Nylander signs 6-year contract

[Phileas Fogg]

Elliotte should keep his speculation to himself next time... his stock in my book went way backwards during this Nylander negotiation. He knew nothing the entire time and continue to spew garbage relentlessly. His BS should be called out.

I disagree completely. Freidman is a good reporter, one of the best in the market. He made it clear that it was his speculation on Nylander being traded, not that it was fact, or coming from sources. I'll take him over just about any other in terms of insight.

 

[Phileas Fogg]

We're in trouble.

https://www.thestar.com/sports/breakaway_blog/2018/12/04/nhl-s--83-million-cap-could-crunch-maple-leafs-in-2019-20.html

Kapanen and Johnsson on the attached link are slated at 2.5M and 1.5M... yeah right.

I really don't think these two guesses are that crazy. I wouldn't be surprised if both are signed to 1-year deals just so the team can get past the Marleau deal and then they'll get raises after that. The Leafs will actually be able to sort of use their lack of cap space in their favour in these negotiations. They can hold a strong stance and literally just say "this is all we can afford to give you right now, take it or leave it".

I wonder if either might be the target of other teams to offer sheet with some term and a little bit of an overpay? Kapanen at 5 x $3.5 would probably be something the Leafs would have a very hard time matching and but wouldn't cost the poacher much at all and would likely still be a bargain.

Yeah, maybe. But I figure if someone is going to buck convention and make other GMs look sideways, might as well do it for a bigger fish, no?

 

[Hobbes]

We're in trouble.

https://www.thestar.com/sports/breakaway_blog/2018/12/04/nhl-s--83-million-cap-could-crunch-maple-leafs-in-2019-20.html

Kapanen and Johnsson on the attached link are slated at 2.5M and 1.5M... yeah right.

I really don't think these two guesses are that crazy. I wouldn't be surprised if both are signed to 1-year deals just so the team can get past the Marleau deal and then they'll get raises after that. The Leafs will actually be able to sort of use their lack of cap space in their favour in these negotiations. They can hold a strong stance and literally just say "this is all we can afford to give you right now, take it or leave it".

I wonder if either might be the target of other teams to offer sheet with some term and a little bit of an overpay? Kapanen at 5 x $3.5 would probably be something the Leafs would have a very hard time matching and but wouldn't cost the poacher much at all and would likely still be a bargain.

Yeah, maybe. But I figure if someone is going to buck convention and make other GMs look sideways, might as well do it for a bigger fish, no?

Leafs would match anything non-insane for Matthews or Marner rather than let them walk so yes, if the goal was to further screw up the Leafs' cap situation that's the way to go.

With Kapanen I could see a team (Carolina?) making an offer in the 5x.35 or 5x4 range that would be a bit on the high side but not terrible...one that the Leafs really can't match because they won't have the room.

The Leafs could see a lot of their really good support players become potential targets for offer sheets that they really can't match yet aren't gross overpayments by the poaching teams.

 

[cabber24]

Elliotte should keep his speculation to himself next time... his stock in my book went way backwards during this Nylander negotiation. He knew nothing the entire time and continue to spew garbage relentlessly. His BS should be called out.

I disagree completely. Freidman is a good reporter, one of the best in the market. He made it clear that it was his speculation on Nylander being traded, not that it was fact, or coming from sources. I'll take him over just about any other in terms of insight.

I like Freidman too but he was dead wrong about Nylander the entire time. He was talking in circles, it made me cringe to watch.

 

[Kin]

I don't recall Friedman ever saying anything about Nylander that was concrete enough to be "dead wrong".

 

[princedpw]

We're in trouble.

https://www.thestar.com/sports/breakaway_blog/2018/12/04/nhl-s--83-million-cap-could-crunch-maple-leafs-in-2019-20.html

Kapanen and Johnsson on the attached link are slated at 2.5M and 1.5M... yeah right.

I really don't think these two guesses are that crazy. I wouldn't be surprised if both are signed to 1-year deals just so the team can get past the Marleau deal and then they'll get raises after that. The Leafs will actually be able to sort of use their lack of cap space in their favour in these negotiations. They can hold a strong stance and literally just say "this is all we can afford to give you right now, take it or leave it".

