Leafs Get Andersen from Ducks
- Thread starter WhatIfGodWasALeaf
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Potvin29 said:
Similarities?
Both highly regarded (around here you would have thought Raycroft invented the position, he was a Calder winner don'tcha know!!) but based on too small a sample size. Raycroft, if anything played more regularly that did Andersen.
Boston had already signed two goalies and Raycroft could have been had for a song, but the Leafs threw away whatever they could to get him. Similarly, now LL is saying the cost for Andersen does not matter. This time, knowing Anaheim had decided to re-sign Vatanan (sp approx.) and being fully aware that the Ducks had to move a goalie for cap and expansion deraft reasons, we again jumped in rather than be patient.
Like Raycroft, we trade then we sign long term, without any first hand experience as to whether he can shoulder 70 or so games per year.
In getting Raycroft, we decided that keeping our drafted goalie, Rask, was not good enough. This time, rather than drafting and developing a goalie we decided to trade for someone else's part-time goalie (in this respect it is more like Bernier and Toskala).
Finally, just as when Raycroft arrived as the Calder Cup laureate, the arrival of Andersen does not come at appoint in the rebuild where he will make any difference.
The idea is not to make it so that we finish fighting for one of the top non playoff spots but to rebuild with the best young talent we can get.
Sorry, but this is not a deal I would have made and most certainly not at this price and at tis time.
Heroic Shrimp
New member
To compare this trade to the Raycroft trade is like comparing the Brad Boyes signing to the David Clarkson signing. It's some serious disrespect to the abomination that the Raycroft trade was.
Highlander
Active member
Ya gotta put your faith in Lou and Crew. Brodeur and Cory have been pretty good choices for Lou. Keep da faith
GhostofPotvin29
New member
KW Sluggo said:
Raycroft had less NHL experience than Andersen does and was coming off of an injury and a terrible NHL season.
Are you trying to suggest dealing Rask is comparable to a 30th OV pick and a 2nd rounder? Andersen was not going to be waived as Raycroft supposedly was and there is no indication he could have been got for anything less than what was dealt for him, which again was not a high price.
This trade does not prevent them from drafting and developing their own goalie. In fact, many expect them to do just that.
And I don't know what "just as when Raycroft arrived as the Calder Cup laureate, the arrival of Andersen does not come at appoint in the rebuild where he will make any difference" - they weren't rebuilding when Raycroft arrived and he hadn't won the Calder Cup the year before so I don't know how then is similar to now.
Again the only real similarities are both are goalies acquired in trades by the Leafs.
Heroic Shrimp
New member
Calder Cup = AHL championship
Calder Trophy = NHL rookie of the year
Calder Trophy = NHL rookie of the year
bustaheims
Active member
KW Sluggo said:
22, and let's wait until he's got at a full season as a starter under his belt before we declare his playoff run as anything more than an anomaly.
Oh, and congratulations on identifying someone who isn't a counterpoint to the point you're addressing. Murray didn't make the NHL until the 4th season after his draft, and won't be a full-time starter until at least the 5th.
Sorry if this has been discussed in previous pages, but with now having over 9 million committed to goalies for the coming season, cap space is currently just over 7 million with only 3 defencemen included. This is not looking good in terms of making a Stamkos offer July 1.
Sure we are carrying a lot of dead weight and there are things that can be done to free up space, but I don't see any of these contracts to be easily movable via trade. JVR would be the only one, but I would really like to see what he can do alongside a guy like Matthews.
Sure we are carrying a lot of dead weight and there are things that can be done to free up space, but I don't see any of these contracts to be easily movable via trade. JVR would be the only one, but I would really like to see what he can do alongside a guy like Matthews.
herman
Well-known member
bustaheims said:
The Hamburgular also hasn't quite found his stride after a strong playoff run.
Andersen gives us time to draft and develop our own Matt Murray, while giving something consistent to backstop the parent club. Babcock has done more with arguably less in terms of goaltending (albeit with an all star cast up front).
Andersen is a bit of a later bloomer in that he skipped out his first draft year (Carolina?) and got picked up again by a team that drafts and develops goalies consistently above average in the cap era.
herman
Well-known member
My concerns:
Does Andersen flame out here like everyone that came after Belfour? Will the huge coaching difference make a difference?
Which other goalies fit the bill for us in this category? Looks like the other 1a/1b combos were all leaning towards protecting their younger goalies and their 1as were all on the older side (Fleury, Bishop).
Does 5/5 put us out of range of cap maneuverability?
