JVR

[slapshot]

Nothing like 5 goals in a couple of games to ramp up the talk.

Here's my take on JVR.

If I were the Leafs, I'd offer $6 million for five years, take it or leave it.

Can they afford it? Yes.  For about $32 million, they can lock up all their key forwards including JVR and Nylander, by letting Bozak, Komarov go and trading Martin back to the Island. Throw in another $5 million for bonus for Matthews and Marner. Aaltonen will likely fill one of the left over forward spots in expensively. Matthews missing time helps us with the Nylander contract as it no doubt affects his points total. Highly doubtful Nylander's contract would eclipse Jets Ehlers, though he may match it at $6 million.

The would still leave quite a bit of cash left over, if you budgeted $40-45 million for forwards out of $80 million cap. Another $25-30 million will cover the d-men, and you could still have $10 million left over for goaltending and spare change.

Lupul, Gleason and Cowen all come off the books after this year, so that's about $7 million in savings.

The Leafs can let Hainsey walk after next year and buyout the final year of Marleau's contract if they need to. Resigning Matthews and Marner will got done, you can be sure of that.

It would be nice to keep JVR, but not over pay for him. He's kind of one dimensional - though you can't get much better a dimension that scoring.

If I were the Leafs I would also insist on a limited no trade clause, 10 team kind of thing, just to be on the safe side.

We'll see if he really loves Toronto and takes a hometown discount to be a part of history when it comes. Or if the Leafs mgmt love him enough to make him a decent enough but not outrageous offer to stay. I highly doubt they'd do that. I think $30 million over five years is fair for both sides.

 

[Kin]

We'll see if he really loves Toronto and takes a hometown discount to be a part of history when it comes.

JVR's hometown is in New Jersey and his love for the city/his teammates isn't necessarily linked to his willingness to take a below market deal to stay here.

 

[AvroArrow]

Let him walk. I'd rather have a 20/20 two way player than a 30/30 guy who's only useful in 1 zone.

 

[hockeyfan1]

Someone posed a question about JVR...

[tweet]974477007131045888[/tweet]

I don't foresee JVR returning to the Leafs.  Andreas Johnsson may be a worthy JVR replacement in this case. 

 

[slapshot]

We'll see if he really loves Toronto and takes a hometown discount to be a part of history when it comes.

JVR's hometown is in New Jersey and his love for the city/his teammates isn't necessarily linked to his willingness to take a below market deal to stay here.

Seriously, hometown discount is just a turn of a phrase. Every Leaf fan know he's an American. Not saying it is linked, just saying some guys do to less to stay with team and place they like, especially if they have a shot a winning it all. Stamkos for one could have gotten more on the open market. We'll see what Tavares does.

 

[herman]

https://theathletic.com/282496/2018/03/21/lebrun-james-van-riemsdyks-recent-play-will-make-him-one-of-the-most-sought-after-ufas-this-summer/

How does the marketplace view him?

?From 15 feet in, he?s lethal,? an executive from another Eastern Conference team told The Athletic. ?And he can score in many ways. He?s got great hands, he can shoot, he can deke, he?s creative, he?s not just a one-trick pony. He?s a very good player. You look at the premium on goals now, just how hard it is to score ? he?ll be in serious demand.

?And let?s say you step up and give him the seven years, he?ll still be just 35 at the end of that,? added the exec. ?He won?t be 41 or 42 like some of these guys who sign long-term deals. You do worry about the non-prolific skaters grinding to a halt when they turn 30-plus, but he?s not quite that heavy. He?s more of an ugly skater than a poor skater, in my mind.??

[LeBrun] got a more moderate view from another Eastern Conference hockey exec via text message.

?Big, strong 30-ish goal scorer. Reliable to score those goals regardless of the environment around him. But a support guy. Isn't gonna generate the offence alone and doesn't really have another weapon. (He?s) actually unique. Because it's hard to be a consistent goal scorer at that level without other dimensions.??

