Draft Pick Watch - WE PICKED NYLANDER!!1!!

[GhostofPotvin29]

No one says they can't.

Of course they can, but, hoping that players outside of their prime years have careers seasons is a pretty terrible team building strategy.

"Dear Mr. Heims, I have an urgent phone call for you"

Man, I wish back then that I had any idea to look at a player's SH% or understood it's unpredictable nature or the effect it can have on a player's stats.

http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8467844 - which season does his SH% stand out?

 

[bustaheims]

"Dear Mr. Heims, I have an urgent phone call for you"

<snip>

If only the team had learned from that mistake instead of making a similar but much more egregious mistake last summer.

 

[Redleaf]

No one says they can't.

Of course they can, but, hoping that players outside of their prime years have careers seasons is a pretty terrible team building strategy.

So what does that mean for guys like Rielly and Gardiner?

 

[bustaheims]

So what does that mean for guys like Rielly and Gardiner?

Well, it means that, 3 or 4 seasons from now for Gardiner and a couple years later for Rielly, the odds are that their offensive production will have either peaked or plateaued. If they really are as good as we hope they are, then the drop off will be gradual and subtle, and will hopefully be accompanied by improvements in the defensive side of their game, but, if they haven't really broken out offensively by then, it's highly unlikely that they will. It also means that, if the team wants to really take advantage of their most productive seasons, they should be looking at having the team they see as a true contender in place in the next 2 seasons or so.

 

[Champ Kind]

So, to me, it's fairly clear that this team has once again come to a crossroads: either tear it down or go all in and try to seriously compete.  Trying to occupy the middle ground for any length of time is foolish.

But that, honestly, makes the point moot. If the choices the team has are between tearing down or hoping that this core is going to compete in the next few years then it's more or less crazytown to argue for the latter. I'm sorry, but you'll never convince me that making small changes over the course of the next three years to augment the current core is tantamount to "occupying the middle ground" but keeping the exact same core around is a serious commitment to winning.

I'm not sure how to respond because I thought I was countering your point just to find I agree with you (I think).  If, say, a Chara fell into the Leafs lap, or a Thornton (Joe, that is) was available, or if somehow the Leafs managed to replicate the Jays luck in literally finding two franchise players in the dumpster, then I think this group could win and win big (duh, right?). 

I guess what I'm saying is that the Leafs have a decent, but not great, group.  But, I guess I would have said the same thing about the Rangers so what the heck do I know.

 

[Redleaf]

So, to me, it's fairly clear that this team has once again come to a crossroads: either tear it down or go all in and try to seriously compete.  Trying to occupy the middle ground for any length of time is foolish.

But that, honestly, makes the point moot. If the choices the team has are between tearing down or hoping that this core is going to compete in the next few years then it's more or less crazytown to argue for the latter. I'm sorry, but you'll never convince me that making small changes over the course of the next three years to augment the current core is tantamount to "occupying the middle ground" but keeping the exact same core around is a serious commitment to winning.

I mean, if nothing else, by the definition of a player's prime that people are using it would seem as though trading Phaneuf right now would be pretty reasonable for any reason.

Yeah. If we're talking about going for it now with players in their prime years, the trading away of Phaneuf, who at 29, shouldn't come into the argument anyway. :

 

[Kin]

I'm not sure how to respond because I thought I was countering your point just to find I agree with you (I think).  If, say, a Chara fell into the Leafs lap, or a Thornton (Joe, that is) was available, or if somehow the Leafs managed to replicate the Jays luck in literally finding two franchise players in the dumpster, then I think this group could win and win big (duh, right?).

But that right there seems like the best possible argument for the Leafs doing whatever they can to trade for the top pick in a draft. If the idea is that the two choices the Leafs have are a total rebuild or turning this current group into a contender within the next one or two years then they need pretty bold and drastic action to try and make that come about. I mean, then you're talking about taking a guy like Ekblad and hoping the scouts are wrong about his ability to immediately make an impact almost as a matter of necessity.

 

[Champ Kind]

I'm not sure how to respond because I thought I was countering your point just to find I agree with you (I think).  If, say, a Chara fell into the Leafs lap, or a Thornton (Joe, that is) was available, or if somehow the Leafs managed to replicate the Jays luck in literally finding two franchise players in the dumpster, then I think this group could win and win big (duh, right?).

But that right there seems like the best possible argument for the Leafs doing whatever they can to trade for the top pick in a draft. If the idea is that the two choices the Leafs have are a total rebuild or turning this current group into a contender within the next one or two years then they need pretty bold and drastic action to try and make that come about. I mean, then you're talking about taking a guy like Ekblad and hoping the scouts are wrong about his ability to immediately make an impact almost as a matter of necessity.

Yeah, you're right.  For whatever it's worth, though, I don't see the Leafs going this route.