I wonder if either might be the target of other teams to offer sheet with some term and a little bit of an overpay? Kapanen at 5 x $3.5 would probably be something the Leafs would have a very hard time matching and but wouldn't cost the poacher much at all and would likely still be a bargain.

Yeah, maybe. But I figure if someone is going to buck convention and make other GMs look sideways, might as well do it for a bigger fish, no?

Leafs would match anything non-insane for Matthews or Marner rather than let them walk so yes, if the goal was to further screw up the Leafs' cap situation that's the way to go.

With Kapanen I could see a team (Carolina?) making an offer in the 5x.35 or 5x4 range that would be a bit on the high side but not terrible...one that the Leafs really can't match because they won't have the room.

The Leafs could see a lot of their really good support players become potential targets for offer sheets that they really can't match yet aren't gross overpayments by the poaching teams.

I agree that Kappy and Johnsson might be great offer sheet targets.

I posted another roster in the armchair GM thread. A difference was that it expects Matthews/Marner to come in at 11 and 8.5. Perhaps you think that is too cheap.

The star?s roster could be optimized though:

- Oz at 2.5 is too much for what he provides. I think our 3rd pairing D needs to be sub 1 million ? a rookie like Sandin or a Marlie. So we can save 1.5 million there.  That allows us to pay Kappy 4 million.

- I would trade brown and put another rookie in his spot, saving another ~1+ million. That allows us to pay Johnsson ~2.5.

But yes, it is tight and they are still offer sheet targets.  Leafs get 1st + 3rd if cap gets a ~4.1 million offer from someone else.

We really need to dump Marleau to give us breathing room + a passable defense.

 

[princedpw]

We're in trouble.

https://www.thestar.com/sports/breakaway_blog/2018/12/04/nhl-s--83-million-cap-could-crunch-maple-leafs-in-2019-20.html

Kapanen and Johnsson on the attached link are slated at 2.5M and 1.5M... yeah right.

I really don't think these two guesses are that crazy. I wouldn't be surprised if both are signed to 1-year deals just so the team can get past the Marleau deal and then they'll get raises after that. The Leafs will actually be able to sort of use their lack of cap space in their favour in these negotiations. They can hold a strong stance and literally just say "this is all we can afford to give you right now, take it or leave it".

I wonder if either might be the target of other teams to offer sheet with some term and a little bit of an overpay? Kapanen at 5 x $3.5 would probably be something the Leafs would have a very hard time matching and but wouldn't cost the poacher much at all and would likely still be a bargain.

Yeah, maybe. But I figure if someone is going to buck convention and make other GMs look sideways, might as well do it for a bigger fish, no?

Leafs would match anything non-insane for Matthews or Marner rather than let them walk so yes, if the goal was to further screw up the Leafs' cap situation that's the way to go.

I think an offer sheet to Mathews or Marner (if accepted and the leafs let him go) is a situation in which pretty much everyone loses ? The player, the leafs and the other team.  The leafs lose cup contention but the player goes to a team likely to suck long term ? it is hard to build a winner without any first round picks for the foreseeable future.

 

[Kin]

I think when it comes to offer sheets one of the things that we tend to do is sort of over estimate both the worth of the guys on the Leafs but also the value other teams will see in "sticking it" to the Leafs.

Take the idea of someone offer sheeting Kapanen to a 5 year/20 million dollar deal. How many teams are out there who:

A) Don't have cap issues of their own
B) Don't have a Kapanen equivalent sort of guy around
C) Feel like it'd be a good investment for a guy whose hot start is both almost certainly a major product of his linemates and the weird scoring boost

There really are good reasons we don't see offer sheets. The idea that Kapanen or Johnsson are important enough players to junk all that seems pretty far fetched to me.

 

[herman]

https://twitter.com/arvi/status/1072487566425903104

I'm pretty okay with former players entering the media space. I'm very okay with Ray Ferraro slapping down idiocy.

Edit: So weird for the mainstream media to be collectively annoyed at Nylander for generating them a bajillion clicks in the first two months of the season.

