Is it panic time yet?

[Zee]

Big scary Boston 13-10-1 since December 1st
Awful pathetic Toronto 11-8-2 since December 1st

All teams go through ebbs and flows (except Tampa so far).

That's true but 2 of those Boston wins are against the Leafs in that time. It doesn't matter if they struggle against teams if they routinely beat us cause that's who they'll most likely face in the playoffs

 

[Zee]

Hey Zee, I am in the US for the winter, Congress just passed a law to accept CBD as an acceptable, legal product, completely non THC.  As I suffer from severe anxiety I bought a bottle which is administered under the tongue.  After two days I am feeling an almost Zen like calm, my muscle pain is gone etc.
As it is now completely legal in Canada, I can highly recommend a non high, non pharmaceutical alternative to your Leaf stress.  Sorry but had to share this, as I am a compulsive worrier. Not about the Leafs but things that matter.  Wish I had found this decades ago.

Glad to hear it's working for you, health is the most important thing. As for the Leafs I've long past the stage of the fortunes of the team stressing me out, I mean I'm a fan and I want them to win, but I'm not gonna lose sleep over it if they don't. Got a wife and 3 kids that bring me joy in life, what else matters?

Zee that is perspective, it took me most of my life to stop being a total selfish as_hole, for the last several years it really came to me, my family is the most important part of my life, not work. I am probably still an as_hole but a nicer one. And now a calmer one....

Gotten too much perspective the last few years in seeing friends and family members pass away. You realize we're only here for a short time so make the best of it and try to spread joy to your loved ones.  Not to go into too much detail but recently a friend is going through a tough time as her teenage son is battling cancer, it's all we can do to help out the family and do what we can, but it's not enough. Anyway, hockey is just a pastime, enjoy it for what it is.

 

[Highlander]

sorry to hear about your friend's child, not fair in the young years to battle this. I reached out to a Pharmacist friend of mine to ask him about the CBD.  His associate is a Doctor (whom I have also known for 25 years), he has going deep into this as a treatment for many things but swears it is curing cancer from his treatments over the past two years. I only tell this for what it is worth in the telling to me.  And these are Dutchmen and Dutchmen are pretty serious fellows.
If anyone wants to send me a private text about this, I would be glad to assist in information.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Anyway, hockey is just a pastime, enjoy it for what it is.

Hammer meet nail...

 

[CatScratchFever]

Panic? No.

Admit the team isn't that good and isn't ready to challenge for a Cup? Yes.

Halfway into the season you want to write them off? Makes sense.

I never thought the Leafs were good enough to win a Cup this year, so I suppose you could say I wrote them off before the season even started. I'm just not sure what you mean by "write them off" at this point.

The way I read it is the team goes into a slump and we shouldn't count them as contenders. I don't really agree with that. If this is an 18 wheeler situation like under Burke, fine. But I don't think we can really cross the bridge of whether or not they're contenders until closer to the end of the regular season.

Sure that's fine. But I'm not basing my opinion on a slump. This slump is just symptomatic of a bigger issue with the team which simply boils down to they are not ready yet.

I would never have labeled them a contender at the start of the season or anywhere in between then and now. So no, I'm not writing them off, or discounting the possibility of them magicking their way through the playoffs. I'm just not banking on it, and as I see it that's what it's going to take for them to advance this year.

The future is bright, it's just not now.

Totally agree. It usually takes a few years of working its way ever deeper into the playoffs for a team to win it all (certain exceptions notwithstanding). The Leafs have yet to make it to the second round, so all this handwringing is totally premature IMHO. Patience. We are at least a couple years and a top tier d-man away from a long playoff run.

 

[Zee]

Panic? No.

Admit the team isn't that good and isn't ready to challenge for a Cup? Yes.

Halfway into the season you want to write them off? Makes sense.

I never thought the Leafs were good enough to win a Cup this year, so I suppose you could say I wrote them off before the season even started. I'm just not sure what you mean by "write them off" at this point.

The way I read it is the team goes into a slump and we shouldn't count them as contenders. I don't really agree with that. If this is an 18 wheeler situation like under Burke, fine. But I don't think we can really cross the bridge of whether or not they're contenders until closer to the end of the regular season.

Sure that's fine. But I'm not basing my opinion on a slump. This slump is just symptomatic of a bigger issue with the team which simply boils down to they are not ready yet.

