Kyle Dubas is new Leafs GM

[ZBBM]

My lord, he is so engaging. It's so refreshing to have a GM who's willing to speak candidly, while still not divulging sensitive information.

I really couldn't stand the Lou era. I'm so glad it's done.

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2018/06/18/kyle-dubas-on-approach-to-the-2018-draft-i-know-some-people-say-hes-only-a-trade-down-person-i-dont-know-how-that-got-to-that-point/

His answers are tinged with Lou-isms though. And overtly referenced at one point.

What people have failed to acknowledge is that Lou will be exerting his powers of mind control on the unsuspecting youngster.  Which is why you'll soon be reading this headline: "Martin heading back to Islanders for conditional 7th; Leafs retain 100% of salary."

 

[CarltonTheBear]

What people have failed to acknowledge is that Lou will be exerting his powers of mind control on the unsuspecting youngster.  Which is why you'll soon be reading this headline: "Martin heading back to Islanders for conditional 7th; Leafs retain 100% of salary."

How sad is it that I wouldn't even really hate that trade very much?

I mean it at least opens up a roster/contract spot.

 

[Frank E]

I wonder what the plan is with Leivo...speaking of roster guys that probably won't play next year.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I wonder what the plan is with Leivo...speaking of roster guys that probably won't play next year.

As of right now the entire 4th line is up for grabs and he can play either wing there. One of those spots will probably be his to lose. He can really cement his spot in the line-up too if Babcock feels he's best suited to replace JVR on the powerplay (so he better be working on his tips this offseason).

 

[herman]

https://theathletic.com/395870/2018/06/17/it-was-poetic-sheldon-keefe-and-kyle-dubas-built-themselves-and-their-team-together/

In the scene that played out on the TV in the background, another unforgettable photo was captured. In it? Head coach Sheldon Keefe, seven years after first joining forces with Dubas and the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds, handing his friend and boss his first championship trophy as a manager.

By the time Dubas and Keefe stepped off Ricoh?s ice for celebrations in the locker room, the former had already shown the latter the photo.

?I think in that photo you could see the passion that Kyle has for what?s been happening here. I think, really, in many ways it should have been him passing it to me. That?s perhaps more symbolic,? Keefe said. ?I?ve been incredibly grateful to coach this team. Kyle brought me here and believed in me. To be able to deliver feels good. Handing it off to him, it was poetic.?

When Keefe was first hired I kind of pooh-pooh'd that Dubas would hire an old hand rather than cast a wider net. I'm very glad to have been super wrong. These two work so well together and it was fantastic to see it culminate into a trophy hand-off and, as Justin Bourne so eloquently put it, a WWE-style celebration for Dubas.

 

[Zee]

https://theathletic.com/395870/2018/06/17/it-was-poetic-sheldon-keefe-and-kyle-dubas-built-themselves-and-their-team-together/

In the scene that played out on the TV in the background, another unforgettable photo was captured. In it? Head coach Sheldon Keefe, seven years after first joining forces with Dubas and the Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds, handing his friend and boss his first championship trophy as a manager.

By the time Dubas and Keefe stepped off Ricoh?s ice for celebrations in the locker room, the former had already shown the latter the photo.

?I think in that photo you could see the passion that Kyle has for what?s been happening here. I think, really, in many ways it should have been him passing it to me. That?s perhaps more symbolic,? Keefe said. ?I?ve been incredibly grateful to coach this team. Kyle brought me here and believed in me. To be able to deliver feels good. Handing it off to him, it was poetic.?

When Keefe was first hired I kind of pooh-pooh'd that Dubas would hire an old hand rather than cast a wider net. I'm very glad to have been super wrong. These two work so well together and it was fantastic to see it culminate into a trophy hand-off and, as Justin Bourne so eloquently put it, a WWE-style celebration for Dubas.

I don't know all the history with Keefe, but I remember that Dubas took a chance on him when he hired him as coach of the Soo.  Some past affiliation with the scum David Frost that I'm not quite sure about, and I believe teams were reluctant to give Keefe a chance.  Great to see that Dubas was able to see the potential in him and bring that to fruition.

 

[herman]

When Keefe was first hired I kind of pooh-pooh'd that Dubas would hire an old hand rather than cast a wider net. I'm very glad to have been super wrong. These two work so well together and it was fantastic to see it culminate into a trophy hand-off and, as Justin Bourne so eloquently put it, a WWE-style celebration for Dubas.

I don't know all the history with Keefe, but I remember that Dubas took a chance on him when he hired him as coach of the Soo.  Some past affiliation with the scum David Frost that I'm not quite sure about, and I believe teams were reluctant to give Keefe a chance.  Great to see that Dubas was able to see the potential in him and bring that to fruition.

My main contention at the time had little to nothing to do with the toxic Frost situation and more to do with let's get the best that MLSE's nigh-infinite resources can afford us.