 

[Bullfrog]

I like Ferraro. Provides a good mix of media-savvy with practical experience. I'm surprised Jennifer Hedger double-down on the whole "why not send him to the Marlies?" angle. Ferraro's response was good: "and what, play Freddie the Goat more?" Seriously, Nylander at 50% is 100% better than Gauthier.

 

[TimKerr]

I like Ferraro. Provides a good mix of media-savvy with practical experience. I'm surprised Jennifer Hedger double-down on the whole "why not send him to the Marlies?" angle. Ferraro's response was good: "and what, play Freddie the Goat more?" Seriously, Nylander at 50% is 100% better than Gauthier.

I often wonder. Do any radio/TV hosts mean anything they say or do they just take a contrarian view in order to get clicks?
How can any rational person expect Nylander to be back to NHL shape after two games?

 

[bustaheims]

When Jeff O'Neill's take is better than yours, you're in trouble. Yikes.

 

[ZBBM]

I like Ferraro. Provides a good mix of media-savvy with practical experience. I'm surprised Jennifer Hedger double-down on the whole "why not send him to the Marlies?" angle. Ferraro's response was good: "and what, play Freddie the Goat more?" Seriously, Nylander at 50% is 100% better than Gauthier.

I often wonder. Do any radio/TV hosts mean anything they say or do they just take a contrarian view in order to get clicks?
How can any rational person expect Nylander to be back to NHL shape after two games?

I've never listened to sportstalk radio before, but I clicked on this because I do like Ferraro a lot.

I could only stand to listen for about 3 minutes.  It's pretty clear what the answer to your question is.

 

[herman]

If you think the hosts had bad takes, try listening to the callers that dial in.

 

[Bender]

If you think the hosts had bad takes, try listening to the callers that dial in.

And the hot take for toughness is just so idiotic. The Bruins beat the Leafs by playing and executing a better overall game, not by being tough guys. How many defensive lapses did the Leafs have because they need more Colton Orr's?

 

[Zee]

If you think the hosts had bad takes, try listening to the callers that dial in.

And the hot take for toughness is just so idiotic. The Bruins beat the Leafs by playing and executing a better overall game, not by being tough guys. How many defensive lapses did the Leafs have because they need more Colton Orr's?

I'm not concerned by the last 2 games.  It's the ebb and flows of a season.  The team plays really well for stretches and really poorly for other stretches.  Right now they're in a poor play stretch, but hopefully they can get out of it soon.

 

[herman]

If you think the hosts had bad takes, try listening to the callers that dial in.

And the hot take for toughness is just so idiotic. The Bruins beat the Leafs by playing and executing a better overall game, not by being tough guys. How many defensive lapses did the Leafs have because they need more Colton Orr's?

I'm not concerned by the last 2 games.  It's the ebb and flows of a season.  The team plays really well for stretches and really poorly for other stretches.  Right now they're in a poor play stretch, but hopefully they can get out of it soon.

https://theathletic.com/705404/2018/12/10/bourne-mike-babcocks-biggest-challenge-is-convincing-the-leafs-that-they-cant-win-on-talent-alone/

For those that can't/won't read this, Justin Bourne addresses what usually happens to a good team that a) thinks it's great*; and b) is getting back top tier players.

There is a natural sitting back up and down the line up as players expecting the returning star (or two in this case) to carry so much of the load tend to ease off the gas a bit, especially when you look at the lineup card of the opposing team and see a mish mash of AHLers.

In 2002 when the Leafs gritted out back-to-back 7 game series wins against the Islanders and senators, they lost Sundin partway through Round 1 after playing 3 games on a fractured wrist. He made a nigh miraculous return for the Carolina series and the Leafs immediately deflated.

Intensity and game speed are not switches to be turned on at will. Matthews and Nylander being out at the same time put a lot of the depth players in position to impress. It's going to take time for them to ramp back up; they're contributing but not quite to their best and certainly not in sync with the rest of the lineup yet. Honestly, I think it'll take nearly a month. The important thing is for them to be fully synced and healthy for April/May.

