Leafs Accquire McCabe and Lafferty

[Peter D.]

The O'Reilly trade, and now this trade to supplement it, strikes as three things to me regarding Dubas:

1. The team is all-in for this year.

2. In conjunction with #1, a bunch of the other Eastern Conference teams are in an arm's race, so they Leafs have decided to join in.

3. If this is pretty much a boom or bust playoffs for Dubas and job as Leafs GM, then he has nothing to lose because if nothing comes out of this year's playoffs, he won't be around to worry about fixing the mess and ravaging of draft capital he has left behind. 

All that being said, I have no issues whatsoever with these moves.  If you're going to go for it, better to do so than half-assing it.  Whether these are/were the right moves in the end is to be determined, but kudos to Dubas for being proactive and wanting to give it a run.

 

[Deebo]

Even if they aren't planning on having Knies in the line-up for game 1 of the playoffs, both sides will likely want to get him signed to burn off a year of his contract. So that's some additional cap space Dubas might need to create.

There are only 3 games left after the NCAA season ends on Apr 8th, is that enough time to burn a year?

 

[bustaheims]

Even if they aren't planning on having Knies in the line-up for game 1 of the playoffs, both sides will likely want to get him signed to burn off a year of his contract. So that's some additional cap space Dubas might need to create.

There are only 3 games left after the NCAA season ends on Apr 8th, is that enough time to burn a year?

Playoff games also count, I believe.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Even if they aren't planning on having Knies in the line-up for game 1 of the playoffs, both sides will likely want to get him signed to burn off a year of his contract. So that's some additional cap space Dubas might need to create.

There are only 3 games left after the NCAA season ends on Apr 8th, is that enough time to burn a year?

Since he turned 20 years old in October his contract isn't eligible to slide. If he signs an ELC that that starts this season the first year will get burned even if he doesn't play a single game.

 

[cw]

My understanding is if Knies signs after the deadline he can't be sent down. Abruzesse was in the same boat last year no or do I have it wrong?

I'm not positive. It may be that he/they has to choose.

For AHL playoffs, a NCAA drafted prospect could be added to the Clear Day roster for their playoffs as I recall.

Abruzzese was signed in later March but did not appear on the roster until early April. They had some sort of ability to have signed him but not have him on the NHL roster and therefore, not count against the cap for a period of time - which is the important consideration here for Knies.

If they do not make cap space for Knies, they will have to do something like that and his first NHL game could very well be in a Leafs playoff game. That is part of the reason why I think they are going to do something to clear some cap space.

Dubas went down to watch him play last Saturday or so. He's not doing that just before the playoffs, during the final days of the trade deadline, if he's not pretty interested in Knies availability for these playoffs.

A winger with Knies size probably has the best chance of helping directly out of the NCAA compared with a center, defenseman or goalie - though his chances of impact are not great. But they would be crazy not to give him a chance.

This.

They just spent quite a lot to insulate themselves from having to possibly run both Liljegren and Sandin in the same game and have them get torched by a ferocious playoff-like forecheck like they did last game against Boston.  That had to get Dubas's attention.

My guess is that Knies will be in the lineup for G1 because he can be on the sending end of those fearsome forechecks.  You are right cw, of all the player types that could step in and make a positive impact (not necessarily a BIG positive impact, but positive nonetheless), he's it.

I woke up having second thoughts about this. I saw Dubas speaking to the media about Knies and how wonderful it was that he was a Hobey Baker candidate on the great line of a top team going for the National Championship, etc and that that had to be the development priority .... Afterwards, he could consider his future with the Leafs ..

But I put myself in his shoes and wondered what was really going through his mind. He has to beat Tampa or he's out of a job. He needs every hand on deck he can muster to do that. 'Screw the National Championship' - he'd really like Knies to try to help plug the hole on left wing. I wouldn't blame him. He's just trying to doing his job and survive in a big media bubble.

So here's the part where I had second thoughts: what if Knies said "I'm leaning towards another year of school. There's this girl ..."  Maybe that drove him to add Lafferty ??

Bottom line is Dubas HAS to do something to get under the cap when Murray returns (unless there's another LTIR injury) - whether Knies comes or not - and he probably must sort that out before the deadline. When the music stops for the roster chairs, if there is no LTIR injury, I think Kerfoot or Engvall are the most likely to be left standing. He might even finish off going all in by getting a 50% retained left winger.

 

[cujo4ever]

All in, I like it. Leafs may not have a better squad than this year for a long time. Bring on the Bolts.

GO LEAFS GO!

 

[Redleaf]

I hear a lot of people saying Dubas is finished in Toronto if they fail to beat Tampa in the first round again this year.

How sure is everyone here that will be the case?

Do you think MLSE already has a list of replacement GMs on deck just waiting to take over in case of a game 7 OT winner for Tampa?

As I stated earlier I?d be very surprised to see them just let him go based solely on the fact his team couldn?t once again beat out this years potential Stanley cup champion. Particularly if it?s another evenly matched see-saw series with Tampa needing extra luck to pull off the victory.

