Kyle Dubas is new Leafs GM

[CarltonTheBear]

It looks like Lilley's been an American-based scout since 2006, he survived the big Shanny purge of 2015, and was promoted to the position of  Director of U.S. based scouting in 2016. Aside from the one notable exception, the Leafs really haven't had much success drafting American players in the past 12 years, and they didn't take any in the past 2 drafts. So from the outside looking in it seems like a bit of an odd choice. But as long as he knows how to sort columns in excel he should be fine.

 

[Zee]

It looks like Lilley's been an American-based scout since 2006, he survived the big Shanny purge of 2015, and was promoted to the position of  Director of U.S. based scouting in 2016. Aside from the one notable exception, the Leafs really haven't had much success drafting American players in the past 12 years, and they didn't take any in the past 2 drafts. So from the outside looking in it seems like a bit of an odd choice. But as long as he knows how to sort columns in excel he should be fine.

Perhaps his claim to fame is he heavily scouted Auston Matthews and convinced the Leafs to take him.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/scottcwheeler/status/1016373533436530688

 

[Kin]

It looks like Lilley's been an American-based scout since 2006, he survived the big Shanny purge of 2015, and was promoted to the position of  Director of U.S. based scouting in 2016. Aside from the one notable exception, the Leafs really haven't had much success drafting American players in the past 12 years, and they didn't take any in the past 2 drafts. So from the outside looking in it seems like a bit of an odd choice. But as long as he knows how to sort columns in excel he should be fine.

Yeah, I assume DAS is still involved in scouting but I have to assume that a lot of his role is now more about coordination and administration.

 

[cabber24]

Seriously though, let's start extending our big 3 kids.

9M, 8M, 6M for Matthews, Marnier, and Nylander respectively. I am probably low but my point is let's get the ball rolling.

 

[cabber24]

The Leafs will raise the cap themselves by being awesome.

As ridiculous as that may sound there's truth to it. No question, the NHL makes more when the Leafs are competitive. If the cap is $80M and the cap is determined by 57% of league revenues then league revenues equals $80M / 57% x 31 teams = $4.35B? Can anyone confirm the league revenue figure?

So if the Leafs want to move the cap themselves by $6M to pay for a Nylander it would require $326M more in revenues [(6M x 31 teams)/57%].

 

[bustaheims]

The Leafs will raise the cap themselves by being awesome.

As ridiculous as that may sound there's truth to it. No question, the NHL makes more when the Leafs are competitive. If the cap is $80M and the cap is determined by 57% of league revenues then league revenues equals $80M / 57% x 31 teams = $4.35B? Can anyone confirm the league revenue figure?

So if the Leafs want to move the cap themselves by $6M to pay for a Nylander it would require $326M more in revenues [(6M x 31 teams)/57%].

The league and the players split revenues evenly now.

 

[Kin]

No question, the NHL makes more when the Leafs are competitive.

Hold on, I actually do have a few questions. Is this true? Based on what? I'm sure the Leafs make more but the league?

 

[Frank E]

No question, the NHL makes more when the Leafs are competitive.

Hold on, I actually do have a few questions. Is this true? Based on what? I'm sure the Leafs make more but the league?

I guess one could infer that if there are more paying customers buying higher priced Leafs tickets, and maybe they make for a bigger draw at away games as well, the other teams would make more money, there would be more HRR, if everything else remained constant...but I'm not sure you could quantify that in an argument, today.

 

[bustaheims]

Hold on, I actually do have a few questions. Is this true? Based on what? I'm sure the Leafs make more but the league?

I imagine there's some evidence that happier fans spend more on concessions, merchandise, etc., but there's probably a similar drop off from teams that are underperforming. I'm willing to believe the league makes more money when the marquee teams are doing well, but I don't think it moves the needle all that much.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

The Leafs will raise the cap themselves by being awesome.

As ridiculous as that may sound there's truth to it. No question, the NHL makes more when the Leafs are competitive. If the cap is $80M and the cap is determined by 57% of league revenues then league revenues equals $80M / 57% x 31 teams = $4.35B? Can anyone confirm the league revenue figure?

So if the Leafs want to move the cap themselves by $6M to pay for a Nylander it would require $326M more in revenues [(6M x 31 teams)/57%].

If you want to raise the cap, I would suggest perhaps adding an expansion team, and then have it be really successful immediately. And then maybe add another in a couple of years.

