How to know when to stop tanking?

[Frank E]

I had thought that the consensus was that Nylander needed to be a centre because of his insane ability with the puck on his stick, and he'd have it there more as a C.

I'd have no problem putting Kadri on the wing with Stamkos.  I had dreamed of a line of Komarov-Stamkos-Kadri.

Kadri has his long-term deal, so now use him where you need him, and for the love of all things holy, please let Kadri play with a elite-skill player this year.

 

[bustaheims]

I have more faith in Bernier than most here. While I'm not going to say he's the answer in net long term just yet, I will say that I think he can rebound next season and make the decision to trade away valuable assets, in order to upgrade the goaltending position, a hard one.

Even if Bernier does play well next season, I don't think the decision to upgrade in net will be a difficult one at all, for one pretty simple reason - Bernier's age. While he's by no means old, the shelf life of goalies who haven't established themselves as starters by his age is generally pretty short, and he is significantly older than the core group of skaters. He's likely to be on the downswing of his career when the team's core are reaching their peak. That's not a good combination. The Leafs need to find a goalie who can show they're a starting goalie in their early 20s, not one who's still struggling to do so at close to 30.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I had thought that the consensus was that Nylander needed to be a centre because of his insane ability with the puck on his stick, and he'd have it there more as a C.

I think that's a fair statement but to me the exact same thing would apply to Kadri. I'd say that Matthews, Nylander, and Kadri should all be playing centre. That's why a) if we signed Stamkos it would likely be him I would personally push to the wing and b) I now question whether Stamkos @ $9-10mil is really the most efficient use of our cap space.

 

[herman]

I had thought that the consensus was that Nylander needed to be a centre because of his insane ability with the puck on his stick, and he'd have it there more as a C.

I think that's a fair statement but to me the exact same thing would apply to Kadri. I'd say that Matthews, Nylander, and Kadri should all be playing centre. That's why a) if we signed Stamkos it would likely be him I would personally push to the wing and b) I now question whether Stamkos @ $9-10mil is really the most efficient use of our cap space.

I would agree. Those three (Matthews, Kadri, Nylander) are all handlers and see the ice so well that it makes more sense for them to dictate the play. Marner and Stamkos are of different mold (playmaking winger/scoring centre).

At $7-8M, I'd take Stamkos without a thought. At $9-10M? He'll never be able to live up to the production required for those numbers. There are other benefits to having him, namely pushing Matthews, Nylander, Kadri down the line up and overmatching other lines regularly, and the character piece of having an established hard working superstar showing everyone the ropes. But I'm still wary at that projected price range.

 

[Al14]

I have more faith in Bernier than most here. While I'm not going to say he's the answer in net long term just yet, I will say that I think he can rebound next season and make the decision to trade away valuable assets, in order to upgrade the goaltending position, a hard one.

Even if Bernier does play well next season, I don't think the decision to upgrade in net will be a difficult one at all, for one pretty simple reason - Bernier's age. While he's by no means old, the shelf life of goalies who haven't established themselves as starters by his age is generally pretty short, and he is significantly older than the core group of skaters. He's likely to be on the downswing of his career when the team's core are reaching their peak. That's not a good combination. The Leafs need to find a goalie who can show they're a starting goalie in their early 20s, not one who's still struggling to do so at close to 30.

It is widely known that NHL goalies will often take until their mid to late twenties, or even till their early thirties, to become a full time, reliable, starting goalie.  Of course, there are exceptions to this trend.

I'm not sold on Bernier, however, if he's a late bloomer, we could still see him become the starting goalie many expected.  I feel he may end up with another team before he does, unfortunately.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

It is widely known that NHL goalies will often take until their mid to late twenties, or even till their early thirties, to become a full time, reliable, starting goalie.  Of course, there are exceptions to this trend.

This really isn't true at all. A couple of weeks ago I looked at the age every starting goalie+1A/1B guy in the league today became a starting goalie at and the average age was 24 years old. Only 8 guys became starters from the ages of 26-29. The 3 best goalies in that group were Bishop, Schneider, and Miller. And you could argue that all 3 of them should have been starters prior to that. Schneider and Miller were being held back by the guys in front of them (Luongo and Hasek, respectively), while Bishop was stuck in two different 3-goalie scenarios prior to being traded to Tampa Bay.

