Maple Leafs are better, but are they a playoff team?

[L K]

They are good enough to be a playoff team if Reimer picks up where he left off. 

Problems - offense from the blueline.  20-30 games from Phaneuf doesn't have me convinced that he's back just yet.  Liles will help but his second half was unbelievably bad.

Up the middle - it's small and injury prone.

Defense - Kessel doesn't know what it is, you need your top line to be at least competent in their own zone if you don't have the kind of offensive ability to dominate.

 

[cw]

As we all know, the team didn't do well in Nov & Dec 2010.

If we only look at what was done in the past couple of weeks and try to equate that to the record they put up last season, I think that overlooks important changes that were made during the second half of last season.

Changes or Pending Changes Over the Last Six Months (roughly):

Forwards
Lupul replaced Versteeg
Connolly replaces Bozak on top line
Bozak replaces Brent on 3rd line
Kadri? replaces Sjostrom on 3rd line
Good sized 4th line center intended to replace Zigomanis/Boyce (says Ass't GM Loiselle)
TBD Winger to replace Mitchell on 4th line/depth spot
TBD Winger to fill 14th forward spot that Finger held on opening day

Defence
Aulie replaced Beauchemin
Liles replaces Kaberle
Franson replaces Lebda (& maybe Komisarek on depth chart)

Goal
Reimer replaced Giguere

Coaching
Greg Cronin & Scott Gordon replace Acton & Hunter

Front Office
Rick Dudley joins staff

Now I'm not jumping up and down claiming it's an incredible turnover. But I do feel the talent added and to be added should distance itself from the roster that had them near the basement in Dec 2010. And those changes were material enough last season to produce some pretty good results after the all star break. We've seen surges for the playoffs before but my sense, starting with Reimer, was this one looked a little different to me and I expect it to carry over at least to some extent into this season.

When I look at the above, I'm struggling with the suggestion that Burke hasn't done much. In spite of a lousy trade market during the year under the cap system and in spite of a horrible UFA market this summer, he has effected a number of what look like promising changes to the NHL roster and improved the prospect system significantly that provides this NHL roster with better quality depth.

 

[Kin]

I look at that list, cw, and I think what I keep coming back to is that while there's a lot of things there, there's not much there I'm terribly confident will lead to an improved Maple Leafs team next year. Connolly should be better than Bozak, Reimer should be better than Giguere. Even there though, you're counting on Connolly being healthy and Reimer not slumping.

So has Burke made some moves? Yes. Do they have the organization stronger? Probably. Will they leave the 11-12 Leafs better than the 10-11 Leafs? I remain cautiously optimistic or, on some days, optimistically cautious.

 

[ZBBM]

I look at that list, cw, and I think what I keep coming back to is that while there's a lot of things there, there's not much there I'm terribly confident will lead to an improved Maple Leafs team next year. Connolly should be better than Bozak, Reimer should be better than Giguere. Even there though, you're counting on Connolly being healthy and Reimer not slumping.

So has Burke made some moves? Yes. Do they have the organization stronger? Probably. Will they leave the 11-12 Leafs better than the 10-11 Leafs? I remain cautiously optimistic or, on some days, optimistically cautious.

I pretty much agree.  All these moves make the Leafs more than marginally better -- but only if everything goes right.  Injuries to key players, backsliding by Grabs/Kuli, etc., -- those happen, and we are quickly back to major struggling.

 

[maplesyrup]

I look at that list, cw, and I think what I keep coming back to is that while there's a lot of things there, there's not much there I'm terribly confident will lead to an improved Maple Leafs team next year. Connolly should be better than Bozak, Reimer should be better than Giguere. Even there though, you're counting on Connolly being healthy and Reimer not slumping.

So has Burke made some moves? Yes. Do they have the organization stronger? Probably. Will they leave the 11-12 Leafs better than the 10-11 Leafs? I remain cautiously optimistic or, on some days, optimistically cautious.

I pretty much agree.  All these moves make the Leafs more than marginally better -- but only if everything goes right.  Injuries to key players, backsliding by Grabs/Kuli, etc., -- those happen, and we are quickly back to major struggling.

Me too. Evey single upgrade can be classified as marginal, I think...  save for maybe Reimer over Giguere but again, I'm very weary of the sophomore slump.

 

[Bender]

I look at that list, cw, and I think what I keep coming back to is that while there's a lot of things there, there's not much there I'm terribly confident will lead to an improved Maple Leafs team next year. Connolly should be better than Bozak, Reimer should be better than Giguere. Even there though, you're counting on Connolly being healthy and Reimer not slumping.

