Mitch Marner: what now?

[herman]

https://twitter.com/PierreVLeBrun/status/1142506591037677574

Welcome back, SI!

Thanks Herman.  It has been a while since I posted.  I popped in here and there to take the temperature of the fan base, but didn't really have time to post anything.

Are you ready for the thread that threatens to dethrone the Stamkos thread this summer?

 

[rdowdall]

https://twitter.com/PierreVLeBrun/status/1142506591037677574

Welcome back, SI!

Thanks Herman.  It has been a while since I posted.  I popped in here and there to take the temperature of the fan base, but didn't really have time to post anything.

Are you ready for the thread that threatens to dethrone the Stamkos thread this summer?

.  I don't know.  That Stamkos thread was something else. 

I feel they have to sign Marner.  He's the type of player you need to win a cup. I read an article today that say that Ferris likes to play these tactics of threatening to go to another team or go to the KHL in order to drive the price up for his client.  Personally I could do without the dog and pony show, and it would be nice if they could just get a deal worked out.

 

[Guilt Trip]

That would certainly apply to those teams that have a pending FA at the level of Marner.  But they wouldn't be the ones tempted to do an OS anyway.

No, because as people have mentioned there was an excellent chance that the Leafs were going to match on Marner no matter what. The real consequence of opening up the RFA market will be for the mid-tier guys whose leaving via offer sheet wouldn't return all that much pick wise. Kapanen or Johnsson, for instance, would have been very vulnerable to that if the RFA market was alive.

I think your imaginary team that has a ton of cap space, a willingness to lose 4 firsts and no potentially tricky RFA negotiations on the horizon just doesn't exist.

I agree 100% on all points.  That's why, when we switch from Speculation Land to the real world, dumping Marleau's contract doesn't make much difference one way or the other with respect to Marner.  An OS to a superstar isn't likely in the first place.

It does provide the Cap Space to sign Marner and help fill out the roster.  We will probably get both of Kap and Johsson for Marleau's Cap.

I hope so.  Still, both of those moves address the front end, which isn't where the team's biggest weakness is.  If Zaitsev really is considered a liability (which I don't entirely buy) there's going to have to be some cleverness applied to the blueline.

I don't think Zaitsev goes for cheap. He played well with Muzz in the playoffs. I think we'll see Rosen and Liljegren up with the big club as our bottom pairing to start. Dermott can play the right side when he gets back. We also have Borgman on the Marlies and from the games I saw, I really liked him. He's tough, has some offensive flair and gets the puck out quickly. Sandin is a def lonshot but never say never. The kid is very smart.

 

[slapshot]

That would certainly apply to those teams that have a pending FA at the level of Marner.  But they wouldn't be the ones tempted to do an OS anyway.

No, because as people have mentioned there was an excellent chance that the Leafs were going to match on Marner no matter what. The real consequence of opening up the RFA market will be for the mid-tier guys whose leaving via offer sheet wouldn't return all that much pick wise. Kapanen or Johnsson, for instance, would have been very vulnerable to that if the RFA market was alive.

I think your imaginary team that has a ton of cap space, a willingness to lose 4 firsts and no potentially tricky RFA negotiations on the horizon just doesn't exist.

I agree 100% on all points.  That's why, when we switch from Speculation Land to the real world, dumping Marleau's contract doesn't make much difference one way or the other with respect to Marner.  An OS to a superstar isn't likely in the first place.

It does provide the Cap Space to sign Marner and help fill out the roster.  We will probably get both of Kap and Johsson for Marleau's Cap.

I hope so.  Still, both of those moves address the front end, which isn't where the team's biggest weakness is.  If Zaitsev really is considered a liability (which I don't entirely buy) there's going to have to be some cleverness applied to the blueline.

I don't think the d situation will be as bad as people think it will be, particularly by the time we hit the trade deadline.  I could see it winding up something like this going into next year's playoffs.

Rielly  - Healthy Dermott
Muzzin - Liljegren
Rosen - Zaitsev or new acquisition

1. They will have Muzzin for a full season.
2. I think it makes sense to pair Liljegren with an experienced guy and give him some decent minutes, so he can really improve and get confident as the year goes on. Lots of teams are giving young d-men ample ice-time these days.
3. I think Rosen will be better than people think and we won't miss Gardiner as much as people think.
4. I think they just need another legit top four guy to replace Zaitsev in the short term. Then, maybe another at some point over the next year or so, but maybe Liljegren or Sandin might prove to be that guy.

 

[princedpw]

That would certainly apply to those teams that have a pending FA at the level of Marner.  But they wouldn't be the ones tempted to do an OS anyway.

