Of Nonis, Babcock & who the heck is going to be running this asylum on draft day

[GhostofPotvin29]

Whether we want to believe it or not Phaneuf salary is average for a defensemen of his caliber. He will be traded in summer and we will get a good return. Comparing him to Matt Stajan is a mis-justice. (I like Stajan when he played here)

Offence is a forte of his or was. Since his first full season in Toronto, 2010-11, he's averaged a ranking of 33rd among NHL dmen.

This will be familiar to some, but to expect similar offensive production as his Calgary years is unrealistic because he isn't used the same way as he was in Calgary.  In Calgary in his first few seasons it was post-lockout when the NHL was calling tons of obstruction calls and penalties skyrocketed.  Phaneuf was averaging around 5:00 PER GAME on the PP.

And this is what the PP was for Calgary back then:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GmQ8dhO7Ves[/youtube]

As a result in his first 4 seasons he never had less than 240 shots on goal.  In a full season for the Leafs he has never eclipsed 202 shots on goal (2011-12 where he finished 12th in D scoring). 

Since he's come to Toronto they've never utilized him on the PP in the same way Calgary did - Phaneuf has almost always been on the left side to facilitate passes off the half-boards with Kessel.  If he were playing his weak side he'd be set up for many more one-timer opportunities with the D to D pass.  As it is now, any pass from the other D needs two touches (which is okay if you have a super quick release like Franson, less so for most others).

A team could likely get more offensive production out of Phaneuf if more of the PP opportunities set him up for shots on net, but the Leafs PP never really has and his offensive numbers go down.  His first 3 seasons in the league he had double-digit PP goals and in Toronto his best has been 7 PPG in that 202-shot season.

I don't think his offense is declining, he's just not given the same opportunities in Toronto as in Calgary.  That 2011-12 season suggests that if he gets more shot opportunities his offensive production goes up.

 

[cw]

It makes more sense to me to take a bad contract back then retain salary/cap hit. At least with a bad contract, you can bury it in the minors and get a $925K(?) savings off the cap hit or possibly be able to trade it. Depends on the actual value of course.

I'm terrified of 6 years of dead cap space. I'd rather take as many bad 2-3 year contracts a team can throw at us than that. Like you said, it wouldn't be impossible to move those contracts at a later date. It would be impossible though to get out of the retained salary.

For sure, for example take the salary from Detroit instead of retaining salary. Weiss, Mantha and a 2nd?

Let's say my estimate above for argument's sake is roughly the way it is. The Leafs need to eat $1.5-2 mil/yr of Phaneuf's deal ($9-12 mil over 6 years) in order to get something of value back for a $5.5 mil/yr fairly paid dman (after the "discount for overpaid contract").

Weiss is earning $4.9 for three more years but he's only worth maybe $1-1.5 or so now as a 4th line center who can provide depth to the scoring lines. The Wings would need to eat roughly $3.4-3.9 x 3 yrs = $10.2-11.7 mil to get something trivial in terms of 4th line talent back for Weiss.

Whatever Phaneuf is being overpaid is roughly a dollars saw off if the Leafs take Weiss back.

Weiss is close to worthless in terms of talent now (in my opinion). So if the Leafs took Weiss' deal back, they're more or less trading a low #1/high #2 dman who is proven, signed, sealed and delivered for 6 years.

I think the Leafs would be fair to ask for a good prospect (like Mantha who I don't know) and maybe more (like a decent pick) for that deal - because they've squared up the money by eating Weiss' deal.

Weiss' deal is over in 3 years so it won't stop them from seriously contending because it will be gone before they've rebuilt.

Hopefully, that clarifies my position on Phaneuf's worth. As I've always tried to maintain, he's worth something considerably more than a token pick if they straighten up the money.

 

[cw]

For me it's not about how much he's overpaid right now, it's about how much he'll be overpaid in the 2nd half of the deal. I just don't see his 30s being kind to him.

Neither do I. I expect that would go for most NHL GMs who realize the guys who pay the price physically do not tend to last as long or are unable to play that way deep into their 30s. Some of them may manage to hang around a while but they're not the same player. Columbus is very likely to find that out with Clarkson.

 

[Kin]

I think the Leafs would be fair to ask for a good prospect (like Mantha who I don't know) and maybe more (like a decent pick) for that deal - because they've squared up the money by eating Weiss' deal.

Fair maybe but it's pretty hard to say that's what Phaneuf is legitimately worth when that's more or less what's been reported as the deal Detroit turned down.

 

[cw]

That's why it's going to be tough to trade Phaneuf. It's not just about his price, it's about how he stacks up to options that would be cheaper in terms of salary and assets.

.. and risk.

Absolutely.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Neither do I. I expect that would go for most NHL GMs who realize the guys who pay the price physically do not tend to last as long or are unable to play that way deep into their 30s. Some of them may manage to hang around a while but they're not the same player. Columbus is very likely to find that out with Clarkson.