So has Burke made some moves? Yes. Do they have the organization stronger? Probably. Will they leave the 11-12 Leafs better than the 10-11 Leafs? I remain cautiously optimistic or, on some days, optimistically cautious.

I pretty much agree.  All these moves make the Leafs more than marginally better -- but only if everything goes right.  Injuries to key players, backsliding by Grabs/Kuli, etc., -- those happen, and we are quickly back to major struggling.

Me too. Evey single upgrade can be classified as marginal, I think...  save for maybe Reimer over Giguere but again, I'm very weary of the sophomore slump.

I don't know if I would call Connolly a marginal upgrade over Bozak. I don't know if I would call Franson a marginal upgrade over Lebda. Nevermind coaching changes that will likely have some effect on the players.

And I think he meant to say that the upgrade are marginal only if there are injuries to key players like Connolly, Reimer, Phaneuf. In which case he is probably right. Although this isn't just the Leafs - enough injuries could derail even the deepest team. But I think for once we're starting to see enough prospect depth that I think we could possibly tread water if a few injuries strike.

 

[moon111]

I keep having a problem thinking of Kessel's line as the #1.  Clearly think Grabs is the top choice.
Although I also think Brown's skating can keep up with a top-6 line, can go to the net, protect
his smaller linemates, could even one-time a few on his off-wing.  If it worked, Leafs would have three
solid lines that could score. 
MacArthur/Grabs/Kulemin
Brown/Connolly/Kessel
Lupul/Bozak/Armstrong
Dupuis/Ziggy/Orr

 

[maplesyrup]

I look at that list, cw, and I think what I keep coming back to is that while there's a lot of things there, there's not much there I'm terribly confident will lead to an improved Maple Leafs team next year. Connolly should be better than Bozak, Reimer should be better than Giguere. Even there though, you're counting on Connolly being healthy and Reimer not slumping.

So has Burke made some moves? Yes. Do they have the organization stronger? Probably. Will they leave the 11-12 Leafs better than the 10-11 Leafs? I remain cautiously optimistic or, on some days, optimistically cautious.

I pretty much agree.  All these moves make the Leafs more than marginally better -- but only if everything goes right.  Injuries to key players, backsliding by Grabs/Kuli, etc., -- those happen, and we are quickly back to major struggling.

Me too. Evey single upgrade can be classified as marginal, I think...  save for maybe Reimer over Giguere but again, I'm very weary of the sophomore slump.

I don't know if I would call Connolly a marginal upgrade over Bozak. I don't know if I would call Franson a marginal upgrade over Lebda. Nevermind coaching changes that will likely have some effect on the players.

And I think he meant to say that the upgrade are marginal only if there are injuries to key players like Connolly, Reimer, Phaneuf. In which case he is probably right. Although this isn't just the Leafs - enough injuries could derail even the deepest team. But I think for once we're starting to see enough prospect depth that I think we could possibly tread water if a few injuries strike.

If Connolly playes his career average number of games, I don't see much improvment over Bozak at all (if any) and pretty much any NHL defensmen represents an improvment over Lebda so I guess you've got me there. Sure, the upgrades cw points out are just that -  upgrades and I'm happy about it but I don't think any single upgrade (or the collection of them) gets us to the dance outside of maybe Reimer who (as I pointed out) could wind up very Gigureish if history repeats.

 

[hockeyfan1]

ARE the Leafs a playoff team?  WILL they be better?  It all depends on several factors beginning with the players themselves, how they perform and whether they can stave off long-term injuries.  Players that come to mind here are the Connollys and the Gustavvsons, not to mention any other important forward or d-man (I'm thinking along the Grabovski/MacArthur type, and the Schenn/Aulie type).

Secondly, other factors that come into play, one would have to be how well the team adapts/adopts Wilson's system and how consistent they will be in maintaining some sense of 'equilibrium' in their play, and whether Ron Wilson & his assistants can actually put forward a winning system, overall.  This would include how well the team kills penalties (special teams), their offensive & defensive prowess with and without the puck, deft puckhandling in the backend, good strong lines not necessarily producing on all fronts, but, nevertheless playing consistently game in game out, etc., etc.

