Hunter Will Not Return Either

[CarltonTheBear]

Hunter seemed to instantly turn this around in the drafting area and I think Dubas on the development side.

The Leafs drafting under Hunter really hasn't been anything special. Or at the very least, it's really too early to say anything about it one way or another. There have been some good picks, there have been some questionable picks. The belief that he's some sort of uber-scouting genius is really unearned at this point.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/PierreVLeBrun/status/998949898019115008

"Thanks, but we've got this covered... *Dubas strokes his MacBook lovingly*"

 

[Highlander]

While I think Mark Hunter is top notch, I also believe that the team behind him is still in place and the plan for this years picks and options are completely laid out.  I also have faith that Shanahan and Dubas will bring in an excellent replacement or advance from within that existing team. I do not know Hunters motivations but seemed to be more interested hunting talent at rinks around the world than sitting at a desk.
In any case "thank you" Mark and all the best

 

[herman]

Drafting for talent is where science (data) and art (analysis) meet.

I think the very positive differences these past few years have demonstrated compared to previous Leafs regimes is as follows:

Drafting via quantity: this is controllable -- more picks = more opportunities to pick right. Each draft year has a significant talent drop-off, usually around the 21st pick, followed by an even more significant drop-off after round 3. So it's better to take a shotgun approach if you can snag multiple picks in the same projected talent tier than to try to snipe the perfect player, or even worse, spend assets to move up but not into a different echelon (Tyler Biggs!).

Development: this is controllable -- invest skills growth into your assets to maximize their performance. A lot of hockey counting stats are largely functions of opportunity, so the more opportunity you can provide to your picks, the more likely they turn out.

These two things are Dubas initiatives. Where some GMs with scouting backgrounds probably falter is that they bet on their own capabilities (as they should) and/or play it safe just to say they got an 'NHL player' out of it (Gauthier, maybe!).

 

[Frank E]

I think we all saw this coming.

Getting the front office sorted out before free agency was the reason that I thought the GM decision needed to be made quickly, and I'm glad Shanahan got moving quickly on it...though I imagine that his mind was made up from the get go.

I hope they can add some quality people in the short term here.

 

[herman]

I will also add that Dubas has been adding to the prospect pipeline (not without Hunter and the scouts' input, mind you) outside of the draft quite frequently.

Trevor Moore, Justin Holl, Mason Marchment have all been standout player on the Marlies and we didn't get them through the draft, so it's not like Dubas has no eye for players. If anything, he has no compunctions about dipping into the lesser traveled avenues and overlooked options and outlining a development plan for them and draftees alike.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

I wonder if Dubas might dip into the Soo?s front office and hire someone alongside another more experienced guy like Ron Francis. 

 

[Kin]

So what seems lost in all of this "Will the Leafs hire X to replace Y" stuff is that there doesn't really seem to be a specific constant of how you'd want a front office set up. I think we can all agree you want a smart GM who is ultimately making your trade calls and deciding on draft picks. But then, below them, what roles are really necessary to be filled? My guess is you'd ideally want five guys in sort of chief deputy roles? Effectively department heads covering:

Amateur Scouting
Pro Scouting
Analytics
Cap Management
Minor League Development(Marlies GM)

My guess is that Dubas, under Lamoriello, was effectively doing jobs #3 and 5 up there while getting a crash course in the rest of it.

Meanwhile, they still have Pridham for #4 and they still have most of their scouting staff. Darryl Metcalf is listed as the director of their analytics department and I'm guessing he'd have a good working relationship with Dubas.

So is the discussion now effectively A) Do they need to bring in someone new for jobs #1 and #2 or can they promote form within and B) Who is going to run the Marlies?  Or am I missing another area of work that would require an additional AGM?

 

[Zee]

So what seems lost in all of this "Will the Leafs hire X to replace Y" stuff is that there doesn't really seem to be a specific constant of how you'd want a front office set up. I think we can all agree you want a smart GM who is ultimately making your trade calls and deciding on draft picks. But then, below them, what roles are really necessary to be filled? My guess is you'd ideally want five guys in sort of chief deputy roles? Effectively department heads covering:

Amateur Scouting
Pro Scouting
Analytics
Cap Management
Minor League Development(Marlies GM)

My guess is that Dubas, under Lamoriello, was effectively doing jobs #3 and 5 up there while getting a crash course in the rest of it.

Meanwhile, they still have Pridham for #4 and they still have most of their scouting staff. Darryl Metcalf is listed as the director of their analytics department and I'm guessing he'd have a good working relationship with Dubas.

So is the discussion now effectively A) Do they need to bring in someone new for jobs #1 and #2 or can they promote form within and B) Who is going to run the Marlies?  Or am I missing another area of work that would require an additional AGM?

Now that the other 2 are out, I'm sure clarity will come in the next little while.  This will be the Dubas show, he'll get to call his first official press conference as Leafs GM to announce what he's doing with the front office.  I can already see a tear of joy running down Shanahan's face..."there's my big boy all grown up"

 

[Kin]

Now that the other 2 are out, I'm sure clarity will come in the next little while.  This will be the Dubas show, he'll get to call his first official press conference as Leafs GM to announce what he's doing with the front office.  I can already see a tear of joy running down Shanahan's face..."there's my big boy all grown up"

My question there isn't so much about the specifics of the Leafs situation as it is a sort of general thinking about what would be the ideal structure  for a front office, now that there's clarity at the top.