I would never have labeled them a contender at the start of the season or anywhere in between then and now. So no, I'm not writing them off, or discounting the possibility of them magicking their way through the playoffs. I'm just not banking on it, and as I see it that's what it's going to take for them to advance this year.

The future is bright, it's just not now.

Totally agree. It usually takes a few years of working its way ever deeper into the playoffs for a team to win it all (certain exceptions notwithstanding). The Leafs have yet to make it to the second round, so all this handwringing is totally premature IMHO. Patience. We are at least a couple years and a top tier d-man away from a long playoff run.

Sure but it sounds like cold comfort when a team of cast offs like Vegas makes the final off the hop

 

[Bates]

Panic? No.

Admit the team isn't that good and isn't ready to challenge for a Cup? Yes.

Halfway into the season you want to write them off? Makes sense.

I never thought the Leafs were good enough to win a Cup this year, so I suppose you could say I wrote them off before the season even started. I'm just not sure what you mean by "write them off" at this point.

The way I read it is the team goes into a slump and we shouldn't count them as contenders. I don't really agree with that. If this is an 18 wheeler situation like under Burke, fine. But I don't think we can really cross the bridge of whether or not they're contenders until closer to the end of the regular season.

Sure that's fine. But I'm not basing my opinion on a slump. This slump is just symptomatic of a bigger issue with the team which simply boils down to they are not ready yet.

I would never have labeled them a contender at the start of the season or anywhere in between then and now. So no, I'm not writing them off, or discounting the possibility of them magicking their way through the playoffs. I'm just not banking on it, and as I see it that's what it's going to take for them to advance this year.

The future is bright, it's just not now.

Totally agree. It usually takes a few years of working its way ever deeper into the playoffs for a team to win it all (certain exceptions notwithstanding). The Leafs have yet to make it to the second round, so all this handwringing is totally premature IMHO. Patience. We are at least a couple years and a top tier d-man away from a long playoff run.

Sure but it sounds like cold comfort when a team of cast offs like Vegas makes the final off the hop

Exhibit A in the coaching makes a difference presentation, Islanders are exhibit B. Doubt many would trade our roster for either yet both rolling better.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Noticed something funny looking at last years record: from December 29th 2017 to January 18th 2018 the Leafs went 2-3-4, or had 2 wins and 7 losses. This season from December 29th 2018 to January 20th 2018 the Leafs went 3-7.

Anyway last season the Leafs pretty much immediately turned things around after that stretch and went 24-9-2 to finish the season.

 

[Bender]

Noticed something funny looking at last years record: from December 29th 2017 to January 18th 2018 the Leafs went 2-3-4, or had 2 wins and 7 losses. This season from December 29th 2018 to January 20th 2018 the Leafs went 3-7.

Anyway last season the Leafs pretty much immediately turned things around after that stretch and went 24-9-2 to finish the season.

I'd like to see some analysis on this. You kind of wonder why the coaching staff isn't adjusting or trying different plays and lines/pairings.

 

[herman]

Noticed something funny looking at last years record: from December 29th 2017 to January 18th 2018 the Leafs went 2-3-4, or had 2 wins and 7 losses. This season from December 29th 2018 to January 20th 2018 the Leafs went 3-7.

Anyway last season the Leafs pretty much immediately turned things around after that stretch and went 24-9-2 to finish the season.

MLHS touched on this in their game review.

The slight difference this time around is that there aren?t any reinforcements of the Kapanen/Johnsson caliber being added (subtracting Komarov/Martin which is a substantial differential).

I?d argue that Matthews and Nylander regressing to their more regular shooting percentages will do the trick, but that?s not exactly something they can actively control.

Matthews fired 10 shot attempts, landing 3 on net while the vast majority of his attempts were from pretty dangerous spots, so that?s still a lot of blocks/misses.

What the Leafs are lacking during this slump are second/third/fourth effort attempts (dirty goals) because the skilled guys are trying to finesse it into the net post and in/top cheddar, which is a no-rebound, lost possession attempt.

The fix for what ails the team as a whole is mechanically easy, as it's just timing their collective will to win the loose puck plays. For the most part, they've been doing it, but getting burned a couple of those times they didn't (Kadri, Marner, Rielly sticks lifted from behind along the boards because they were feeling too 'safe'), and not getting shots bouncing in as easily as before leads to the results we've been seeing.