Thirdly, and this I dub one of the most important one, which is, can the Leafs sustain a reasonably good first -half (season) and maintain the pace for the second-half, in a legitimate bid for a playoff spot, be it any playoff spot?  Or, will they have a miserable first-half, a repeat of last season's first-half, and then (just like last season), produce a respectable second-half? 

With plenty of competition to be expected this year in the Eastern Conference from teams such as the Jets, Islanders, Devils, and yes, even the Panthers, the Leafs can ill afford to repeat the dismal production of their first-half.  It's going to be tough, but the Leafs have their work cut out for them.

 

[cw]

I look at that list, cw, and I think what I keep coming back to is that while there's a lot of things there, there's not much there I'm terribly confident will lead to an improved Maple Leafs team next year. Connolly should be better than Bozak, Reimer should be better than Giguere. Even there though, you're counting on Connolly being healthy and Reimer not slumping.

So has Burke made some moves? Yes. Do they have the organization stronger? Probably. Will they leave the 11-12 Leafs better than the 10-11 Leafs? I remain cautiously optimistic or, on some days, optimistically cautious.

Overall, I'm close to the same place. I saw you project the team finishing between 7th-13th? - around there. That's about where I have them. I think they've improved but look like they're still in tough to make the playoffs - so it's not mind boggling improvement. The prospect system improved more. Part of the problem with the struggle they'll have is that I think a number of teams also improved in the East.

Having said that, I think Lupul is a better top 6 forward than Versteeg/Crabb for this group based upon his play last year. He goes to the net some, seems to know his way around the defensive zone better and struck me as more of a team player. Connolly should be better than Bozak offensively and defensively for the top line - even if we only get his average 60GP.

I think the 3rd line will be better as I had little use for Sjostrum there - they need some scoring from that line. Kadri, Frattin or Caputi - whichever kid wins that job all look like upgrades to me there because while maybe giving up a little defence, they can overcome that with contributing some offence. If the line is intended to score some, and I think it is, Bozak with his offence, his good faceoff% and his PK with Armstrong has a decent shot at replacing Brent adequately and maybe then some.

I think we're rushing judgement on the 4th line that is incomplete with stated intentions by management to improve it with a 4th line center between now and the start of the season.

Overall, I think the forwards will have improved more than marginally compared with Oct-Dec 2010.

Reimer could step back some but as badly as Giguere's groin last year? I have my doubts. I think he's likely to remain a significant improvement. If Gustavsson falters, I think Ben Scrivens might surprise a few folks. Or less likely, maybe Rynnas blossoms. Out of the three well regarded goalie 'prospects', with an AHL season/NHL season now under their belt, one has a good shot to step forward - something like we saw Reimer do last season. And I think that's a common theme throughout this team: they're young with some upside and they have a pool of kids on the Marlies at every position likely to improve and they may well wind up helping. With an older roster, we're closer to WYSIWYG.

My biggest concern is with the defence. For next season, I don't honestly know if the D talent is better, worse or about the same - which has to be some sort of a concern. In a couple of years, as the young guys get experience, they'll probably look more appealing to me.

At the start of the season last year, this team was pretty good defensively (roughly top 10 in the NHL). The problem was, as we anticipated last summer, they couldn't score. Defence was sacrificed to try to get some offence and the team spiraled into trouble from there and didn't settle down until trades got made and Reimer took the starting job.

There are only a few ways to improve a team's talent:
- trades of roster talent for roster talent that one team is lucky enough to win but most often, neither team is dramatically ahead as both trade roughly equivalent talent value
- trades where one mortgages the future trading prospects & picks for a roster player - a dumb move for the retooling Leafs right now
- drafting and development - without drafting franchises studs, it takes time as we're experiencing
- free agents

Burke had no Steve Stamkos' coming in the draft. I generally liked his trades but he wasn't lucky enough to win them so incredibly that they turned into a sure thing for the playoffs. He wasn't really trying to. He cut his losses and picked up prospects last season - and didn't mortgage the future. So the only way Burke could really upgrade this club significantly was on the UFA market - talent for no talent cost.

Top UFA talent was Richards and then a real drop off. You and I both hoped the 3/4 lines could get an upgrade but the prices for those guys with teams trying to hit the cap floor struck me and many as crazy. I'm glad Burke didn't get stupid and make a big mistake. I was critical of him last year for failing to improve the 3/4 lines when there were players to be had at reasonable prices and terms but this year, I couldn't find nearly as much fault because of the types of deals that were being handed out. We can whine about that until the cows come home but I don't hold the terrible UFA market against Burke. It's not like this team had a Cup shot and he had to do something drastic to try to push them over the top.