Just a reminder, more for myself than anything else, once it hits July 1st, the Leafs can only max out at a 7 yr contract with JvR as he will be a UFA; anytime until then we get to go 8 years if we want to (and are crazy enough to).

He'll be in demand for sure.

 

[Kin]

Nothing's been better than the two different JVR columns this last month:

1. See, you people who wanted to trade JVR are dopes!
2. Holy smokes, JVR is really valuable!

 

[Coco-puffs]

Nothing's been better than the two different JVR columns this last month:

1. See, you people who wanted to trade JVR are dopes!
2. Holy smokes, JVR is really valuable!

For those who cared more about getting assets in return for him, without a doubt the contrast is head-scratching. 

For those who think subtracting from your lineup is not a smart thing when you are a Top 6 team in the NHL its pretty much on message- especially when it becomes clearer that there is no way in hell someone could come in and fill his shoes.  Even if they improve things on the defensive side they aren't doing enough to make up for it on offense.

 

[Kin]

For those who think subtracting from your lineup is not a smart thing when you are a Top 6 team in the NHL its pretty much on message-

I don't really care what someone's particular views were on trading JVR, the lack of acknowledgement that sometimes it's good to trade people because they're valuable is the issue.

Specifically with JVR, nobody was saying they should trade him because he was bad.

 

[Coco-puffs]

For those who think subtracting from your lineup is not a smart thing when you are a Top 6 team in the NHL its pretty much on message-

I don't really care what someone's particular views were on trading JVR, the lack of acknowledgement that sometimes it's good to trade people because they're valuable is the issue.

Specifically with JVR, nobody was saying they should trade him because he was bad.

I can't speak for everyone who was in the keep JvR camp- but I do agree that sometimes it's good to trade people because they are valuable.  Where we seem to disagree, is where that sometimes is. 

 

[Kin]

I can't speak for everyone who was in the keep JvR camp- but I do agree that sometimes it's good to trade people because they are valuable.  Where we seem to disagree, is where that sometimes is.

Right, and I'm not looking to open that sealed tomb. My comment was just that the lack of ability in the hockey media to acknowledge that reality is frustrating for someone who has been arguing for trading JVR for that very reason for the better part of two years.

 

[Kin]

Also, as a side note, I think it's showing a crazy amount of deference to the NHL's flawed regular season points-system to say the Leafs are a "Top 6" team without much in the way of doubt. The six points that separate them from Pittsburgh I'm pretty sure don't constitute enough for me to say they're a better team than the two time defending champs.

As a for instance, the Leafs are 12th in the league in ROW. 7-2 in the SO makes the record look nice but probably isn't as good an indicator of how good the team is.

 

[herman]

I wanted to trade JvR two years ago so that we wouldn't have to worry about how good he is; not sure he would've returned equivalent value at that time, but we'd have more resources to play with to build a different solution (RD).

No JvR back then would also surely mean dumping Bozak earlier, which is another asset gain. It also probably means we don't quite make the playoffs last year (which I would be fine with), but also Matthews et al. might not have been as sheltered.

I think we make a pitch to JvR anyway, at an amount Pridham thinks we can sustain, but still net a shutdown/OP centre and a top-4 D on the right side for the coming years. If he walks, oh well.

 

[Kin]

No JvR back then would also surely mean dumping Bozak earlier, which is another asset gain.

I don't think the two are inextricably linked. Dealing Bozak makes some sense but it only makes sense if, going forward, you don't think he makes sense at his current salary in his current role. I think that decision can be made independent of JVR's status.

 

[herman]

No JvR back then would also surely mean dumping Bozak earlier, which is another asset gain.

I don't think the two are inextricably linked. Dealing Bozak makes some sense but it only makes sense if, going forward, you don't think he makes sense at his current salary in his current role. I think that decision can be made independent of JVR's status.

Yes, I agree with that. I wasn't necessarily linking them, per se.

