Marleau signed [3 years, $6.25mil AAV]

[CarltonTheBear]

Well, the thing that jumped out at me was his low shots/game last year -- he played with Thornton, right?  Who presumably set him up a lot.

This season, San Jose's lines were pretty fluid. Marleau often bounced around everywhere in the top-9. It should be noted though that of his 27 goals this past season, just 5 were assisted by Thornton. And just 2 of those were at even-strength.

edit: And in the 2015-16 season they actually barely played together at 5-on-5. Just 36 of Marleau's 1000+ even strength minutes were spent with Thornton. They did play on the same PP unit though.

 

[L K]

I guess we'll wait and see on Marleau. Hopefully he's a good fit, but as a buddy mentioned to me this feels like Owen Nolan part 2. Hope I'm wrong.

Only that Marleau hasn't missed a game in 8 seasons, Nolan was in and out of the infirmary his whole career, no?

Marleau only cost money too unlike Nolan.  The team is going to be good regardless of Marleau being here but it gives the flexibility to trade a Bozak/JVR + pick/prospect for a defensive upgrade too.  Depending on how the Leafs proceed here they might be a hell of a lot better this year than last year.

 

[KadriFan]

I guess we'll wait and see on Marleau. Hopefully he's a good fit, but as a buddy mentioned to me this feels like Owen Nolan part 2. Hope I'm wrong.

Only that Marleau hasn't missed a game in 8 seasons, Nolan was in and out of the infirmary his whole career, no?

Marleau only cost money too unlike Nolan.  The team is going to be good regardless of Marleau being here but it gives the flexibility to trade a Bozak/JVR + pick/prospect for a defensive upgrade too.  Depending on how the Leafs proceed here they might be a hell of a lot better this year than last year.

I don't understand how they get back under the cap.  They still have RFAs to sign as well

 

[L K]

I guess we'll wait and see on Marleau. Hopefully he's a good fit, but as a buddy mentioned to me this feels like Owen Nolan part 2. Hope I'm wrong.

Only that Marleau hasn't missed a game in 8 seasons, Nolan was in and out of the infirmary his whole career, no?

Marleau only cost money too unlike Nolan.  The team is going to be good regardless of Marleau being here but it gives the flexibility to trade a Bozak/JVR + pick/prospect for a defensive upgrade too.  Depending on how the Leafs proceed here they might be a hell of a lot better this year than last year.

I don't understand how they get back under the cap.  They still have RFAs to sign as well

Lupul and Horton immediately go on LTIR and clear 10.5M off the cap that puts the Leafs at 64M.  A chunk of that goes away with the bonus overages but the Leafs are fine financially right now.

 

[Bullfrog]

I guess we'll wait and see on Marleau. Hopefully he's a good fit, but as a buddy mentioned to me this feels like Owen Nolan part 2. Hope I'm wrong.

Only that Marleau hasn't missed a game in 8 seasons, Nolan was in and out of the infirmary his whole career, no?

Marleau only cost money too unlike Nolan.  The team is going to be good regardless of Marleau being here but it gives the flexibility to trade a Bozak/JVR + pick/prospect for a defensive upgrade too.  Depending on how the Leafs proceed here they might be a hell of a lot better this year than last year.

Plus, and this is most important to me, they haven't given away any valuable future assets (picks or prospects) to get here, aside from the Andersen trade and losing Leipsic.

 

[KadriFan]

I guess we'll wait and see on Marleau. Hopefully he's a good fit, but as a buddy mentioned to me this feels like Owen Nolan part 2. Hope I'm wrong.

Only that Marleau hasn't missed a game in 8 seasons, Nolan was in and out of the infirmary his whole career, no?

Marleau only cost money too unlike Nolan.  The team is going to be good regardless of Marleau being here but it gives the flexibility to trade a Bozak/JVR + pick/prospect for a defensive upgrade too.  Depending on how the Leafs proceed here they might be a hell of a lot better this year than last year.

I don't understand how they get back under the cap.  They still have RFAs to sign as well

Lupul and Horton immediately go on LTIR and clear 10.5M off the cap that puts the Leafs at 64M.  A chunk of that goes away with the bonus overages but the Leafs are fine financially right now.

Oh ok.  I thought they had to be under the cap before the season starts.

 

[Highlander]

I guess we'll wait and see on Marleau. Hopefully he's a good fit, but as a buddy mentioned to me this feels like Owen Nolan part 2. Hope I'm wrong.

I don't understand this comparison. Nolan was very good for the Leafs until he ruined his knee.

