Leafs @ Devils - Dec. 27th, 7:00pm - SNO, TSN 1050

[CarltonTheBear]

@

20-14-4, 44 points | 12-19-5, 29 points

Projected Lines

Hyman-Matthews-Marner Engvall-Tavares-Mikheyev Nylander-Kerfoot-Kapanen Timashov-Gauthier-Spezza Rielly-Barrie Muzzin-Holl Dermott-Ceci Andersen ​

Boqvist-Hischier-Palmieri Coleman-Zajac-Gusev Wood-Hughes-Simmonds Bratt-Zacha-Hayden Green-Subban Mueller-Severson Butcher-Vatanen Blackwood​

Scratches

Trevor Moore Martin Marincin Adam Brooks ​

Kevin Rooney Connor Carrick ​

Game Notes

TOR
?Andersen (19-8-3, 2.64 GAA, .916 Sv%) will likely start for the Leafs
?No word yet on who starts this game. The Leafs play tomorrow night at home against the Rangers. This seems like it could be a Hutchinson start so we'll just have to wait for practice notes

NJ
?Blackwood (11-10-4, 2.81 GAA, .909 Sv%) will likely start for the Devils
?Blackwood is in a pretty good stretch of games as he's 3-2-1 in his last 7 with a .945 Sv% and 1.73 GAA

Injuries

?Trevor Moore - Shoulder - Questionable Friday ?Andreas Johnsson - Leg - Injured Reserve​

?Jesper Boqvist - Upper Body - Questionable Friday ?Louis Domingue - Lower Body - Injured Reserve ?Matt Tennyson - Upper Body - Injured Reserve​

Stream Options

https://www.reddit.com/r/NHLstreams
​

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/kristen_shilton/status/1210568586319798272

Just in time for me to list them as healthy scratches.

 

[Kin]

I know I've said this before but it really does blow my mind that the League didn't change anything after the Oilers' fiasco and with the Devils we could be looking at yet another team that gets 3 first overall picks in the span of less than 5 years.

 

[WAYNEINIONA]

Let's make it six in a row.

 

[Zee]

Another 2pm game let's go!!!

 

[cujo4ever]

GO LEAFS GO!

 

[disco]

Go Leafs Go!

 

[Hobbes]

I know I've said this before but it really does blow my mind that the League didn't change anything after the Oilers' fiasco and with the Devils we could be looking at yet another team that gets 3 first overall picks in the span of less than 5 years.

That's not strictly true. They have changed the way the top few picks are awarded. So it's now only a 18.5% chance if you finished last and on average the last place team will pick 3rd.

While they haven't outlawed the possibility of multiple first overall picks happening for a team in a short span of years, I suspect any hard cap would open up a nasty can of worms considering potential unusual cases of failed picks, injury, trades, etc.

The other side note to this is if a team were to "hit" on multiple 1st overall picks, they'll very soon be in serious cap hell which is what happened to the Oilers. These days a 1st overall pick (that isn't a dud) is going to command $10M+ as of their 4th year in the league, so that window of opportunity is going to be very tight if they've sucked badly enough to nab that pick multiple times in a short number of years.

It would be nice to spread it around but there are some teams that seem to have done pretty well without a 1st overall pick...the most recent 1st overall pick to win a cup was Kane (2007), and of the other 12 players drafted since then I'd guess Stamkos and McKinnon are probably the two with the best chance of hoisting one in the near future, and maybe Tavares (not with the team that drafted him) and Matthews would be long shots.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/kevin_mcgran/status/1210602656206663680

Nylander up with Tavares. I think that's the right call with Matthews and Marner together.

 

[ZBBM]

the most recent 1st overall pick to win a cup was Kane (2007)

That's amazing.

 

[Bender]

I know I've said this before but it really does blow my mind that the League didn't change anything after the Oilers' fiasco and with the Devils we could be looking at yet another team that gets 3 first overall picks in the span of less than 5 years.

That's not strictly true. They have changed the way the top few picks are awarded. So it's now only a 18.5% chance if you finished last and on average the last place team will pick 3rd.

While they haven't outlawed the possibility of multiple first overall picks happening for a team in a short span of years, I suspect any hard cap would open up a nasty can of worms considering potential unusual cases of failed picks, injury, trades, etc.

The other side note to this is if a team were to "hit" on multiple 1st overall picks, they'll very soon be in serious cap hell which is what happened to the Oilers. These days a 1st overall pick (that isn't a dud) is going to command $10M+ as of their 4th year in the league, so that window of opportunity is going to be very tight if they've sucked badly enough to nab that pick multiple times in a short number of years.

It would be nice to spread it around but there are some teams that seem to have done pretty well without a 1st overall pick...the most recent 1st overall pick to win a cup was Kane (2007), and of the other 12 players drafted since then I'd guess Stamkos and McKinnon are probably the two with the best chance of hoisting one in the near future, and maybe Tavares (not with the team that drafted him) and Matthews would be long shots.

