Grabovski Bought Out

[L K]

Look up his PP time last season compared to previous seasons.

Ok. Last year he had 1:42 in PP time per game. He scored 3 points in that time. Given a total PP time of 81:49 that results in a power play point every 27:16 of PP time, right? The year before he had 2:05 per night in PP time and scored 10 points. That's a power play point every 15.5 minutes. The year before that he had 3:08 a night and 15 points which is somewhere in the neighbourhood of a point every 17 minutes.

So while Grabovski's PP time definitely went down, it's also pretty clear that he was significantly less effective with it.

It's not a great excuse given that Kadri did just fine in the situation but I felt like a lot of the PP-time the 2nd unit got was trying to pick up the pieces of ineffective 1st unit 1:30 long shifts.  Ultimately I'm not upset if 2012-2013 Grabovski is gone given his cap hit.  I'm just concerned that we aren't going to really be replacing him with anything better.

 

[Kin]

I look at games played and not just points?

Well, except when you're talking about Tyler "Never even scored 50 points" Bozak anyway.

 

[Champ Kind]

I wonder why his offensive numbers were down this season?

So, using this logic, you account for his poor 2009-2010 season how?

I look at games played and not just points? He had a 48 pt pace in a full season. Maybe slightly off other seasons but not significantly so if he battled injury.

I'm trying to get at the point that offensive zone starts, or some other derivative or metric, aren't the definitive reason you made them out to be in your statement.  I mean, he did have some significant health issues, which may have accounted for subpar performance, right?

And I'm trying to say he didn't have a bad season in 09-10.  Are you just ignoring that he only played 59 games and only looking at his point totals or what? I don't understand the criticism of his season.  At worst it was slightly below average for him.

See, I can appreciate the insight into a players game that statistics provides.  But I would suggest that if you're only using numbers and not actually watching - or choosing to recall - how a player actually played, then you're missing the boat.  My recollection of his game in 2009-2010 is very similar to his play this past season.  I was over-the-moon when he played as well as he did the following year.

And no, I'm not forgettng he played 59 games.  I distinctly remeber he broke his wrist getting in a bar fight against - allegedly, if I recall - a group of people, including a female, while at the Olympics in Vancouver.

I guess I'm growing weary over this theme of "big, stupid Randy Carlyle didn't realize Mikhail Grabovski is the next Sergei Fedorov" that Grabovski himself is propogating.

 

[mr grieves]

Not exactly following this. 8 ES points in 584 Kessel-free minutes, you're saying?

If so, that's .822 P/60... which isn't really as far from Bozak's with-Kessel production as I would've thought. Those are: 2012/13's contract season 1.55 & 2011/12's 1.66, respectively.

Fun fact: Grabbo's also scored at a rate of 1.55 P/60! While playing with McClement and Kuli. Otherwise, his numbers are 2.08 (2011/12), 2.06 (10/11), 1.96 (09/10), and 1.84 (08/09).

As far as metrics go, ES P/60 has a ways to go. Well, that or someone should really tell Pittsburgh they got hosed with the Malkin contract. Well, that or we should look to trade Phil Kessel for Matt Cullen.

I wasn't trying to say he was great at special teams. Just that he was the best ES center the team had. ES/60's a fine stat for supporting that argument.

 

[Champ Kind]

A bit late to this debate but, in reading Grabovski's asinine comments on his way out the door, I'm very much left with the feeling of 'good riddance'.  I won't put too much into this, since I try to avoid dressing room talk and such, but the guy doesn't exactly seem like he directs his, um, 'passion', in a constructive manner. 

"I play in the [expletive] Russian KHL, I make lots of [expletive] points and what's going to happen? He make me [expletive] play on the fourth line and he put me in the playoffs on the fourth line and third line again," Grabovski spewed. "Yeah, I don't score goals. I need to work more about that. I know that. But if you feel support from your coach [you'll find success]. I don't feel any support from this [expletive] idiot."

The character issues are pretty apparent here.

I'm not sure how this proves character issues?  He acknowledges that he wasn't performing to expectations but is pissed that he had poor communication with the coach and then was released a year after signing a pretty big contract that indicated he would be with the team in the long-term.  The language and way he responded wasn't really all that mature, I agree, but I can completely understand the frustration under the situation. 

Player A: "We played a good game, kept things simple, do the little things, give 110%"
Fan Response: I hate when players show no emotion and issue generic statements

Player B: "I'm pissed off"
Fan Response: He has character issues

LK, come on.  There's a difference between saying "I'm pissed" and my coach is a "(expletive) idiot".  A huge difference, in fact.

 

[mr grieves]

I look at games played and not just points?

Well, except when you're talking about Tyler "Never even scored 50 points" Bozak anyway.

And this season he projected all the way to 50 with rounding. Yes.

 

[Kin]

It's not a great excuse given that Kadri did just fine in the situation but I felt like a lot of the PP-time the 2nd unit got was trying to pick up the pieces of ineffective 1st unit 1:30 long shifts. 