The other guys in that 26-29 category were Hiller, Niemi, Talbot, Anderson, and Smith. Not exactly an inspiring group.

So yes, most good or above-average starting goalies in the league are established starters pretty early in their careers.

 

[bustaheims]

It is widely known that NHL goalies will often take until their mid to late twenties, or even till their early thirties, to become a full time, reliable, starting goalie.  Of course, there are exceptions to this trend.

No, it's not. It's an oft-stated assumption, but it's actually not true. I looked into it not that long ago, and, outside of rare exceptions, if a goalie hasn't established themselves as a starter by their age 27 season, it's extremely unlikely they ever will.

I mean, just look at the starting goalies around the league this season. The overwhelming majority of them were established in their position before they turned 25 - with many doing so before they turned 23 (especially if you're looking at elite goalies).

The whole "goalies don't establish themselves until their older" thing is just another old school belief that doesn't hold water when scrutinized. There may not be many that can jump into the starting role as teenagers, but, if they're going to get there, they get there relatively early in their careers.

 

[ZBBM]

It is widely known that NHL goalies will often take until their mid to late twenties, or even till their early thirties, to become a full time, reliable, starting goalie.  Of course, there are exceptions to this trend.

No, it's not. It's an oft-stated assumption, but it's actually not true. I looked into it not that long ago, and, outside of rare exceptions, if a goalie hasn't established themselves as a starter by their age 27 season, it's extremely unlikely they ever will.

I mean, just look at the starting goalies around the league this season. The overwhelming majority of them were established in their position before they turned 25 - with many doing so before they turned 23 (especially if you're looking at elite goalies).

The whole "goalies don't establish themselves until their older" thing is just another old school belief that doesn't hold water when scrutinized. There may not be many that can jump into the starting role as teenagers, but, if they're going to get there, they get there relatively early in their careers.

TIMTHOMASTIMTHOMASTOMTIMMASTOMTIMMASSMOTMASS so there.

 

[bustaheims]

No, it's not. It's an oft-stated assumption, but it's actually not true. I looked into it not that long ago, and, outside of rare exceptions, if a goalie hasn't established themselves as a starter by their age 27 season, it's extremely unlikely they ever will.

I mean, just look at the starting goalies around the league this season. The overwhelming majority of them were established in their position before they turned 25 - with many doing so before they turned 23 (especially if you're looking at elite goalies).

The whole "goalies don't establish themselves until their older" thing is just another old school belief that doesn't hold water when scrutinized. There may not be many that can jump into the starting role as teenagers, but, if they're going to get there, they get there relatively early in their careers.

TIMTHOMASTIMTHOMASTOMTIMMASTOMTIMMASSMOTMASS so there.

*cough* *cough*

 

[Highlander]

Tim Tomas is one case where the dust of angels flew up his posterior and gave him Hasek like Godly powers for a year or two, he had a certain madness of the likes of Ted Nugent's "Cat Scratch Fever" only to be brought down to earth with his Trump like mania.  Once in a while a goalie will attain greatness from the meeting of work ethic, years of hard work and a lot of luck and Timmy had it all (only to throw it away).

Sorry its our 25th Anniversary and feeling no pain at this point in the proceedings!

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

No, it's not. It's an oft-stated assumption, but it's actually not true. I looked into it not that long ago, and, outside of rare exceptions, if a goalie hasn't established themselves as a starter by their age 27 season, it's extremely unlikely they ever will.

I mean, just look at the starting goalies around the league this season. The overwhelming majority of them were established in their position before they turned 25 - with many doing so before they turned 23 (especially if you're looking at elite goalies).

The whole "goalies don't establish themselves until their older" thing is just another old school belief that doesn't hold water when scrutinized. There may not be many that can jump into the starting role as teenagers, but, if they're going to get there, they get there relatively early in their careers.

TIMTHOMASTIMTHOMASTOMTIMMASTOMTIMMASSMOTMASS so there.

*cough* *cough*

You wrote "outside of rare exceptions" but you really meant "there are no exceptions ever".

 

[bustaheims]

No, it's not. It's an oft-stated assumption, but it's actually not true. I looked into it not that long ago, and, outside of rare exceptions, if a goalie hasn't established themselves as a starter by their age 27 season, it's extremely unlikely they ever will.

