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Leafs @ Capitals - Nov. 7th, 7:00pm - CBC, TSN 1050

Al14 said:
I thought we'd have more wins with Babcock at this point.  We still might be later in the season.

Has nothing to do with Babcock. Not gonna win a lot of games when you're always the 2nd most talented team on the ice. Leafs just don't have the offensive talent to win a lot of games. 2 goals or less in 9 of 14 games now.
 
Morgan Rielly - Kind of awesome or not so much.

10 points in 14 games on this putrid team.

This team needs to stop picking up loser points.
 
Very good effort and should have one, Komrade didnt clear with about 18 on the clock. Still a good effort against one of the best teams around.
 
8 points in 14 games.  On pace for 12 wins 47 losses and 23 OTL/SOL.  That's a torrid 47 point pace.  That would be the worst season in the shootout era.
 
L K said:
8 points in 14 games.  On pace for 12 wins 47 losses and 23 OTL/SOL.  That's a torrid 47 point pace.  That would be the worst season in the shootout era.
I wouldn't count on that pace..they are getting better as the season is going on.
 
Gotta admit they are getting better and so is Reimer. The nice thing is this feels as it is part of the plan. At least they are watchable unlike last year. Effort is there and more structure for sure.
 
bustaheims said:
jdh1 said:
I wouldn't count on that pace..they are getting better as the season is going on.

Their possession numbers are dropping, but, sure, let's go with they're getting better.

Luckier, at last.

When their possession numbers were up, their goaltending, shooting percentage (even given the talent level), and special teams were all down. In the last handful of games, they're getting .925 goaltending, shooting 8.3% (season average in under 7), and the special teams are looking better.

So, are they getting 'better'? Maybe as they're getting worse and their luck is turning? As far as the standings go, does it make much difference?
 
Because the Leafs have only played 14 games I'll divide it into 7 game stretches.

First 7 games - 1-4-2; 16 GF; 22 GA 
Next 7 games - 1-4-2; 13 GF; 20 GA

Their possession numbers are dropping and the results are pretty much the same.  A team that can't score, isn't terrible defensively but can't shut teams down and a team that loses a lot.  They won't finish with 12 wins on the year but this is going to be a 50-60 point team at best.  A year too late for McDavid but primed for a top pick this year.
 
L K said:
Morgan Rielly - Kind of awesome or not so much.

10 points in 14 games on this putrid team.

This team needs to stop picking up loser points.

Nice to see him leading the team in points, although it doesn't exactly bode well for the forwards.

On a side note, I noticed Rielly has yet to take a penalty. Considering the ice time he's getting, and the quality of players he's out against, that's pretty impressive.
 
I thought the Leafs played with an improved team effort in games against the Wings and the Capitals.  That James Reimer sure stands out as does Reilly.

This team still can't score much but at least the improvement in effort continues, which means they'll probably start improving in other areas as well.  Having Babcock as coach, he definitely won't accept it to be worse than it already is.  They'll be working hard in trying to earn wins.
 
L K said:
Because the Leafs have only played 14 games I'll divide it into 7 game stretches.

First 7 games - 1-4-2; 16 GF; 22 GA 
Next 7 games - 1-4-2; 13 GF; 20 GA

Their possession numbers are dropping and the results are pretty much the same.  A team that can't score, isn't terrible defensively but can't shut teams down and a team that loses a lot.  They won't finish with 12 wins on the year but this is going to be a 50-60 point team at best.  A year too late for McDavid but primed for a top pick this year.

Can also split it by month or 10 game chunks... Both principles of chunking overlap for drawing a line at the end of October. That gets you this:

October -- 1-7-2 (.200)
SH% = 6.5%
SV% = .891
PP = 7%
PP Sh% = 4.4%
PK = 74%
PK Sv% = .821

November -- 1-1-2 (.500)
SH% = 8.6%
SV% = .939
PP = 27%
PP Sh% = 21.1%
PK = 92%
PK Sv% = .941

I don't think they're as bad as October (40 point team) or as good as the first four of November (80 point team), but "60 points at best" still seems a bit too low to me. Enough things are looking better -- special teams, goaltending, shooting percentage -- that I wouldn't count on a 47 point pace. Even if their possession stats slip.
 

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