Mitch Marner: what now?

[Highlander]

yes but we are saving on that cap space as well, no?  Otherwise we would be paying them

 

[Kin]

yes but we are saving on that cap space as well, no?  Otherwise we would be paying them

All of that money has essentially already been swallowed up by the Matthews extension.

 

[Highlander]

Ok thanks on that Nik. 

 

[93forever]

There are teams out there like the Canadiens who would be more than willing to offer Marner 11 to 12 million per season, in exchange for giving up the draft picks, so why would Marner take 8 to 9 million from the Leafs?  Why would the Leafs even contemplate letting Marner sign with another team in exchange for those draft picks, which may or may not turn into anything great considering they already know what they have with Marner? 

 

[Kin]

The Habs have almost 30% of their cap tied up in Price, Weber and Alzner. They're also going to have to sign Domi next year.

I'd obviously not rule anything out but they don't strike me like a team that's in a good position to add a 12 million dollar salary.

 

[Bullfrog]

There are teams out there like the Canadiens who would be more than willing to offer Marner 11 to 12 million per season, in exchange for giving up the draft picks, so why would Marner take 8 to 9 million from the Leafs?  Why would the Leafs even contemplate letting Marner sign with another team in exchange for those draft picks, which may or may not turn into anything great considering they already know what they have with Marner?

I don't think there's any team out there willing to make Marner the highest paid winger in the league.

 

[93forever]

There are teams out there like the Canadiens who would be more than willing to offer Marner 11 to 12 million per season, in exchange for giving up the draft picks, so why would Marner take 8 to 9 million from the Leafs?  Why would the Leafs even contemplate letting Marner sign with another team in exchange for those draft picks, which may or may not turn into anything great considering they already know what they have with Marner?

I don't think there's any team out there willing to make Marner the highest paid winger in the league.

I think most of us have seen a GM make a trade or signing that made us scratch our heads so anything is possible.

 

[Guilt Trip]

There are teams out there like the Canadiens who would be more than willing to offer Marner 11 to 12 million per season, in exchange for giving up the draft picks, so why would Marner take 8 to 9 million from the Leafs?  Why would the Leafs even contemplate letting Marner sign with another team in exchange for those draft picks, which may or may not turn into anything great considering they already know what they have with Marner?

I don't think there's any team out there willing to make Marner the highest paid winger in the league.

...and also give up 4 1sts. Don't see it happening.

 

[cabber24]

Marner, Dermott, Kadri, Tavares, and Hyman at the Raptors game. All the local born players except Brown? Clearly, this means Marner stays and Brown is gone.

I remember when Babcock said Marner is a Leaf for life. I believe him.

 

[mr grieves]

[tweet]1134865978096009216[/tweet]

Who knows if it's true. But there's surely some reporting out there (Dreger) that's roughly consistent with the story. It sure look like Marner's side is working the media hard... I wonder what the reality is behind the PR campaign.

1. Creating a media narrative to justify their ask in advance of presenting their own proposed deals? (that's the obvious one, the usual explanation -- framing the debate)
2. Pumping up expectations so when he signs for a 2-3% overpayment on similar players' second contracts (i.e. $9.5m) he's hailed as a hero and avoids Nylander's press? (the conspiratorial explanation, not inconsistent with other options)
3. Having already received Dubas's best offer, trying to scare the Leafs into moving in their direction by threatening he'll entertain offers during the RFA period? (here it'd be helpful to know what number of stories is built on leaks from Marner's side)

I still think Dubas should just give Marner's side a number ($9.16m) and a list of possible terms (8 on down to... 3?). Forget deep discounts on a bridge. Let the agent pick the term. Just get him under contract at a number the team can manage -- and if there's no such number, take control of his destiny and put Marner on the market so the Leafs can maximize return

 

[princedpw]

[tweet]1134865978096009216[/tweet]

Who knows if it's true. But there's surely some reporting out there (Dreger) that's roughly consistent with the story. It sure look like Marner's side is working the media hard... I wonder what the reality is behind the PR campaign.

