Horachek's impact on the team

[moon111]

It bothers me because on TV he seems so much more reasonable and I actually haven't minded him.

I agree that he's not as intolerable on TV, but lots of people look smarter when they have Nick Kypreos sitting next to them.

Where's the damn 'like' button on this forum?

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Hopefully this graph helps further demonstrate the way SH% + SV% fluctuate throughout the season.  X-axis is GP, Y-axis is PDO (aka even-strength SV% + SH% added together).  Above 100 means high SH% + SV%, below the opposite:

Take a look at how the Leafs' line goes up, down, up, down up, up, down, down, down.

Which is why it's not really worth getting bent out of shape over not scoring for a few games, or the goalies being poor for a few games.  It swings back and forth and over the course of a season typically settles in around 100 average.

I think that graph really helps show how a team's fortunes can sink or swim based on whether their PDO is up or down.

 

[Redleaf]

Hopefully this graph helps further demonstrate the way SH% + SV% fluctuate throughout the season.  X-axis is GP, Y-axis is PDO (aka even-strength SV% + SH% added together).  Above 100 means high SH% + SV%, below the opposite:

Take a look at how the Leafs' line goes up, down, up, down up, up, down, down, down.

Which is why it's not really worth getting bent out of shape over not scoring for a few games, or the goalies being poor for a few games.  It swings back and forth and over the course of a season typically settles in around 100 average.

I think that graph really helps show how a team's fortunes can sink or swim based on whether their PDO is up or down.

Let me ask you an honest question Potvin.

Are you at all concerned that this group of players won't be able to successfully execute Horachek's new defensive system?

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I'm concerned but no moreso than I would be if it were a different group of players for the simple reason that I haven't seen them for long enough under Horachek and I don't know yet.  I don't think that the Leafs just happened to assemble a roster full of players unable to play a different way but maybe they just happened to get all of those players.  I don't know yet.  With Carlyle, a direct line from his last results in Anaheim to his results in Toronto could be drawn, so I have to see the group under a different coach for awhile to really say one way or another.

 

[Redleaf]

I'm concerned but no moreso than I would be if it were a different group of players for the simple reason that I haven't seen them for long enough under Horachek and I don't know yet.  I don't think that the Leafs just happened to assemble a roster full of players unable to play a different way but maybe they just happened to get all of those players.  I don't know yet.  With Carlyle, a direct line from his last results in Anaheim to his results in Toronto could be drawn, so I have to see the group under a different coach for awhile to really say one way or another.

Yeah, I just don't know about this team anymore. Under Carlyle they showed flashes at times of a team much better than their numbers would indicate. Was that because Carlyle was letting them run wild on offense? When they switched to a more sound defensive game (albeit only 5 games now), I have yet to see much of anything to get excited about. Nor have I seen anything that would indicate they are getting accustomed to the new system. This is the most frustrated I've been in years watching this team...

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I'm concerned but no moreso than I would be if it were a different group of players for the simple reason that I haven't seen them for long enough under Horachek and I don't know yet.  I don't think that the Leafs just happened to assemble a roster full of players unable to play a different way but maybe they just happened to get all of those players.  I don't know yet.  With Carlyle, a direct line from his last results in Anaheim to his results in Toronto could be drawn, so I have to see the group under a different coach for awhile to really say one way or another.

Yeah, I just don't know about this team anymore. Under Carlyle they showed flashes at times of a team much better than their numbers would indicate. Was that because Carlyle was letting them run wild on offense? When they switched to a more sound defensive game (albeit only 5 games now), I have yet to see much of anything to get excited about. Nor have I seen anything that would indicate they are getting accustomed to the new system. This is the most frustrated I've been in years watching this team...

Other than potentially the Anaheim game, people tracking scoring chances (I'll have to try and search for it on Twitter again, I saw it a couple days ago) for NHL games showed that the scoring chances from Carlyle to Horachek haven't really gone down, they just seem to be in a funk and getting unlucky.  But it's the flipside to when they are rolling and they get breaks, which is why I find PDO helpful - seeing it in graph form go up and down gives a good visual of how it spikes and dips fairly regularly.  So the good and bad times offensively and for goaltending never tend to last too long, there's regression in each case.

 

[Courtnall]

April 13, 2013:

Maple Leafs: Gritty, hard-working squad the real deal: Cox
This Leafs team is a solid hockey club, a big, physical team with strong penalty killing, efficient netminding and enough youth to imagine this might be a group built for successful seasons beyond this one.

January 15, 2015:

Why Shanahan must blow up the Maple Leafs: Cox
Shanahan has a core group of players that isn?t good enough or strong enough or committed enough to take this team anywhere meaningful. As Sportsnet colleague Jeff Blair recently pointed out, that core group also isn?t particularly likeable to the public.

Aside from contradicting himself, Cox has it right this time.  You could have Scotty Bowman coaching this club and it wouldn't change this basic fact.

As long as we're making stuff up that we can't prove, you could have 12 Wayne Gretzky's, 6 Chris Pronger's and 2 Dominik Hasek's and Randy Carlyle couldn't coach that team to the playoffs.

What a stupid post! I guess RC has a pretend cup ring?

 

[herman]

Hopefully this graph helps further demonstrate the way SH% + SV% fluctuate throughout the season.  X-axis is GP, Y-axis is PDO (aka even-strength SV% + SH% added together).  Above 100 means high SH% + SV%, below the opposite:

Take a look at how the Leafs' line goes up, down, up, down up, up, down, down, down.