* It is my philosophy that a really good team needs to eat a few smack downs in the regular season so that complacency doesn't set in. I think that's why Babcock plays Andersen so much (so the team doesn't think this will just be a cake walk to throw the backup against), even down the stretch with the playoff berth locked up. It's very difficult to get a team to pull their hardest when there's no one chasing (or to be chased).

 

[Zee]

If you think the hosts had bad takes, try listening to the callers that dial in.

And the hot take for toughness is just so idiotic. The Bruins beat the Leafs by playing and executing a better overall game, not by being tough guys. How many defensive lapses did the Leafs have because they need more Colton Orr's?

I'm not concerned by the last 2 games.  It's the ebb and flows of a season.  The team plays really well for stretches and really poorly for other stretches.  Right now they're in a poor play stretch, but hopefully they can get out of it soon.

https://theathletic.com/705404/2018/12/10/bourne-mike-babcocks-biggest-challenge-is-convincing-the-leafs-that-they-cant-win-on-talent-alone/

For those that can't/won't read this, Justin Bourne addresses what usually happens to a good team that a) thinks it's great*; and b) is getting back top tier players.

There is a natural sitting back up and down the line up as players expecting the returning star (or two in this case) to carry so much of the load tend to ease off the gas a bit, especially when you look at the lineup card of the opposing team and see a mish mash of AHLers.

In 2002 when the Leafs gritted out back-to-back 7 game series wins against the Islanders and senators, they lost Sundin partway through Round 1 after playing 3 games on a fractured wrist. He made a nigh miraculous return for the Carolina series and the Leafs immediately deflated.

Intensity and game speed are not switches to be turned on at will. Matthews and Nylander being out at the same time put a lot of the depth players in position to impress. It's going to take time for them to ramp back up; they're contributing but not quite to their best and certainly not in sync with the rest of the lineup yet. Honestly, I think it'll take nearly a month. The important thing is for them to be fully synced and healthy for April/May.

* It is my philosophy that a really good team needs to eat a few smack downs in the regular season so that complacency doesn't set in. I think that's why Babcock plays Andersen so much (so the team doesn't think this will just be a cake walk to throw the backup against), even down the stretch with the playoff berth locked up. It's very difficult to get a team to pull their hardest when there's no one chasing (or to be chased).

I read the Bourne article, it was pretty good.  Just addressing your last point about Babcock playing Andersen so often -- I think it's counterproductive to showing the Leafs they have to play hard all the time.  Let me explain, when Andersen is in and playing in top form, he regularly makes difficult saves look routine, so the team thinks they're playing well and are actually better than they really are.  If you have a lesser goalie in there, letting in difficult chances, maybe the team realizes it's got to collectively play better.  Look at Saturday, Andersen had a subpar performance, along with most of the Leafs on the ice, and they got hammered.  If Andersen stands on his head that game, and the Leafs eke out a win, will they feel even remotely the same way?  Nope.

 

[herman]

Just addressing your last point about Babcock playing Andersen so often -- I think it's counterproductive to showing the Leafs they have to play hard all the time.  Let me explain, when Andersen is in and playing in top form, he regularly makes difficult saves look routine, so the team thinks they're playing well and are actually better than they really are.  If you have a lesser goalie in there, letting in difficult chances, maybe the team realizes it's got to collectively play better.  Look at Saturday, Andersen had a subpar performance, along with most of the Leafs on the ice, and they got hammered.  If Andersen stands on his head that game, and the Leafs eke out a win, will they feel even remotely the same way?  Nope.

I'm a bit mixed on this, because having a goalie let in a bunch of softies early on generally means your team is now taking riskier risks to generate opportunity which also means your structure is now the shape of a poop emoji.

In any case, this team is still fairly young at the core and needs to learn how to balance when to press and when to maintain their mark. They know they can outscore a lot of their problems and it does make them a bit cocky; I don't mind the coaching staff pulling the reins at times to try to make them a bit more Babcocky instead.

 

[Guilt Trip]

When Jeff O'Neill's take is better than yours, you're in trouble. Yikes.

I like O'Neill. He's def entertaining. I absolutely loved Ferraro calling out Hayes and calling him and fan boy for his take on Nylander. That was a beauty..