I mean, just look at the starting goalies around the league this season. The overwhelming majority of them were established in their position before they turned 25 - with many doing so before they turned 23 (especially if you're looking at elite goalies).

The whole "goalies don't establish themselves until their older" thing is just another old school belief that doesn't hold water when scrutinized. There may not be many that can jump into the starting role as teenagers, but, if they're going to get there, they get there relatively early in their careers.

TIMTHOMASTIMTHOMASTOMTIMMASTOMTIMMASSMOTMASS so there.

*cough* *cough*

You wrote "outside of rare exceptions" but you really meant "there are no exceptions ever".

 

[Kin]

Also, and this may be another discussion for another place, but I wonder if Thomas is maybe less an example of how goaltenders can really bloom later on in life than he is a story about how a goalie who wasn't really given a chance made the most of one or, less charitably, that being on that particular Boston team tended to make goalies look pretty good.

 

[McGarnagle]

I don't know. TT put together a lot of years of truly impressive statistics; no doubt it didn't hurt him to have Chara in his prime and a good defensive structure, but I don't think he could have put together that term without some talent to back it up.

I'd personally refer to him as "the exception that proves the rule", when it comes to the debate of the commonality of geriatric all-star goalie finds.

 

[Kin]

I don't know. TT put together a lot of years of truly impressive statistics; no doubt it didn't hurt him to have Chara in his prime and a good defensive structure, but I don't think he could have put together that term without some talent to back it up. 

Thomas had 4 years where he was top 10 in the league in sv% but they're pretty spaced out. It's not like some switch got flicked and all of a sudden he was a consistently excellent goalie. Is 4 years a lot? I don't know, that's roughly the same number of years during his time with the Bruins where the team's other goalie put up the same or better numbers than Thomas did.

I'm not saying Thomas was completely devoid of any talent, I'm saying that a few sort of flukey good years that had a lot to do with the team's defense isn't really the  thing people are making it out to be.

 

[sneakyray]

so if I'm reading this right the leafs should be trying to pick up a good, young goalie.  Someone 25 years old or younger, in line with the core they are trying to build here.

Its nothing they haven't tried before, its just a matter of picking the right goalie.  They haven't done it yet with bernier, or toskala, or raycroft. 

I don't even want to speculate on what they might do here.  There are a lot of moving parts to this offseason and goaltending might be the biggest impact for next season, especially since its just one guy.

I just think that if there are many changes (perceived upgrades) that it might be tough to watch this team be near the bottom of the league again.  But that very well might be what happens. 

If they keep JVR, sign stammer, bring in matthews and many of the young guys or keep the carousel of young players going but they don't make any significant upgrades to d or in goal I could see them being in the bottom 5 again.

that will be hard to watch.

 

[herman]

They haven't done it yet with bernier, or toskala, or raycroft.

Outside of Toskala, I would lean more towards saying the Leafs haven't played a structure conducive to good goaltending, which has basically destroyed any goalie we've had since Belfour. Granted, we did not really play a structure conducive to good goaltending for Belfour either, but he was just that good (with that size of equipment).

 

[mr grieves]

so if I'm reading this right the leafs should be trying to pick up a good, young goalie.  Someone 25 years old or younger, in line with the core they are trying to build here.

Its nothing they haven't tried before, its just a matter of picking the right goalie.  They haven't done it yet with bernier, or toskala, or raycroft. 

And "right" changes from season to season.

A goalie who's "right" (above league average) one season has a 40% chance of being not-right (below average) the next season. And it's about the same going the other way.

How's a team plan for that?

 

[Jolly good show chaps]

How is the 2017 draft in terms of quality and depth? Still over a year away but comparable to this year's class?

 

[sneakyray]

so if I'm reading this right the leafs should be trying to pick up a good, young goalie.  Someone 25 years old or younger, in line with the core they are trying to build here.

Its nothing they haven't tried before, its just a matter of picking the right goalie.  They haven't done it yet with bernier, or toskala, or raycroft. 

And "right" changes from season to season.

A goalie who's "right" (above league average) one season has a 40% chance of being not-right (below average) the next season. And it's about the same going the other way.

How's a team plan for that?

I'd love for them to start drafting and developing their own goalies.  Reimer is the only guy they have done it with since potvin.  If they don't make any moves to move up in the draft this year they could probably pick the best goalie in the draft with pittsburgh's pick so I think that would be a start.