1. Creating a media narrative to justify their ask in advance of presenting their own proposed deals? (that's the obvious one, the usual explanation -- framing the debate)
2. Pumping up expectations so when he signs for a 2-3% overpayment on similar players' second contracts (i.e. $9.5m) he's hailed as a hero and avoids Nylander's press? (the conspiratorial explanation, not inconsistent with other options)
3. Having already received Dubas's best offer, trying to scare the Leafs into moving in their direction by threatening he'll entertain offers during the RFA period? (here it'd be helpful to know what number of stories is built on leaks from Marner's side)

I still think Dubas should just give Marner's side a number ($9.16m) and a list of possible terms (8 on down to... 3?). Forget deep discounts on a bridge. Let the agent pick the term. Just get him under contract at a number the team can manage -- and if there's no such number, take control of his destiny and put Marner on the market so the Leafs can maximize return

Who is Dave Pagnotta and why do we think he?s doing anything more than blowing hot air?

Also, if I were Marner, I too would be arguing for Matthews money in advance of my agent meeting with Dubas.  Why not?

 

[ZBBM]

If I remember correctly what I previously said on this thread I don't think he'll take less than 10. If Zaitsev and perhaps Marceau are outta here it makes a slight overpayment more feasible this year. I'd tell him you can have 10 but only if you sign for 8 years. It'll be a bargain toward the end and Mitch can report back to his dad that we're all set for life.

 

[Guilt Trip]

If I remember correctly what I previously said on this thread I don't think he'll take less than 10. If Zaitsev and perhaps Marceau are outta here it makes a slight overpayment more feasible this year. I'd tell him you can have 10 but only if you sign for 8 years. It'll be a bargain toward the end and Mitch can report back to his dad that we're all set for life.

Agree. If he wants and is firm on Matthews money, I'd wish him good luck in finding a deal elsewhere because we're max at $xxxx. He's not worth Matthews money and I don't see anyone giving him that amount.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Agree. If he wants and is firm on Matthews money, I'd wish him good luck in finding a deal elsewhere because we're max at $xxxx. He's not worth Matthews money and I don't see anyone giving him that amount.

That's what I keep coming back to. He's not getting Matthews money anywhere. That just isn't happening. So I don't get what his endgame is here. I really hope the Leafs hold strong. Like I said before I think he'll get a real reality check when/if he talks to other teams. But we should basically lay out 3 options:

1) Three year bridge deal for $7.5-8mil
2) Six or seven year deal for $9.5mil
3) Wait for the offer sheet that'll likely be maximum $10.5mil. Tell Marner if he goes that route he's not getting any guarantees he won't be traded in the future (edit: admittedly this would mostly be a bluff on my part)

 

[Guilt Trip]

Agree. If he wants and is firm on Matthews money, I'd wish him good luck in finding a deal elsewhere because we're max at $xxxx. He's not worth Matthews money and I don't see anyone giving him that amount.

That's what I keep coming back to. He's not getting Matthews money anywhere. That just isn't happening. So I don't get what his endgame is here. I really hope the Leafs hold strong. Like I said before I think he'll get a real reality check when/if he talks to other teams. But we should basically lay out 3 options:

1) Three year bridge deal for $7.5-8mil
2) Six or seven year deal for $9.5mil
3) Wait for the offer sheet that'll likely be maximum $10.5mil. Tell Marner if he goes that route he's not getting any guarantees he won't be traded in the future (edit: admittedly this would mostly be a bluff on my part)

Totally agree with all you said.

 

[Kin]

That's what I keep coming back to. He's not getting Matthews money anywhere. That just isn't happening. So I don't get what his endgame is here.

Even if you believe that giving Marner that sort of money is a universally bad idea(and I'm not so sure it is), that's putting an awful lot of faith in the collective good judgement of NHL GMs. I think we both know we can find a fair few "There's no way Marleau will ever be traded" posts around here.

But regardless, the end game seems pretty simple. Next year's Leafs are going to be in a tough spot to be as good as this year's team even with Marner. Gardiner seems to be gone no matter what and while not many of us will miss Zaitsev or Hainsey, there aren't internal options that look like automatic upgrades. So a team that only made the playoffs by virtue of 4 points may very well be in a tougher spot next year.

So if the team goes into next year with Marner pulling a Nylander, there's a very real chance the team could squander the points they need to secure a playoff spot. Maybe Dubas is willing to risk that in the abstract, maybe the fans here advocating for a hard line on Marner's negotiations will be forgiving if the result is not making the post-season(ha-ha) but it's a legitimate piece of leverage when the team needs to find a lot of internal improvement to even get back to where they were.