Which is why it's not really worth getting bent out of shape over not scoring for a few games, or the goalies being poor for a few games.  It swings back and forth and over the course of a season typically settles in around 100 average.

I think that graph really helps show how a team's fortunes can sink or swim based on whether their PDO is up or down.

Thanks for posting this, Potvin29. Do you have the raw data to show the averages per team per season? I think this year's Leafs (and last year's) run a slightly higher PDO on average (inflated by the extra shots they used to give up, and the higher percentage scoring chance that is the cheating rush play). And is PDO something that a team can systematically affect and skew in their favour?

I know scoring is voodoo, full of puck luck and bounce physics, so goal scoring and goal stopping is an uncontrollable event once the shots happen. But obviously some players have a knack for it. How can teams better stack the deck in their favour?

 

[Highlander]

The Leafs are adjusting to a new system, Hitchcock quoted in the Star today said 'Playing a defensive system will work but you have to make the defensive side the key, the offence will come come".  Heck we have only been at this a handful of games, played the West coast teams and to be honest, the bounces have not gone our way. At least one of the games we could have won on that swing. Just need to be patient and not run over the cliff

 

[LuncheonMeat]

The Leafs are adjusting to a new system, Hitchcock quoted in the Star today said 'Playing a defensive system will work but you have to make the defensive side the key, the offence will come come".  Heck we have only been at this a handful of games, played the West coast teams and to be honest, the bounces have not gone our way. At least one of the games we could have won on that swing. Just need to be patient and not run over the cliff

The Leafs aren't exactly dressing their strongest lineup of the season, either.  I wonder if they're getting beat again tonight if guys don't start cheating out of the zone.

 

[Tigger]

The Leafs are adjusting to a new system, Hitchcock quoted in the Star today said 'Playing a defensive system will work but you have to make the defensive side the key, the offence will come come".  Heck we have only been at this a handful of games, played the West coast teams and to be honest, the bounces have not gone our way. At least one of the games we could have won on that swing. Just need to be patient and not run over the cliff

The Leafs aren't exactly dressing their strongest lineup of the season, either.  I wonder if they're getting beat again tonight if guys don't start cheating out of the zone.

They aren't and considering they're trying to play with more effort and backside pressure, it's not surprising that there are growing pains. However, it's also nice to see the wakeup call bomb was dropped with 20 games to go before the trade deadline so the Leaf brass could get a stronger sense of who should stay and who should go. I don't really see any of this as 'Horachek' central impact assessment, rather, the first step towards a vision that could easily take 5 years or more to implement, if they're at all serious about building a contender.

Any that start to cheat might be cleared out, well, aside from Kessel and even then he might be fair game in the offseason if they could get a boatload of younger talent for him. Personally I'm looking forward to the future 'Dubas/Hunter impact on the team' thread(s).

 

[Highlander]

No trade Kessel (ever)

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

@mirtle

Leafs even strength shooting percentage under Horachek is 3.6%. @war_on_ice has them 11th in scoring chances per minute, too.

 

[ZBBM]

Horachek has been tasked with cleaning up a mess that has been building up for more than 2 years.  He also got hit by a tsunami of a tschedule with the road trip.

There's no such thing as puck luck, though.  We notice all the "bounces" when they don't go our way but tend to ignore it when the same thing happens to the other team.

 

[Redleaf]

No trade Kessel (ever)

I agree in general.

I would make two exceptions though..if the offer is unbelievably in the Leafs favour.....or if they decide to do a complete rebuild from top to bottom, which I don't think anyone believes is a real possibilty.

 

[Redleaf]

Horachek has been tasked with cleaning up a mess that has been building up for more than 2 years.  He also got hit by a tsunami of a tschedule with the road trip.

There's no such thing as puck luck, though.  We notice all the "bounces" when they don't go our way but tend to ignore it when the same thing happens to the other team.

As the losses continue to pile up, one would think that the situation would start to have a negative impact on the chances of securing a good, solid, winning coach like Babcock, for example.

Other than the money and limited options, I don't see why any coach worth their weight would want to come into the fold here and be assigned the job of re teaching this club on how to play the game properly. But big egos and money always play a role in these sorts of decisions, so I guess it's possible...

 

[Bullfrog]

Horachek has been tasked with cleaning up a mess that has been building up for more than 2 years.  He also got hit by a tsunami of a tschedule with the road trip.

There's no such thing as puck luck, though.  We notice all the "bounces" when they don't go our way but tend to ignore it when the same thing happens to the other team.

Nice.  ;D

 

[Highlander]

I believe for the very reasons Redleaf stated for Babcock not wanting to come here is one of the very reasons he will. The challenge, the risk. Whoever is assigned the job of taking whatever the new Leafs will look like (yes there will be some big trades, count on that) and with the additon of Nylander and a few of our other prospects, the new team Shanaplan offers an almost undeniable  chance for Babcock to try and win the cup here and be immortalized on the walk of fame.
Detroit is a dying city, my friends, all you have to is drive through to see for yourself.

 

[L K]

NHL Coaches winning the Stanley Cup with more than one organization:

Dick Irvin - Toronto (1932), Montreal (1944)
Scotty Bowman - Montreal (1973), Pittsburgh (1992), Detroit (1997)

It has happened but the odds are against a coach striking lightning with two separate organizations.

 

[Highlander]

Maybe we can coax Scotty out of retirement or the retirement home. 8)