The problem as I see it is that the Leafs are still pretty thin up front and/or have key players with question marks attached to them.
Connolly hasn't played a full season in almost a decade. I'd bet heavily that he doesn't suddenly play 82 games, at age 30, considering his injury history. The same goes for Lupul, his last 20 games of excellent play notwithstanding.
Will Komisarek get his head out of his ass? Will Phaneuf play well for the entire season this time? Faceoffs might be an issue as I don't see anyone on the team, other than Bozak, who has a history of being any good at them.
You also have to factor in regression from a key player. I know we all want to think that each player will improve but pretty much every team, in every sport, will have regression from a key player each season. With the Leafs being so young, and not that deep IMO, that could cripple them. For example, an "off" season from Kessel would pretty much eliminate any hope for the playoffs.
Hopefully Reimer is the real deal and doesn't suffer the dreaded sophomore jinx. It's been too long since the Leafs had above average goaltending. If I am not mistaken, they have been in the bottom 7 teams in GA every year since the lockout. So if Reimer plays like he did last season, that would make a huge difference.
Put a gun to my head and force me to predict and I say they don't make the playoffs. Their margin of error is so small and too many things have to go right IMO. Hopefully I'm wrong and it's the Leafs who are the league's "surprise team" for a change.
It would be nice to know what the playoffs are like again.