No, because as people have mentioned there was an excellent chance that the Leafs were going to match on Marner no matter what. The real consequence of opening up the RFA market will be for the mid-tier guys whose leaving via offer sheet wouldn't return all that much pick wise. Kapanen or Johnsson, for instance, would have been very vulnerable to that if the RFA market was alive.

I think your imaginary team that has a ton of cap space, a willingness to lose 4 firsts and no potentially tricky RFA negotiations on the horizon just doesn't exist.

I agree 100% on all points.  That's why, when we switch from Speculation Land to the real world, dumping Marleau's contract doesn't make much difference one way or the other with respect to Marner.  An OS to a superstar isn't likely in the first place.

It does provide the Cap Space to sign Marner and help fill out the roster.  We will probably get both of Kap and Johsson for Marleau's Cap.

I hope so.  Still, both of those moves address the front end, which isn't where the team's biggest weakness is.  If Zaitsev really is considered a liability (which I don't entirely buy) there's going to have to be some cleverness applied to the blueline.

I don't think the d situation will be as bad as people think it will be, particularly by the time we hit the trade deadline.  I could see it winding up something like this going into next year's playoffs.

Rielly  - Healthy Dermott
Muzzin - Liljegren
Rosen - Zaitsev or new acquisition

1. They will have Muzzin for a full season.
2. I think it makes sense to pair Liljegren with an experienced guy and give him some decent minutes, so he can really improve and get confident as the year goes on. Lots of teams are giving young d-men ample ice-time these days.
3. I think Rosen will be better than people think and we won't miss Gardiner as much as people think.
4. I think they just need another legit top four guy to replace Zaitsev in the short term. Then, maybe another at some point over the next year or so, but maybe Liljegren or Sandin might prove to be that guy.

Imagine, for fun!, that Muzzin (or Reilly) gets injured in October. Then we have this until Dermott gets back:

Rielly  - Holl
Rosen - Liljegren
Borgman? - Zaitsev

So, Rielly, 4 rookies, and Zaitsev. Fun times!

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

That would certainly apply to those teams that have a pending FA at the level of Marner.  But they wouldn't be the ones tempted to do an OS anyway.

No, because as people have mentioned there was an excellent chance that the Leafs were going to match on Marner no matter what. The real consequence of opening up the RFA market will be for the mid-tier guys whose leaving via offer sheet wouldn't return all that much pick wise. Kapanen or Johnsson, for instance, would have been very vulnerable to that if the RFA market was alive.

I think your imaginary team that has a ton of cap space, a willingness to lose 4 firsts and no potentially tricky RFA negotiations on the horizon just doesn't exist.

I agree 100% on all points.  That's why, when we switch from Speculation Land to the real world, dumping Marleau's contract doesn't make much difference one way or the other with respect to Marner.  An OS to a superstar isn't likely in the first place.

It does provide the Cap Space to sign Marner and help fill out the roster.  We will probably get both of Kap and Johsson for Marleau's Cap.

I hope so.  Still, both of those moves address the front end, which isn't where the team's biggest weakness is.  If Zaitsev really is considered a liability (which I don't entirely buy) there's going to have to be some cleverness applied to the blueline.

I don't think the d situation will be as bad as people think it will be, particularly by the time we hit the trade deadline.  I could see it winding up something like this going into next year's playoffs.

Rielly  - Healthy Dermott
Muzzin - Liljegren
Rosen - Zaitsev or new acquisition

1. They will have Muzzin for a full season.
2. I think it makes sense to pair Liljegren with an experienced guy and give him some decent minutes, so he can really improve and get confident as the year goes on. Lots of teams are giving young d-men ample ice-time these days.
3. I think Rosen will be better than people think and we won't miss Gardiner as much as people think.
4. I think they just need another legit top four guy to replace Zaitsev in the short term. Then, maybe another at some point over the next year or so, but maybe Liljegren or Sandin might prove to be that guy.

Imagine, for fun!, that Muzzin (or Reilly) gets injured in October. Then we have this until Dermott gets back:

Rielly  - Holl
Rosen - Liljegren
Borgman? - Zaitsev

So, Rielly, 4 rookies, and Zaitsev. Fun times!

There's also Marincin.

 

[Bonsixx]

That would certainly apply to those teams that have a pending FA at the level of Marner.  But they wouldn't be the ones tempted to do an OS anyway.

No, because as people have mentioned there was an excellent chance that the Leafs were going to match on Marner no matter what. The real consequence of opening up the RFA market will be for the mid-tier guys whose leaving via offer sheet wouldn't return all that much pick wise. Kapanen or Johnsson, for instance, would have been very vulnerable to that if the RFA market was alive.

