Matthews signs 5 year contract, $11.634mil AAV

[ZBBM]

Last I heard nothing is unilateral in a negotiation.

Right. The team pay scale is not the only thing Marner and his representation will be looking at. That's what I just said.

Maybe, maybe not -- neither you nor I can know.  But even if it isn't, there's nothing that says they can't take the position that the internal scale is the overriding consideration.  That would sure be my position if I were Marner's group, especially since each team's cap and ownership situation is unique.

 

[Kin]

I would have been happy if this same cap hit was for the full 8 years but hey, who am I to be a dissenting voice?

Until you address the reality that Dubas has to negotiate with Matthews' agent and not your feelings, you're basically still just saying that this is bad because you're not happy.

 

[ZBBM]

It's the fully grown adult default position in a negotiation where you are an exceptionally talented individual who can't just be replaced by the next guy on the assembly line.

Dude, I say this as someone who I hope you agree generally knows his stuff but you aren't making any sense right now. Not even from post to post.

You're a smart guy, so not sure why you are not getting my reply to your saucy dig but here it is in a nutshell: Marner is essentially irreplaceable, in that you aren't going out to sign a free agent with his skillset.  That gives him leverage to say yeah, Kyle, I *deserve* X dollars.

Anyway, I have to run now but maybe we can take this up some more later.  It's a fun debate.

 

[Kin]

You're a smart guy, so not sure why you are not getting my reply to your saucy dig.

Because I wasn't talking about Marner, I was talking about Zee and his "What has Matthews done to deserve..." stuff. All players get to ask for whatever they want in negotiations. Teams, ultimately, get to choose whether or not to sign players.

Zee, and others, constantly ignore the reality that what players make is not simply about a league-wide salary structure, it's also about the realities of players earning a fair % of the revenues they generate. Despite the existence of the cap, that makes players in big markets more valuable than players in smaller markets. The cap not accounting for that was one of its glaringly obvious flaws.

Likewise, players are human beings and value different things. Some guys may just want to make the most money. Others value long term stability. One player signing for Xamount of dollars, on his team or not, doesn't bind the hands of the next guy and what he can ask for/prioritize.

Dubas can only negotiate along those lines. He has to deal with the reality of players wanting a fair cut of the revenues they generate in Toronto as well as taking the league wide structure into account. He can not simply declare what is or isn't relevant. He can't demand players "take less".

Criticism is fine. The idea that I never criticize Dubas is so ridiculous that it barely deserves a response. But "I would have done a better job" is not a substantive criticism.

 

[Deebo]

Matthews could have signed for 20% of the cap and there would be guys on here defending the deal. Amazing how you're not allowed to question management despite seeing other teams manage their own players salaries better.

What a bunch of crap.

You've been here long enough to see management and coaching criticized on a regular basis from the same people you are claiming would defend a 20% deal.

 

[herman]

https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2019/02/05/kyle-dubas-on-the-auston-matthews-contract-extension-we-were-able-to-lock-him-in-and-also-to-maintain-some-flexibility-as-we-move-ahead/

How does a five-year deal allow you to be more flexible than an eight-year deal?

Dubas: I just think the nature of way deals are in hockey, the younger players, if you want the longer-term, you are also taking up more of their prime, so the AAV rises. Certainly, that [eight years] was the intention from the beginning on Auston?s side. They were focused on that. Just as we kind of worked through it together, having more discussions, we are trying to balance keeping this together while also contending and not having to delete parts from it. We are very thankful that they were willing to move from their desired term. Everyone wants to be here for as long as possible, but we were able to find an AAV that works for everybody. We were able to lock him in and also to maintain some flexibility as we move ahead. That?s how it sort of all came to be.

You look at how salaries are changing for guys on second contracts, you?ve experienced that now with two successful negotiations. How much more of a challenge is it to build a team that has a long span of contention when this is kind of the norm for second contracts now?

Dubas: We spent a lot of time talking about that. It is our job. As Auston touched on during his discussion, we are trying to build a team that can have sustained success, not just contend once. I think if you look, there is a litany of teams all across every professional sport that are very good teams for a long time but can?t push it across the finish line. I think a lot of that is luck related and luck based, and we want to give ourselves the maximum number of chances we can to make a real good go at it.

In saying that, keeping the young core of our team together and then building out a program where they want to stay here on their subsequent contracts falls on us and not on the players. It is up to us to explain it to them and be very clear in our communication with them as they come along. I think the issue we have here is one we are very lucky to have. It creates some headaches at times, but we do have a very talented young team. We would rather be trying to keep that together rather than where we were at the beginning just trying to build it up. At times, it can become a bit challenging, but we are fortunate to have the kind of people we have here who are willing to work and meet us halfway.