 

[L K]

That's what I keep coming back to. He's not getting Matthews money anywhere. That just isn't happening. So I don't get what his endgame is here.

Even if you believe that giving Marner that sort of money is a universally bad idea(and I'm not so sure it is), that's putting an awful lot of faith in the collective good judgement of NHL GMs. I think we both know we can find a fair few "There's no way Marleau will ever be traded" posts around here.

But regardless, the end game seems pretty simple. Next year's Leafs are going to be in a tough spot to be as good as this year's team even with Marner. Gardiner seems to be gone no matter what and while not many of us will miss Zaitsev or Hainsey, there aren't internal options that look like automatic upgrades. So a team that only made the playoffs by virtue of 4 points may very well be in a tougher spot next year.

So if the team goes into next year with Marner pulling a Nylander, there's a very real chance the team could squander the points they need to secure a playoff spot. Maybe Dubas is willing to risk that in the abstract, maybe the fans here advocating for a hard line on Marner's negotiations will be forgiving if the result is not making the post-season(ha-ha) but it's a legitimate piece of leverage when the team needs to find a lot of internal improvement to even get back to where they were.

To be fair, they still haven't traded Marleau so it's entirely possible they can't find a way to do it.  And if Marleau is willing to sign, his front loaded contract is attractive to garbage teams that don't want to actually spend money.  So while there are plenty thinking he doesn't have value (myself included) I don't think that's nearly as far fetched as Marner making 10-11 million.

 

[Kin]

To be fair, they still haven't traded Marleau so it's entirely possible they can't find a way to do it.  And if Marleau is willing to sign, his front loaded contract is attractive to garbage teams that don't want to actually spend money.  So while there are plenty thinking he doesn't have value (myself included) I don't think that's nearly as far fetched as Marner making 10-11 million.

My point is just that something as mundane as "Marleau may be open to a trade" was always possible and dismissing it as impossible was always ridiculous.

Likewise, while I'm still of the opinion that it's unlikely that Marner gets any RFA offers because of the way that market works the difference is that I don't think that Marner's asking price is going to be the issue. If people generally agree that 9.5 might be a reasonable long term number for Marner and that teams out there would be open to offer-sheeting him at that number then saying that it's somehow inconceivable that one team might go a million or so higher than that doesn't strike me as a realistic look at how NHL GMs operate. If they'd be interested in offer-sheeting Marner at a rate that already loses them the draftpicks, a million or so in cap space isn't going to be the fatal roadblock.

 

[L K]

To be fair, they still haven't traded Marleau so it's entirely possible they can't find a way to do it.  And if Marleau is willing to sign, his front loaded contract is attractive to garbage teams that don't want to actually spend money.  So while there are plenty thinking he doesn't have value (myself included) I don't think that's nearly as far fetched as Marner making 10-11 million.

My point is just that something as mundane as "Marleau may be open to a trade" was always possible and dismissing it as impossible was always ridiculous.

Likewise, while I'm still of the opinion that it's unlikely that Marner gets any RFA offers because of the way that market works the difference is that I don't think that Marner's asking price is going to be the issue. If people generally agree that 9.5 might be a reasonable long term number for Marner and that teams out there would be open to offer-sheeting him at that number then saying that it's somehow inconceivable that one team might go a million or so higher than that doesn't strike me as a realistic look at how NHL GMs operate. If they'd be interested in offer-sheeting Marner at a rate that already loses them the draftpicks, a million or so in cap space isn't going to be the fatal roadblock.

I'll buy that argument under the 10.58 cap.  I could see a team trying to pinch Marner for the 2 1st, 2nd, 3rd...maybe but the 4 1st round picks one is a tough convince for me.  It speaks pretty poorly on Marner if he's going to sign an offersheet though over 500K.  Mostly from my end that would be an argument for letting him walk in my mind.

 

[Kin]

I'll buy that argument under the 10.58 cap.  I could see a team trying to pinch Marner for the 2 1st, 2nd, 3rd...maybe but the 4 1st round picks one is a tough convince for me.  It speaks pretty poorly on Marner if he's going to sign an offersheet though over 500K.  Mostly from my end that would be an argument for letting him walk in my mind.

I'm really not trying to convince you of anything short of not automatically dismissing the possibility of an NHL GM making a big, potentially dumb decision.