I think your imaginary team that has a ton of cap space, a willingness to lose 4 firsts and no potentially tricky RFA negotiations on the horizon just doesn't exist.

I agree 100% on all points.  That's why, when we switch from Speculation Land to the real world, dumping Marleau's contract doesn't make much difference one way or the other with respect to Marner.  An OS to a superstar isn't likely in the first place.

It does provide the Cap Space to sign Marner and help fill out the roster.  We will probably get both of Kap and Johsson for Marleau's Cap.

I hope so.  Still, both of those moves address the front end, which isn't where the team's biggest weakness is.  If Zaitsev really is considered a liability (which I don't entirely buy) there's going to have to be some cleverness applied to the blueline.

I don't think Zaitsev goes for cheap. He played well with Muzz in the playoffs. I think we'll see Rosen and Liljegren up with the big club as our bottom pairing to start. Dermott can play the right side when he gets back. We also have Borgman on the Marlies and from the games I saw, I really liked him. He's tough, has some offensive flair and gets the puck out quickly. Sandin is a def lonshot but never say never. The kid is very smart.

Last I heard on the subject, (grain of salt, because I didn't see much of the Marlies myself) Sandin has leapt ahead of Liljegren on the prospect chart.

Sent from my SM-G950W using Tapatalk

 

[Guilt Trip]

Sandin is very good but prone to young mistakes. I've seen him play a but this year and have to say I'm impressed. Hes very snart and usually makes the right decision. Liljegren I would say is more NHL ready fron a strength point of view. Borgman I believe from the games I saw is more ready for the heavy game. He plays tough and is vert good at moving and rushing the puck.  I really wouldn't be surprised to see him and Rosen up with the Leafs. Liljegren will def get a good look at training camp and I think has the best chance outside of Rosen, who we all think will be Gardiner's replacement, because he plays the right side. Im not as worried about the Leafs as sone others. Hainsey could be an option as well if he could come cheap and Babs plays him on the 3rd pairing.
Anyway the Leafs def have some very promising D prospects.

 

[Bates]

That would certainly apply to those teams that have a pending FA at the level of Marner.  But they wouldn't be the ones tempted to do an OS anyway.

No, because as people have mentioned there was an excellent chance that the Leafs were going to match on Marner no matter what. The real consequence of opening up the RFA market will be for the mid-tier guys whose leaving via offer sheet wouldn't return all that much pick wise. Kapanen or Johnsson, for instance, would have been very vulnerable to that if the RFA market was alive.

I think your imaginary team that has a ton of cap space, a willingness to lose 4 firsts and no potentially tricky RFA negotiations on the horizon just doesn't exist.

I agree 100% on all points.  That's why, when we switch from Speculation Land to the real world, dumping Marleau's contract doesn't make much difference one way or the other with respect to Marner.  An OS to a superstar isn't likely in the first place.

It does provide the Cap Space to sign Marner and help fill out the roster.  We will probably get both of Kap and Johsson for Marleau's Cap.

I hope so.  Still, both of those moves address the front end, which isn't where the team's biggest weakness is.  If Zaitsev really is considered a liability (which I don't entirely buy) there's going to have to be some cleverness applied to the blueline.

I don't think the d situation will be as bad as people think it will be, particularly by the time we hit the trade deadline.  I could see it winding up something like this going into next year's playoffs.

Rielly  - Healthy Dermott
Muzzin - Liljegren
Rosen - Zaitsev or new acquisition

1. They will have Muzzin for a full season.
2. I think it makes sense to pair Liljegren with an experienced guy and give him some decent minutes, so he can really improve and get confident as the year goes on. Lots of teams are giving young d-men ample ice-time these days.
3. I think Rosen will be better than people think and we won't miss Gardiner as much as people think.
4. I think they just need another legit top four guy to replace Zaitsev in the short term. Then, maybe another at some point over the next year or so, but maybe Liljegren or Sandin might prove to be that guy.

Imagine, for fun!, that Muzzin (or Reilly) gets injured in October. Then we have this until Dermott gets back:

Rielly  - Holl
Rosen - Liljegren
Borgman? - Zaitsev

So, Rielly, 4 rookies, and Zaitsev. Fun times!

How is that fun?

 

[Highlander]

That would certainly apply to those teams that have a pending FA at the level of Marner.  But they wouldn't be the ones tempted to do an OS anyway.

No, because as people have mentioned there was an excellent chance that the Leafs were going to match on Marner no matter what. The real consequence of opening up the RFA market will be for the mid-tier guys whose leaving via offer sheet wouldn't return all that much pick wise. Kapanen or Johnsson, for instance, would have been very vulnerable to that if the RFA market was alive.