 

[herman]

What the Leafs are lacking during this slump are second/third/fourth effort attempts (dirty goals) because the skilled guys are trying to finesse it into the net post and in/top cheddar, which is a no-rebound, lost possession attempt.

Further to this point, this is what they've deviated from with their Power Play scheme this year.

It used to be a nigh unstoppable funnel of chances (Marner-Kadri-JvR) where the puck changed directions 2-3 times before finding the net.

The Leafs eschew direct point shots for goals (which I agree wholeheartedly with), but that doesn't mean they should never shoot from the point for some Plinko action. I really liked Marincin's backboard pass last night to try to get Auston a more open look and it nearly paid off. Blocks are designed to take away the lane from puck to net, so put the puck off lane.

 

[L K]

Excluding an empty net goal the Leafs are shooting 8.3% over this stretch, on top of having a higher rate of blocked shots.  Their shooting percentage as a team last year was 10.8%.  That would account for an additional 7 goals over this stretch since the start of January.

 

[L K]

What the Leafs are lacking during this slump are second/third/fourth effort attempts (dirty goals) because the skilled guys are trying to finesse it into the net post and in/top cheddar, which is a no-rebound, lost possession attempt.

Further to this point, this is what they've deviated from with their Power Play scheme this year.

It used to be a nigh unstoppable funnel of chances (Marner-Kadri-JvR) where the puck changed directions 2-3 times before finding the net.

The Leafs eschew direct point shots for goals (which I agree wholeheartedly with), but that doesn't mean they should never shoot from the point for some Plinko action. I really liked Marincin's backboard pass last night to try to get Auston a more open look and it nearly paid off. Blocks are designed to take away the lane from puck to net, so put the puck off lane.

The PP has become way too predictable.  Doing the same play over and over again.  When you have combinations of Kadri/Tavares/Marner/Matthews/Nylander/Kapanen/Rielly you really shouldn't be trying to force the same cross ice snap shot from the circle play.  A PP with creative players is playing very predictably.  Who is the assistant in charge of the PP this year?

 

[Arn]

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Noticed something funny looking at last years record: from December 29th 2017 to January 18th 2018 the Leafs went 2-3-4, or had 2 wins and 7 losses. This season from December 29th 2018 to January 20th 2018 the Leafs went 3-7.

Anyway last season the Leafs pretty much immediately turned things around after that stretch and went 24-9-2 to finish the season.

I'd like to see some analysis on this. You kind of wonder why the coaching staff isn't adjusting or trying different plays and lines/pairings.

Well it's not exactly a secret that Babcock can be a pretty stubborn coach. Sometimes it works out (hey, don't really see anybody complaining about Hyman much anymore), and sometimes it doesn't work out (see: Ron Hainsey).

With that said, Babcock did do a number of things that positively effected the Leafs after that 17/18 stretch. Herman mentioned a couple already: he started to limit Komarov's minutes and he started playing Kapanen over Martin (Johnsson came later in the season). The Marleau-Kadri-Marner line was also put together on the 24th of January, so pretty much right when the Leafs started to win games again. Those changes pretty much rejuvenated the team.

Can Babcock do something similar this season? Marleau might be this years Komarov. He's 4th among forwards on the team in 5-on-5 ice-time, and that's probably too high for him. It might be time to try and cut his minutes back a little bit.

Can Moore be this years Kapanen? I don't think he has the same upside at all but last season Kapanen really only played a 4th line role and he completely changed it's impact. Moore had the same effect in his short time here. It sounds like he'll be coming up with Johnsson's injury. Hopefully it'll be a 1-way trip this time.

Can putting Kadri and Marner together have the same effect his season that it did last season? I'd give it a shot. We all know how great Marner and Tavares are together, but maybe it's time to split them up to get the rest of the team going. Last season Kadri has 2 points in 20 games pre-Marner, and 30 points in 33 games post-Marner. This season he's not in quite that much of a rut, but if we could get Kadri going in the 2nd half like he did in last seasons 2nd half that'd be huge. Maybe try running Kadri-Marner, Tavares-Nylander, Matthews-Kapanen.

But really though at the end of the day the players do just have to play better.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Who is the assistant in charge of the PP this year?