If we moved JvR, then what are you doing with that third line? A more defensive outfit? Unless the eventual return coming back was even more offense, then Bozak is not going to be all that useful. They had next to zero development curve left to build on, unlike Kadri and Gardiner.

 

[Kin]

If we moved JvR, then what are you doing with that third line? A more defensive outfit?

In the short term or the long term? In the short term I think that if you'd traded JVR the answer would have been to find an offensive winger on a short term deal that could have approximated a fair chunk of JVR's production. Long term, well, that's a question regardless.

 

[Coco-puffs]

I think we make a pitch to JvR anyway, at an amount Pridham thinks we can sustain, but still net a shutdown/OP centre and a top-4 D on the right side for the coming years. If he walks, oh well.

I have no doubt that Toronto will try to re-sign him but certainly on a team-friendly contract.  I think he probably walks though.

I'm not sure I have the same confidence that you have that we can acquire both of those other things.  The UFA market is thin for both.  It will be easier to trade for a 3rd line center than it will for a Top 4 RD, but I'm not sure its worth spending assets on the former when Nylander is showing he's probably more useful in the middle with his transition game (especially when Matthews is in the lineup and Willy can play in Bozak's sheltered role). 

As much as I don't like breaking up Matthews-Nylander, I think those guys can sustain their scoring rates apart from each other which means overall the team probably sees more output with them apart- driving each of those lines (with Kadri-Marner driving the other). 

(of course, if Tavares comes, I'm perfectly fine with Nylander staying on RW)

 

[herman]

I'm not sure I have the same confidence that you have that we can acquire both of those other things.  The UFA market is thin for both.  It will be easier to trade for a 3rd line center than it will for a Top 4 RD, but I'm not sure its worth spending assets on the former when Nylander is showing he's probably more useful in the middle with his transition game (especially when Matthews is in the lineup and Willy can play in Bozak's sheltered role). 

As much as I don't like breaking up Matthews-Nylander, I think those guys can sustain their scoring rates apart from each other which means overall the team probably sees more output with them apart- driving each of those lines (with Kadri-Marner driving the other). 

(of course, if Tavares comes, I'm perfectly fine with Nylander staying on RW)

I don't think we'll be able to get both C and D at the level we want (ALL THE PLAYERZ). I don't think the Leafs are too confident in getting that top 2 RD this offseason, and are just going to bide their time there and hope to stick the landing on one of their giant kids in the meantime.

I think Tavares will get a healthy pitch, probably healthier than what we offered Stamkos' know what they know about the kids now, but probably not the highest offer he sees (San Jose, Montreal, Vegas?! will take huge swings).

I also think Komarov will elect to re-sign here regardless of the offers out there.

 

[herman]

If we moved JvR, then what are you doing with that third line? A more defensive outfit?

In the short term or the long term? In the short term I think that if you'd traded JVR the answer would have been to find an offensive winger on a short term deal that could have approximated a fair chunk of JVR's production. Long term, well, that's a question regardless.

Short term, I think they would've just tried to stuff short term filler in there and see what comes out of the Marlies stew. Aaltonen would've gotten an NHL look probably in rotation with Nylander in the sheltered slot.

Now, we have options from internal growth, but no returned assets when JvR-Bozak walk.

 

[Kin]

Short term, I think they would've just tried to stuff short term filler in there and see what comes out of the Marlies stew. Aaltonen would've gotten an NHL look probably in rotation with Nylander in the sheltered slot.

Maybe, but like I said elsewhere if you were of the opinion that the team needed a scoring winger on the third line then that's probably the easiest thing to shop for on the free agent market.

Either way, I think any team that pays JVR 6.5 million per or more per year and then expects him to be a complete first line sort of player is going to have some rough nights ahead.

Now, we have options from internal growth, but no returned assets when JvR-Bozak walk.

But on the plus side they'll get knocked out of the first round in 6 or 7 instead of 4 or 5. Strong messages for everyone!