 

[Zee]

Now that the other 2 are out, I'm sure clarity will come in the next little while.  This will be the Dubas show, he'll get to call his first official press conference as Leafs GM to announce what he's doing with the front office.  I can already see a tear of joy running down Shanahan's face..."there's my big boy all grown up"

My question there isn't so much about the specifics of the Leafs situation as it is a sort of general thinking about what would be the ideal structure  for a front office, now that there's clarity at the top.

That I don't know.  I'm sure there are multiple ways to run your organization and no one approach is 100% the right way to go.  Maybe one guy holds multiple titles as you've laid out, maybe they hire a guy for each role?  Interesting times in Leafs land that's for sure.  I'm excited to see how Dubas handles things now that he's the GM and doesn't have Lou or Hunter peering over his shoulder.

 

[herman]

Amateur Scouting
Pro Scouting
Analytics
Cap Management
Minor League Development(Marlies GM)

These might be adjunct to the Minor League Development in your list, but I think they deserve their own space as they reach across all tiers:
Sports Science (medical, physical, nutritional, mental well-being and optimization), currently overseen by Jeremy Bettle
Player Development (Scott Pellerin, Stephan Robidas, Jack Han + consultants Darryl Belfry, Barb Underhill, Mike Ellis)

Depending on the delineation between GM and President, there's also Hockey Ops (game logistics, travel, equipment, etc.), Marketing (social and blog/print media relations, community outreach).

 

[herman]

I think Pridham and Metcalf (or whichever R&D guy should be the corporate interface) should get bumped to Director or AGM level. One or two more for managing either the Dev/Marlies dept or the Scouting dept depending on which one Dubas wants to continue to oversee personally if any.

President: Shanahan
GM: Dubas
AGM/Director: Cap Management
AGM/Director: Research & Development
AGM/Director: Amateur & Pro Scouting
AGM/Director: Player Development/Marlies GM
Director: Sports Science

Cap and R&D could be folded into a single portfolio as they're both number crunching in methodology and efficiency finding in purpose. Titles between AGM/director would really depend on the level the person coming in should be paid at and their growth curve.

 

[Kin]

These might be adjunct to the Minor League Development in your list, but I think they deserve their own space as they reach across all tiers:
Sports Science (medical, physical, nutritional, mental well-being and optimization), currently overseen by Jeremy Bettle
Player Development (Scott Pellerin, Stephan Robidas, Jack Han + consultants Darryl Belfry, Barb Underhill, Mike Ellis)

Depending on the delineation between GM and President, there's also Hockey Ops (game logistics, travel, equipment, etc.), Marketing (social and blog/print media relations, community outreach).

Fair enough. They do have guys listed, as you mention, as directors of Player Development and Team Operations and the rest seems outside of the hockey ops side of things.

I guess I'm just wondering how many vacancies the Leafs actually have and how many guys would just be "another voice in the room can't hurt" sort of hires.

 

[herman]

I guess I'm just wondering how many vacancies the Leafs actually have and how many guys would just be "another voice in the room can't hurt" sort of hires.

A Marlies/ECHL overseer GM is probably the bare essential hire in my mind, given how deep Dubas wants our prospect pipeline to go and the day-to-day grind of managing a complete team. Amateur/Pro Scouting could conceivably be funneled into and distilled by the Cap/R&D team for executive review (Shanahan, Dubas, Babcock, Marlies GM) as they're essentially data collectors, and can be steered accordingly by data. Complementing the R&D/scouting guys with (even) more video resources (like Batman level) would help get the message across to Babcock.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/JeffVeillette/status/999322216620871680

 

[Zee]

https://twitter.com/JeffVeillette/status/999322216620871680

That hilarious.  I love how he pointed out that Simmons trashed the trading down in the 2015 draft that got them Dermott, because Hunter wanted Konecny, and it was all Dubas's fault.  Now that Dermott has proven to be really good, it was a joint Dubas/Hunter decision.  Simmons is such a hack.

 

[ZBBM]

Hunter seemed to instantly turn this around in the drafting area and I think Dubas on the development side.

The Leafs drafting under Hunter really hasn't been anything special. Or at the very least, it's really too early to say anything about it one way or another. There have been some good picks, there have been some questionable picks. The belief that he's some sort of uber-scouting genius is really unearned at this point.

Hmmm.  This kind of smacks of revisionism to me.  Wasn't Hunter regarded as one of the best talent scouts in the biz?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Hmmm.  This kind of smacks of revisionism to me.  Wasn't Hunter regarded as one of the best talent scouts in the biz?

What part is "revisionism"? You're more than welcome to look back at my posts from the 2016 draft and find that I critiqued Hunter about them just as much as I am now. Fact is at this point in time, looking at the Leafs drafts while Hunter was in charge, they don't stand out as being anywhere even close to elite.

I'm not bringing Hunter's work as a London Knight into this, as that can be construed a number of different ways (yes he built London into a powerhouse, but they also ended up having a crazy advantage over every other OHL team that helped them). His draft selections with the Leafs are average at best at this moment.

 

[Kin]

Hmmm.  This kind of smacks of revisionism to me.  Wasn't Hunter regarded as one of the best talent scouts in the biz?

Not to point to my sig again but reputations like that are funny things. Without any real experience in amateur scouting in a NHL sense he'd built that reputation and its payoff has been, as CTB points out, kind of uneven.