I think your imaginary team that has a ton of cap space, a willingness to lose 4 firsts and no potentially tricky RFA negotiations on the horizon just doesn't exist.

I agree 100% on all points.  That's why, when we switch from Speculation Land to the real world, dumping Marleau's contract doesn't make much difference one way or the other with respect to Marner.  An OS to a superstar isn't likely in the first place.

It does provide the Cap Space to sign Marner and help fill out the roster.  We will probably get both of Kap and Johsson for Marleau's Cap.

I hope so.  Still, both of those moves address the front end, which isn't where the team's biggest weakness is.  If Zaitsev really is considered a liability (which I don't entirely buy) there's going to have to be some cleverness applied to the blueline.

I don't think the d situation will be as bad as people think it will be, particularly by the time we hit the trade deadline.  I could see it winding up something like this going into next year's playoffs.

Rielly  - Healthy Dermott
Muzzin - Liljegren
Rosen - Zaitsev or new acquisition

1. They will have Muzzin for a full season.
2. I think it makes sense to pair Liljegren with an experienced guy and give him some decent minutes, so he can really improve and get confident as the year goes on. Lots of teams are giving young d-men ample ice-time these days.
3. I think Rosen will be better than people think and we won't miss Gardiner as much as people think.
4. I think they just need another legit top four guy to replace Zaitsev in the short term. Then, maybe another at some point over the next year or so, but maybe Liljegren or Sandin might prove to be that guy.

Imagine, for fun!, that Muzzin (or Reilly) gets injured in October. Then we have this until Dermott gets back:

Rielly  - Holl
Rosen - Liljegren
Borgman? - Zaitsev

So, Rielly, 4 rookies, and Zaitsev. Fun times!

How is that fun?

my usual sense of humour escapes me

 

[AvroArrow]

The likelihood of Sandin or Liljegren making the team, let alone making an impact or being top 4, is slim to none.

 

[Bullfrog]

Imagine, for fun!, that Muzzin (or Reilly) gets injured in October. Then we have this until Dermott gets back:

Rielly  - Holl
Rosen - Liljegren
Borgman? - Zaitsev

So, Rielly, 4 rookies, and Zaitsev. Fun times!

How is that fun?

Sarcasm?

 

[Highlander]

My Sunday before brunch thought....Just sign the frikken agreement already Mitch!

 

[Heroic Shrimp]

https://twitter.com/PierreVLeBrun/status/1142506591037677574

I wonder if and how much other teams will be turned off by Marner's camp in recognizing that he's negotiating in bad faith, pretending to show interest in playing for those other teams, but really just trying to get those teams to negotiate Toronto's contract for them.  For many reasons, it's a situation that I can see many GMs not having an interest in wading into.  Man, would I love it if Marner didn't get a single RFA offer.

 

[Bates]

Imagine, for fun!, that Muzzin (or Reilly) gets injured in October. Then we have this until Dermott gets back:

Rielly  - Holl
Rosen - Liljegren
Borgman? - Zaitsev

So, Rielly, 4 rookies, and Zaitsev. Fun times!

How is that fun?

Sarcasm?

Mine roo

 

[WAYNEINIONA]

https://twitter.com/PierreVLeBrun/status/1142506591037677574

I wonder if and how much other teams will be turned off by Marner's camp in recognizing that he's negotiating in bad faith, pretending to show interest in playing for those other teams, but really just trying to get those teams to negotiate Toronto's contract for them.  For many reasons, it's a situation that I can see many GMs not having an interest in wading into.  Man, would I love it if Marner didn't get a single RFA offer.

That's what I was thinking too. No interest at all would be sweet.

 

[Bullfrog]

I would imagine any team with interest in Marner would be going hard after Panarin first. It's probably in Marner's interest to let the dust settle on Panarin and then negotiate.

 

[rdowdall]

https://twitter.com/PierreVLeBrun/status/1142506591037677574

I wonder if and how much other teams will be turned off by Marner's camp in recognizing that he's negotiating in bad faith, pretending to show interest in playing for those other teams, but really just trying to get those teams to negotiate Toronto's contract for them.  For many reasons, it's a situation that I can see many GMs not having an interest in wading into.  Man, would I love it if Marner didn't get a single RFA offer.

That's what I was thinking too. No interest at all would be sweet.

I would love for that to be the case, not because I want Marner to be crushed or anything, but because it would probably speed up the process with him signing a deal with the Leafs.

However, I don't imagine that will happen.  I think that a lot of teams will take their shot with Marner.  If it doesn't pan out, oh well.  It costs them nothing to talk to him, and if they ever did manage to get him, regardless of how small of a chance there is, then I think that would be seen as a win initially by the team that gets him.  Long term it's probably a bad move though.