It's still Jim Hiller. Who, prior to this season, in his four years as an assistant coach in the NHL has had the 2nd ranked PP three times (once in Detroit, twice with the Leafs).

 

[L K]

Noticed something funny looking at last years record: from December 29th 2017 to January 18th 2018 the Leafs went 2-3-4, or had 2 wins and 7 losses. This season from December 29th 2018 to January 20th 2018 the Leafs went 3-7.

Anyway last season the Leafs pretty much immediately turned things around after that stretch and went 24-9-2 to finish the season.

I'd like to see some analysis on this. You kind of wonder why the coaching staff isn't adjusting or trying different plays and lines/pairings.

Well it's not exactly a secret that Babcock can be a pretty stubborn coach. Sometimes it works out (hey, don't really see anybody complaining about Hyman much anymore), and sometimes it doesn't work out (see: Ron Hainsey).

With that said, Babcock did do a number of things that positively effected the Leafs after that 17/18 stretch. Herman mentioned a couple already: he started to limit Komarov's minutes and he started playing Kapanen over Martin (Johnsson came later in the season). The Marleau-Kadri-Marner line was also put together on the 24th of January, so pretty much right when the Leafs started to win games again. Those changes pretty much rejuvenated the team.

Can Babcock do something similar this season? Marleau might be this years Komarov. He's 4th among forwards on the team in 5-on-5 ice-time, and that's probably too high for him. It might be time to try and cut his minutes back a little bit.

Can Moore be this years Kapanen? I don't think he has the same upside at all but last season Kapanen really only played a 4th line role and he completely changed it's impact. Moore had the same effect in his short time here. It sounds like he'll be coming up with Johnsson's injury. Hopefully it'll be a 1-way trip this time.

Can putting Kadri and Marner together have the same effect his season that it did last season? I'd give it a shot. We all know how great Marner and Tavares are together, but maybe it's time to split them up to get the rest of the team going. Last season Kadri has 2 points in 20 games pre-Marner, and 30 points in 33 games post-Marner. This season he's not in quite that much of a rut, but if we could get Kadri going in the 2nd half like he did in last seasons 2nd half that'd be huge. Maybe try running Kadri-Marner, Tavares-Nylander, Matthews-Kapanen.

But really though at the end of the day the players do just have to play better.

Yeah Tavares-Nylander might not be a bad thing to try.  Nylander isn't the playmaker that Marner is but he's good. 
Trying to mix things up certainly won't hurt.  I'd also like to see them try and creep up the minutes on Tavares/Matthews.  Stop having games where Matthews plays 16 minutes.  Slump aside there really isn't a great reason for him to be playing so few minutes.

Double shift him at times to get him on a line with Marner or Tavares every once and a while.  It would cut down on Marleau's minutes.

 

[L K]

Who is the assistant in charge of the PP this year?

It's still Jim Hiller. Who, prior to this season, in his four years as an assistant coach in the NHL has had the 2nd ranked PP three times (once in Detroit, twice with the Leafs).

Good stuff.  I'm certainly not calling for him to be removed, just hoping they can adjust.  Mind you it's sometimes hard to do that when you don't get opportunities to try and score.  I'm not sure what this team needs to do to try and draw more penalties.  It felt like earlier in the year things weren't being called because the PP was "too good".  Now it is rather ordinary but the opportunities still aren't there.

 

[herman]

I'd also like to see them try and creep up the minutes on Tavares/Matthews.  Stop having games where Matthews plays 16 minutes.  Slump aside there really isn't a great reason for him to be playing so few minutes.

Double shift him at times to get him on a line with Marner or Tavares every once and a while.  It would cut down on Marleau's minutes.

I wouldn't mind seeing this either; I would add that Matthews was coming off a 1-month stint on the IR and that first game or two of haha-goals-woohoo notwithstanding, he needed time to get his legs back too and it's just getting there now.

I've noticed Nylander's been getting the net-front gig on a lot of OZ set ups lately, and that's probably not the optimal solution there to have their best puck handler just waiting to have shots fired in his general direction. What worked a lot the past two seasons was Nylander played high-guy, Hyman played low, and Matthews could flex between crash-bang or catch-and-release between the circles.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Another easy change that could spark some results:

https://twitter.com/JeffVeillette/status/1087153903781769218

I hope him and Lindholm are both gone next season. Both misses there.