Could we have made it through the upcoming season with just Bernier/Sparks? Or a cheapo backup? What costs would have arisen from that since it would be passed that expansion draft fear window?
Will Andersen's extra goals saved (sounds like it'll be about 6-10 goals? Depending on shots against), put us out of Liljegren range potential?
Does Andersen flame out here like everyone that came after Belfour? Will the huge coaching difference make a difference?
Which other goalies fit the bill for us in this category? Looks like the other 1a/1b combos were all leaning towards protecting their younger goalies and their 1as were all on the older side (Fleury, Bishop).
Does 5/5 put us out of range of cap maneuverability?
Could we have made it through the upcoming season with just Bernier/Sparks? Or a cheapo backup? What costs would have arisen from that since it would be passed that expansion draft fear window?
Will Andersen's extra goals saved (sounds like it'll be about 6-10 goals? Depending on shots against), put us out of Liljegren range potential?
WhatIfGodWasALeaf
Active member
I wanted to mention regarding the Robidas and Horton deals and the whole LTIR situation. I read elsewhere recently that there is a provision for another type of LTIR which basically allows the Leafs to operate without Robidas and Horton on the cap at all because they spent the entirety of the previous season on the LTIR.
It basically means that you can take both players off the Leafs salary figure for next season.
If Lupul starts the year on the LTIR he will still have the same cap impact as Horton and Robidas did last season.
It basically means that you can take both players off the Leafs salary figure for next season.
If Lupul starts the year on the LTIR he will still have the same cap impact as Horton and Robidas did last season.
mr grieves
New member
Great questions/concerns. I share several of these...
I don't think anything as spectacular as Toskala or Rask, but it's concerning that they've locked themselves in to a guy who's .918 over 125 games on a very good team, behind a very good defense. (I checked Toskala: .913 in 114 games). I don't think he'll flame out spectacularly, but I don't think they'll get anything (esp. after this season) that they couldn't've got cheaper some other way.
But, on the other hand, as much as committing dollars and term to a "good" goaltender doesn't seem very progressive a move, maybe the Leafs' vaunted analytics department has identified something in his game that means he's a sure shot.
While wrapping up work, I listened to the recent Mirtle-Siegel podcast. Mirtle suggests there are a lot of teams that'll be in a similar position who won't go this route (I remember him mentioning Colorado).
I also sort of think Reimer wouldn't've been a bad option. He only has one option to be a starter (Calgary), otherwise it's 1B or back-up. Given buyer's market, I think he could've been had for less than Andersen's hit and term and would've been a good stopgap.
Only for this summer, I think. Unless guys who most think are pretty hard to move fly off the books, or are somehow hidden away, there's no way they can sign Stamkos. And, if you aren't interested in Stamkos, who cares?
(I'm down to hoping Stamkos signs a 1 year deal with Tampa Bay for a last run at the Cup before TB's cap squeeze really hits... then he can come home when the Leafs cap situation is better and they're nearer to contending, not asking the player to waste a year of his prime on the team's year of development)
I think the answer to #1 is sure. Would the young players have demoralized by the odd bad goal? Maybe. Would their development have been ruined as a consequence? I doubt that.
To #2: I'm not at all clear on when the fear window shuts. Shouldn't the fear mount as the expansion draft nears?
Probably more than that if Bernier bounces back, no? I think getting Andersen means they're expecting to improve by 10 or so points this season. Assuming Liljegren is top 3, I'd guess they'll be needing more lotto luck.
herman said:
I don't think anything as spectacular as Toskala or Rask, but it's concerning that they've locked themselves in to a guy who's .918 over 125 games on a very good team, behind a very good defense. (I checked Toskala: .913 in 114 games). I don't think he'll flame out spectacularly, but I don't think they'll get anything (esp. after this season) that they couldn't've got cheaper some other way.
But, on the other hand, as much as committing dollars and term to a "good" goaltender doesn't seem very progressive a move, maybe the Leafs' vaunted analytics department has identified something in his game that means he's a sure shot.
herman said:
While wrapping up work, I listened to the recent Mirtle-Siegel podcast. Mirtle suggests there are a lot of teams that'll be in a similar position who won't go this route (I remember him mentioning Colorado).
I also sort of think Reimer wouldn't've been a bad option. He only has one option to be a starter (Calgary), otherwise it's 1B or back-up. Given buyer's market, I think he could've been had for less than Andersen's hit and term and would've been a good stopgap.
herman said:
Only for this summer, I think. Unless guys who most think are pretty hard to move fly off the books, or are somehow hidden away, there's no way they can sign Stamkos. And, if you aren't interested in Stamkos, who cares?