Which is why all this posturing is silly to me.  You have a third year player that got 94 points.  The Leafs want him here, and he wants to be here.  I don't know why the Leafs have chosen to take a hard line in the sand approach with Marner, whereas they are willing to just give Matthews whatever he wants.  In my mind they are both of equal importance and you should treat both as such.  I can maybe see them not wanting the term to line up with Matthews so that Nylander, Matthews and Marner all go to UFA status in the same year, but then add a year in, or knock it down by two, and then get the dollar figure to line up.  I think ideally they want to deal with Matthews and Nylander in the same year and Tavares and Marner in the same year.

 

[Guilt Trip]

https://twitter.com/PierreVLeBrun/status/1142506591037677574

I wonder if and how much other teams will be turned off by Marner's camp in recognizing that he's negotiating in bad faith, pretending to show interest in playing for those other teams, but really just trying to get those teams to negotiate Toronto's contract for them.  For many reasons, it's a situation that I can see many GMs not having an interest in wading into.  Man, would I love it if Marner didn't get a single RFA offer.

That's what I was thinking too. No interest at all would be sweet.

I would love for that to be the case, not because I want Marner to be crushed or anything, but because it would probably speed up the process with him signing a deal with the Leafs.

However, I don't imagine that will happen.  I think that a lot of teams will take their shot with Marner.  If it doesn't pan out, oh well.  It costs them nothing to talk to him, and if they ever did manage to get him, regardless of how small of a chance there is, then I think that would be seen as a win initially by the team that gets him.  Long term it's probably a bad move though.

Which is why all this posturing is silly to me.  You have a third year player that got 94 points.  The Leafs want him here, and he wants to be here.  I don't know why the Leafs have chosen to take a hard line in the sand approach with Marner, whereas they are willing to just give Matthews whatever he wants.  In my mind they are both of equal importance and you should treat both as such.  I can maybe see them not wanting the term to line up with Matthews so that Nylander, Matthews and Marner all go to UFA status in the same year, but then add a year in, or knock it down by two, and then get the dollar figure to line up.  I think ideally they want to deal with Matthews and Nylander in the same year and Tavares and Marner in the same year.

We have no idea how the Matthews' negotiations went. One thing we do know, it was kept quiet from the Matthews/Leafs camps. We also don't know if the Leafs are hard balling Marner. What if they've offered 10 or 11 x 8 already? Would that be unfair? By all accounts he should be coming in around 9-9.5 million. Why should the Leafs overpay if they don't have to? Marner is an exceptional player but they are not equal.

 

[Zee]

https://twitter.com/PierreVLeBrun/status/1142506591037677574

I wonder if and how much other teams will be turned off by Marner's camp in recognizing that he's negotiating in bad faith, pretending to show interest in playing for those other teams, but really just trying to get those teams to negotiate Toronto's contract for them.  For many reasons, it's a situation that I can see many GMs not having an interest in wading into.  Man, would I love it if Marner didn't get a single RFA offer.

That's what I was thinking too. No interest at all would be sweet.

I would love for that to be the case, not because I want Marner to be crushed or anything, but because it would probably speed up the process with him signing a deal with the Leafs.

However, I don't imagine that will happen.  I think that a lot of teams will take their shot with Marner.  If it doesn't pan out, oh well.  It costs them nothing to talk to him, and if they ever did manage to get him, regardless of how small of a chance there is, then I think that would be seen as a win initially by the team that gets him.  Long term it's probably a bad move though.

Which is why all this posturing is silly to me.  You have a third year player that got 94 points.  The Leafs want him here, and he wants to be here.  I don't know why the Leafs have chosen to take a hard line in the sand approach with Marner, whereas they are willing to just give Matthews whatever he wants.  In my mind they are both of equal importance and you should treat both as such.  I can maybe see them not wanting the term to line up with Matthews so that Nylander, Matthews and Marner all go to UFA status in the same year, but then add a year in, or knock it down by two, and then get the dollar figure to line up.  I think ideally they want to deal with Matthews and Nylander in the same year and Tavares and Marner in the same year.

We have no idea how the Matthews' negotiations went. One thing we do know, it was kept quiet from the Matthews/Leafs camps. We also don't know if the Leafs are hard balling Marner. What if they've offering 10 or 11 x 8 already? Would that be unfair? By all accounts he should be coming in around 9-9.5 million. Why should the Leafs overpay if they don't have to? Marner is an exceptional player but they are not equal.

He most likely wants 11.6x5 years. Highest paid winger in league history.