bustaheims
Well-known member
Nik the Trik said:
Sure, but if he was a clear defensive upgrade, there'd be more consensus among the defensive metrics. To me, that says the defensive upgrade he represents in comparison to Reyes is questionable.
Jays acquire Troy Tulowitzki
- Thread starter Captain Canuck
- Start date
Sure, but if he was a clear defensive upgrade, there'd be more consensus among the defensive metrics. To me, that says the defensive upgrade he represents in comparison to Reyes is questionable.
Kin
Active member
bustaheims said:
Except I think even the most fervent advocate of defensive metrics will tell you that one year samples are pretty unreliable when it comes to getting a clear picture on a player's overall defense and Tulowitzki's career defensive numbers are significantly better than Reyes'.
The years where Tulowitzki was winning gold gloves his defense graded out as being pretty terrific and on a level that Reyes never really reached. So the evidence is pretty good for him being a substantial defensive upgrade.
bustaheims
Well-known member
Nik the Trik said:
He may have been, but I feel like injuries have had an impact on his range. His hip and groin have taken a lot of damage over the past few years.
Kin
Active member
bustaheims said:
Range is kind of a tricky concept defensively though. There's Robbie Alomar kind of range where he could run across the diamond and make the play and there's Cal Ripken range where because of his arm he could play deeper than most SS and make plays that other guys would have to dive for look easy. Alomar showed upon highlight reels, Ripken easily graded out as being the superior defensive player.
Tulowitzki's always been more of a Ripken-type so issues regarding footspeed don't particularly concern me and his defense registered as so good just a year ago that I'm fairly confident he can more or less still be that player.
GhostofPotvin29
New member
No biggie, only Devon Travis and Jose Bautista have left tonight's game with injuries.
Seriously, it's messed up the stuff that happens to this team. They never have a season where things just fall into place or are fortunate.
Seriously, it's messed up the stuff that happens to this team. They never have a season where things just fall into place or are fortunate.
Kin
Active member
I don't know if I'd say it's a cop-out but I really don't think the only team that plays on turf, a team that we hear multiple guys every year say they don't want to go because of the effect turf has on a body, can really look skyward when nagging mid-season injuries pile up.
Stroman was bad luck, guys getting little tweaks as the season wears on can be easily hung on the team dragging their feet on getting a grass field down.
Stroman was bad luck, guys getting little tweaks as the season wears on can be easily hung on the team dragging their feet on getting a grass field down.
GhostofPotvin29
New member
Nik the Trik said:
Doesn't Tampa play on turf too? I'm sure there's some differences to it but until recently I thought they were one of the consistently healthiest teams.
But of their significant injuries this season - Stroman, Saunders, Reyes, Travis, Bautista, it would be hard to really say any are turf related at all: 2 happened in ST, Travis had a ball hop into his collarbone in Cleveland then reaggravated it swinging, Reyes hurt himself on a check swing in Baltimore, Bautista hurt himself trying to make a crazy outfield throw, etc.
Did the early 90s Jays teams chronically have these issues?
Kin
Active member
Potvin29 said:
If you listen to players describe it, the effects of playing on turf are gradual and add to the load of wear and tear the body goes through over the course of a season.
Like I said, Stroman is bad luck but all teams have bad luck like that. Pulls and strains and the like are part of the cumulative effect of the playing surface.
Andy007
Well-known member
You know what else doesn't help? The team making players play through significant injury. Like having Reyes play a full week with a freaking broken rib. Both EE and Bautista have had serious injuries this year without missing much more than a few days out of the lineup. Ultimately these players end up with, shocker, further injury down the road.
L K
Well-known member
Frank E said:
Pretty much what everyone has said. We need pitching. AA said we needed pitching at the end of the season last year. He still hasn't added that pitching. 10-22 in 1-run games. 4-36 in games where the offense scores 3 or fewer runs. The offense can't score 10 runs every game and when they don't the pitching can't hold anything.
While adding a starter is a guy who only performs once every 5 games, the Jays can't keep throwing out Estrada/Hutchinson/Doubront who go 3 innings and overtax an already mediocre bullpen. We are running with Dickey, Buehrle and a little bit of Estrada right now to hold the team up. AA better find a way to add a starter or two or this season is done.
GhostofPotvin29
New member
Frank E said:
And while I don't think the pitching is very good, I think it's also been blown a little out of proportion and they've also got unlucky to some degree.
I mean, look at this:
Just like the Orioles a couple years ago had a crazy good record in 1-run games, I think it's basically the opposite happening to the Blue Jays right now. A blog looked into the Orioles that season, who went 29-9 in 1-run games and concluded:
If you want to read whole thing: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/3/15/4105922/one-run-game-performance-unsustainable-orioles
Here's another from the same site looking at whether a great bullpen can change that:
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/8/22/6055447/the-effect-of-a-good-bullpen-in-one-run-games
Jays expected W-L Pythagorean record right now is 60-41. Instead they are 50-51. Toronto sports!
L K
Well-known member
But most of this gets broken down to...the pitching isn't good so their offensive production is being marginalized. Pitching in high leverage situations our pitchers struggle. Pitching with a 10-run lead they do well. It really doesn't matter what the Jays record COULD be. The reality is that unless the offense becames consistent and scores 5+ runs every game instead of having games where they score 10 runs and then 1-4 runs at other times OR the pitching isn't able to hold teams to 3 or fewer runs on a more consistent basis, the team is going to lose more games than they win. It's not new for this organization. They have been below average in 1-run game performance for years. One-off years of statistical variance, sure, that's bad luck. When it's an annual problem it is a problem with the pieces you put out on the field.
Andy007
Well-known member
Frank E said:
Maybe somebody has to say it? The pitching staff is awful and, as LK pointed out, AA has mentioned this repeatedly for the past two years and hasn't done anything to rectify it. Bautista signed away his entire prime years to stay with Toronto on a hugely team-friendly deal and he hasn't been close to playing one playoff game. Why can't he voice his concerns?
Andy007
Well-known member
L K said:
And this is it exactly.
And that's also why you can't just simply look at superficial stats. Wow, they have a great run-differential. That's almost meaningless. It's all about context. The bullpen is responsible for the 2nd most blown saves in all of baseball and they also have the least amount of saves in all of baseball. That's not being unlucky, that's having a raw bullpen that can only pitch well when the game isn't on the line.
The contract extension Bautista received was a bit of gamble at the time for the Blue Jays. Bautista's numbers were off the charts compared to the rest of the career and no one knew if he could continue to put up similar numbers. Obviously, it has worked out for the Jays.Andy007 said:
I personally think he talks to much, about the team, about the umpires, and what he thinks the team needs. He can talk but do it in the clubhouse not to the media. I would be discouraged as a depth/fringe pitcher by his comments. I honestly am not convinced he's a good teammate. There has always seemed to be problems in the clubhouse and he is supposed to be the leader. His numbers are unreal but I wish her would tone down all the talk.