And that's where I have a problem with your Weiss scenario above. They may be squared up for the duration of Weiss' contract, but there will still be 3 years after that where Detroit isn't getting any relief on Dion's contract and it will be during the years where they'll need the relief the most. That's why I think we only get real value back if we take Weiss AND eat salary.

 

[ZBBM]

Neither do I. I expect that would go for most NHL GMs who realize the guys who pay the price physically do not tend to last as long or are unable to play that way deep into their 30s. Some of them may manage to hang around a while but they're not the same player. Columbus is very likely to find that out with Clarkson.

And that's where I have a problem with your Weiss scenario above. They may be squared up for the duration of Weiss' contract, but there will still be 3 years after that where Detroit isn't getting any relief on Dion's contract and it will be during the years where they'll need the relief the most. That's why I think we only get real value back if we take Weiss AND eat salary.

Dude, you cleared 10000 posts.

 

[cw]

I think the Leafs would be fair to ask for a good prospect (like Mantha who I don't know) and maybe more (like a decent pick) for that deal - because they've squared up the money by eating Weiss' deal.

Fair maybe but it's pretty hard to say that's what Phaneuf is legitimately worth when that's more or less what's been reported as the deal Detroit turned down.

It was at the deadline. Clock ticking. Had to make a decision. etc.

We don't know how close they got but it would appear from all the reports that had a pretty lengthy discussion - so they had something of substance to talk about - a deal like that seems plausible.

Now, it could be they were just trying to pick Nonis' pocket as he flounders to save himself because he knows he's likely gonna get nuked unless he can pulled a few more rabbits out of his hat (which he was unable to do - and maybe he sniffed that out).

But low balls are often quick. These two seemed to have a fairly lengthy debate.

And as I pointed out above, Phaneuf is a low #1 or high #2 guy -roughly. He's got some playing value if you can get the money straight. I think the Leafs position that they should get something back if they take on some of the salary is a very fair and reasonable one. If the Wings won't do it, maybe someone else will near the draft.

 

[cw]

Neither do I. I expect that would go for most NHL GMs who realize the guys who pay the price physically do not tend to last as long or are unable to play that way deep into their 30s. Some of them may manage to hang around a while but they're not the same player. Columbus is very likely to find that out with Clarkson.

And that's where I have a problem with your Weiss scenario above. They may be squared up for the duration of Weiss' contract, but there will still be 3 years after that where Detroit isn't getting any relief on Dion's contract and it will be during the years where they'll need the relief the most. That's why I think we only get real value back if we take Weiss AND eat salary.

I can see some consideration for that risk.

But the cap will be up those future years. The Wings can get creative and put him on LTIR if he's physically broken, trade him or buy him out.

So they're not completely beat.

And they're getting a nice cap relief for the next three years as well - while they're looking competetive.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

Dude, you cleared 10000 posts.

Woah, I meant to keep an eye out for that and make it more special! I suppose expressing doubts about Phaneuf will have to do.

 

[Kin]

It was at the deadline. Clock ticking. Had to make a decision. etc.

We don't know how close they got but it would appear from all the reports that had a pretty lengthy discussion - so they had something of substance to talk about - a deal like that seems plausible.

Well, except virtually everyone agrees that the Leafs were shopping Phaneuf pretty hard. So the lengthy conversation could have just been the Leafs coming back to them again and again with different scenarios and the Wings saying no to each one. The last report I heard was that the Leafs got turned down on Phaneuf(with 2 million in salary retained) for Weiss, Mantha and a first. I think it's safe to say that they would have opened with trying to shift Phaneuf straight up for prospects and picks and to get from there to that reported deal, that Detroit still apparently turned down, is a pretty solid sign that Toronto was a motivated seller and motivated sellers will try to keep you on the line.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I can see some consideration for that risk.

But the cap will be up those future years. The Wings can get creative and put him on LTIR if he's physically broken, trade him or buy him out.

So they're not completely beat.

And they're getting a nice cap relief for the next three years as well - while they're looking competetive.

That's true. I guess the way I see it is taking Weiss back in the deal makes Phaneuf tradeable, we can get some value back but not much. Lets say for sake of conversation a 2nd round pick. If we take Phaneuf back and eat salary, it makes Phaneuf appealing and we get more value back. Say a 1st instead of a 2nd. Something like that.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I think the problem with the Detroit talks is that the Wings just aren't willing to move Mantha (or Larkin). And I definitely can't blame them. If Toronto starts looking at their next tier of prospects then the ball can probably actually start rolling. But Mantha/Larkin are non-starters.

 

[cw]

It was at the deadline. Clock ticking. Had to make a decision. etc.

We don't know how close they got but it would appear from all the reports that had a pretty lengthy discussion - so they had something of substance to talk about - a deal like that seems plausible.

Well, except virtually everyone agrees that the Leafs were shopping Phaneuf pretty hard. So the lengthy conversation could have just been the Leafs coming back to them again and again with different scenarios and the Wings saying no to each one. The last report I heard was that the Leafs got turned down on Phaneuf(with 2 million in salary retained) for Weiss, Mantha and a first. I think it's safe to say that they would have opened with trying to shift Phaneuf straight up for prospects and picks and to get from there to that reported deal, that Detroit still apparently turned down, is a pretty solid sign that Toronto was a motivated seller and motivated sellers will try to keep you on the line.