 

[Redleaf]

So what does that mean for guys like Rielly and Gardiner?

Well, it means that, 3 or 4 seasons from now for Gardiner and a couple years later for Rielly, the odds are that their offensive production will have either peaked or plateaued. If they really are as good as we hope they are, then the drop off will be gradual and subtle, and will hopefully be accompanied by improvements in the defensive side of their game, but, if they haven't really broken out offensively by then, it's highly unlikely that they will. It also means that, if the team wants to really take advantage of their most productive seasons, they should be looking at having the team they see as a true contender in place in the next 2 seasons or so.

Yeah. I'm not buying it. Until we add a few more pieces to the mix, and we see them play some more playoff hockey, there's no way of telling how good this current group of Leafs actually are. Even if the rumor is true and Phaneuf is traded for a younger defensemen, it doesn't mean it's time to tear down the core of this squad. I mean, it's hard enough to build a competitive team that gels and can win together, let alone trying to bring in guys who's careers you hope will all peak at the same time.

 

[bustaheims]

I mean, it's hard enough to build a competitive team that gels and can win together, let alone trying to bring in guys who's careers you hope will all peak at the same time.

Of course, it's difficult, but it's also exactly what most teams who are among the best in the league for longer stretches do.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Ferraro on the radio saying the Leafs should move up to draft Ekblad and in next sentence says he probably tops out as 2nd pairing D.

 

[Redleaf]

I mean, it's hard enough to build a competitive team that gels and can win together, let alone trying to bring in guys who's careers you hope will all peak at the same time.

Of course, it's difficult, but it's also exactly what most teams who are among the best in the league for longer stretches do.

I would suggest that luck plays a big role in the success of the better teams in the league and that targeting players who are around the same age has very little to do with it.

 

[BlueWhiteBlood]

Ferraro on the radio saying the Leafs should move up to draft Ekblad and in next sentence says he probably tops out as 2nd pairing D.

I guess it depends on how far he thinks the Leafs would have to move up to get him. Because you're right, picking a 2nd pairing guy with the 1st or 2nd overall pick leaves you wanting a bit.

For the record, if I had that pick, I'd most likely go with Reinhart, based on what I'm reading and what people are saying about him.

This draft could be interesting for the Leafs. Depending on who goes in the first 5 picks or so, the Leafs might want to trade down and recoup a 2nd maybe, picking that Nik Ritchie kid.

 

[bustaheims]

I would suggest that luck plays a big role in the success of the better teams in the league and that targeting players who are around the same age has very little to do with it.

So, you're saying it's only a coincidence that the Bruins, Hawks, Rangers and the Kings both only have a handful of players over the age of 28 on their rosters? I'd say that's planning, not luck. If you look at these teams, you'll see that a big chunk of their roster and a big chunk of their core are within a 4 year age span. The luck comes in terms of you getting the right players instead having other teams get them, but, it's not a coincidence that teams try to build cores that are of similar age.

 

[Redleaf]

I would suggest that luck plays a big role in the success of the better teams in the league and that targeting players who are around the same age has very little to do with it.

So, you're saying it's only a coincidence that the Bruins, Hawks, Rangers and the Kings both only have a handful of players over the age of 28 on their rosters? I'd say that's planning, not luck. If you look at these teams, you'll see that a big chunk of their roster and a big chunk of their core are within a 4 year age span. The luck comes in terms of you getting the right players instead having other teams get them, but, it's not a coincidence that teams try to build cores that are of similar age.

Yeah. I think you answered your own question there.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I hope the Leafs can pick up a 2nd rounder for this draft.  Always seems like every draft there are one or two steals to be had in the 2nd.

 

[lamajama]

To give all a good laugh.....Healy was on HNIC radio today and said that if Tallon makes that deal with Phaneuf Kadri and 8 for 1 and Jovo and "I'd call him into the office and fire him".

 

[Tigger]

There's better trade value than that with those pieces, jeebus.

 

[losveratos]

There's better trade value than that with those pieces, jeebus.

The the team we're making the trade with thinks that Kadri could potentially be a #1ish player in the near future. A package of Phanuef, Kadri, and a 1st, could most likely land us an established 1st line Center. Someone perhaps part of a logjam at center or perhaps is coming to the end of their RFA status and the team can't get a deal done.

Even if we can't get that just yet, we could certainly get more than the 1st OA pick.

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

To give all a good laugh.....Healy was on HNIC radio today and said that if Tallon makes that deal with Phaneuf Kadri and 8 for 1 and Jovo and "I'd call him into the office and fire him".

Hilarity aside, that would leave the Panthers with a playoff bound roster and a bright future IMO.

Huberdeau, Barkov, Bjugstad, Kadri, Gudbranson, Phaneuf, Campbell, Luongo. A couple key additions in FA and some time for the kids to mature and that could be a pretty good team for some time yet.