I think we largely agree on this team's overall playoff chances. But when we get down to the details, we probably look at it differently. I think the last six months have been pretty good for this franchise of talent.

 

[Bender]

I look at that list, cw, and I think what I keep coming back to is that while there's a lot of things there, there's not much there I'm terribly confident will lead to an improved Maple Leafs team next year. Connolly should be better than Bozak, Reimer should be better than Giguere. Even there though, you're counting on Connolly being healthy and Reimer not slumping.

So has Burke made some moves? Yes. Do they have the organization stronger? Probably. Will they leave the 11-12 Leafs better than the 10-11 Leafs? I remain cautiously optimistic or, on some days, optimistically cautious.

I pretty much agree.  All these moves make the Leafs more than marginally better -- but only if everything goes right.  Injuries to key players, backsliding by Grabs/Kuli, etc., -- those happen, and we are quickly back to major struggling.

Me too. Evey single upgrade can be classified as marginal, I think...  save for maybe Reimer over Giguere but again, I'm very weary of the sophomore slump.

I don't know if I would call Connolly a marginal upgrade over Bozak. I don't know if I would call Franson a marginal upgrade over Lebda. Nevermind coaching changes that will likely have some effect on the players.

And I think he meant to say that the upgrade are marginal only if there are injuries to key players like Connolly, Reimer, Phaneuf. In which case he is probably right. Although this isn't just the Leafs - enough injuries could derail even the deepest team. But I think for once we're starting to see enough prospect depth that I think we could possibly tread water if a few injuries strike.

If Connolly playes his career average number of games, I don't see much improvment over Bozak at all (if any) and pretty much any NHL defensmen represents an improvment over Lebda so I guess you've got me there. Sure, the upgrades cw points out are just that -  upgrades and I'm happy about it but I don't think any single upgrade (or the collection of them) gets us to the dance outside of maybe Reimer who (as I pointed out) could wind up very Gigureish if history repeats.

You're just being a negative Nancy now. Connolly is the closest thing we've had in terms of a #1 Centre in half a decade. Injuries aside, his skill is far superior to Bozak. So, again, all things being equal, and he manages to play 60-70 games I am 100% confident that we'll see at least 45-50pts out of him. Already this is a big jump from Bozak's putrid output last year. I also can't imagine a +/- in the -20s. Two experienced players in Lupul and Connolly on the first line will, I think, help the first line's effectiveness rather than using a greenhorn in Bozak, who never should've been playing the 1C position in the first place.

At the very least Connolly has played against opponent's shut down lines. I cursed his name a number of times when he was in Buffalo playing against the Leafs.

 

[maplesyrup]

I look at that list, cw, and I think what I keep coming back to is that while there's a lot of things there, there's not much there I'm terribly confident will lead to an improved Maple Leafs team next year. Connolly should be better than Bozak, Reimer should be better than Giguere. Even there though, you're counting on Connolly being healthy and Reimer not slumping.

So has Burke made some moves? Yes. Do they have the organization stronger? Probably. Will they leave the 11-12 Leafs better than the 10-11 Leafs? I remain cautiously optimistic or, on some days, optimistically cautious.

I pretty much agree.  All these moves make the Leafs more than marginally better -- but only if everything goes right.  Injuries to key players, backsliding by Grabs/Kuli, etc., -- those happen, and we are quickly back to major struggling.

Me too. Evey single upgrade can be classified as marginal, I think...  save for maybe Reimer over Giguere but again, I'm very weary of the sophomore slump.

I don't know if I would call Connolly a marginal upgrade over Bozak. I don't know if I would call Franson a marginal upgrade over Lebda. Nevermind coaching changes that will likely have some effect on the players.

And I think he meant to say that the upgrade are marginal only if there are injuries to key players like Connolly, Reimer, Phaneuf. In which case he is probably right. Although this isn't just the Leafs - enough injuries could derail even the deepest team. But I think for once we're starting to see enough prospect depth that I think we could possibly tread water if a few injuries strike.

If Connolly playes his career average number of games, I don't see much improvment over Bozak at all (if any) and pretty much any NHL defensmen represents an improvment over Lebda so I guess you've got me there. Sure, the upgrades cw points out are just that -  upgrades and I'm happy about it but I don't think any single upgrade (or the collection of them) gets us to the dance outside of maybe Reimer who (as I pointed out) could wind up very Gigureish if history repeats.

