princedpw said:
Williams has moved around a little and doesn't seem particularly attached to a team (unlike Marleau). But, sure, I agree -- Williams might be unwilling to come to Toronto under any circumstances. He also might have been sold on Toronto for $4/year. We'll never know. Still, Williams to Toronto at 4.5-5.5/year seems as reasonable a fantasy conjecture as many people will make.
Except that's why it's probably not a great idea to compare real deals to ones that may or may not have ever been possibilities. I'd prefer Shattenkirk at 3 years, 22.5 million to Hainsey at 2/6 but that doesn't factor too much into how I look at the Hainsey deal.
But also, like I said, the Marleau deal should be proof positive that if we're going to start with the reasonable assumption that if a well regarded UFA signs on the first day that the team he signs with is where he wants to be then "outbidding" that deal can easily mean in term as well as just dollars.
I read your argument before and I get it. If Marleau wants to retire, I'm certain the deal is moveable at the cost of some draft pick (you can factor in that draft pick to Marleau's current cost if you would like). There is a some risk he doesn't want to retire and wants to stay with the leafs. I'm not sure how to quantify that risk because I haven't chatted with him personally.
Edit: my markup skills leave something to be desired.
I'm not trying to repeat myself but, with all due respect, I'm not sure you do get my argument. Saying that the "risk" can be ameliorated by trading away a draft pick in the final year isn't my argument. My argument is that trading his final year contract might not "cost" anything.
Look at the Datsyuk and Pronger deals. This was the Datsyuk deal:
To Arizona: pick #16, Pavel Datsyuk
To Detroit: picks #20 and #53, Joe Vitale
Then, for Pronger:
To Arizona: Chris Pronger, Nicklaus Grossman
To Philadelphia: Sam Gagner, Conditional 3rd or 4th round pick
In both cases, the teams that traded the dead money deals gained picks. I won't necessarily go so far as to say they were assets but the teams that had them got rid of them without really sacrificing a thing.
As to the possibility that Marleau would refuse and demand to play I think we can kind of ignore that because the idea that he'd choose to ride the bus in the AHL vs going home to San Jose family for a pretty small pay check relatively seems unlikely to the point of real never seen before dedication.