Ya but the we didnt give up any assests to get him, no #1's

 

[ZBBM]

What I really like about this deal (and the pursuit of Thornton) is that it shows management recognizes that there's a clear window to win a Stanley Cup in the next 2 years. That's not to say that the window closes after Matthews and Marner get their next contracts of course, but it changes a little bit. I wasn't sure if they would kind of sit on their hands a little bit and just be happy with whatever success comes their way during that time, and I'm glad that doesn't seem to be the case. They gotta go for it.

This team right now, especially in the current era that doesn't see a juggernaut like Chicago or LA or Boston exist anymore, is good enough to win the Cup with some tweaks. Marleau was one of those. Getting another defencemen now, or maybe waiting until the deadline if need to, is the next step.

This is an obvious point but of they are truly ditching the Shanaplan for Burkeplan II then it is imperative that they trade JVR and/or Bozak and/or assets to get a top-4 D who can help right now.  In for a dime, in for a dollar.

 

[Zee]

I guess we'll wait and see on Marleau. Hopefully he's a good fit, but as a buddy mentioned to me this feels like Owen Nolan part 2. Hope I'm wrong.

I don't understand this comparison. Nolan was very good for the Leafs until he ruined his knee.

Ya but the we didnt give up any assests to get him, no #1's

The Nolan comparison is just the fact that he's a big name player whose best years were behind him by the time he got to the Leafs.  There's no comparison in terms of losing assets cause Marleau is just money. Hope he's good.

 

[Kin]

If anything it seems like the far more apt comparison would be to someone like Nieuwendyk. I don't think anyone was expecting him to be at his peak here, just that he could still be a useful player.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

This is an obvious point but of they are truly ditching the Shanaplan for Burkeplan II then it is imperative that they trade JVR and/or Bozak and/or assets to get a top-4 D who can help right now.  In for a dime, in for a dollar.

Demers is still my dream target (in that he's the best available RH defenceman). But the report of him nixing a trade to Vancouver worried me. I think it's possible he wouldn't really want to play up north. He's spent his entire career in some pretty nice climates (San Jose, Dallas, and now Florida). Hopefully it had more to do with Vancouver not being any good.

 

[Zee]

This is an obvious point but of they are truly ditching the Shanaplan for Burkeplan II then it is imperative that they trade JVR and/or Bozak and/or assets to get a top-4 D who can help right now.  In for a dime, in for a dollar.

Demers is still my dream target (in that he's the best available RH defenceman). But the report of him nixing a trade to Vancouver worried me. I think it's possible he wouldn't really want to play up north. He's spent his entire career in some pretty nice climates (San Jose, Dallas, and now Florida). Hopefully it had more to do with Vancouver not being any good.

That would be awesome if he nixed a trade to the Canucks cause they stink but accepted a trade to the Leafs. That would annoy Canucks fans.

 

[Redleaf]

If anything it seems like the far more apt comparison would be to someone like Nieuwendyk. I don't think anyone was expecting him to be at his peak here, just that he could still be a useful player.

Or Lindros?

 

[princedpw]

I'd prefer Justin Williams 2-year 4.5/year contract over this one. Or a 2-year 5.5/year contract if one wants to argue that we needed to outbid the canes. 

That's operating under the assumption that what Williams signed for is the absolute maximum the Canes would have offered. If Williams was open to offers from the highest bidder there's every chance that what it would have taken to sign him wasn't outbidding what he got by a nominal amount by increasing the term as well.

Williams has moved around a little and doesn't seem particularly attached to a team (unlike Marleau).  But, sure, I agree -- Williams might be unwilling to come to Toronto under any circumstances.  He also might have been sold on Toronto for $4/year. We'll never know.  Still, Williams to Toronto at 4.5-5.5/year seems as reasonable a fantasy conjecture as many people will make.

Williams seems to have similar production, excellent possession numbers, playoff experience, but he's a notch number and we avoid the risk of that third year.

Again, the "risk of the third year" is effectively saying that you're worried that this front office can't pull off what pretty much every other front office seems to be able to when they've got a contract like this. A 6 million dollar cap hit with only 1.5 million in salary isn't going to be terribly hard to move.
[/quote]

I read your argument before and I get it.  If Marleau wants to retire, I'm certain the deal is moveable at the cost of some draft pick (you can factor in that draft pick to Marleau's current cost if you would like).  There is a some risk he doesn't want to retire and wants to stay with the leafs. I'm not sure how to quantify that risk because I haven't chatted with him personally. 

Edit: my markup skills leave something to be desired.

