Leafs @ Penguins - Dec. 30th, 7:00pm - SN, Fan 590

[Joe S.]

October: 1-7-2, 4 points, .200 PT%
November: 7-4-3, 17 points, .607 PT%
December: 6-4-2, 14 points, .583 PT%

For the last two months the Leafs have played at a .596 PT% pace.  That would be a 98 point season.

Hard to argue Babcock isn't getting more out of this team than their skill level would indicate, even if they are still near the bottom of the standings.

If this team finishes at .500 Babcock deserves coach of the year.

 

[bustaheims]

October: 1-7-2, 4 points, .200 PT%
November: 7-4-3, 17 points, .607 PT%
December: 6-4-2, 14 points, .583 PT%

For the last two months the Leafs have played at a .596 PT% pace.  That would be a 98 point season.

There are some signs that their pace will slow a little, though. Over this stretch, the PP has been producing at almost 25% efficiency. That's almost certainly unsustainable, and should drop into the 18-20% range - so, a dip in the offensive production seems likely. Their schedule also sees them playing a lot more Eastern Conference teams, against whom, their record isn't very good so far. 5 wins in 21 games, with 3 of those wins coming via shootout. Their ES possession is hovering around 50%. That feels like where they'll probably end up. With a team with an average talent level, that's a 92-95 point team (which is the new .500 thanks to OTL points and the shootout), but, as we know, the Leafs aren't quite an average talented team. Also, while I expect Bernier's performance level to improve a bit from what we've seen of him this season, I also expect Reimer's to drop off. That may end up evening out, but the disparity in performances has lead to some of the results - they've won when their goaltending has been really good. They've struggled when it's been average or worse (not exactly rocket science, I know). If both goalies start putting in more average performances the rest of the the way, that will also lead to more losses. Combine all that with moving veterans off the roster approaching the deadline, and, well . . . it feels pretty likely the team's success rate will drop off and they'll settle in nicely as a bottom 5 team. I mean, even with this run, they're barely on the outside right now - they're 6th last, on a less than .001 P% pace higher than the team behind them.

 

[Bender]

Besides the PP I think they  mentioned that they are the highest scoring team for the month of December. There is absolutely no way that trend continues. It technically COULD continue but I see that as highly unlikely.

 

[Kin]

Another thing to keep in mind is that we've all sort of assumed that at the deadline the guys to be dealt would be Polak, Boyes, Grabner, etc.

Now, though, I think we need to consider that players like Phaneuf/Bozak/Komarov could very well be in play. This team might be very depleted post-deadline.

 

[bustaheims]

Besides the PP I think they  mentioned that they are the highest scoring team for the month of December. There is absolutely no way that trend continues. It technically COULD continue but I see that as highly unlikely.

Yeah, though that's at least in part due to their success on the PP. Their overall offensive pace will slow. Their ES pace may not - and it's still not great.

 

[bustaheims]

Another thing to keep in mind is that we've all sort of assumed that at the deadline the guys to be dealt would be Polak, Boyes, Grabner, etc.

Now, though, I think we need to consider that players like Phaneuf/Bozak/Komarov could very well be in play. This team might be very depleted post-deadline.

Yeah. It wouldn't surprise me if at least one longer term contract is moved at the deadline - most likely Komarov, I think - and possibly more. That could definitely have a significant impact, both in terms of on-ice production and in the team's morale/motivation.

 

[Bullfrog]

Gunnarsson will be off the books, but unfortunately still two more years of retained salary on Gleason (and of course six more on Kessel.)

I suspect Komarov will be an attractive piece at the deadline. Bozak too.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Gunnarsson will be off the books, but unfortunately still two more years of retained salary on Gleason (and of course six more on Kessel.)

I suspect Komarov will be an attractive piece at the deadline. Bozak too.

Gleason is easily the one that frustrates me the most.