is going to have a lot of trouble re-creating his offensive output from last year. So trading him beyond this year might get you less if you're not trading him as a "23 year old 20 goal scorer" but a 24 year old 4th liner but, again, if that's a risk the team wants to take I don't think it's a calamity or anything.

That said, you do have to weigh that risk against what we could say would really be the loss between having Brown in that 4th line RW and whoever would replace him...Sosh or Leivo or someone. Is it a lot? Eh.

Anyways, my feelings here have less to do with me and my thoughts on Brown(outside of thinking he's not super-important to the team's future) and more to do with the fact that NHL teams can really only play four RW's.

Why would think Brown would have a hard time repeating last season. He has improved every year in every league he has played in.

 

[Bullfrog]

I think the assumption is that Kapanen will take his spot at some point and bump him down the line-up. This will mean fewer opportunities and lesser linemates.

 

[Kin]

Why would think Brown would have a hard time repeating last season. He has improved every year in every league he has played in.

Leaving aside that it's not that impressive for someone to do better every year they're in Major Junior or the AHL the reason is what I mentioned about him potentially being relegated to 4th line status.

 

[ZBBM]

You've got a 20-goal scorer signed at a bargain rate.  Well done. Still, if he starts the season off well, I'd look to trade him for a comparable defenseman sooner rather than later. 

 

[Kin]

I think the assumption is that Kapanen will take his spot at some point and bump him down the line-up. This will mean fewer opportunities and lesser linemates.

Well, someone with better access to advanced stats than I have could maybe correct this but even regardless of Kapanen it seems unlikely that Brown will get much time with Matthews this year. Kadri wasn't a huge offensive downgrade last year but he still was one.

Also, again, regardless of Kapanen you have the high SH% and the possibility he doesn't see much PP time.

 

[Bullfrog]

Plus, I'm pretty hesitant to call Brown a 20-goal scorer. I'd rather: someone who has once scored 20 goals. Kulemin scored 30 in one season.

 

[L K]

It's a good deal.  If he can get lucky he's still a 15-20 goal scorer.  He's a decent penalty killer and he plays hard.  2.1 million is movable in a trade too.

 

[ZBBM]

Plus, I'm pretty hesitant to call Brown a 20-goal scorer. I'd rather: someone who has once scored 20 goals. Kulemin scored 30 in one season.

Good point.  After all, Jason Blake was a "40-goal-scorer" once too.  Blargh.

 

[herman]

I think the assumption is that Kapanen will take his spot at some point and bump him down the line-up. This will mean fewer opportunities and lesser linemates.

Well, someone with better access to advanced stats than I have could maybe correct this but even regardless of Kapanen it seems unlikely that Brown will get much time with Matthews this year. Kadri wasn't a huge offensive downgrade last year but he still was one.

Also, again, regardless of Kapanen you have the high SH% and the possibility he doesn't see much PP time.

I mentioned this in another thread, but nearly half of Brown's EV points came from his time spent with Matthews, equaling his output with Kadri in 10% less time. If he's going to be solidly taped to Kadri's wing*, I don't see him netting 20 again. He was one of three players who routinely played all three phases of the game (Komarov and Zaitsev being the others) and Lou has already said (of Zaitsev) that he'd prefer players to operate in two.

Brown and Kapanen both occupy the same roster niche, but 2 years apart. If we throw Hyman into the RW pile as well, Brown is sort of the middle-man of the three, player-profile-wise. They're all the types of players we'd like to fill out our depth with cheaply (flexible plug-and-play for offensive or defensive complements), and then sell off for needs (Kapanen being the higher end of the three).

* Corsi improved for Kadri and Brown when they were together. Both Brown's and Matthews' CF% were better when they were apart than together (obviously because they both could play with Kadri and Nylander respectively).

 

[OldTimeHockey]

I mentioned this in another thread, but nearly half of Brown's EV points came from his time spent with Matthews, equaling his output with Kadri in 10% less time. If he's going to be solidly taped to Kadri's wing*, I don't see him netting 20 again.

I'm not necesarily disagreeing with you and I'm going to have a hard time asking this question but..here goes;
If he equaled his output with Matthews in 10% less time, wouldn't that mean he'd only drop by 2 goals(10% of 20 goals) if he spent that Matthews time solely with Kadri?

 

[Kin]

I'm not necesarily disagreeing with you and I'm going to have a hard time asking this question but..here goes;
If he equaled his output with Matthews in 10% less time, wouldn't that mean he'd only drop by 2 goals(10% of 20 goals) if he spent that Matthews time solely with Kadri?

That may be but a lot of people here are certainly investing a lot in Brown having sort of hit that fairly arbitrary 20 goal mark.

Round numbers shouldn't mean that much but there you go. A slight drop in shooting percentage and the reduction in linemates and you're probably talking about a 15 goal scorer which isn't terribly exciting for a 3rd line player.

 

[herman]

I should correct myself here after checking in on the numbers.

Here's his goal/points breakdown by line and home/away:

Line	TOI	EV Pts	EV Gs	HG	AG	HA	AA
Kadri	41.81%	11	6	4	2	5	0
Matthews	33.76%	13	7	1	6	4	2
Bozak	6.86%	3	3	1	2	0	0
4th	4.88%	2	1	1	0	1	0

In addition, 3 of his goals were empty netters.

Take out the 7 goals with Matthews and pro-rate his results with Kadri (~5 I'm ballparking because I don't have 5v5 iGF60), scrub out the PP time goals (3), EN goals aren't super sustainable (probably what contributed to the SH%), and we're looking at 13-16 goals if Brown is Kadri's buddy and SH specialist with the same-ish luck as last year. I'm expecting 10-15. If he gets PP time (especially with Bozak and JvR gone), then add 2.

 

[Bullfrog]

I'm not necesarily disagreeing with you and I'm going to have a hard time asking this question but..here goes;
If he equaled his output with Matthews in 10% less time, wouldn't that mean he'd only drop by 2 goals(10% of 20 goals) if he spent that Matthews time solely with Kadri?

That may be but a lot of people here are certainly investing a lot in Brown having sort of hit that fairly arbitrary 20 goal mark.

Round numbers shouldn't mean that much but there you go. A slight drop in shooting percentage and the reduction in linemates and you're probably talking about a 15 goal scorer which isn't terribly exciting for a 3rd line player.

That's actually on the upper end of what would be expected out of a 3rd line player.

 

[Kin]

That's actually on the upper end of what would be expected out of a 3rd line player.

And...you think that someone producing within roughly the upper 1/6 of third line forwards in goal production is terribly exciting?

If so I'm happy to retract my statement to the contrary.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

After the Hyman deal I was pretty worried that Brown was going to come in at or over $3mil. I'm glad one of these made sense.

 

[Bullfrog]

Yes, extremely exciting. I can barely contain myself.

 

[herman]

They're (very) good third line numbers, but our top nine pretty much played 2nd line minutes across the board. So for a second liner, that's... lower half of average? I don't know where the thresholds are actually. Anyone have a breakdown by line?