The sense I got was it was either:
eat $2 mil/yr
or
take back Weiss

and then do that for the prospect.

Think about why that makes sense:

If the Leafs took Weiss plus ate $2 mil/yr, the Wings would be asking the Leafs eat $6.9 mil/yr for 3 years of Phaneuf's deal. Basically the Wings would be getting Phaneuf for zero additional Cap dollars straight up for Weiss in the first three years plus $2 mil discount for the final 3 years. That's a crazy giveaway in my opinion.

Effectively, that asks the Leafs to provide the Wings with Phaneuf for $15 mil over six years - because Weiss is close to useless now. I'd hang up the phone in a hurry. Makes no sense or is so absurd.

That's why I feel the report that said the Leafs chatted about $2 mil/yr OR take back Weiss made more sense. It's a lot closer to reality in terms of fair value.

 

[GhostofPotvin29]

I think the problem with the Detroit talks is that the Wings just aren't willing to move Mantha (or Larkin). And I definitely can't blame them. If Toronto starts looking at their next tier of prospects then the ball can probably actually start rolling. But Mantha/Larkin are non-starters.

I'd ask for Sproul.

 

[CarltonTheBear]

I think the problem with the Detroit talks is that the Wings just aren't willing to move Mantha (or Larkin). And I definitely can't blame them. If Toronto starts looking at their next tier of prospects then the ball can probably actually start rolling. But Mantha/Larkin are non-starters.

I'd ask for Sproul.

I don't know much about the Wings prospects, but Teemu Pulkkinen is 23 and absolutely tearing up the AHL right now. Could be another Tatar/Nyquist.

 

[cw]

I can see some consideration for that risk.

But the cap will be up those future years. The Wings can get creative and put him on LTIR if he's physically broken, trade him or buy him out.

So they're not completely beat.

And they're getting a nice cap relief for the next three years as well - while they're looking competetive.

That's true. I guess the way I see it is taking Weiss back in the deal makes Phaneuf tradeable, we can get some value back but not much. Lets say for sake of conversation a 2nd round pick. If we take Phaneuf back and eat salary, it makes Phaneuf appealing and we get more value back. Say a 1st instead of a 2nd. Something like that.

Taking Weiss back also makes Bozak more tradeable. Because Weiss can provide depth while the youngsters get up to speed.

Of course, I'd like to know the results of the lottery before I pull the trigger on getting Weiss now ... because if they were to win the lottery .... 

 

[cw]

I think the problem with the Detroit talks is that the Wings just aren't willing to move Mantha (or Larkin). And I definitely can't blame them. If Toronto starts looking at their next tier of prospects then the ball can probably actually start rolling. But Mantha/Larkin are non-starters.

I saw media reports that effect and I don't blame them either.

The Wings do not do a lot of trades ... they like to bring their kids along. They hold them back and get better price performance.

 

[LuncheonMeat]

For me it's not about how much he's overpaid right now, it's about how much he'll be overpaid in the 2nd half of the deal. I just don't see his 30s being kind to him.

Neither do I. I expect that would go for most NHL GMs who realize the guys who pay the price physically do not tend to last as long or are unable to play that way deep into their 30s. Some of them may manage to hang around a while but they're not the same player. Columbus is very likely to find that out with Clarkson.

They did last night as he left the game against the Caps with an injury. 

 

[Kin]

Think about why that makes sense:

If the Leafs took Weiss plus ate $2 mil/yr, the Wings would be asking the Leafs eat $6.9 mil/yr for 3 years of Phaneuf's deal. Basically the Wings would be getting Phaneuf for zero additional Cap dollars straight up for Weiss in the first three years plus $2 mil discount for the final 3 years. That's a crazy giveaway in my opinion.

Effectively, that asks the Leafs to provide the Wings with Phaneuf for $15 mil over six years - because Weiss is close to useless now. I'd hang up the phone in a hurry. Makes no sense or is so absurd.

That's why I feel the report that said the Leafs chatted about $2 mil/yr OR take back Weiss made more sense. It's a lot closer to reality in terms of fair value.

Well, except you're ignoring the more important aspect of that which is Mantha and the 1st. If the Leafs had traded Phaneuf straight up for Mantha and a 1st yesterday I'd have been thrilled. That's an awesome return. That, to my mind, is a no-brainer if you're looking to move Phaneuf.

If it's Phaenuf for Weiss, Mantha and a 1st, I'm still thrilled. Weiss is immaterial. He's a warm body who realistically won't be on the cap when the Leafs are competitive again. Admittedly it's not my money but from a hockey perspective? I'm A-1 on board there.

So that's why I believe the report I mentioned. Weiss, Mantha and a 1st plus retaining the salary is the point at which I, as a fan, start to think that there's reason for both teams to not be thrilled with it and I think when you're theorizing about potential trades you have to achieve that sort of "Well, I'd still do it but with reservations" point where you're not breaking your arm high-fiving people.