Leafs acquire Connor Dewar from MIN

[CarltonTheBear]

Simmonds says this is a confusing move because they have a 4th line centre already. Nobody on the panel thinks it's a good move.

He knows someone can like just play wing, right?

It doesn't address the glaring need of a 3C is what he's talking about. Hey if it keeps Gregor out of the lineup it's all good.

Ah yeah if that was the point that's fair. 3C was a need for sure but so was a speedy 4th line penalty killer all season long. Like you said the hope was Gregor could fill that role but honestly he's pretty clearly just not a NHLer to me so the Leafs couldn't go into playoffs with him and Holmberg in the 12/13 forward spots.

 

[cw]

I'm not familiar with him
He had some good PK numbers with the Wild at a glance. That probably motivated them.
Plays bigger than he is.
As a RFA, they should get some term with the pick if he works out.
He's not big, 46.9% FOW% which could improve with experience
Apparently plays all forward positions.

20-25% of 4th rounders make the NHL (for a few seasons or more) typically years after they're drafted.
In this case, a 2026 4th round pick is flipped into a guaranteed, cost effective NHL player and that 2026 asset helps the team now.
They have to do more deals like this to help Matthews & Co.
It beats the heck out of a rental.

It tries to help their weakest part of the team: the PK (as the Edmundson deal was trying to do I think)

Don't know the guy but its my favorite deal of the 3 recent ones

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Cap/roster breakdown now:

The acquisition of Dewar bumps the Leafs roster up to 24. They'll send Knies down to get under the limit and bring him back up tomorrow when the limit goes away. That gives them a 24-man roster with Giordano on the IR and Timmins on the LTIR.

To get Timmins off of LTIR, which likely happens soon, I would guess Giordano just slides from IR to LTIR before his return. This gives the Leafs a 25-man roster with about $50k in cap space.

In order to take Gio off of LTIR (assuming that even happens before the end of the season, and assuming no other LTIR injuries) cap space will need to be created. That will likely happen with either Gregor or Holmberg being waived. Neither player would be eligible to play in the playoffs for a team that claims them so I think the odds are they clear but it's not certain. Why the Leafs played Holmberg in 3 additional games to wipe away his waiver eligibility is beyond me but hey I don't make the calls.

All of this doesn't even include Nick Robertson, who is currently stuck in the minors despite being told he wouldn't be there long. For the Leafs to bring him up at any stage they would need to send another player down.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Cap/roster breakdown now:

The acquisition of Dewar bumps the Leafs roster up to 24. They'll send Knies down to get under the limit and bring him back up tomorrow when the limit goes away. That gives them a 24-man roster with Giordano on the IR and Timmins on the LTIR.

To get Timmins off of LTIR, which likely happens soon, I would guess Giordano just slides from IR to LTIR before his return. This gives the Leafs a 25-man roster with about $50k in cap space.

In order to take Gio off of LTIR (assuming that even happens before the end of the season, and assuming no other LTIR injuries) cap space will need to be created. That will likely happen with either Gregor or Holmberg being waived. Neither player would be eligible to play in the playoffs for a team that claims them so I think the odds are they clear but it's not certain. Why the Leafs played Holmberg in 3 additional games to wipe away his waiver eligibility is beyond me but hey I don't make the calls.

All of this doesn't even include Nick Robertson, who is currently stuck in the minors despite being told he wouldn't be there long. For the Leafs to bring him up at any stage they would need to send another player down.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Gregor go on waivers real soon and wouldn't be surprised to see them waive Jones at some point. Don't see Holmberg getting waived and agree with you on playing him to kill is waiver status and then a few games later, they sit him for 2 for Gregor.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

2020 5th rounder Dmitry Ovchinnikov was also included in this deal. I'll just echo the thoughts on that from the below tweets:

https://twitter.com/Kyle_Cush/status/1766218342765908199
https://twitter.com/Kyle_Cush/status/1766218956073811995

 

[cabber24]

So no major roster upheaval like last season with all the new faces.  Couple of dmen and a depth forward.  As always this is on the big 3 (lesser extent Tavares) and a hot goalie to do something in the playoffs.

