Maple Leafs are better, but are they a playoff team?

[Zee]

Is Franson back to playing the right side now?  I remember they wanted him to change sides to accommodate Komisarek before but now that Komisarek is injured I guess he can play his natural side.  I like the look of the Leafs D far better with Franson in now, I know Komisarek wasn't playing badly this season, but I'd rather not have him back at this point.

 

[L K]

Is Franson back to playing the right side now?  I remember they wanted him to change sides to accommodate Komisarek before but now that Komisarek is injured I guess he can play his natural side.  I like the look of the Leafs D far better with Franson in now, I know Komisarek wasn't playing badly this season, but I'd rather not have him back at this point.

Franson plays defense quite well I thought.  He's kind of like Hal Gill in that he doesn't ever actually use his size to hit guys, and he probably plays defensively more like Kaberle in terms of being a guy who gets in relatively good position but is never going to be a great defensive defenseman, but he actually has offensive game.  He's pretty solid on the point, one of the better defensemen at keeping the puck in the offensive zone on those tight plays at the blueline because of his reach.

I'm certainly impressed with him...and glad that Burke didn't trade him.

 

[Zee]

Is Franson back to playing the right side now?  I remember they wanted him to change sides to accommodate Komisarek before but now that Komisarek is injured I guess he can play his natural side.  I like the look of the Leafs D far better with Franson in now, I know Komisarek wasn't playing badly this season, but I'd rather not have him back at this point.

Franson plays defense quite well I thought.  He's kind of like Hal Gill in that he doesn't ever actually use his size to hit guys, and he probably plays defensively more like Kaberle in terms of being a guy who gets in relatively good position but is never going to be a great defensive defenseman, but he actually has offensive game.  He's pretty solid on the point, one of the better defensemen at keeping the puck in the offensive zone on those tight plays at the blueline because of his reach.

I'm certainly impressed with him...and glad that Burke didn't trade him.

This is my point, he's no worse defensively than Komisarek but he has far more upside on the offense than Komisarek does.  I really like the additions of both Liles and Franson to the D this year.  We can actually roll our D pairings without worrying too much.

 

[groundskeeper willie]

This is my point, he's no worse defensively than Komisarek but he has far more upside on the offense than Komisarek does.  I really like the additions of both Liles and Franson to the D this year.  We can actually roll our D pairings without worrying too much.

It's just mind-boggling when you look at the Leafs defence and think of the trades Burke made to build that group. Phaneuf, Gardiner, Liles, and Franson were all stolen in trades as lopsided as you are ever going to see in today's NHL.

 

[Zee]

This is my point, he's no worse defensively than Komisarek but he has far more upside on the offense than Komisarek does.  I really like the additions of both Liles and Franson to the D this year.  We can actually roll our D pairings without worrying too much.

It's just mind-boggling when you look at the Leafs defence and think of the trades Burke made to build that group. Phaneuf, Gardiner, Liles, and Franson were all stolen in trades as lopsided as you are ever going to see in today's NHL.

Not to mention Aulie waiting in the wings.

 

[Crucialness Key]

This is my point, he's no worse defensively than Komisarek but he has far more upside on the offense than Komisarek does.  I really like the additions of both Liles and Franson to the D this year.  We can actually roll our D pairings without worrying too much.

It's just mind-boggling when you look at the Leafs defence and think of the trades Burke made to build that group. Phaneuf, Gardiner, Liles, and Franson were all stolen in trades as lopsided as you are ever going to see in today's NHL.

Not to mention Aulie waiting in the wings.

What the hell's he doing over there when he should be clearing the front of the net?  No wonder he's with the Marlies. 

 

[freer]

From what I have seen from Aulie on the Marlies, he will be down there for awhile cause he is not playing good at all. That being said I hope he does get back up to the big team. He played well last season with Dion

 

[Tigger]

He was hurt earlier, no?

 

[Zee]

From what I have seen from Aulie on the Marlies, he will be down there for awhile cause he is not playing good at all. That being said I hope he does get back up to the big team. He played well last season with Dion

0 points and -10 in 14 games played, by far worst of the D for stats anyway.

 

[Bender]

What a pinch we're in the East! We've gotta let this play out and let a few teams play their games in hand. I don't remember it being so volatile, but I guess that's also because the Leafs haven't been this successful early on in a while

 

[Madferret]

At this point every team in the East minus the Islanders is in the playoff hunt.

 

[cw]

This always helps me to sort out games in hand:
Rk  Team            Pts Win%
1 BOSTON              0.650
2 PHILADELPHIA      0.643
3 FLORIDA              0.643
4 NY RANGERS        0.639
5 PITTSBURGH        0.636
6 WASHINGTON      0.625
7 BUFFALO            0.595
8 TORONTO            0.591
9 NEW JERSEY        0.575
10 OTTAWA            0.524
11 MONTREAL        0.523
12 TAMPA BAY        0.500
13 WINNIPEG          0.476
14 CAROLINA          0.435
15 NY ISLANDERS  0.368

 

[bustaheims]

At this point every team in the East minus the Islanders is in the playoff hunt.