(I'm down to hoping Stamkos signs a 1 year deal with Tampa Bay for a last run at the Cup before TB's cap squeeze really hits... then he can come home when the Leafs cap situation is better and they're nearer to contending, not asking the player to waste a year of his prime on the team's year of development)
herman said:
I think the answer to #1 is sure. Would the young players have demoralized by the odd bad goal? Maybe. Would their development have been ruined as a consequence? I doubt that.
To #2: I'm not at all clear on when the fear window shuts. Shouldn't the fear mount as the expansion draft nears?
herman said:
Probably more than that if Bernier bounces back, no? I think getting Andersen means they're expecting to improve by 10 or so points this season. Assuming Liljegren is top 3, I'd guess they'll be needing more lotto luck.
Sarge said:
Welcome back. I'm new here and I'd like to offer some counterpoint.
All too familiar? Well yes. We traded for a goalie.
But none of this illusion of challenging one to outplay the other.
No pretending and posturing. Management has lost faith in Bernier. He wasn't this management's goalie, nor was Reimer. They've brought their vision of a goalie in after hordes of scouting and are making an educated decision and no hesitation about saying "he's our guy" going forward.
Reimer wasn't their guy. Bernier isn't their guy. Andersen is their guy, probably until they develop one better.
This strikes me as a management that is going to be super loyal to any player it selects as its core going forward.
So far, that's Kadri, Rielly and Andersen.
bustaheims
Active member
WhatIfGodWasALeaf said:
That was discussed and debunked in the Stamkos thread.
Kin
New member
herman said:
But that's what rings so false. Before this trade, whether in the goaltender options thread or the Stamkos one, how many people were seriously saying the Leafs didn't have the time to draft and develop a goalie? I specifically remember you liking a post I made where I argued the Leafs had all the time in the world if they wanted it. They were under no pressure to do anything.
And I know we can get hung up on best practices but I look at the teams who I'd like the Leafs to emulate and they sure didn't prioritize bringing in an average-above average goalie so that their top prospects would never be faced with having to play in front of not very goaltending. For the most part they made their picks and went with cheap mediocre veterans until their guys came along.
Yes, the players the Leafs are bringing in are young but they're not fragile. They can and will deal with setbacks and frustrations if they're going to be successful pros. If Andersen represented a massive sea change in the team's goaltending from Bernier that'd be one thing but the evidence we have doesn't seem to say he does.
hockeyfan1
New member
What the acquisition means and why it's important for the Maple Leafs:
The Leafs have become a more modern organization the past two years, one with a wealth of tools to evaluate all kinds of players, including goalies. There have been rumours for months they were chasing down various avenues to analyze goalies in new and promising ways, and we can safely assume they found something they liked and believed in on Andersen given they?ve committed to him as their No. 1 goalie until 2021.
Whatever they?ve found, the traditional statistics don?t really show it. Andersen has a .918 save percentage and ? typically more important ? a .926 save percentage at even strength, which is almost exactly where former Leaf James Reimer has sat the last three years.
Behind closed doors, however, NHL teams are starting to advance past these old standby stats. Some are employing huge resources and staff with a lot of letters after their names to crack the code on seemingly uncrackable questions like ?what data projects who becomes a great goalie??
One of the things the Leafs were believed to be looking into was finding a netminder who was a good fit in Babcock?s defensive system. Someone who could stop the kind of shots that his teams give up ? that sort of minutiae.
Presumably, Andersen was near the top of that list, at least among the goalies likely to be available between now and next summer?s expansion draft, when the NHL?s new Las Vegas team will likely have its pick of a few good young goalies.
Andersen also has some indirect ties to the Leafs organization through goalie coach Steve Briere, who is a proponent of Lyle Mast?s head trajectory technique, which has helped several goalies in recent years, including Devan Dubnyk, Reimer and Andersen.
"I rather not get into what the circumstances were that went into it,? Lamoriello said. ?We are just delighted that we were able to combine the acquisition as well as the commitment that he?s given to us and we?ve given to him."
...Andersen...has a lot going for him ? size, work ethic, personality...
He wants to be great,? said one of Andersen?s many friends in the goaltending world. ?And looks for ways to get there."