I?m just not convinced unless maybe the series is a sweep for Tampa? And the Leafs are a disgrace in the series.

It?s been said before, but you don?t just change a general manager for the sake of changing a general manager, and then hope the gamble pays off with immediate success and much improvement over the last GM.

 

[Bill_Berg]

Putting the Knies stuff together. Is this right?

If he doesn't sign by Friday, he can't play in the NHL playoffs this year and if he does sign by Friday, then he can't pay NCAA games from that point on?

 

[herman]

Putting the Knies stuff together. Is this right?

If he doesn't sign by Friday, he can't play in the NHL playoffs this year and if he does sign by Friday, then he can't pay NCAA games from that point on?

He only needs to sign by Friday if we want him on the Marlies? playoff run. He is already on our reserve list so he would be eligible to sign an ELC anytime and join the Leafs? playoff run (provided there is cap space). Once he signs pro, he is ineligible for NCAA.

See Nick Abruzzese last year for example
https://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2022/3/26/22997700/nick-abruzzese-signed-to-elc-toronto-maple-leafs

 

[Bill_Berg]

Putting the Knies stuff together. Is this right?

If he doesn't sign by Friday, he can't play in the NHL playoffs this year and if he does sign by Friday, then he can't pay NCAA games from that point on?

He only needs to sign by Friday if we want him on the Marlies? playoff run. He is already on our reserve list so he would be eligible to sign an ELC anytime and join the Leafs? playoff run (provided there is cap space). Once he signs pro, he is ineligible for NCAA.

Got it, that's way better. But not many reg season games to see what he's got if he plays in the Frozen Four.

 

[Bill33]

I hear a lot of people saying Dubas is finished in Toronto if they fail to beat Tampa in the first round again this year.

How sure is everyone here that will be the case?

It's hard to look at the fact that they chose not to extend him, as well as the futures he's burned in the last week, and not make the assertion that his future with the club is tied directly to their playoff performance.

I think he's a good GM and I'm not sure I'd want to go in a different direction either, but the situation regarding his future looks pretty clear.

 

[Bender]

At this point all you can do is hope for the best. I'm still a lot happier with them taking a meaningful run now and staring down a rebuild in the future vs. not going for it now and ending up like the Nashville Predators.

 

[ZBBM]

I hear a lot of people saying Dubas is finished in Toronto if they fail to beat Tampa in the first round again this year.

How sure is everyone here that will be the case?

It's hard to look at the fact that they chose not to extend him, as well as the futures he's burned in the last week, and not make the assertion that his future with the club is tied directly to their playoff performance.

I think he's a good GM and I'm not sure I'd want to go in a different direction either, but the situation regarding his future looks pretty clear.

Red Leaf, I respect your reasoned response but it's a results-oriented business.  If they lose in R1 again, how can you justify re-signing Dubas to do more of the same?  SOMETHING would have to give, and Dubas is, for better or worse, invested in the core 4 + Reilly + Keefe.

Dubas is a wonderful guy and I like everything about him as a person.  That's not nothing.  And like all GMs he's had his hits and misses.  I don't think, however, that he's irreplaceable.

If they go out in R1 again, no matter how, he's gone (and so will Keefe).  And should be. 

 

[Bill_Berg]

I hear a lot of people saying Dubas is finished in Toronto if they fail to beat Tampa in the first round again this year.

How sure is everyone here that will be the case?

It's hard to look at the fact that they chose not to extend him, as well as the futures he's burned in the last week, and not make the assertion that his future with the club is tied directly to their playoff performance.

I think he's a good GM and I'm not sure I'd want to go in a different direction either, but the situation regarding his future looks pretty clear.

Red Leaf, I respect your reasoned response but it's a results-oriented business.  If they lose in R1 again, how can you justify re-signing Dubas to do more of the same?  SOMETHING would have to give, and Dubas is, for better or worse, invested in the core 4 + Reilly + Keefe.

Dubas is a wonderful guy and I like everything about him as a person.  That's not nothing.  And like all GMs he's had his hits and misses.  I don't think, however, that he's irreplaceable.

If they go out in R1 again, no matter how, he's gone (and so will Keefe).  And should be. 

Yeah they'll bring worse people in and we'll be rebuilding again in 3 years.

 

[cw]

I hear a lot of people saying Dubas is finished in Toronto if they fail to beat Tampa in the first round again this year.

How sure is everyone here that will be the case?

It's hard to look at the fact that they chose not to extend him, as well as the futures he's burned in the last week, and not make the assertion that his future with the club is tied directly to their playoff performance.

I think he's a good GM and I'm not sure I'd want to go in a different direction either, but the situation regarding his future looks pretty clear.

Red Leaf, I respect your reasoned response but it's a results-oriented business.  If they lose in R1 again, how can you justify re-signing Dubas to do more of the same?  SOMETHING would have to give, and Dubas is, for better or worse, invested in the core 4 + Reilly + Keefe.

Dubas is a wonderful guy and I like everything about him as a person.  That's not nothing.  And like all GMs he's had his hits and misses.  I don't think, however, that he's irreplaceable.