There's some truth to that. Thing is there was some truth to it the year before too where Grabovski was significantly more effective. The thing about Grabovski's season is that the truth lies in the middle of the "He's a bum get rid of him" and the "He would have won an Art Ross if he'd started 5.8% more of his face-offs in the neutral zone" positions. He stunk, he played pretty well in a third line role and the team had to address those realities going forward.

 

[Kin]

I wasn't trying to say he was great at special teams. Just that he was the best ES center the team had. ES/60's a fine stat for supporting that argument.

Yes, but as the old saying goes statistics shouldn't be used the way a drunk uses a lamppost. They're for illumination, not support.

 

[TML fan]

Look up his PP time last season compared to previous seasons.

Ok. Last year he had 1:42 in PP time per game. He scored 3 points in that time. Given a total PP time of 81:49 that results in a power play point every 27:16 of PP time, right? The year before he had 2:05 per night in PP time and scored 10 points. That's a power play point every 15.5 minutes. The year before that he had 3:08 a night and 15 points which is somewhere in the neighbourhood of a point every 17 minutes.

So while Grabovski's PP time definitely went down, it's also pretty clear that he was significantly less effective with it.

It's not a great excuse given that Kadri did just fine in the situation but I felt like a lot of the PP-time the 2nd unit got was trying to pick up the pieces of ineffective 1st unit 1:30 long shifts.  Ultimately I'm not upset if 2012-2013 Grabovski is gone given his cap hit.  I'm just concerned that we aren't going to really be replacing him with anything better.

Grabovski has already been replaced, twice.

 

[mr grieves]

I wasn't trying to say he was great at special teams. Just that he was the best ES center the team had. ES/60's a fine stat for supporting that argument.

Yes, but as the old saying goes statistics shouldn't be used the way a drunk uses a lamppost. They're for illumination, not support.

Thanks for the adage, but it's a distinction without a difference. ES P/60 illuminates that Grabbo was the best center on the team for the last 4 seasons. Better?

 

[Champ Kind]

That's pretty much it...if Nonis brings in a centre that's better than Grabovski, then the move makes sense.  The issue is - of the reported centres that are available, I'm not sure there IS a centre better than Grabovski.  Thornton, Stastny...and that's it.  For me, guys like Ribero, Roy and Weiss would be, at best, a wash.

That's my feeling, anyway.  I still maintain that the only reason this move happens is because Nonis is doing something imminently and needs the room to make it happen.

But I'm not suggesting the replacement(s) will be an UFA.  I think Clarkson to Toronto is likely, but that would have happened regardless.  If anyone here knew that Chiarelli would deal Seguin, I want to speak to you about your 6 favorite numbers between 1-49.  I think a trade, or trades, are going to happen.

Personally, I'm excited.  I have faith in Nonis and the management team.  I think the time and place is just about right for the Leafs to be able to take a serious step forward in acquiring talent because of the unique landscape of this summer.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

It's not a great excuse given that Kadri did just fine in the situation but I felt like a lot of the PP-time the 2nd unit got was trying to pick up the pieces of ineffective 1st unit 1:30 long shifts. 

There's some truth to that. Thing is there was some truth to it the year before too where Grabovski was significantly more effective. The thing about Grabovski's season is that the truth lies in the middle of the "He's a bum get rid of him" and the "He would have won an Art Ross if he'd started 5.8% more of his face-offs in the neutral zone" positions. He stunk, he played pretty well in a third line role and the team had to address those realities going forward.

I think the point is they should not have taken such drastic actions with Grabovski on the basis of a subpar half-year. It's not a good sample size to base his future contribution off. Maybe Nonis has a grand plan to bring someone in but it seems like a big move to make based on 48 games.

 

[Kin]

And this season he projected all the way to 50 with rounding. Yes.

And the year before 53. And two years before that 60. Bozak has only had one year of his career where he didn't project out to a 50 point scorer. Saying Bozak isn't a 50 point scorer is exactly the same as saying Grabo only scored 35 points that year.

 

[Champ Kind]

I wasn't trying to say he was great at special teams. Just that he was the best ES center the team had. ES/60's a fine stat for supporting that argument.

Yes, but as the old saying goes statistics shouldn't be used the way a drunk uses a lamppost. They're for illumination, not support.

Thanks for the adage, but it's a distinction without a difference. ES P/60 illuminates that Grabbo was the best center on the team for the last 4 seasons. Better?

The bolded above is, I believe, an excellent example of "Damning with faint praise".

 

[Kin]

Thanks for the adage, but it's a distinction without a difference. ES P/60 illuminates that Grabbo was the best center on the team for the last 4 seasons. Better?

The statistic isn't a good one for saying who's better than someone else at anything. Joe Thornton was 174th last year. Antoine Roussel was 19th. Sven Baertschi finished about 100 spots higher than Evgeni Malkin. Nik Kulemin and Jay McClement, the two bums who held Grabovski back from his 7th straight Hart trophy last year, finished about 200 places higher than he did.