Whatever the outcome, this is one trade and one contract that will go a long way toward defining Brendan Shanahan?s time in charge.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/why-the-leafs-25-million-bet-on-frederik-andersen-is-so-important/article30536142/
The Leafs have become a more modern organization the past two years, one with a wealth of tools to evaluate all kinds of players, including goalies. There have been rumours for months they were chasing down various avenues to analyze goalies in new and promising ways, and we can safely assume they found something they liked and believed in on Andersen given they?ve committed to him as their No. 1 goalie until 2021.
Whatever they?ve found, the traditional statistics don?t really show it. Andersen has a .918 save percentage and ? typically more important ? a .926 save percentage at even strength, which is almost exactly where former Leaf James Reimer has sat the last three years.
Behind closed doors, however, NHL teams are starting to advance past these old standby stats. Some are employing huge resources and staff with a lot of letters after their names to crack the code on seemingly uncrackable questions like ?what data projects who becomes a great goalie??
One of the things the Leafs were believed to be looking into was finding a netminder who was a good fit in Babcock?s defensive system. Someone who could stop the kind of shots that his teams give up ? that sort of minutiae.
Presumably, Andersen was near the top of that list, at least among the goalies likely to be available between now and next summer?s expansion draft, when the NHL?s new Las Vegas team will likely have its pick of a few good young goalies.
Andersen also has some indirect ties to the Leafs organization through goalie coach Steve Briere, who is a proponent of Lyle Mast?s head trajectory technique, which has helped several goalies in recent years, including Devan Dubnyk, Reimer and Andersen.
"I rather not get into what the circumstances were that went into it,? Lamoriello said. ?We are just delighted that we were able to combine the acquisition as well as the commitment that he?s given to us and we?ve given to him."
...Andersen...has a lot going for him ? size, work ethic, personality...
He wants to be great,? said one of Andersen?s many friends in the goaltending world. ?And looks for ways to get there."
Whatever the outcome, this is one trade and one contract that will go a long way toward defining Brendan Shanahan?s time in charge.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/why-the-leafs-25-million-bet-on-frederik-andersen-is-so-important/article30536142/
Heroic Shrimp
New member
Like many or most here, I'm also surprised at the timing of this trade. It's a trade I would have expected maybe one or two years from now. But if I want to argue it from the Leafs' management perspective, I'd put it this way:
There are many players on every hockey team, but only a single #1 goalie (assuming a team even has one). It's a tough position to predict long-term consistent success in. And beyond that, drafting a goalie is very often a significant roll of the dice because of how late they develop. With an expansion draft coming up, teams will almost certainly protect either their well-established high-end goalie or the promising young guy who looks to be a solid #1 for many years to come. While the expansion draft will certainly make goalies available both now and next year, I think the likelihood of landing a young, emerging #1 is pretty low. And not only are those guys unlikely to be available now, they're not going to be any more available next year, and their teams are still likely to be going forward with them the year after that when they don't have the pressure of expansion. So while I think goalies are available on the market now and next year, I don't think there's going to be any great quality in a young package that the Leafs would obviously be most interested in.
Looking forward, I think Andersen might end up being the best short and long-term goalie option available in the next 2 or 3 years, and I think the Leafs may have figured that, too. I think they'd have preferred to make an equivalent deal in a year or two on a slightly younger goalie, but weren't sure that an equivalent/better and younger player would be available. He's not as young as you might like, and less established than you might like, but he has the potential to grow into the role for the Leafs as they climb the standings.
I'm not thrilled with the trade, but I might learn to like it as things play out over the next few years.
There are many players on every hockey team, but only a single #1 goalie (assuming a team even has one). It's a tough position to predict long-term consistent success in. And beyond that, drafting a goalie is very often a significant roll of the dice because of how late they develop. With an expansion draft coming up, teams will almost certainly protect either their well-established high-end goalie or the promising young guy who looks to be a solid #1 for many years to come. While the expansion draft will certainly make goalies available both now and next year, I think the likelihood of landing a young, emerging #1 is pretty low. And not only are those guys unlikely to be available now, they're not going to be any more available next year, and their teams are still likely to be going forward with them the year after that when they don't have the pressure of expansion. So while I think goalies are available on the market now and next year, I don't think there's going to be any great quality in a young package that the Leafs would obviously be most interested in.
Looking forward, I think Andersen might end up being the best short and long-term goalie option available in the next 2 or 3 years, and I think the Leafs may have figured that, too. I think they'd have preferred to make an equivalent deal in a year or two on a slightly younger goalie, but weren't sure that an equivalent/better and younger player would be available. He's not as young as you might like, and less established than you might like, but he has the potential to grow into the role for the Leafs as they climb the standings.
I'm not thrilled with the trade, but I might learn to like it as things play out over the next few years.