Now, it's very clear how important the relationship between the coach and GM is in pushing a team to its full potential; Keefe is clearly a believer in Dubas' vision, but their relationship appears to be one in which each person can challenge the other and both grow as a result. When Keefe came on to coach the Greyhounds, their Corsi jumped from 48-ish% to 59-ish% (I'm just going by memory here). He buys into using deeper looks at the numbers, and he knows how to coach those insights into how his teams play.

You can tell from the player comments that the Marlies would go through any wall for Dubas.

 

[herman]

https://theathletic.com/397605/2018/06/18/bourne-what-should-fans-expect-from-kyle-dubas-and-the-maple-leafs-at-the-2018-draft/

Justin Bourne offers some perspective on Dubas' draft and team building philosophies. The long and short of it is that Dubas will favour players that are high ceilinged, so in the event of failure, you'd still have a useful player, i.e. players most of us here would be very interested in, and probably ones that Don Cherry would ermahgerd about.

 

[Kin]

https://theathletic.com/397605/2018/06/18/bourne-what-should-fans-expect-from-kyle-dubas-and-the-maple-leafs-at-the-2018-draft/

Justin Bourne offers some perspective on Dubas' draft and team building philosophies. The long and short of it is that Dubas will favour players that are high ceilinged, so in the event of failure, you'd still have a useful player, i.e. players most of us here would be very interested in, and probably ones that Don Cherry would ermahgerd about.

I'm not reading the article but isn't the general idea that picking where the Leafs are you're either picking between a high ceiling or a relative safe floor? If a player has both it's unlikely they're going to be around at #25.

 

[herman]

Isn't the general idea that picking where the Leafs are you're either picking between a high ceiling or a relative safe floor? If a player has both it's unlikely they're going to be around at #25.

I think he was speaking in general terms with regards to Dubas' philosophy, but yes, the late first round pick (which is where we expect to be picking for the duration of Dubas' contract) is the arena in which this becomes most apparent.

I have some idea of the attributes that the new Leafs GM prizes in players [...] I?m obviously not privy to the actual information, but I think I have a pretty good idea where the team?s priorities lie.

Per the article, Dubas prefers a history of production from forwards and will not be drafting specifically for players that are projected for depth roles (a la Gauthier). The illustration used was Kasperi Kapanen, who was a 20s pick that Dubas targeted in the Kessel trade: he's projected to be a scoring top-6 winger, but if he falls short, the development team has already shifted his floor up into NHL territory by building up a penalty killing prowess. In other words, a floor can be built up, but a talent ceiling can't (or is much more difficult) to push higher.

The corollary is that depth players can always be picked up outside the draft (waivers, trade-filler, UFA signings, etc.).

 

[Kin]

Per the article, Dubas prefers a history of production from forwards and will not be drafting specifically for players that are projected for depth roles (a la Gauthier). The illustration used was Kasperi Kapanen, who was a 20s pick that Dubas targeted in the Kessel trade: he's projected to be a scoring top-6 winger, but if he falls short, the development team has already shifted his floor up into NHL territory by building up a penalty killing prowess. In other words, a floor can be built up, but a talent ceiling can't (or is much more difficult) to push higher.

That sort of feels like cherry picking two isolated examples more than actual evidence of a strong pattern. I don't think either position holds up universally, lots of offensively skilled junior players can't convert into useful bottom 6 types and lots of guys dinged for not having high-end offensive talent coming into the draft develop it later on.

Generally speaking I like the idea of higher ceiling guys and I certainly don't think you should be aiming low with 1st round picks(or 31st overall picks) but a lot of the late 1st/early 2nd round steals are the sorts of "Well, he's got the tools but putting them together is the question" types that Gauthier was.

 

[Bender]

Per the article, Dubas prefers a history of production from forwards and will not be drafting specifically for players that are projected for depth roles (a la Gauthier). The illustration used was Kasperi Kapanen, who was a 20s pick that Dubas targeted in the Kessel trade: he's projected to be a scoring top-6 winger, but if he falls short, the development team has already shifted his floor up into NHL territory by building up a penalty killing prowess. In other words, a floor can be built up, but a talent ceiling can't (or is much more difficult) to push higher.

That sort of feels like cherry picking two isolated examples more than actual evidence of a strong pattern. I don't think either position holds up universally, lots of offensively skilled junior players can't convert into useful bottom 6 types and lots of guys dinged for not having high-end offensive talent coming into the draft develop it later on.

Generally speaking I like the idea of higher ceiling guys and I certainly don't think you should be aiming low with 1st round picks(or 31st overall picks) but a lot of the late 1st/early 2nd round steals are the sorts of "Well, he's got the tools but putting them together is the question" types that Gauthier was.

I didn't feel like Gauthier really had the tools to begin with. I think that point is fair that if a player has not produced in junior there's no point taking a swing hoping that in the best case scenario he ends up being a guy you can pick up via cheap trade or waiver wire.

DeBrincat does seem like a bit of a cherry pick though. I liked him, I would've liked to have taken a flyer on him, but we've seen plenty of small, skilled junior players flame out.