 

[Champ Kind]

It's not a great excuse given that Kadri did just fine in the situation but I felt like a lot of the PP-time the 2nd unit got was trying to pick up the pieces of ineffective 1st unit 1:30 long shifts. 

There's some truth to that. Thing is there was some truth to it the year before too where Grabovski was significantly more effective. The thing about Grabovski's season is that the truth lies in the middle of the "He's a bum get rid of him" and the "He would have won an Art Ross if he'd started 5.8% more of his face-offs in the neutral zone" positions. He stunk, he played pretty well in a third line role and the team had to address those realities going forward.

I think the point is they should not have taken such drastic actions with Grabovski on the basis of a subpar half-year. It's not a good sample size to base his future contribution off. Maybe Nonis has a grand plan to bring someone in but it seems like a big move to make based on 48 games.

Potvin, I can see that Grabovski was one of your favorites but you're looking at this whole thing with rose coloured glasses.  I mean, players fall out of favour.  Players may develop issues.  Was the decision to move Tyler Seguin based on a poor 20 game playoff run?  Or were there other concerns that management had?  Suggesting that the decision to buy-out Grabovski is based only on his weak on-ice performance last year is short-sighted.

 

[Zee]

Thanks for the adage, but it's a distinction without a difference. ES P/60 illuminates that Grabbo was the best center on the team for the last 4 seasons. Better?

The statistic isn't a good one for saying who's better than someone else at anything. Joe Thornton was 174th last year. Antoine Roussel was 19th. Sven Baertschi finished about 100 spots higher than Evgeni Malkin. Nik Kulemin and Jay McClement, the two bums who held Grabovski back from his 7th straight Hart trophy last year, finished about 200 places higher than he did.

This is why I hate most of the advanced stats, you can spin them any way you wish.

 

[Frank E]

It's not a great excuse given that Kadri did just fine in the situation but I felt like a lot of the PP-time the 2nd unit got was trying to pick up the pieces of ineffective 1st unit 1:30 long shifts. 

There's some truth to that. Thing is there was some truth to it the year before too where Grabovski was significantly more effective. The thing about Grabovski's season is that the truth lies in the middle of the "He's a bum get rid of him" and the "He would have won an Art Ross if he'd started 5.8% more of his face-offs in the neutral zone" positions. He stunk, he played pretty well in a third line role and the team had to address those realities going forward.

I think the point is they should not have taken such drastic actions with Grabovski on the basis of a subpar half-year. It's not a good sample size to base his future contribution off. Maybe Nonis has a grand plan to bring someone in but it seems like a big move to make based on 48 games.

Why are we assuming that Nonis based his decision on Grabbo's hockey playing skills over the past 48 games?

 

[cw]

I wonder why his offensive numbers were down this season?

Take away 4 mins of ice time per game
Take away 1:15 mins of PP ice time per game
Put him up against tougher competition in opponents
Start him in the D end much more than they used to
Reduce the scoring talent of those he's playing with (sometimes)
Change his role from second line center to checking center
Change from the transition system he flourished in with Wilson
Have him fight a gastrointestinal issue throughout the season causing the little guy to lose weight.

And then howl when he doesn't put up the same numbers?

I remember going through this with Reichel. In 2002, he played 2nd line center with Tucker & Mogilny and put up about 50 pts. By 2004, with Nieuwendyk signed, he was playing 4th line center with Fitzgerald and Domi and PKing and checking more along with a significant drop in his PP and overall ice time. Folks whined why he wasn't putting up 50 pts any more and what a dud he was.

You have to measure performance against the opportunity given. In 2013, Grabbo was given significantly less opportunity to put up points. That's a very solid observation based upon the facts.

Now, I'm also not saying Grabbo bore no responsibility and that he always played as well as he had. But I do feel a heck of a lot of what happened to his scoring production was due to circumstances out of his complete control and it's really unfair to overlook that or not take it into consideration.

As for his contract, he was heading into UFA status. Normal "price" for the two recent seasons he'd had at the time put him in the $4-4.5 mil/yr range. Like many teams, they overpaid $1-1.5 mil per year so they could hang on to him. And I'll bet when the bidding ends, he'll get close to $4 mil per year in the next few days - after a lousy season and in a market that's significantly tighter for cap dough. So his over payment was not grotesque. And neither was the term for a top 6 UFA center who had just turned 28 if the club wanted to keep him.

 

[Kin]

I think the point is they should not have taken such drastic actions with Grabovski on the basis of a subpar half-year. It's not a good sample size to base his future contribution off. Maybe Nonis has a grand plan to bring someone in but it seems like a big move to make based on 48 games.

I'd agree. Thing is I don't think they made the decision on the basis of his year last year. I think it's a decision made on the basis of Carlyle saying that going forward he doesn't really want Grabo on the team, certainly not if he's going to be playing 3rd line minutes and eating up that cap space.

Now, maybe that says to you that Dave Nonis should have fired Carlyle in favour of Grabovski and maybe that's true. But I don't think Nonis is a stupid or quick on the trigger guy. It was just decision time.