If they go out in R1 again, no matter how, he's gone (and so will Keefe).  And should be.

I agree with you Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate. Results oriented decision.

I also don't mind Dubas. I think he's smart and capable, etc. It will be sad and disappointing if he falls short here. Maybe even a little unfair because this roster is a heck of a collection of talent - arguably as good as any since 1967. They just happen to be up against one of the better goalies over the last few decades and a very good Cup winning team. He might not get another NHL GM position immediately but I doubt it will take too long for someone to give him another shot.

The one thing I would add is that I doubt the Leafs will have a problem finding decent candidates to replace him while risking that they do not replace Dubas with someone as capable.

 

[Redleaf]

If they fail to beat Tampa and they let go of Dubas as a result, I?d be disillusioned with the entire operation of MLSE. I know it?s the name of the game but sometimes results take longer than expected . Even much longer. And this team is still making strides forwards? not backwards.

That scenario would have a lot of similarities with the Steve Jobs story. When Apple couldn?t compete with the top players in the game, like Microsoft and IBM and as quickly as the board wanted, they let him go and brought in the CEO from Pepsi, who didn?t have a clue about the PC industry.  It nearly bankrupted the company before they realized their mistake and brought Jobs and his vision back to Apple.

As we know he proceeded to turn Apple into one of the biggest companies on the planet. Point being ? sometimes management change ?isn?t? the answer. Sometimes you need to keep emotions in check and out of the decision making process,  trust the guy who?s still making the team better year after year and give him the room to see it through .

Call me a dreamer I guess.

 

[Bill_Berg]

If they fail to beat Tampa and they let go of Dubas as a result, I?d be disillusioned with the entire operation of MLSE. I know it?s the name of the game but sometimes results take longer than expected . Even much longer. And this team is still making strides forwards? not backwards.

That scenario would have a lot of similarities with the Steve Jobs story. When Apple couldn?t compete with the top players in the game, like Microsoft and IBM and as quickly as the board wanted, they let him go and brought in the CEO from Pepsi, who didn?t have a clue about the PC industry.  It nearly bankrupted the company before they realized their mistake and brought Jobs and his vision back to Apple.

As we know he proceeded to turn Apple into one of the biggest companies on the planet. Point being ? sometimes management change ?isn?t? the answer. Sometimes you need to keep emotions in check and out of the decision making process and trust the guy who?s still making the team better year after year.

Call me a dreamer I guess.

And there is so much luck in hockey that results should be a little less important that they are perceived to be.

 

[Peter D.]

If they fail to beat Tampa and they let go of Dubas as a result, I?d be disillusioned with the entire operation of MLSE. I know it?s the name of the game but sometimes results take longer than expected . Even much longer. And this team is still making strides forwards? not backwards.

That scenario would have a lot of similarities with the Steve Jobs story. When Apple couldn?t compete with the top players in the game, like Microsoft and IBM and as quickly as the board wanted, they let him go and brought in the CEO from Pepsi, who didn?t have a clue about the PC industry.  It nearly bankrupted the company before they realized their mistake and brought Jobs and his vision back to Apple.

As we know he proceeded to turn Apple into one of the biggest companies on the planet. Point being ? sometimes management change ?isn?t? the answer. Sometimes you need to keep emotions in check and out of the decision making process,  trust the guy who?s still making the team better year after year and give him the room to see it through .

Call me a dreamer I guess.

I'm all over the map when it comes to Dubas.

He's a great person, but he leaves a lot to be desired as a GM.  Never been a huge fan of his.  He's done a lot of good, and some not so good.  I find he is vastly overrated and he comes across as a guy who thinks he's the smartest guy in the room when he talks.

Yet, even with another early exit, I'd learn towards keeping him around a bit longer than trying to find someone else out there.  I'm not sure a new vision and different direction is a good idea at this juncture and where things stand with the team at the moment.

 

[Arn]

I?d rather keep Dubas for another contract and change Keefe if things go wrong in the playoffs this season.

Maybe if it?s 0-4 and a negative 20 goal differential.

I think Dubas is doing his job. I, not sure Keefe has been.

 

[cw]

The chances of the Leafs winning a Cup this year are about 10% (very roughly). Maybe it is 7%? Maybe more. Whatever. It is not large even though they're arguably a top 4 team. Boston, having an exceptional season, would be around 20% - very roughly. The chances the Leafs don't win a Cup this year or next is probably well over 80%. In two years time - end of 2024, Matthews and Nylander are UFAs. Tavares and Marner are UFAs the following year, in June 2025. If the cupboard is pretty bare from trading all the draft picks for the Cup runs previous years, this year and next, how do you entice these guys already worth tens of millions and wanting to win a Cup, to stay for a long rebuild?

After next season, it is harder to see a window for them.

So the Dubas debate if they fall short will be: do they sign him short term for next season to give him a last crack or do they let someone else have a last crack? If they make the finals, that is probably not a debate.

The window for this roster and Dubas seems to be closing in the next year or two.