You're just being a negative Nancy now. Connolly is the closest thing we've had in terms of a #1 Centre in half a decade. Injuries aside, his skill is far superior to Bozak. So, again, all things being equal, and he manages to play 60-70 games I am 100% confident that we'll see at least 45-50pts out of him. Already this is a big jump from Bozak's putrid output last year. I also can't imagine a +/- in the -20s. Two experienced players in Lupul and Connolly on the first line will, I think, help the first line's effectiveness rather than using a greenhorn in Bozak, who never should've been playing the 1C position in the first place.

At the very least Connolly has played against opponent's shut down lines. I cursed his name a number of times when he was in Buffalo playing against the Leafs.

I don't think I'm being negative. The Leafs (on paper) are a better tem this year and I did say I was "happy" with the upgrades. I just think Connolly in particular has a lot of work to do to gain my confidence.

 

[cw]

If Connolly playes his career average number of games, I don't see much improvment over Bozak at all (if any)

I expect some. Even if he played only 50 games (average season GP since the lockout including 2GP '07 season), he'd put up similar projected points as Bozak would over 82 games. I think he's better defensively as a top 6 player right now and I think he can probably get more out of Kessel & Lupul than Bozak.

In a 3rd line role, where he's not distracted trying to feed Kessel, etc and over his head, I think Bozak will improve his focus on defence and provide a better season there in a checking role, PKing with Armstrong and with a sprinkling of scoring from his line - more scoring than Brent's line could deliver.

If Connolly suffers a season/career ending concussion in his first game, obviously, it won't work out that way. Bozak looks like he'd resume the top line role if that happens which is what it looked like if they didn't sign Connolly. Because there was such a shortage of top 6 centers on the UFA market, I kind of look at it like every game we get out of Connolly is probably a bonus over the status quo if we hadn't got him.

If Connolly gets hurt, all the team loses is money and cap space they have an excess of. With wealthy MLSE, it's not such a terrible risk.

 

[maplesyrup]

I kind of look at it like every game we get out of Connolly is probably a bonus over the status quo if we hadn't got him.

That's probably as healthy of a way to look at it as any.

 

[TML fan]

I think the importance of the #1 centre is being overstated. Goaltending will dictate our season. IMO it always has.

 

[Bender]

I think the importance of the #1 centre is being overstated. Goaltending will dictate our season. IMO it always has.

I would have to agree with you to a degree. Montreal had 2 fewer GF than us and made the playoffs. However I think we need an overall increase of 15-20 in goals and a GF/GA differential of about +10-15. We sat at a horrible -33 last year. Just looking at those stats you can generally tell the writing's on the wall, even if the team does make a push. Every playoff team had a + rating.

So where does that leave us? We would need probably around 235 GF and 215 GA. This is a swing of close to +50 increase of goal differential from last year.

Jeez, it really looks like our work could be cut out for us.

 

[Zee]

I think the importance of the #1 centre is being overstated. Goaltending will dictate our season. IMO it always has.

I would have to agree with you to a degree. Montreal had 2 fewer GF than us and made the playoffs. However I think we need an overall increase of 15-20 in goals and a GF/GA differential of about +10-15. We sat at a horrible -33 last year. Just looking at those stats you can generally tell the writing's on the wall, even if the team does make a push. Every playoff team had a + rating.

So where does that leave us? We would need probably around 235 GF and 215 GA. This is a swing of close to +50 increase of goal differential from last year.

Jeez, it really looks like our work could be cut out for us.

Leafs can score the same amount of goals as last season.  As you pointed out Montreal scored 2 less goals than the Leafs (216), yet they gave up 42 fewer goals, or about a half goal per game difference.  Cutting down the goals against with strong play from Reimer will go a long way into getting the Leafs more wins.

 

[the dingo ate my baby]

Leafs will go as far as Reimer takes them. Playoffs? A possibility. Reimer flopping out? Also a possibility.

This exactly.  Reims plays his ass off- good shot at playoffs.  Reims plays average or below average- no shot.  The rest of the team isn't good enough to be top 8.

 

[Tigger]

With Rick Dudley as 'director of player personnel' they got a little better too ( saw a tweet through mcgran from pat park ).

 

[cw]

http://twitter.com/#!/Berger_BYTES/status/92259893020606464
Berger_BYTES Howard Berger
@
@PattyJ198 If Reimer is the real deal, #Leafs make playoffs next season. Mark it down.
2 hours ago