 

[Andy007]

I think part of the problem here is that the AAV number can look staggering but it's really the % of the Cap number that matters. This is perfectly in line in comparison to other star players in the past in the same situation, as Nik and Carlton already pointed out in the first two pages. 5 years might not be ideal to some, but I'm not sure why anyone thought he was going to take anything under 11 million...

 

[AvroArrow]

I would have liked 500k less or 1 more year at that cap hit, but I can't really complain.  We have a generational goal scorer and PPG player on our hands.

 

[Zee]

From all accounts Marner stands to become the highest paid winger in the league. McKenzie said there's no doubt he'll want $11M. I'll criticize the deal today before it's even signed. If it's the exact same deal as Matthews then the Leafs management will be getting severely bent over. They better win a Cup.

 

[Kin]

From all accounts Marner stands to become the highest paid winger in the league. McKenzie said there's no doubt he'll want $11M. I'll criticize the deal today before it's even signed.

If Marner wants 11 million to sign and won't if he doesn't get it, what should Dubas do? Trade him? Not sign him at all? Do you have any actual criticism besides "be gooder at negotiating"?

 

[Joe S.]

This thread is both sad and hilarious.

 

[Phileas Fogg]

Yeah, it's a fair deal, and really the only way to ensure the core stays for a deep playoff run for hopefully multiple seasons.

I think the major misstep that still resonates is Shanahan's ill advised comments about top players taking less. It set expectations that weren't fair or feasible, and you get some of the reactions I've read in the thread.

 

[Phileas Fogg]

Oh, and by the way, he won the Calder, for crying out loud.

 

[BrownRolo]

It's an OK deal but how is Eichel not used as a comparable. 10 million at 8 years.

Matthews is the better player but for only 5 years I feel his cap hit should have come in at less than what the Leafs paid.

 

[OldTimeHockey]

"This is a bad deal because some other guys signed deals that didn't take full advantage of their bargaining power" is just ridiculous.

NO Kidding!

 

[Kin]

It's an OK deal but how is Eichel not used as a comparable. 10 million at 8 years.

Eichel, I'm sure, was used as a comparable. Eichel signed his deal after his second season. In those two seasons, Eichel had 48 goals and 113 points. Matthews, in his first two seasons, scored 75 goals and 132 points.

So in other words:

Matthews outpointed Eichel by about 17%

Matthews outscored Eichel by around 54%

Despite that, Matthews' contract was only 16% higher per year. If anything, Eichel's deal is proof that the Leafs got Matthews at a discount.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/davidnestico200/status/1092965818306945024

Send me your Mitch Marner caption jokes.

 

[BrownRolo]

It's an OK deal but how is Eichel not used as a comparable. 10 million at 8 years.

Eichel, I'm sure, was used as a comparable. Eichel signed his deal after his second season. In those two seasons, Eichel had 48 goals and 113 points. Matthews, in his first two seasons, scored 75 goals and 132 points.

So in other words:

Matthews outpointed Eichel by about 17%

Matthews outscored Eichel by around 54%

Despite that, Matthews' contract was only 16% higher per year. If anything, Eichel's deal is proof that the Leafs got Matthews at a discount.

They also got an extra 3 UFA years. Does that not count for something?

 

[L K]

It's an OK deal but how is Eichel not used as a comparable. 10 million at 8 years.

Matthews is the better player but for only 5 years I feel his cap hit should have come in at less than what the Leafs paid.

Matthews - 0.533 Goals/Game  vs. Eichel - 0.350
Matthews - 0.978 Points/Game  vs. Eichel - 0.899
Matthews - 0.687 Even Strength Points/Game vs. Eichel - 0.502
Matthews - 0.824 Primary Points/Game vs. Eichel - 0.689 Primary Points/Game

I think you are really undervaluing just how much of a gap there is between Eichel and Matthews.

 

[Kin]

They also got an extra 3 UFA years. Does that not count for something?

Again, in terms of goal scoring, if Eichel was going to be getting paid according to what % of Matthews' totals he got, he'd be getting 7.5 million. So by that measurement Eichel got 2.5 million more per year for those extra three years.

Likewise, to pay Matthews the equivalent over his deal, at an 8 year term to line it up with Eichel's, Matthews would get 15.4 million aav.

And, of course, that doesn't even really get at the difference between the two and their production as Eichel did it with more ice time and PP time.