 

[Kin]

I didn't feel like Gauthier really had the tools to begin with. I think that point is fair that if a player has not produced in junior there's no point taking a swing hoping that in the best case scenario he ends up being a guy you can pick up via cheap trade or waiver wire.

But what does "produced in Junior" really mean in that context? In Gauthier's draft year he produced 60 points in 62 junior games. That's not great but, again, lots of guys have gone on to be really good offensive players in the NHL producing at comparable or even lower rates in their draft years.

I just read through a lot of the pre-draft scouting stuff on Gauthier and the reaction here and it's more "he could be a 2nd liner if he puts it all together" than it is "Best case scenario, he's a 4th liner".

 

[herman]

Personally, I think the issue of high skilled picks that flame out because they don't score enough for top-6 but aren't 'tough' enough for bottom-6 is going to be less of a factor on a team that does not prescribe to the top-bottom 6 formula, which is me getting back up on my don't-build-4th-lines-around-Matt-Martin-types soapbox.

The Marlies are the template of what Dubas wants.
1st line: high end speed/scoring
2nd line: secondary scoring
3rd line: matchup line, but with scoring touch
4th line: lower lineup overmatch scoring (this one is the main difference between the Marlies and the Leafs prior to the scratching of Martin)

Obviously depth in the NHL relative to the rest of the league will be more difficult to come by due to the salary cap and the higher ceiling of play.

 

[Kin]

Personally, I think the issue of high skilled picks that flame out because they don't score enough for top-6 but aren't 'tough' enough for bottom-6 is going to be less of a factor on a team that does not prescribe to the top-bottom 6 formula.

I don't think the only reason that some highly skilled players can't cut it in a traditional bottom six role is a lack of toughness. We've had this argument before but I don't think there's any real evidence that defense is any more developable than offense.

 

[Frank E]

I didn't feel like Gauthier really had the tools to begin with. I think that point is fair that if a player has not produced in junior there's no point taking a swing hoping that in the best case scenario he ends up being a guy you can pick up via cheap trade or waiver wire.

But what does "produced in Junior" really mean in that context? In Gauthier's draft year he produced 60 points in 62 junior games. That's not great but, again, lots of guys have gone on to be really good offensive players in the NHL producing at comparable or even lower rates in their draft years.

I just read through a lot of the pre-draft scouting stuff on Gauthier and the reaction here and it's more "he could be a 2nd liner if he puts it all together" than it is "Best case scenario, he's a 4th liner".

Without googling it, I remember the Gauthier being a strong defensive player with all those tools, big guy, but his offensive game needed work...as well as his skating.

 

[Kin]

Without googling it, I remember the Gauthier being a strong defensive player with all those tools, big guy, but his offensive game needed work...as well as his skating.

More or less. It's basically that if his offensive game/skating come together he'll be top 6, if not he's a safe bet for the bottom 6.

I said at the time that I thought that was only true using the older top 6/bottom 6 model and that his real worst case scenario was probably 4th liner Centre(the name David Steckel came up as a comparison) but the idea that he was seen as a guy whose best case scenario was 4th line doesn't hold up. He was pretty universally regarded as being a top 25 pick.

 

[hockeyfan1]

[tweet]1008053225180692481[/tweet]

In reference to Dubas' participation in the 2015 Entry Draft where the Leafs picked at #4, choosing Marner, and under Dubas' tutelage traded down twice -- their original 24th pick to Philadelphia for the 29th & 61st pick; then the 29th pick to Columbus for the 34th selection.  The Leafs thus obtained three  -- 34, 61, 68 -- from one (24th).
(In order of selection -- Dermot , Bracco, & Dzierkals were the picks).
(Lamoriello had not come on board yet.)

?Having that 2015 draft under my belt is great,? Dubas said. ?It?s not going to be an unknown going onto the draft floor in Dallas in this position."

https://theathletic.com/395819/2018/06/18/as-one-chapter-closes-another-one-opens-for-leafs-gm-kyle-dubas/

 

[herman]

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2018/06/22/kyle-dubas-on-drafting-25th-in-the-2018-nhl-draft-its-a-lively-and-fluid-situation-its-tough-to-predict-right-now/

Every time Dubas talks about the Leafs organization getting a good look at the Marlies and gaining new appreciation, we know who he's talking about right?

How about Marincin? Is he going to be back with the organization?

Dubas: We are in discussion with Marty?s people to see where he stands or not. He proved in the playoffs that he is a very, very valuable member of any organization. I know he?s had a turbulent ride here, and it was great to see him start to earn his confidence this year with the Marlies ? start to skate, make more plays, very, very solid defensively and excellent on the penalty kill, as he always has been. But I think our whole organization was impressed with how Marty?s game grew. He?s not a young prospect by any means ? he?s a 92 born ? but we are happy with where Marty is and I think he?d be a valuable member for us going forward.

 

[Kin]

I genuinely think that if the Leafs have a disappointing season next year in any regards, even if it's just not getting out of the 1st round again, we're going to start hearing whispers about coaching changes.