You're always better off to have the best player on your team. You can trade them for multiple whatever guy who was drafted 5th. There is no way to spin having a worse prospect is beneficial vs a better prospect makes sense in any facet.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

https://twitter.com/kevin_mcgran/status/1210608060680552449

 

[bustaheims]

It would be nice to spread it around but there are some teams that seem to have done pretty well without a 1st overall pick...the most recent 1st overall pick to win a cup was Kane (2007), and of the other 12 players drafted since then I'd guess Stamkos and McKinnon are probably the two with the best chance of hoisting one in the near future, and maybe Tavares (not with the team that drafted him) and Matthews would be long shots.

7 of the last 11 Cup winners had their own #1 pick on the roster. 3 of 4 that didn?t had their own #2 overall pick on the roster (I?m counting S?guin for the Bruins - he was on the roster, even if he didn?t contribute in a significant way).

 

[Zee]

Hutchinson late Vezina push

 

[Kin]

While they haven't outlawed the possibility of multiple first overall picks happening for a team in a short span of years, I suspect any hard cap would open up a nasty can of worms considering potential unusual cases of failed picks, injury, trades, etc.

I think that if you're "missing" on picks to the extent that you could land three first overall picks in a short span that incompetence is a much more likely explanation than any of the above.

The other side note to this is if a team were to "hit" on multiple 1st overall picks, they'll very soon be in serious cap hell which is what happened to the Oilers. These days a 1st overall pick (that isn't a dud) is going to command $10M+ as of their 4th year in the league, so that window of opportunity is going to be very tight if they've sucked badly enough to nab that pick multiple times in a short number of years.

But likewise, if you're hitting on your top picks to any reasonable extent then the odds of getting more than one are pretty unlikely.

And again, this isn't me saying "If you've had 2 #1 picks in the last 5 years, you don't get to pick at all" but rather "If you've had 2 #1 picks in the last 5 years, maybe the highest you should pick is #2 or #3". It's really not that harsh of a penalty.

 

[Kin]

the most recent 1st overall pick to win a cup was Kane (2007)

That's amazing.

That has more to do with the Oilers' boobery and the Cup of late being won by teams with slightly older generational #1 overall picks like Washington and Pittsburgh.

 

[rdowdall]

While they haven't outlawed the possibility of multiple first overall picks happening for a team in a short span of years, I suspect any hard cap would open up a nasty can of worms considering potential unusual cases of failed picks, injury, trades, etc.

I think that if you're "missing" on picks to the extent that you could land three first overall picks in a short span that incompetence is a much more likely explanation than any of the above.

How does that factor in that not all draft classes are created equal though?  You may not get a game changer at 1st overall because there may not be one.  I would take McDavid, Eichel, and Marner before I took Hischier or Hughes.

 

[Kin]

How does that factor in that not all draft classes are created equal though?  You may not get a game changer at 1st overall because there may not be one.  I would take McDavid, Eichel, and Marner before I took Hischier or Hughes.

It doesn't factor that in but I don't think that you need a game changer to use a #1 pick to improve yourself or that being that bad for that long isn't about more than just who you take at #1. The fact that the Oilers "only" got guys like Hall or RNH with their #1 picks and not, say, other available guys there like Mark Scheifele or Seguin certainly was a factor in them being bad for so long but so was the fact that basically all of their picks outside of the 1st round were duds as well despite good players being available.

And again, you think Hischier was a so-so pick? Ok but guys like Makar and Pettersen were in that draft. Why should the Devils be rewarded for incompetence at team building compounded by making bad draft picks?

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/kevin_mcgran/status/1210602656206663680

Nylander up with Tavares. I think that's the right call with Matthews and Marner together.

Drool... but you know if Nylander lights it up to a 90 pt pace with Tavares we are going to hear about how Tavares really elevates his linemates.

Kapanen our of the top 6 will help everyone

 

[rdowdall]

How does that factor in that not all draft classes are created equal though?  You may not get a game changer at 1st overall because there may not be one.  I would take McDavid, Eichel, and Marner before I took Hischier or Hughes.

It doesn't factor that in but I don't think that you need a game changer to use a #1 pick to improve yourself or that being that bad for that long isn't about more than just who you take at #1. The fact that the Oilers "only" got guys like Hall or RNH with their #1 picks and not, say, other available guys there like Mark Scheifele or Seguin certainly was a factor in them being bad for so long but so was the fact that basically all of their picks outside of the 1st round were duds as well despite good players being available.

And again, you think Hischier was a so-so pick? Ok but guys like Makar and Pettersen were in that draft. Why should the Devils be rewarded for incompetence at team building compounded by making bad draft picks?

True, but that could come down to actually developing the prospect correctly, which means not having them in your lineup, which means they aren't making an impact for a year or so anyways.  That would mean that the team probably isn't making a significant move in the standings.  It's possible that if Makar or Pettersen had been taken first overall and placed in the league at 18 that they may not have been as successful as they are now.