I disagree, Keefe has been attempting to tap into the team's depth somewhat successfully of late. You cannot win anything depending on 3 players only. We're going to need continued improvement and contribution from outside the "core 4". I think the team has made strides with Robertson, McMann, Bertuzzi, Domi, and Timothy. Keep leaning on the whole group. Timothy and Bert on PP1, roll at least 3 lines, etc.

 

[Guilt Trip]

Timothy and Bert on PP1, roll at least 3 lines, etc.

This needs to be done. PP has struggled with Rielly since his return.

 

[cw]

2020 5th rounder Dmitry Ovchinnikov was also included in this deal. I'll just echo the thoughts on that from the below tweets:

https://twitter.com/Kyle_Cush/status/1766218342765908199
https://twitter.com/Kyle_Cush/status/1766218956073811995

"The Maple Leafs keep two contract slots open with Ovchinnikov heading to Minnesota in the Dewar trade. It's unlikely that matters, but it does leave them the ability to sign an NCAA free agent to a 2023-24 ELC if there's anyone they're high on."

Once again, at a glance, the NHL UFA market doesn't look that hot to me.
Freeing up a contract slot makes lots of sense.

They have to go hard at the NCAA and beating the bushes for UFAs in Europe, etc to make up for the lack of draft picks.
About 10% of the NHL is made up of undrafted players.
In recent years, Leafs have been active with this.
Hopefully, their scouts are all over it.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Once again, at a glance, the NHL UFA market doesn't look that hot to me.
Freeing up a contract slot makes lots of sense.

They have to go hard at the NCAA and beating the bushes for UFAs in Europe, etc to make up for the lack of draft picks.
About 10% of the NHL is made up of undrafted players.
In recent years, Leafs have been active with this.
Hopefully, their scouts are all over it.

They've been courting the top Russian guy in the KHL.

That'd leave them another slot for whichever college/OHL overager they want, or they sign the big unit they traded for the other day, Cade.

 

[herman]

https://x.com/markukleaf/status/1766267585400558039
Staying here to continue to be scratched?

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Staying here to continue to be scratched?

This probably gives stock to the idea that he was just thrown in to keep Toronto at 2 open contract slots more than anything else. Looking through the teams contract list he really is the most expendable both to the Leafs and Marlies and both for the present and future.

I suspect he's likely returning to the KHL next season. And honestly, he probably should have developed a little more over there before making the jump to NA.

 

[cw]

Once again, at a glance, the NHL UFA market doesn't look that hot to me.
Freeing up a contract slot makes lots of sense.

They have to go hard at the NCAA and beating the bushes for UFAs in Europe, etc to make up for the lack of draft picks.
About 10% of the NHL is made up of undrafted players.
In recent years, Leafs have been active with this.
Hopefully, their scouts are all over it.

They've been courting the top Russian guy in the KHL.

That'd leave them another slot for whichever college/OHL overager they want, or they sign the big unit they traded for the other day, Cade.

There are some RFAs like Petruzzelli or Ellis that may not be qualified or UFA Gambrell and 3 expiring on LTIR that will open some contract spots.

I think some of the over-ager UFAs like this tend to have a shorter development time. Our window for a Cup may only be the 4 seasons after this with Matthews. Therefore, it is more important than ever to explore this - as I suspect they know.

It was important to me that they did not burn a 1st on a rental. However, if they draft an 18 year old dman near the bottom of the first round, he's likely to develop something like Liljegren or Sandin .. they're typically & roughly 24-25 years old before they hit their NHL stride. They'll hit their stride about 2 years after Matthews deal ends. So these assets are likely to be needed to be rolled over into more developed assets with term that can help Matthews & Co in their Cup runs.