Carolina's well on their way to being out of it, as well. They've played more games than anyone else and are only ahead of the Islanders. If teams like the Rangers, the Devils, Habs and even your sens go .500 in their games in hand, the Canes would have a pretty steep hole to try to dig themselves out of.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

Well, historically being in the playoffs at this point in the season is a good thing: http://www.thestar.com/sports/leafs/article/1091918--can-leafs-start-printing-playoff-tickets-past-history-says-yes?bn=1

 

[Chev-boyar-sky]

Well, historically being in the playoffs at this point in the season is a good thing: http://www.thestar.com/sports/leafs/article/1091918--can-leafs-start-printing-playoff-tickets-past-history-says-yes?bn=1

Having more points gives you a better chance of success? Who'd have thunk?

 

[cw]

Well, historically being in the playoffs at this point in the season is a good thing: http://www.thestar.com/sports/leafs/article/1091918--can-leafs-start-printing-playoff-tickets-past-history-says-yes?bn=1

The article might be a little misleading. Of the 77% that go on to make it, I'll bet the teams at the top of the standings are much closer to 100% or high 90%s that get in and the bubble teams (where the Leafs are) have a lower percentage.

But given what we've experienced the past few seasons, I'm sure not complaining. They have the best shot they've had in some time to play in the spring.

60.2% chance here:
http://www.hockey-reference.com/friv/playoff_prob.cgi

54.1% chance here:
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL.html

 

[Redleaf]

This always helps me to sort out games in hand:
Rk  Team            Pts Win%
1 BOSTON              0.650
2 PHILADELPHIA      0.643
3 FLORIDA              0.643
4 NY RANGERS        0.639
5 PITTSBURGH        0.636
6 WASHINGTON      0.625
7 BUFFALO            0.595
8 TORONTO            0.591
9 NEW JERSEY        0.575
10 OTTAWA            0.524
11 MONTREAL        0.523
12 TAMPA BAY        0.500
13 WINNIPEG          0.476
14 CAROLINA          0.435
15 NY ISLANDERS  0.368

Things are actually looking up from here. I think those numbers can only improve once the troops start coming off the IR. Reimer coming back soon should help improve the winning percentage alone. Its fun to be a Leaf fan once again. Hopefully we'll be watching some Leaf playoff hockey come April.

 

[Zee]

This always helps me to sort out games in hand:
Rk  Team            Pts Win%
1 BOSTON              0.650
2 PHILADELPHIA      0.643
3 FLORIDA              0.643
4 NY RANGERS        0.639
5 PITTSBURGH        0.636
6 WASHINGTON      0.625
7 BUFFALO            0.595
8 TORONTO            0.591
9 NEW JERSEY        0.575
10 OTTAWA            0.524
11 MONTREAL        0.523
12 TAMPA BAY        0.500
13 WINNIPEG          0.476
14 CAROLINA          0.435
15 NY ISLANDERS  0.368

Things are actually looking up from here. I think those numbers can only improve once the troops start coming off the IR. Reimer coming back soon should help improve the winning percentage alone. Its fun to be a Leaf fan once again. Hopefully we'll be watching some Leaf playoff hockey come April.

It's been so long since I've seen a Leafs playoff game I forgot how exciting they can be.  Man I hope this is the season.

 

[Corn Flake]

Well, historically being in the playoffs at this point in the season is a good thing: http://www.thestar.com/sports/leafs/article/1091918--can-leafs-start-printing-playoff-tickets-past-history-says-yes?bn=1

Having more points gives you a better chance of success? Who'd have thunk?

They went back to 1993 in that study, but I believe post-lockout the stats are significantly higher than 77.3% for teams who are in at the quarter pole to be there in April.  The 3-point game is primarily the cause of that.

I think last year only 1 team in the East made it in that wasn't in at the 20-game mark.  Rangers or Buffalo.. can't remember which.  Atlanta was the team who fell out of the playoffs.

This year might be a bit different though, given how many teams are so close in points.  Last year in the East, the Leafs, Isles and Devils were already way out of it and getting pounded on.  This year in the East, 12 teams are at .500 or better, and really only the Islanders are cannon fodder. 

 

[cw]

They went back to 1993 in that study, but I believe post-lockout the stats are significantly higher than 77.3% for teams who are in at the quarter pole to be there in April.  The 3-point game is primarily the cause of that.

According to the study:

link
The extra point ? introduced for overtime losses in the 1999-2000 season ? changed very little statistically. In the five seasons before the extra point was introduced, 63 of 80 playoff teams (78.8 per cent) were in a playoff spot. In the five years afterwards, 61 of 80 (76.3 per cent) were in the same spot.

New rules introduced after the lockout ? including the introduction of the shootout ? also changed little. In the five years since the lockout, 62 of 80 of playoff teams (77.5 per cent) were in a playoff spot by the fourth Thursday of November.

1.3% difference doesn't seem statistically significant to me to conclude much. But we're not looking at a lot of seasons either. I'm not sure there's enough data to conclude one way or the other.

It could go either way. It might keep the pack of bubble teams larger and tighter together allowing one a better chance to get in. Or it might make it tougher for a bubble team to pass a team. Maybe both those factors are going on and offset some. I'm not sure.