 

[Kin]

If anything it seems like the far more apt comparison would be to someone like Nieuwendyk. I don't think anyone was expecting him to be at his peak here, just that he could still be a useful player.

Or Lindros?

Well, except the direct comparison is worrying about age vs worrying about injury. Lindros was only 32 when he signed here but hadn't been played a full season in years. Nieuwendyk was 37 and relatively healthy.

So, yeah, Nieuwendyk.

 

[Bill_Berg]

If anything it seems like the far more apt comparison would be to someone like Nieuwendyk. I don't think anyone was expecting him to be at his peak here, just that he could still be a useful player.

Or Lindros?

Well, except the direct comparison is worrying about age vs worrying about injury. Lindros was only 32 when he signed here but hadn't been played a full season in years. Nieuwendyk was 37 and relatively healthy.

So, yeah, Nieuwendyk.

Wait a sec, Nolan came from SJ, Marleau came from SJ. They must be the same!

 

[mr grieves]

This is an obvious point but [if] they are truly ditching the Shanaplan for Burkeplan II then it is imperative that they trade JVR and/or Bozak and/or assets to get a top-4 D who can help right now.  In for a dime, in for a dollar.

I'm not sure they are "ditching" the Shanaplan, and I'm certain I wouldn't've have misgivings about the Burkeplan if we already a 1C, 1W, 2C, 4F, 3 top-4 defensemen, and a decent starter. Getting Marleau seems pretty consistent with, or the logical next step from, making a move for Andersen last season. Was that not the "Shanaplan"? 

But I agree it's important to make another move to upgrade the defense. If there's the recognition that the Leafs' first window is open, gotta get what you need to climb through.

 

[WhatIfGodWasALeaf]

Agreed, this is a complimentary piece for basically zero asset cost (cap space) and it's structured in a way to give them team plenty of flexibility.

I'm not sure I understand some people's need to overreact to this.

 

[Kin]

Williams has moved around a little and doesn't seem particularly attached to a team (unlike Marleau).  But, sure, I agree -- Williams might be unwilling to come to Toronto under any circumstances.  He also might have been sold on Toronto for $4/year. We'll never know.  Still, Williams to Toronto at 4.5-5.5/year seems as reasonable a fantasy conjecture as many people will make.

Except that's why it's probably not a great idea to compare real deals to ones that may or may not have ever been possibilities. I'd prefer Shattenkirk at 3 years, 22.5 million to Hainsey at 2/6 but that doesn't factor too much into how I look at the Hainsey deal.

But also, like I said, the Marleau deal should be proof positive that if we're going to start with the reasonable assumption that if a well regarded UFA signs on the first day that the team he signs with is where he wants to be then "outbidding" that deal can easily mean in term as well as just dollars.

I read your argument before and I get it.  If Marleau wants to retire, I'm certain the deal is moveable at the cost of some draft pick (you can factor in that draft pick to Marleau's current cost if you would like).  There is a some risk he doesn't want to retire and wants to stay with the leafs. I'm not sure how to quantify that risk because I haven't chatted with him personally. 

Edit: my markup skills leave something to be desired.

I'm not trying to repeat myself but, with all due respect, I'm not sure you do get my argument. Saying that the "risk" can be ameliorated by trading away a draft pick in the final year isn't my argument. My argument is that trading his final year contract might not "cost" anything.

Look at the Datsyuk and Pronger deals. This was the Datsyuk deal:

To Arizona: pick #16, Pavel Datsyuk

To Detroit: picks #20 and #53, Joe Vitale

Then, for Pronger:

To Arizona: Chris Pronger, Nicklaus Grossman

To Philadelphia: Sam Gagner, Conditional 3rd or 4th round pick

In both cases, the teams that traded the dead money deals gained picks. I won't necessarily go so far as to say they were assets but the teams that had them got rid of them without really sacrificing a thing.

As to the possibility that Marleau would refuse and demand to play I think we can kind of ignore that because the idea that he'd choose to ride the bus in the AHL vs going home to San Jose family for a pretty small pay check relatively seems unlikely to the point of real never seen before dedication.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

As to the possibility that Marleau would refuse and demand to play I think we can kind of ignore that because the idea that he'd choose to ride the bus in the AHL vs going home to San Jose family for a pretty small pay check relatively seems unlikely to the point of real never seen before dedication.

His NMC would mean he's not going to the AHL, but yeah I'm becoming more and more convinced that Marleau has no intention whatsoever of playing that third year given what his actual in-season pay-cheques are going to amount to.