 

[Bill_Berg]

No question, the NHL makes more when the Leafs are competitive.

Hold on, I actually do have a few questions. Is this true? Based on what? I'm sure the Leafs make more but the league?

If the Leafs are better, there are more viewers so television contacts are worth more?

 

[Highlander]

It looks like Lilley's been an American-based scout since 2006, he survived the big Shanny purge of 2015, and was promoted to the position of  Director of U.S. based scouting in 2016. Aside from the one notable exception, the Leafs really haven't had much success drafting American players in the past 12 years, and they didn't take any in the past 2 drafts. So from the outside looking in it seems like a bit of an odd choice. But as long as he knows how to sort columns in excel he should be fine.

Yeah, I assume DAS is still involved in scouting but I have to assume that a lot of his role is now more about coordination and administration.

There is a conspiracy going on here. Now Lilley and we had Lilleypad before, could this be a whole new pond thing going on. Ponds freeze, now it begins to make sense.

 

[Kin]

Hold on, I actually do have a few questions. Is this true? Based on what? I'm sure the Leafs make more but the league?

I imagine there's some evidence that happier fans spend more on concessions, merchandise, etc., but there's probably a similar drop off from teams that are underperforming. I'm willing to believe the league makes more money when the marquee teams are doing well, but I don't think it moves the needle all that much.

I was sort of being facetious but I agree with you for the most part. It's just that there was a lot of "Well, if the big market teams are worse then people will just watch the better small market teams instead" during the lockout and I've never thought that was true.

 

[Fanatic]

Hold on, I actually do have a few questions. Is this true? Based on what? I'm sure the Leafs make more but the league?

I imagine there's some evidence that happier fans spend more on concessions, merchandise, etc., but there's probably a similar drop off from teams that are underperforming. I'm willing to believe the league makes more money when the marquee teams are doing well, but I don't think it moves the needle all that much.

I was sort of being facetious but I agree with you for the most part. It's just that there was a lot of "Well, if the big market teams are worse then people will just watch the better small market teams instead" during the lockout and I've never thought that was true.

Your original question started me thinking about this. I suppose it's likely, that with a few Leafs stars there has been a lot (a lot!) of Leafs NHL jerseys sold in the past 2 years. It would make sense that a portion of these "Official NHL" jerseys would kick back to the league.

I have nothing to go on for this, but I think it would be fair to guess that the Leafs are selling at least double the number of sweaters that they were prior to Matthews being drafted.

 

[Hobbes]

One has to wonder if it matters much at all for a team like the Leafs or Habs. They're sold out every home game already so there's no revenue increase there. I suppose they're more likely to draw a few extra tickets for away games, but they already do that to a fair degree so it would only be the net increase in sales.

A competitive team would allow the team to jack up the price of tickets, though, so I suppose that could increase revenue a bit. Merchandise sales probably isn't all that significant a fraction of total revenue.

TV contracts are already signed for the next x years. It's Sportsnet/TSN/US stations that will pocket the benefits of higher advertising revenue due to higher TV ratings.

I would tend to think it would be a small market teams who would help the most if their team was successful since a few thousand (or tens of thousands) of extra seat sales would significantly boost league revenue.

 

[herman]

Kyle Dubas certainly has a type: https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/67264/john-lilley

 

[cabber24]

https://canucksarmy.com/2017/12/15/h-is-for-hockey-related-revenues/

This is great article regarding team finances. Since teams are privately held the financials are not readily available. Thankfully Forbes was able to do an estimation that calculated a total revenue close to the number Bettman stated therefore the Forbes data provides some reliable insight.

Read the article. It's clear the Leafs contribution is substantial according to the cumulative operating income chart.

As indicated in the article small market teams can't afford the floor. The profitable teams vs the non-profitable gap is to big to maintain current CBA conditions. I think the goal of parity and profitability (for everyone) will have to include either the players taking less percentage of hockey related revenues or the introduction of a soft cap/luxury tax system.

 

[herman]

Along these lines, how does playoff revenue feed back into the league revenue? Because the Leafs going deep into the playoffs is $$$$$...

 

[cabber24]

Along these lines, how does playoff revenue feed back into the league revenue? Because the Leafs going deep into the playoffs is $$$$$...

3 home games for the second round: $350 average per seat x 17,000 seats x 3 games = $17,850,000 moves the cap needle $287,903.23 (17.85M x 0.5 / 31). That's just tickets sales for round two.